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TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
THE FUTURE OF WORK
AND SKILLS DEVELOPMENT
An Initial Perspective
The Future of Work and Skills Development
An Initial Perspective
This point of view was written in partnership with the University of Bristol School of Management.
Particular thanks go to:
Dr Roberta Bernardi
Dr Jennifer Johns
Professor Martin Parker
Professor Palie Smart
Dr Frederick Harry Pitts
Professor Dale Southerton
Dr Nikolaos Stylos
Dr Huw Thomas
Text © Future Agenda
Images © istockimages.com
Graphs © As referenced
First published August 2020 by:
Future Agenda Limited
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH
www.futureagenda.org
Contents
The Challenge			6
The Pace of Change			7
Globalisation			8
Aging				9
Environmental and Ecological Crisis		 10
Flexible Working		11	
The Policy Challenge		 12
Reskilling Education		 13
A Motivation to Work		 14
Covid-19		15
Core Questions		16
Additional Reading		 17
References		19
6
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspectiveFutureofPatientDataInsightsfromMultipleExpertDiscussionsAroundtheWorld
The Challenge
Shifts such as technological progress, globalisation, an increasingly ageing population and climate
change are revolutionising how and where we work. For some this offers unparalleled opportunity,
bringing stability, opportunity and a sense of purpose where previously there was none. For others
it is unsettling as new business models and external challenges disrupt established industries
and profoundly affect the economy and society as a whole. On top of this Covid-19 has added
an extraordinary level of uncertainty around what the new “normal” could be. Such is the speed
of change it is difficult for business leaders or policy makers, let alone workers themselves, to
plan effectively for the future. Multiple questions arise. Globally many are already experiencing a
movement away from manufacturing towards services but what will be the long-term effect of AI
and intelligent machines? How will more global warming impact our increasingly interconnected
economies? What skills will be needed to survive and prosper? How can we ensure a transition
agenda that is equitable and works for all? How can we safeguard our lives and livelihoods against
future pandemics? Indeed, what are the key challenges for the future of work? These formed the
basis of discussion at a recent series of interviews with senior academics at the University of Bristol
School of Management, the major points of which are outlined below. The aim is to provide an
initial perspective on the future of the workplace which will be further explored in a series of online
discussions, interviews and workshop across Europe over six months from September 2020.
7
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
That work should change is no surprise – indeed
the economist David Ricardo was worrying about
the impact of “the machinery question” as long ago
as 1821. However, the current pace of change is
certainly new. The speed of scale being achieved by
recent tech unicorns is, for instance, without parallel.
There are many perspectives on how this will impact
the future of work. Some, pointing to the pace at
which robots are being adopted, suggest that over
the next decade artificial intelligence, advanced
robotics and cognitive automation, the Internet of
Things (IoT) and other technologies such as synthetic
biology, 3D and 4D printing, will increasingly take
on tasks that were once performed by people and
that a consequence of this will mean there may not
be enough well paid work for everyone to do.1
An
alternative view is that the impact of new technology
on jobs is overstated, and that since the global
financial crash, any gains in productivity have been
achieved largely as a result of intensified or flexibilised
labour regimes rather than technical investment.
In addition they suggest the pressure to provide
immediate returns to shareholders could continue
to act as a disincentive for corporates to make the
necessary investment in new technologies particularly
when labour costs are low.2
That said, one consequence of Covid-19 may
be that companies accelerate the move towards
automation as they strive to protect their operations
from future pandemics. A recent EY report surveyed
nearly 3,0000 executives and found that 40% are
planning to increase spending on autonomous
technologies as a result of the crisis.3
History certainly shows that rather than destroy
jobs, technology is likely to reshape them. But, the
transition is likely to be bumpy. In the long term
there may well be increased investment in higher
productivity and economic growth and the creation
of new jobs in yet-to-exist industries. However,
short-term, with jobless claims rising at record rates
and the world economy shrinking, there is growing
concern about the impact any shift towards greater
automation may have on workers, particularly
those on lower pay. As far back as 2016 Barack
Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors estimated
that 83% of workers in occupations that paid less
than UD$20 an hour were at high risk of being
replaced. By 2030, as many as 20 million additional
manufacturing jobs worldwide could be displaced.4
This at a time when the WEF has forecast we
need to create another 600m jobs to sustain
current standards.
It is not just low-skilled roles that will be changed.
Characteristic of the new technologies is their
capacity to augment and replace tasks within
clerical and professional jobs. Intelligent systems will
vastly improve the productivity of a range of
office-based activities across clerical to professional
roles. For some this will reduce the boredom
involved in menial and repetitive tasks and enable
the use of new ‘soft’ skills, but others could find
themselves in a precarious position as increasing
parts of their role profiles are performed by
algorithms and machines. Unevenly distributed
around the world, or within countries, this raises
difficult questions about the potential mismatch
between the speed of disruption and the ability of
systems to accommodate it. Alongside its effect
on the growing levels of economic inequality and
political polarisation, there are also concerns about
the broader impact of new technologies on skills,
wages, and the nature of work itself.
The Pace of Change
Short-term, with jobless claims rising
at record rates and the world
economy shrinking, there is growing
concern about the impact any shift
towards greater automation may
have on workers, particularly those
on lower pay.
8
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
Coincident with this, accelerated globalisation has
lifted millions of people out of poverty and into the
consuming class. This has often aligned with a
migration from the countryside. The UN predicts
that by 2050 68% of us will live in cities - with
most of the growth taking place in developing
economies, those in Africa particularly. In countries
such as Kenya the government is training millions of
workers to participate in the human cloud and take
on potentially short term tasks such as data entry
which previously would have been done by white
collar workers around the world. But companies
with low-paid workers in emerging economies
have undercut their peers in the richer world, so
there has a been a major transfer of production in
areas such as textiles and consumer electronics
with the consequent reduction in the demand for
comparatively skilled workers in the West. Alongside
this, the technological reshaping of work and
the global reconfiguration of manufacturing and
production have contributed to a shift of workers in
developed Western countries away from the factory
floor towards service-sector employment, both in
low-skilled customer service work and in high-skilled
‘knowledge’ occupations.
All this means that for some economies, especially
in the US, there is a growing absence of medium
skilled jobs. Some point to the “hollowing out” of
the workplace as thousands of task-based roles in
middle-income jobs are either outsourced or deskilled
by technology. They worry that this will lead to
accelerating inequality which will only be exacerbated
by the economic after-shock of Covid-19.
While certain jobs and tasks are indeed disappearing
– paralegals, back-office accounting, pharmacists and
call centre workers are just some that are frequently
highlighted – others are emerging or growing; think
data scientists, genetic counsellors or ethics advisors.
Indeed, the OECD suggests that 65% of children
entering primary school today will ultimately end up
working in areas which currently don’t exist.
This presents huge challenges around education. It
may be impossible to compete with automation so
what skills are needed to complement it? How can
we provide workers of all ages with the opportunity
to train, retrain and augment their skills base? And,
given the emergence of new non-standard forms
of work, how can we ensure workers retain an
adequate set of employment protections? What will
be the role of trade unions for example and how can
international bodies such as the International Labour
Organisation make good on its ambition to promote
decent work for all?
Globalisation
The OECD suggests that 65% of
children entering primary school
today will ultimately end up working
in areas which currently don’t exist.
This presents huge challenges around
education.
9
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
Alongside all this, we can’t ignore the fact that
our population is ageing. This raises fundamental
questions around how to fund retirement. In 2015
globally there were 28 people aged 65 and over for
every 100 people of working age. By 2050 this ratio
is projected to double. Many are already are working
past their traditional pensionable age – some out of
financial necessity, others because they are keen to
maintain a proactive role. Governments, including
those in Australia and Germany are changing the
norms as they recognise that neither individuals nor
society can fund a 30-year retirement on the back of
a 40-year work life. Within this, some older workers
expect their experience should command higher
salaries, so businesses need to consider ways to
reduce the premium for long tenure. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) reckons ageing societies have
the potential to slow economic growth by as much
as 3% by the middle of this century, while also
increasing the strain on the welfare state.
Keeping people in the workforce is the obvious
solution but they will need support to develop and
build new skills. The OECD reckons around one in
three 55- to 65-year-olds lacks computer experience
or cannot pass technology tests. Such deficits in
digital skills can be tackled with proper training,
organised by the government, companies or silver
surfers themselves but, given the overall squeeze
on jobs, expect discrimination in both retention and
recruitment to be an ongoing challenge.
Those who cannot work must be looked after.
However, many countries already faced a severe
shortage of care workers even before the pandemic.
Technology may well help to alleviate the pressure
and allow doctors and nurses time to focus on
human elements of healthcare – compassion,
empathy and emotional support – albeit how to
pay for this is a growing concern. One solution is to
encourage those from a declining sector to retrain
as nurses. However, this sort transition is not easy.
True, as jobs change people will be forced to adapt.
But some may be unwilling or unable to do the work
which becomes available. Those who had skilled
careers in manufacturing, for example, may not want
to do comparatively low-income healthcare work.
Ageing
Some governments, including those in
Australia and Germany, are changing
the norms as they recognise that
neither individuals nor society can fund
a 30-year retirement on the back of
a 40-year work life.
10
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
Environmental and ecological degradation is
having a profound effect across all sectors. For
organisations in the private, public and not-for
profit spheres this can be inextricably linked to
strategy, risk, opportunity, financial performance
and shareholder value. Its impact raises
fundamental questions. Is it right to encourage
over-consumption? Is globalisation the correct
approach? Is the shared vision of a generative,
restorative and net-positive economy in need
of systemic changes to allow the scaling-up (of
existing, promising) practices and transition through
transformative strategies?5
Research suggests three unifying dialogues
surrounding organisational impacts on the
environment focused on “productivity and
innovation”, “corporate citizenship” and “economic
resilience”. A major theme is a preoccupation with
efficiency strategies to confront the challenges
presented by a linear (and, arguably, unsustainable)
economy, which inadvertently serves to preserve its
own existence. These strategies are concerned with
reducing harm, abatement, end of pipe solutions,
doing more with less and minimising the negative
impacts of the existing industrial systems. They have
been collectively termed as a mode of incremental
reductionism that maintains the supremacy of the
status quo.6
Promising practice is out there,
and we now need to address institutional and
systemic issues for scaling-up and transition to
low-carbon existence.
Some believe that we are experiencing a
period of fluctuation and that we are part of an
evolving industrial system in which business, civil
society and government are experimenting with
different transformational strategies to advance
environmental and societal well-being. As leadership
shifts and many re-evaluate their priorities, we may
see a new way of thinking about the economy
and new policies and institutions to tackle climate
change and guard against future pandemics. Others
see that the Covid-19 crisis has presented a unique
opportunity to pair economic recovery action with
climate action which, if successful, will ensure that
economies can recover stronger than before while
simultaneously reducing emissions.
Again, the effects of the growing environmental
and ecological crisis will be unevenly distributed
across and within different regions but the working
poor, those in the informal economy, seasonal and
casual workers, the self-employed, micro and small
sized enterprises are seen as some of the most
vulnerable; indeed the UN estimates that by 2030
as many as 80 million may be lost due to climate
change alone. Longer term however, most studies
show that a transition to a low-carbon economy
may ultimately lead to a net increase in employment
overall and new skills and industries are already
developing, the speed of change and number of
jobs created still depends on the extent to which
nations are prepared to invest in greener products
and services.7
China is at the forefront of much green innovation
boasting the world’s largest renewable energy job
market with 3.4 million working in the industry. In the
US, where, in some areas, there is still considerable
scepticism about climate change, the solar industry
alone has been generating jobs twenty times
faster than the overall economy. At the same time
as jobs are being created some, such as those in
energy intensive and polluting industries, will be
transformed or eliminated.
Environmental and Ecological Crisis
The Covid-19 crisis has presented a
unique opportunity to pair economic
recovery action with climate action
which, if successful, will ensure that
economies can recover stronger than
before while simultaneously reducing
emissions.
11
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
On top of all this Covid-19 is dramatically changing
working norms and has propelled new technology
across all aspects of working life. For those used to
an office environment, remote working has suddenly
become a reality. Adapting to this is not necessarily
easy – interruptions are more frequent at home and
often workers find it difficult to create routines and
build networks that drive creativity.
In some ways, however, this is an acceleration of
an existing trend. Many nations were already
seeing growth in new non-standard forms of
employment. Looking ahead expect more people
of all professions to join the on-demand or gig
economy. Although originating around the supply
of food, couriering parcels or providing taxi rides,
increasing unemployment and a likely rise in the
number of project-based options may well shake up
careers in the white-collar world. This could become
the new normal for many. Even before the crisis
a study from UpWork and the Freelancers Union
in the US estimated in October 2019 that annual
income in the US freelance economy totalled nearly
$1tn and, significantly, for the first time, in six years
of such studies, the majority viewed their work as a
long-term choice rather than as a temporary option.
Businesses are now becoming flexible too. Many
younger workers, particularly those who are
higher earning and technology literate, prefer to
set their own schedules. Independent workers are
increasingly choosing to offer their services on digital
platforms including Upwork, Uber, and Etsy and, in
the process, challenging conventional ideas about
how, when and where work is undertaken. Even
before the pandemic the number of digital nomads
who, rather than limit themselves to a 9-5 existence,
choose to work where they can find the best Wi-Fi,
was growing. Increasingly companies are supportive
- even pitching their remote workers “delocation
packages” to move away from overcrowded urban
cities.8
Some countries, especially in the Nordics,
are also keen to encourage them. Estonia is one of
the first governments in the world to offer a digital
visa for the purpose of remote working.
Looking ahead, although anecdotally “gigging”
began as something that young people do, in many
ways it may suit older people better. They may be
more content to work part-time, are not looking for
career progression and are better able to deal with
the precariousness and timing of such jobs. This
is good news for companies as they can keep a
smaller core staff of regulars and augment the team
when needed.
And there’s the rub. Online labour platforms have now
become important players in the marketplace and have
transformed the traditional employment relationship.9
A key point of contention is the classification of gig
workers as independent contractors or employees.
Hidden beneath the claims of autonomy, is the fact
that online platforms exercise firm control over most
aspects of fees, how, and to what standard, work
is done. In addition, most don’t cap the number of
freelancers who work on any day so the market can
be flooded, and earnings slashed. Rather than give
workers freedom to work any time anywhere, this can
mean they have to work intense, unsocial and irregular
hours in order to meet client demand. Oxford academic
Jeremias Prassl suggests that these problems are
driven by firms “presenting themselves as mere
intermediaries rather than powerful service providers….
to shift nearly all of their business risk and cost onto
others”.10
It is certainly hard to disguise the fact that
the gig economy’s rise has been accompanied by a
fall in the fortunes of working households – which now
comprise 58% of those below the official poverty line;
the figure was 37% in 1995.
Flexible Working
Online labour platforms have
now become important players in the
marketplace and have transformed the
traditional employment relationship.7
A key point of contention is the
classification of gig workers as
independent contractors or employees.
12
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
How then can we ensure there is flexible work
without denying workers basic rights? For policy
makers regulation is increasingly difficult given the
international nature of the market. In the absence
of effective controls, it has been left to the goodwill
of transnational corporations, some bound by
shareholder obligations, to bridge the gap. But
businesses can only compete fairly if employment
rules are equally applied and consistently enforced
which means many policy makers must step up.
One possibility, now gaining traction, is the adoption
of a universal basic income (UBI). Supporters
suggest that this could help reduce some of the
excessive inequalities of wealth, reduce financial
insecurity, particularly for gig workers, and, as
evidenced by pilot projects in Madhya Pradesh,
India, and Stockton, California, help poorer people
to gain control over their debts.11
Detractors argue
that in reality it could have the opposite effect and
“embalm relations as they are” by unintentionally
stymying the bargaining power of workers and
disincentivising employers from investment in
automation.12
Regulation is increasingly difficult
given the international nature of the
market. In the absence of effective
controls, it has been left to the goodwill
of transnational corporations, some
bound by shareholder obligations, to
bridge the gap.
The Policy Challenge
13
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
It is simply not possible to weather the current
technological revolution by waiting for the next
generation’s workforce to become better prepared.
To date, educational systems have not kept pace
with the changing nature of work, resulting in some
employers saying they cannot find enough people
with the relevant skills. Too often the future for which
students were asked to prepare did not arrive, and
there is a danger the same will happen with the
futures we are told are before us this time too.
Some propose that this can be addressed by a shift
away from front-loaded education systems to ones
where learning is more evenly distributed across a
working life so skills can be continuously updated
in order to match our changing requirements.
Rapid reskilling is needed. This requires much
shorter interventions and a different system to
recognize those skills; expect microcredits to
replace traditional degrees in many cases. These
can be accumulated over time. A question recently
a question recently raised in a Singapore discussion
on the future of education was ‘what could a
20-year degree look like?’ – the view was that
individuals will dip in and out of education when
best suits their career development and shifts.
In addition to how to learn, what we learn will also
change. Rather than teaching how to do routine
tasks for jobs that may not exist for much longer,
the focus should be on acquiring those skills that
computers cannot do. As the world recovers from
Covid-19 it may retreat into more national forms
of capitalism. Production may become more
localised so there may be a greater requirement
for skilled workers in engineering and associated
trades. At the same time, alongside improvements
around STEM, a greater focus on soft skills may
be necessary and we may see a new emphasis on
creativity as well as critical and systems thinking.
Business collaboration is vital here. Furthermore,
policy makers could do more to ensure that, despite
the expense, training is accessible for all – often it
is only available to employees and depends on job
tenure so therefore exacerbates those who
are already excluded.
Reskilling
Some propose a shift away from
front-loaded education systems to
ones where learning is more evenly
distributed across a working life so
skills can be continuously updated in
order to match our changing
requirements.
14
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
In parallel it’s important to remember that many
people aspire to something more than just a salary
as a motivation to work. For example, they want to
do work that allows them to feel personally valued
or that makes a wider contribution to society. There
is still a lot to be done to give employees a greater
say over the quality and conditions of their work,
but those that are able to wield a choice over their
careers may also want the organisations they work
with to have a mission and purpose they believe in
and make a positive contribution to society.
In the past few years there has been a noticeable
shift towards this position as more companies have
evolved from a pure shareholder value/financial
targets business focus to a broader view of wider
social/environmental impact and influence. Notably
this view has been recently publicly articulated
by Larry Fink, CEO at BlackRock, which with
$6.3tn of assets under management, counts as
the biggest investor of them all. He contends that
companies without a social purpose fail to make the
investments in employees, innovation and capital
expenditures needed for long-term growth. Although
the shareholder-driven search for short-term growth
makes it hard for some to address this, research by
the likes of George Serafeim at Harvard Business
School supports this; he has shown that companies
seriously committed to a purpose outperform
their peers.13
A Motivation to Work
More companies have evolved from a
pure shareholder value/financial targets
business focus to a broader view of
wider social/environmental impact
and influence.
15
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
The pandemic has accelerated trends that were
already beginning to take effect – most obviously
increasing levels of underemployment and the
number of those who are dependent on part
time work, the gig economy workers and zero
hours contracts. Widespread adoption of remote
working will likely have a huge impact on our built
environment, particularly within city centres, local
communities and for our transport networks.
Expect a reconfiguration.
We may also see slowing urbanisation as a lack
of opportunity discourages migration and the
latent fear of contagion adds to the downswing.
Philosophically, capitalism itself may be transformed
as governments prop up weak firms with subsidised
loans, raise higher taxes and call for a new social
contract to which business should adhere in
order to justify the support it receives from the
public purse. Also, when job subsidies and other
supporting measures expire, the business case for
greater automation may finally correspond to the
sometimes-exaggerated claims we have seen in
recent years, such as the technological substitution
of jobs accelerating to a previously unviable and
unprofitable extent in order to better ensure
social distancing.
At a time when the consumer is cash-strapped
and the use of robotics is becoming mainstream,
some governments may consider adopting a form
of UBI. Most likely there will be a re-evaluation of
the jobs which offer real social value, such as those
designated as ‘key’ to social and economic life such
as delivery, health, maintenance and care, and,
possibly, a subsequent change in remuneration
for workers with collective bargaining power. In
manufacturing several global supply chains may
be replaced by more regional, consumer-oriented
supply webs and networks and the faster adoption
of digital marketplaces and 3D printing techniques.
Covid-19
Philosophically, capitalism itself may be
transformed as governments prop up
weak firms with subsidised loans, raise
higher taxes and call for a new social
contract to which business should
adhere in order to justify the support it
receives from the public purse.
16
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
As we look to explore the future of the workplace in
more depth some of the issues raised need further
evaluation. What will work be in the rest of the 21st
century, what is an employer and what is a career
are three fundamental questions circumscribed
by the legal complexities of the emergent gig or
platform economy. It is clear there still will be work,
but, given the social and economic challenges
around us, what are the best skills to acquire?
What of the artists, creatives and musicians – will
they drive consumption, even with the difficulties
the sector faces in the wake of Covid-19 and
the increasing insecurity of creative lifestyles with
the rise of the platform? And, in a society where
inequality is rife, how do we cater for those left
behind? Must we simply accept and adjust to
the inevitability of there being a ‘left behind’, or
seek to regulate and constrain the economic
and technological tendencies set in train by
contemporary events?
Clearly there is a role for us all to play here. Policy
makers can encourage companies to invest in
human capital through tax benefits and other
incentives; companies can add their support
through better training and, as far as possible,
individuals can learn to be more flexible, engaging
with technology as it evolves so they remain in work,
albeit in a different way.
Core Questions
17
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
Roberta Bernadi | Mark Exworthy: Clinical manager’s identity at the crossroad of multiple institutional logics in
IT innovation: The case study of a health care organisation in England
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/isj.12267
Vanessa Beck: The (performance) management of retirement and the limits of individual choice
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/people/vanessa-a-beck/pub/119141682
Rory Donnelly | Jennifer Johns: Recontextualising remote working and its HRM in the digital economy: An
integrated framework for theory and practice
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339925936_Recontextualising_remote_working_and_its_HRM_in_
the_digital_economy_An_integrated_framework_for_theory_and_practice
Eleonora Pantano | Alessandro Gandini: Exploring the forms of sociality mediated by innovative technologies
in retail settings
https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/21289/3/1-s2.0-S0747563217301097-main.pdf
Martin Parker: Alternative enterprises local economies and social justice: why smaller is still more beautiful
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/alternative-enterprises-local-economies-and-
socialjustice
Jon Cruddas MP | Frederick Harry Pitts: The Politics of Postcapitalism: Labour and Our Digital Futures
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12853
Frederick Harry Pitts | Ana Cecilia Dinerstein: Automation and Crisis: Arguing the Future
https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2020/07/13/automation-and-crisis-arguing-the-future
Frederick Harry Pitts | Katie Bales | Huw Thomas: From the Future of work to the futures of work
https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2018/09/05/editorial-from-the-future-of-work-to-futures-of-work
Frederick Harry Pitts | Katie Bales | Huw Thomas: Covid-19 and the futures of work: Editorial and call
for contributions
https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2020/04/01/covid-19-and-the-futures-of-work-editorial-and-call-for-contributions
Palie Smart: Pre-paradigmatic status of industrial sustainability: a systematic review
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJOPM-02-2016-0058
Andrew Sturdy | Glenn Morgan: Management Consultancies Inventing the Future
https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2018/09/05/management-consultancies-inventing-the-future-2
Additional Reading
18
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
Nikolaos Stylos | Jeremy Zwiegelaar: Big Data as a Game Changer: How Does It Shape Business
Intelligence Within a Tourism and Hospitality Industry Context?
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-13-6339-9_11
Nikolaos Stylos: Technological evolution and tourist decision-making: a perspective article.
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/people/nikolaos-stylos/pub/204096607
Dale Southerton| Alastair Ulph: Sustainable Consumption: Multi-disciplinary Perspectives In Honour of
Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, Oxford
https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679355.001.0001/
acprof-9780199679355
Dale Southerton: Time, Consumption and the Co-ordination of Everyday Life
https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230572515
Huw Thomas: A ‘Decent Cuppa’: Worker Power and Consumer Power in the Sri Lankan Tea Sector
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/people/huw-thomas/pub/204204382
Huw Thomas | Peter Turnbull: From horizontal to vertical labour governance: The International Labour
Organisation (ILO)and decent work in global supply chains
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/from-horizontal-to-vertical-labourgovernance
Paul Thompson | Frederick Harry Pitts: Bullshit About Jobs https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-
articles/rsa-blogs/2018/07/bullshit-about-jobs
Virginai Vannucci | Eleanora Pantano: Digital human touchpoints? Insights from consumer-facing in-store services
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333737671_
Steven Vallas | Juliet B Schor: What Do Platforms Do? Understanding the Gig Economy
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-soc-121919-054857
 
19
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0d2Dhv1C34
Beltagui, A., Sesis, A., & Stylos, N. (2019). 3D printing, makerspaces and innovation: a bricolage perspective. https://
publications.aston.ac.uk/id/eprint/39353/1/3DP_makerspaces_and_innovation.pdf
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https://www.frederickharrypitts.com/a-world-beyond-work
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https://www.ey.com/en_lu/ccb/how-do-you-find-clarity-in-the-midst-of-covid-19-crisis
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https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/how-robots-change-the-world
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Daniel Welch & Dale Southerton (2019) After Paris: transitions for sustainable consumption, Sustainability: Science,
Practice and Policy, 15:1, 31-44, DOI: 10.1080/15487733.2018.1560861
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Geels, F.W., McMeekin, A., Milan, J., & Southerton, D., (2015), A critical appraisal of Sustainable Consumption and
Production research: The reformist, revolutionary and reconfiguration positions, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 34: 1-12.
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https://globalnews.ca/tag/climate-change/
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https://zapier.com/blog/move-away-from-sf-get-remote-job/
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https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-soc-121919-054857
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https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-blog/blog/2018/11/book-review-humans-service-oup-2018-jeremias-prassl
11
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/05/20/guy-standing-on-how-lockdowns-make-the-case-for-a-basic-income
12
https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2020/07/13/automation-and-crisis-arguing-the-future/
13
https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54523
20
TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective
www.futureagenda.org
About Future Agenda
Future Agenda is an open source think tank
and advisory firm. We help organisations, large
and small, to explore emerging opportunities,
identify new growth platforms and develop
game-changing innovations. Founded in
2010, Future Agenda has pioneered an open
foresight approach that brings together senior
leaders across business, academia, NFP and
government. The aim is to connect the
informed and influential, to challenge
assumptions and build a more comprehensive
view about the future that will help deliver
positive, lasting impact.
For more information and to have access to
all our insights please visit
www.futureagenda.org
Contact:
Dr. Tim Jones:
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
Caroline Dewing:
caroline.dewing@futureagenda.org
About University of Bristol School
of Managment
Bristol is one of the most popular and
successful universities in the UK, ranked
58th globally (QS World University Rankings
2021). The University of Bristol School of
Management’s vision is to empower leadership
for a sustainable, inclusive and prosperous
world through a progressive understanding
of management and organisation in alliance
with business, government and society. 78 per
cent of the school’s research is recognised as
“world-leading” or “internationally excellent”
(REF 2014).
For further information see
www.bristol.ac.uk/management

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The future of work and skills development

  • 1. 1 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective THE FUTURE OF WORK AND SKILLS DEVELOPMENT An Initial Perspective
  • 2.
  • 3. The Future of Work and Skills Development An Initial Perspective This point of view was written in partnership with the University of Bristol School of Management. Particular thanks go to: Dr Roberta Bernardi Dr Jennifer Johns Professor Martin Parker Professor Palie Smart Dr Frederick Harry Pitts Professor Dale Southerton Dr Nikolaos Stylos Dr Huw Thomas
  • 4. Text © Future Agenda Images © istockimages.com Graphs © As referenced First published August 2020 by: Future Agenda Limited 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH www.futureagenda.org
  • 5. Contents The Challenge 6 The Pace of Change 7 Globalisation 8 Aging 9 Environmental and Ecological Crisis 10 Flexible Working 11 The Policy Challenge 12 Reskilling Education 13 A Motivation to Work 14 Covid-19 15 Core Questions 16 Additional Reading 17 References 19
  • 6. 6 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspectiveFutureofPatientDataInsightsfromMultipleExpertDiscussionsAroundtheWorld The Challenge Shifts such as technological progress, globalisation, an increasingly ageing population and climate change are revolutionising how and where we work. For some this offers unparalleled opportunity, bringing stability, opportunity and a sense of purpose where previously there was none. For others it is unsettling as new business models and external challenges disrupt established industries and profoundly affect the economy and society as a whole. On top of this Covid-19 has added an extraordinary level of uncertainty around what the new “normal” could be. Such is the speed of change it is difficult for business leaders or policy makers, let alone workers themselves, to plan effectively for the future. Multiple questions arise. Globally many are already experiencing a movement away from manufacturing towards services but what will be the long-term effect of AI and intelligent machines? How will more global warming impact our increasingly interconnected economies? What skills will be needed to survive and prosper? How can we ensure a transition agenda that is equitable and works for all? How can we safeguard our lives and livelihoods against future pandemics? Indeed, what are the key challenges for the future of work? These formed the basis of discussion at a recent series of interviews with senior academics at the University of Bristol School of Management, the major points of which are outlined below. The aim is to provide an initial perspective on the future of the workplace which will be further explored in a series of online discussions, interviews and workshop across Europe over six months from September 2020.
  • 7. 7 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective That work should change is no surprise – indeed the economist David Ricardo was worrying about the impact of “the machinery question” as long ago as 1821. However, the current pace of change is certainly new. The speed of scale being achieved by recent tech unicorns is, for instance, without parallel. There are many perspectives on how this will impact the future of work. Some, pointing to the pace at which robots are being adopted, suggest that over the next decade artificial intelligence, advanced robotics and cognitive automation, the Internet of Things (IoT) and other technologies such as synthetic biology, 3D and 4D printing, will increasingly take on tasks that were once performed by people and that a consequence of this will mean there may not be enough well paid work for everyone to do.1 An alternative view is that the impact of new technology on jobs is overstated, and that since the global financial crash, any gains in productivity have been achieved largely as a result of intensified or flexibilised labour regimes rather than technical investment. In addition they suggest the pressure to provide immediate returns to shareholders could continue to act as a disincentive for corporates to make the necessary investment in new technologies particularly when labour costs are low.2 That said, one consequence of Covid-19 may be that companies accelerate the move towards automation as they strive to protect their operations from future pandemics. A recent EY report surveyed nearly 3,0000 executives and found that 40% are planning to increase spending on autonomous technologies as a result of the crisis.3 History certainly shows that rather than destroy jobs, technology is likely to reshape them. But, the transition is likely to be bumpy. In the long term there may well be increased investment in higher productivity and economic growth and the creation of new jobs in yet-to-exist industries. However, short-term, with jobless claims rising at record rates and the world economy shrinking, there is growing concern about the impact any shift towards greater automation may have on workers, particularly those on lower pay. As far back as 2016 Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors estimated that 83% of workers in occupations that paid less than UD$20 an hour were at high risk of being replaced. By 2030, as many as 20 million additional manufacturing jobs worldwide could be displaced.4 This at a time when the WEF has forecast we need to create another 600m jobs to sustain current standards. It is not just low-skilled roles that will be changed. Characteristic of the new technologies is their capacity to augment and replace tasks within clerical and professional jobs. Intelligent systems will vastly improve the productivity of a range of office-based activities across clerical to professional roles. For some this will reduce the boredom involved in menial and repetitive tasks and enable the use of new ‘soft’ skills, but others could find themselves in a precarious position as increasing parts of their role profiles are performed by algorithms and machines. Unevenly distributed around the world, or within countries, this raises difficult questions about the potential mismatch between the speed of disruption and the ability of systems to accommodate it. Alongside its effect on the growing levels of economic inequality and political polarisation, there are also concerns about the broader impact of new technologies on skills, wages, and the nature of work itself. The Pace of Change Short-term, with jobless claims rising at record rates and the world economy shrinking, there is growing concern about the impact any shift towards greater automation may have on workers, particularly those on lower pay.
  • 8. 8 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective Coincident with this, accelerated globalisation has lifted millions of people out of poverty and into the consuming class. This has often aligned with a migration from the countryside. The UN predicts that by 2050 68% of us will live in cities - with most of the growth taking place in developing economies, those in Africa particularly. In countries such as Kenya the government is training millions of workers to participate in the human cloud and take on potentially short term tasks such as data entry which previously would have been done by white collar workers around the world. But companies with low-paid workers in emerging economies have undercut their peers in the richer world, so there has a been a major transfer of production in areas such as textiles and consumer electronics with the consequent reduction in the demand for comparatively skilled workers in the West. Alongside this, the technological reshaping of work and the global reconfiguration of manufacturing and production have contributed to a shift of workers in developed Western countries away from the factory floor towards service-sector employment, both in low-skilled customer service work and in high-skilled ‘knowledge’ occupations. All this means that for some economies, especially in the US, there is a growing absence of medium skilled jobs. Some point to the “hollowing out” of the workplace as thousands of task-based roles in middle-income jobs are either outsourced or deskilled by technology. They worry that this will lead to accelerating inequality which will only be exacerbated by the economic after-shock of Covid-19. While certain jobs and tasks are indeed disappearing – paralegals, back-office accounting, pharmacists and call centre workers are just some that are frequently highlighted – others are emerging or growing; think data scientists, genetic counsellors or ethics advisors. Indeed, the OECD suggests that 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in areas which currently don’t exist. This presents huge challenges around education. It may be impossible to compete with automation so what skills are needed to complement it? How can we provide workers of all ages with the opportunity to train, retrain and augment their skills base? And, given the emergence of new non-standard forms of work, how can we ensure workers retain an adequate set of employment protections? What will be the role of trade unions for example and how can international bodies such as the International Labour Organisation make good on its ambition to promote decent work for all? Globalisation The OECD suggests that 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in areas which currently don’t exist. This presents huge challenges around education.
  • 9. 9 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective Alongside all this, we can’t ignore the fact that our population is ageing. This raises fundamental questions around how to fund retirement. In 2015 globally there were 28 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people of working age. By 2050 this ratio is projected to double. Many are already are working past their traditional pensionable age – some out of financial necessity, others because they are keen to maintain a proactive role. Governments, including those in Australia and Germany are changing the norms as they recognise that neither individuals nor society can fund a 30-year retirement on the back of a 40-year work life. Within this, some older workers expect their experience should command higher salaries, so businesses need to consider ways to reduce the premium for long tenure. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reckons ageing societies have the potential to slow economic growth by as much as 3% by the middle of this century, while also increasing the strain on the welfare state. Keeping people in the workforce is the obvious solution but they will need support to develop and build new skills. The OECD reckons around one in three 55- to 65-year-olds lacks computer experience or cannot pass technology tests. Such deficits in digital skills can be tackled with proper training, organised by the government, companies or silver surfers themselves but, given the overall squeeze on jobs, expect discrimination in both retention and recruitment to be an ongoing challenge. Those who cannot work must be looked after. However, many countries already faced a severe shortage of care workers even before the pandemic. Technology may well help to alleviate the pressure and allow doctors and nurses time to focus on human elements of healthcare – compassion, empathy and emotional support – albeit how to pay for this is a growing concern. One solution is to encourage those from a declining sector to retrain as nurses. However, this sort transition is not easy. True, as jobs change people will be forced to adapt. But some may be unwilling or unable to do the work which becomes available. Those who had skilled careers in manufacturing, for example, may not want to do comparatively low-income healthcare work. Ageing Some governments, including those in Australia and Germany, are changing the norms as they recognise that neither individuals nor society can fund a 30-year retirement on the back of a 40-year work life.
  • 10. 10 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective Environmental and ecological degradation is having a profound effect across all sectors. For organisations in the private, public and not-for profit spheres this can be inextricably linked to strategy, risk, opportunity, financial performance and shareholder value. Its impact raises fundamental questions. Is it right to encourage over-consumption? Is globalisation the correct approach? Is the shared vision of a generative, restorative and net-positive economy in need of systemic changes to allow the scaling-up (of existing, promising) practices and transition through transformative strategies?5 Research suggests three unifying dialogues surrounding organisational impacts on the environment focused on “productivity and innovation”, “corporate citizenship” and “economic resilience”. A major theme is a preoccupation with efficiency strategies to confront the challenges presented by a linear (and, arguably, unsustainable) economy, which inadvertently serves to preserve its own existence. These strategies are concerned with reducing harm, abatement, end of pipe solutions, doing more with less and minimising the negative impacts of the existing industrial systems. They have been collectively termed as a mode of incremental reductionism that maintains the supremacy of the status quo.6 Promising practice is out there, and we now need to address institutional and systemic issues for scaling-up and transition to low-carbon existence. Some believe that we are experiencing a period of fluctuation and that we are part of an evolving industrial system in which business, civil society and government are experimenting with different transformational strategies to advance environmental and societal well-being. As leadership shifts and many re-evaluate their priorities, we may see a new way of thinking about the economy and new policies and institutions to tackle climate change and guard against future pandemics. Others see that the Covid-19 crisis has presented a unique opportunity to pair economic recovery action with climate action which, if successful, will ensure that economies can recover stronger than before while simultaneously reducing emissions. Again, the effects of the growing environmental and ecological crisis will be unevenly distributed across and within different regions but the working poor, those in the informal economy, seasonal and casual workers, the self-employed, micro and small sized enterprises are seen as some of the most vulnerable; indeed the UN estimates that by 2030 as many as 80 million may be lost due to climate change alone. Longer term however, most studies show that a transition to a low-carbon economy may ultimately lead to a net increase in employment overall and new skills and industries are already developing, the speed of change and number of jobs created still depends on the extent to which nations are prepared to invest in greener products and services.7 China is at the forefront of much green innovation boasting the world’s largest renewable energy job market with 3.4 million working in the industry. In the US, where, in some areas, there is still considerable scepticism about climate change, the solar industry alone has been generating jobs twenty times faster than the overall economy. At the same time as jobs are being created some, such as those in energy intensive and polluting industries, will be transformed or eliminated. Environmental and Ecological Crisis The Covid-19 crisis has presented a unique opportunity to pair economic recovery action with climate action which, if successful, will ensure that economies can recover stronger than before while simultaneously reducing emissions.
  • 11. 11 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective On top of all this Covid-19 is dramatically changing working norms and has propelled new technology across all aspects of working life. For those used to an office environment, remote working has suddenly become a reality. Adapting to this is not necessarily easy – interruptions are more frequent at home and often workers find it difficult to create routines and build networks that drive creativity. In some ways, however, this is an acceleration of an existing trend. Many nations were already seeing growth in new non-standard forms of employment. Looking ahead expect more people of all professions to join the on-demand or gig economy. Although originating around the supply of food, couriering parcels or providing taxi rides, increasing unemployment and a likely rise in the number of project-based options may well shake up careers in the white-collar world. This could become the new normal for many. Even before the crisis a study from UpWork and the Freelancers Union in the US estimated in October 2019 that annual income in the US freelance economy totalled nearly $1tn and, significantly, for the first time, in six years of such studies, the majority viewed their work as a long-term choice rather than as a temporary option. Businesses are now becoming flexible too. Many younger workers, particularly those who are higher earning and technology literate, prefer to set their own schedules. Independent workers are increasingly choosing to offer their services on digital platforms including Upwork, Uber, and Etsy and, in the process, challenging conventional ideas about how, when and where work is undertaken. Even before the pandemic the number of digital nomads who, rather than limit themselves to a 9-5 existence, choose to work where they can find the best Wi-Fi, was growing. Increasingly companies are supportive - even pitching their remote workers “delocation packages” to move away from overcrowded urban cities.8 Some countries, especially in the Nordics, are also keen to encourage them. Estonia is one of the first governments in the world to offer a digital visa for the purpose of remote working. Looking ahead, although anecdotally “gigging” began as something that young people do, in many ways it may suit older people better. They may be more content to work part-time, are not looking for career progression and are better able to deal with the precariousness and timing of such jobs. This is good news for companies as they can keep a smaller core staff of regulars and augment the team when needed. And there’s the rub. Online labour platforms have now become important players in the marketplace and have transformed the traditional employment relationship.9 A key point of contention is the classification of gig workers as independent contractors or employees. Hidden beneath the claims of autonomy, is the fact that online platforms exercise firm control over most aspects of fees, how, and to what standard, work is done. In addition, most don’t cap the number of freelancers who work on any day so the market can be flooded, and earnings slashed. Rather than give workers freedom to work any time anywhere, this can mean they have to work intense, unsocial and irregular hours in order to meet client demand. Oxford academic Jeremias Prassl suggests that these problems are driven by firms “presenting themselves as mere intermediaries rather than powerful service providers…. to shift nearly all of their business risk and cost onto others”.10 It is certainly hard to disguise the fact that the gig economy’s rise has been accompanied by a fall in the fortunes of working households – which now comprise 58% of those below the official poverty line; the figure was 37% in 1995. Flexible Working Online labour platforms have now become important players in the marketplace and have transformed the traditional employment relationship.7 A key point of contention is the classification of gig workers as independent contractors or employees.
  • 12. 12 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective How then can we ensure there is flexible work without denying workers basic rights? For policy makers regulation is increasingly difficult given the international nature of the market. In the absence of effective controls, it has been left to the goodwill of transnational corporations, some bound by shareholder obligations, to bridge the gap. But businesses can only compete fairly if employment rules are equally applied and consistently enforced which means many policy makers must step up. One possibility, now gaining traction, is the adoption of a universal basic income (UBI). Supporters suggest that this could help reduce some of the excessive inequalities of wealth, reduce financial insecurity, particularly for gig workers, and, as evidenced by pilot projects in Madhya Pradesh, India, and Stockton, California, help poorer people to gain control over their debts.11 Detractors argue that in reality it could have the opposite effect and “embalm relations as they are” by unintentionally stymying the bargaining power of workers and disincentivising employers from investment in automation.12 Regulation is increasingly difficult given the international nature of the market. In the absence of effective controls, it has been left to the goodwill of transnational corporations, some bound by shareholder obligations, to bridge the gap. The Policy Challenge
  • 13. 13 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective It is simply not possible to weather the current technological revolution by waiting for the next generation’s workforce to become better prepared. To date, educational systems have not kept pace with the changing nature of work, resulting in some employers saying they cannot find enough people with the relevant skills. Too often the future for which students were asked to prepare did not arrive, and there is a danger the same will happen with the futures we are told are before us this time too. Some propose that this can be addressed by a shift away from front-loaded education systems to ones where learning is more evenly distributed across a working life so skills can be continuously updated in order to match our changing requirements. Rapid reskilling is needed. This requires much shorter interventions and a different system to recognize those skills; expect microcredits to replace traditional degrees in many cases. These can be accumulated over time. A question recently a question recently raised in a Singapore discussion on the future of education was ‘what could a 20-year degree look like?’ – the view was that individuals will dip in and out of education when best suits their career development and shifts. In addition to how to learn, what we learn will also change. Rather than teaching how to do routine tasks for jobs that may not exist for much longer, the focus should be on acquiring those skills that computers cannot do. As the world recovers from Covid-19 it may retreat into more national forms of capitalism. Production may become more localised so there may be a greater requirement for skilled workers in engineering and associated trades. At the same time, alongside improvements around STEM, a greater focus on soft skills may be necessary and we may see a new emphasis on creativity as well as critical and systems thinking. Business collaboration is vital here. Furthermore, policy makers could do more to ensure that, despite the expense, training is accessible for all – often it is only available to employees and depends on job tenure so therefore exacerbates those who are already excluded. Reskilling Some propose a shift away from front-loaded education systems to ones where learning is more evenly distributed across a working life so skills can be continuously updated in order to match our changing requirements.
  • 14. 14 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective In parallel it’s important to remember that many people aspire to something more than just a salary as a motivation to work. For example, they want to do work that allows them to feel personally valued or that makes a wider contribution to society. There is still a lot to be done to give employees a greater say over the quality and conditions of their work, but those that are able to wield a choice over their careers may also want the organisations they work with to have a mission and purpose they believe in and make a positive contribution to society. In the past few years there has been a noticeable shift towards this position as more companies have evolved from a pure shareholder value/financial targets business focus to a broader view of wider social/environmental impact and influence. Notably this view has been recently publicly articulated by Larry Fink, CEO at BlackRock, which with $6.3tn of assets under management, counts as the biggest investor of them all. He contends that companies without a social purpose fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth. Although the shareholder-driven search for short-term growth makes it hard for some to address this, research by the likes of George Serafeim at Harvard Business School supports this; he has shown that companies seriously committed to a purpose outperform their peers.13 A Motivation to Work More companies have evolved from a pure shareholder value/financial targets business focus to a broader view of wider social/environmental impact and influence.
  • 15. 15 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective The pandemic has accelerated trends that were already beginning to take effect – most obviously increasing levels of underemployment and the number of those who are dependent on part time work, the gig economy workers and zero hours contracts. Widespread adoption of remote working will likely have a huge impact on our built environment, particularly within city centres, local communities and for our transport networks. Expect a reconfiguration. We may also see slowing urbanisation as a lack of opportunity discourages migration and the latent fear of contagion adds to the downswing. Philosophically, capitalism itself may be transformed as governments prop up weak firms with subsidised loans, raise higher taxes and call for a new social contract to which business should adhere in order to justify the support it receives from the public purse. Also, when job subsidies and other supporting measures expire, the business case for greater automation may finally correspond to the sometimes-exaggerated claims we have seen in recent years, such as the technological substitution of jobs accelerating to a previously unviable and unprofitable extent in order to better ensure social distancing. At a time when the consumer is cash-strapped and the use of robotics is becoming mainstream, some governments may consider adopting a form of UBI. Most likely there will be a re-evaluation of the jobs which offer real social value, such as those designated as ‘key’ to social and economic life such as delivery, health, maintenance and care, and, possibly, a subsequent change in remuneration for workers with collective bargaining power. In manufacturing several global supply chains may be replaced by more regional, consumer-oriented supply webs and networks and the faster adoption of digital marketplaces and 3D printing techniques. Covid-19 Philosophically, capitalism itself may be transformed as governments prop up weak firms with subsidised loans, raise higher taxes and call for a new social contract to which business should adhere in order to justify the support it receives from the public purse.
  • 16. 16 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective As we look to explore the future of the workplace in more depth some of the issues raised need further evaluation. What will work be in the rest of the 21st century, what is an employer and what is a career are three fundamental questions circumscribed by the legal complexities of the emergent gig or platform economy. It is clear there still will be work, but, given the social and economic challenges around us, what are the best skills to acquire? What of the artists, creatives and musicians – will they drive consumption, even with the difficulties the sector faces in the wake of Covid-19 and the increasing insecurity of creative lifestyles with the rise of the platform? And, in a society where inequality is rife, how do we cater for those left behind? Must we simply accept and adjust to the inevitability of there being a ‘left behind’, or seek to regulate and constrain the economic and technological tendencies set in train by contemporary events? Clearly there is a role for us all to play here. Policy makers can encourage companies to invest in human capital through tax benefits and other incentives; companies can add their support through better training and, as far as possible, individuals can learn to be more flexible, engaging with technology as it evolves so they remain in work, albeit in a different way. Core Questions
  • 17. 17 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective Roberta Bernadi | Mark Exworthy: Clinical manager’s identity at the crossroad of multiple institutional logics in IT innovation: The case study of a health care organisation in England https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/isj.12267 Vanessa Beck: The (performance) management of retirement and the limits of individual choice http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/people/vanessa-a-beck/pub/119141682 Rory Donnelly | Jennifer Johns: Recontextualising remote working and its HRM in the digital economy: An integrated framework for theory and practice https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339925936_Recontextualising_remote_working_and_its_HRM_in_ the_digital_economy_An_integrated_framework_for_theory_and_practice Eleonora Pantano | Alessandro Gandini: Exploring the forms of sociality mediated by innovative technologies in retail settings https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/21289/3/1-s2.0-S0747563217301097-main.pdf Martin Parker: Alternative enterprises local economies and social justice: why smaller is still more beautiful https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/alternative-enterprises-local-economies-and- socialjustice Jon Cruddas MP | Frederick Harry Pitts: The Politics of Postcapitalism: Labour and Our Digital Futures https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.12853 Frederick Harry Pitts | Ana Cecilia Dinerstein: Automation and Crisis: Arguing the Future https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2020/07/13/automation-and-crisis-arguing-the-future Frederick Harry Pitts | Katie Bales | Huw Thomas: From the Future of work to the futures of work https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2018/09/05/editorial-from-the-future-of-work-to-futures-of-work Frederick Harry Pitts | Katie Bales | Huw Thomas: Covid-19 and the futures of work: Editorial and call for contributions https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2020/04/01/covid-19-and-the-futures-of-work-editorial-and-call-for-contributions Palie Smart: Pre-paradigmatic status of industrial sustainability: a systematic review https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJOPM-02-2016-0058 Andrew Sturdy | Glenn Morgan: Management Consultancies Inventing the Future https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2018/09/05/management-consultancies-inventing-the-future-2 Additional Reading
  • 18. 18 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective Nikolaos Stylos | Jeremy Zwiegelaar: Big Data as a Game Changer: How Does It Shape Business Intelligence Within a Tourism and Hospitality Industry Context? https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-13-6339-9_11 Nikolaos Stylos: Technological evolution and tourist decision-making: a perspective article. http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/people/nikolaos-stylos/pub/204096607 Dale Southerton| Alastair Ulph: Sustainable Consumption: Multi-disciplinary Perspectives In Honour of Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, Oxford https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679355.001.0001/ acprof-9780199679355 Dale Southerton: Time, Consumption and the Co-ordination of Everyday Life https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230572515 Huw Thomas: A ‘Decent Cuppa’: Worker Power and Consumer Power in the Sri Lankan Tea Sector http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/people/huw-thomas/pub/204204382 Huw Thomas | Peter Turnbull: From horizontal to vertical labour governance: The International Labour Organisation (ILO)and decent work in global supply chains https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/from-horizontal-to-vertical-labourgovernance Paul Thompson | Frederick Harry Pitts: Bullshit About Jobs https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and- articles/rsa-blogs/2018/07/bullshit-about-jobs Virginai Vannucci | Eleanora Pantano: Digital human touchpoints? Insights from consumer-facing in-store services https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333737671_ Steven Vallas | Juliet B Schor: What Do Platforms Do? Understanding the Gig Economy https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-soc-121919-054857  
  • 19. 19 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective References 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0d2Dhv1C34 Beltagui, A., Sesis, A., & Stylos, N. (2019). 3D printing, makerspaces and innovation: a bricolage perspective. https:// publications.aston.ac.uk/id/eprint/39353/1/3DP_makerspaces_and_innovation.pdf 2 https://www.frederickharrypitts.com/a-world-beyond-work 3 https://www.ey.com/en_lu/ccb/how-do-you-find-clarity-in-the-midst-of-covid-19-crisis 4 https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/how-robots-change-the-world 5 Daniel Welch & Dale Southerton (2019) After Paris: transitions for sustainable consumption, Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy, 15:1, 31-44, DOI: 10.1080/15487733.2018.1560861 6 Geels, F.W., McMeekin, A., Milan, J., & Southerton, D., (2015), A critical appraisal of Sustainable Consumption and Production research: The reformist, revolutionary and reconfiguration positions, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 34: 1-12. 7 https://globalnews.ca/tag/climate-change/ 8 https://zapier.com/blog/move-away-from-sf-get-remote-job/ 9 https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-soc-121919-054857 10 https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-blog/blog/2018/11/book-review-humans-service-oup-2018-jeremias-prassl 11 https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/05/20/guy-standing-on-how-lockdowns-make-the-case-for-a-basic-income 12 https://futuresofwork.co.uk/2020/07/13/automation-and-crisis-arguing-the-future/ 13 https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54523
  • 20. 20 TheFutureofWorkandSkillsDevelopmentAnInitialPerspective www.futureagenda.org About Future Agenda Future Agenda is an open source think tank and advisory firm. We help organisations, large and small, to explore emerging opportunities, identify new growth platforms and develop game-changing innovations. Founded in 2010, Future Agenda has pioneered an open foresight approach that brings together senior leaders across business, academia, NFP and government. The aim is to connect the informed and influential, to challenge assumptions and build a more comprehensive view about the future that will help deliver positive, lasting impact. For more information and to have access to all our insights please visit www.futureagenda.org Contact: Dr. Tim Jones: tim.jones@futureagenda.org Caroline Dewing: caroline.dewing@futureagenda.org About University of Bristol School of Managment Bristol is one of the most popular and successful universities in the UK, ranked 58th globally (QS World University Rankings 2021). The University of Bristol School of Management’s vision is to empower leadership for a sustainable, inclusive and prosperous world through a progressive understanding of management and organisation in alliance with business, government and society. 78 per cent of the school’s research is recognised as “world-leading” or “internationally excellent” (REF 2014). For further information see www.bristol.ac.uk/management