As organisations variously react to a global pandemic that had been widely anticipated by experts, questions are now being raised around which of the many changes to the fabric of our society might outlast the pandemic? Which existing global trends will be accelerated or slow down? What new trends might emerge? We have been asked to share some views. As part of the World in 2030 global open foresight programme, we offer this initial suggestion of twelve future shifts that could influence, or be impacted by, the significant shifts in societies and economies responding to the Covid-19 pandemic. It covers a wide range of topics from international leadership, trade and healthcare to urban living, travel and privacy. Some have been in the mix for a while and are being elevated. Others are new responses to global change. We very much welcome your comments, edits and additions to build a comprehensive, informed and international perspective that can then be shared and used to help organisations consider the implications and prepare potential actions. Please do share, comment or contact us directly. @futureagenda

1. The World in 2030
Lasting Shifts in a Post Covid-19 Pandemic Society
March 2020

2. Lasting Shifts?
As organisations variously react to a global pandemic anticipated by many
experts, questions are being raised around what changes may last, which global
trends will be accelerated, which will slow, and what new ones might emerge.

3. Twelve Key Future Changes
As part of the World in 2030 global open foresight programme, this is an initial
suggestion of future shifts that may emerge from the significant changes to
economies and societies as they respond to the Covid-19 pandemic.

4. Proof of Immunity
Health and personal identity data are integrated as platforms emerge that allow
or require us to be validated in order to access key locations and services.
Proof of immunity and proof of identity are digitally unified for all.

5. Trust in Experts
There is renewed public confidence in people and organisations who really
know what they are talking about. Accredited, independent, expert bodies that
clearly explain the complex and coordinate connected responses are prized.

6. China Leading the World
With the US government failing on climate change and a slow response to
Covid-19, China’s ascendency in global leadership accelerates. Its discourse
around a greener, safer and healthier society transcends the American Dream.

7. Resistance to Sharing Space
People revalue their personal space, no matter how small. In cities, shared
transport systems adapt to accommodate only ‘validated’ strangers, while there
is further growth in smaller, micro-apartments for solo-living individuals.

8. Healthy Remote Working and Education
Remote home working and learning become a norm for many and
evolves to address the challenges of 24/7 work / life balance,
social isolation and increasingly sedentary lifestyles.

9. Higher Taxes
More nations agree the need for deeper pockets and improved public services
that can benefit all. The post-1980 drop in taxation is reversed as part of a shift
to reduce inequality, better empower societies and balance wealth creation.

10. Resilience by Design
Global supply chains evolve to be more flexible, shared regional supply webs.
Manufacturing shifts from centralised production to a smaller and distributed
approach. Competitors access shared, not proprietary, networks and systems.

11. Ecology Reorientation
Support for deeper collaboration and increased financial stimulus to mitigate
the broadening ecological crisis gains momentum. Communities of action
spanning industry, society and government coalesce for maximum impact.

12. Open Pharma
The need for fast, affordable healthcare responses at scale, stimulates the move
to more open and shared access to medicine development. With greater state
intervention and academic influence, big pharma moves towards open pharma.

13. Less Long-Haul Flying
Awareness of the climate and health risks of international flying align to change
demand: Businesses recognise and use the benefits of alternatives to face-to-
face meetings, while tourists seek more local / regional vacation options.

14. Surveillance Acquiescence
Recognition of the benefits of real-time surveillance and individual
behaviour monitoring during a crisis supports widespread acquiescence
to perpetual, national, digital surveillance infrastructures.

15. Increased Transparency
Many organisations shift to more open sharing of accessible information
that can be used by others to interpret, build and challenge insights.
Trust in data sets is reinforced by their usability as much as their source.

16. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141
www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda