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Making more intelligent bets Amsterdam 29 03 17

This is a presentation on how governments, companies and cities are using foresight and insight to place better future growth bets. Linking together recent research on radical innovation from and some of the key insights from the Future Agenda project, it aims to share views, stretch thinking and stimulate debate on areas of future focus and how best to deliver. It is being presented first on 29 March in Amsterdam

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Making more intelligent bets Amsterdam 29 03 17

  1. 1. Making More Intelligent Bets Insights on Future Innova0on Opportuni0es 29 March 2017 The world’s leading open foresight program
  2. 2. Foresight and Insight Many see that beCer foresight and insight are pivotal capabili0es that enable leading companies to both make more intelligent bets and successfully scale them to have major global impact Foresight and Insight Collabora0on and Sharing Incuba0on not Isola0on Characteris5cs of Bolder Innova5on
  3. 3. Inspira0on
  4. 4. Predic0on
  5. 5. Roadmaps
  6. 6. Alternate Paths
  7. 7. Obscurity
  8. 8. Making Innova0on Bets
  9. 9. Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beCer prepared for the future and see new opportuni0es early.
  10. 10. Shell GameChanger | Technology Futures 2004/7
  11. 11. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program. Run as a global dialogue across all con0nents, it accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so we can all be beCer informed and so s0mulate innova0on.
  12. 12. Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
  13. 13. 2015 Event Loca0ons
  14. 14. Everything Connected Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: everything that can benefit from a connec0on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec0vely but are concerned about the security of the informa0on that flows.
  15. 15. Imbalanced Popula5on Growth A growing popula0on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra0on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra0os challenge many.
  16. 16. Key Resource Constraints Economic, physical and poli0cal shortages of key resources increase and drive increasing tension between and within countries. As we exceed the Earth’s natural thresholds, food and water receive as much focus as oil and gas.
  17. 17. ShiSing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shiaing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali0es of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.
  18. 18. Affordable Healthcare The escala0ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori0es.
  19. 19. Air Quality Rising air pollu0on in many ci0es is killing people and becomes a visible catalyst for changing mind-sets and policies across health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.
  20. 20. Autonomous Vehicles The shia to fully autonomous transport is an evolu0on via truck platoons on highways and small urban delivery pods. Connected cars create the network and test the technologies for the eventual revolu0onary driverless experience.
  21. 21. Urban Obesity Mass urbanisa0on, reduced ac0vity and poor diets are accelera0ng the rise of obesity. Levels of obesity in most ci0es are growing fast and the associated healthcare burden will soon account for 5% of global GDP.
  22. 22. Data Ownership Individuals recognize the value of their digital shadows, privacy agents curate clients’ data sets while personal data stores give us transparent control of our informa0on: We retain more ownership of our data and opt to share it.
  23. 23. The Changing Nature of Privacy As privacy is a public issue, more interna0onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between protec0on, security, privacy and public good is increasingly poli0cal.
  24. 24. Truth and Illusion The Internet has democra0sed knowledge and changed the nature of who we trust and why. As confidence in large organisa0ons declines the search for trustworthy alterna0ves evolves. What we believe is changing how we behave.
  25. 25. Educa5on Revolu5on Broader access to improved educa0on acts as a major catalyst for empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conflict. We need an educa0on system fit for the digital revolu0on.
  26. 26. Rising Youth Unemployment With unemployment rates over 50% in some na0ons, access to work is a rising barrier. Especially across North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe, a lost genera0on of 100m young people fails to gain from global growth.
  27. 27. Shrinking Middle While the global middle class grows, in the West increasing inequality for some drives a rela0ve decline in middle-income popula0ons. Coupled with the erosion of secure jobs, the US in par0cular sees a steadily shrinking middle.
  28. 28. Accelera5ng Displacement Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and poli0cal elites unable or unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra0on to the North. Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.
  29. 29. Built-in Flexibility The path to a connected, accessible and distributed infrastructure is fraught with complex, costly and risky issues: Upgrading and repurposing systems to make them more open plus on-going maintenance need significant resources.
  30. 30. Flooded Ci5es The vast majority of our ci0es are not prepared for flooding. Many districts and households can no longer get flood insurance and are in jeopardy. It’s going to get worse before it gets beCer.
  31. 31. Plas5c Oceans There are increasing high levels of man-made pollu0on in many of the world’s seas and liCle actually disappears. By 2050 there will be more plas0c than fish in the world’s oceans.
  32. 32. Human Touch As service provision and consump0on becomes ever more digital, automated and algorithmic, those brands that can offer more emo0onal engagement and human-to-human contact become increasingly aCrac0ve.
  33. 33. Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re0rements. Flexible working prac0ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con0nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.
  34. 34. Africa Growth With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of the African con0nent and its resources. However, un0l recently, only some have seen it as the growth market that it is fast becoming.
  35. 35. Declining Government Influence Na0onal governments’ ability to lead change comes under greater pressure from both above and below - mul0na0onal organisa0ons increasingly set the rules while ci0zens trust and support local and network based ac0ons.
  36. 36. Eco-Civilisa5on Over the past 40 years China has grown apace, mostly without concern for long-term environmental impacts. However, now faced with major challenges, a bright light of sustainable development is emerging.
  37. 37. Standards Driving Trade Interna0onal regula0on is progressively aimed at freeing up trade and making it simpler and less bureaucra0c – but there are a number of agreements, standards and protocols that some are seeing as increasingly constraining.
  38. 38. Digital Money Cash con0nues to be gradually replaced by digital money, providing consumers with more convenience and choice – and organisa0ons with lower cost transac0ons. Wider adop0on enables new offers to proliferate.
  39. 39. Full Cost Increasing transparency of society’s reliance on nature, intensify requirements for business to pay the true cost of the resources provided by ‘natural capital’ and so compensate for their nega0ve impact on society.
  40. 40. Speed to Scale Greater global connec0vity, growing consumer wealth and broader reach all combine to accelerate the 0me to 1bn customers and a $10bn valua0on for start-ups and new corporate ventures alike.
  41. 41. Some Future Innova5on Opportuni5es
  42. 42. Minimising Food Waste 30-50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump0on and could feed another 3 billion. Op0mising distribu0on and storage in developing countries and enabling beCer consumer informa0on in others could solve this.
  43. 43. Op5mising Last Mile Delivery Seamless, integrated and shared last-mile delivery replaces inefficient compe00on and duplica0on of goods distribu0on. Greater efficiency in moving things is as important as in moving people and so a major focus for innova0on.
  44. 44. Energy Storage Storage, and par0cularly electricity storage, is the missing piece in the renewables jigsaw. If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrifica0on of the transport industry.
  45. 45. Building Data Marketplaces Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything that is informa0on is represented in a new data marketplace.
  46. 46. Governance of Machines Automa0on spreads beyond trading and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and smarter algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
  47. 47. Deeper Collabora5on Partnerships shia to become more dynamic, long-term, democra0sed, mul0-party collabora0ons. Compe0tor alliances and wider public par0cipa0on drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe0c collabora0on.
  48. 48. Organisa5on 3.0 New forms of flaCer, project-based, collabora0ve, virtual, informal organisa0ons dominate - enabled by technology and a mobile workforce. As such the nature of work and the role of the organisa0on blurs.
  49. 49. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix