What next for Scotland? Future of UK and Scotland & Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change event at Dynamic Earth on Monday 6 October 2014 http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/events/what-next-scotland The referendum result has raised questions for both the immediate and longer term future of Scotland and the rest of the UK. At this event, experts from the Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change offered some answers, looking at what happened on 18 September and what might happen in the weeks, months, and years ahead. As the nations of the UK enter what looks to be an unprecedented period of constitutional reconfiguration, this public event highlighted the most recent research by some of the UK's most respected academics, providing a framework for understanding the process and proposals put forth by the parties.

1. How Scotland Voted
John Curtice
Strathclyde University/ScotCen Social Research

2. The Data
•
32 Local Authority Counts (of very varying size)
•
Census Data on Social Character of an Authority
•
Past Voting Results (especially the 2014 European elections)

3. Turnout Difference
84
86
88
54
54
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Low
Medium
High
Turnout in May
Turnout
Change since May

4. The Age Gap
47
44
39
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Low
Medium
High
Proportion Aged 65 Plus
% Yes

5. The Class Gap
50
43
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Low
Medium
High
% in Professional & Managerial Occupations
% Yes

6. The Deprivation Gap
40
42
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Low
Medium
High
% in 15% most deprived neighbourhoods
% Yes

7. The Migration Gap
48
43
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Low
Medium
High
Proportion Born in Rest of UK
% Yes

8. The Party Pattern
37
46
47
40
42
47
49
44
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Low
Medium
High
% Yes
SNP
Labour
Conservative

9. How Yes Struggled in More Middle Class SNP Areas
42
40
49
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
ProfMan Low
ProfMan High
% Yes
SNP Low
SNP High

10. An In-Between Gap
40
42
51
28
28
32
17
24
34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Low
Medium
High
% in 15% Most Deprived Neighbourhoods
% Yes
SNP 2014
Lab 2014

11. Summary
•
Yes made only limited progress in especially increasing turnout in most disengaged parts of Scotland
•
Geography of Yes Vote reflected the polls – places with more affluent, older and non- Scots born had lower Yes totals
•
Created a sharper social divide than evident in SNP support.