In September 2014 Scotland will hold an historic referendum on its constitutional future. Migration is an important aspect of debates surrounding this ballot: the UK government has emphasised its desire to restrict immigration to Britain, whilst the Scottish Government views net immigration as a valuable contributor to the economic and demographic growth of Scotland. This event explored these contrasting positions and draws on new research (using secondary datasets, social attitudes data and interviews with employers, students and local authorities) undertaken as part of the ESRC’s 'Future of the UK and Scotland' programme. The speakers considered the challenges and opportunities that Scotland faces in devising an immigration policy attuned to its particular needs, whatever the outcome of the referendum. The Politicians and Professionals is a series of seminars for January and February organised by the David Hume Institute in conjunction with the Young Academy of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and supported by the ICAS; the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, the Law Society of Scotland and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

1. Should Scotland have its own
Immigration Policy?
Prof. Allan Findlay1, Dr David McCollum1,
Professor David Bell2 and Dr Jakub Bijak3
ESRC Centre for Population Change
University of St Andrews1, University of Stirling2
University of Southampton3
27th February 2014

2. Structure of Presentation
• Context – what we know about Scotland and migration
• Context – what we do not know – forecasts of migration
• Demographic drivers of migration policy
• Employer perspectives on migration – the policy
implications
• Economic perspectives and public opinion – policy
implications
• Conclusions – migration policy options for Scotland
2

3. Net Migration to Scotland
Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1951-1952
1954-1955
1957-1958
1960-1961
1963-1964
1966-1967
1969-1970
1972-1973
1975-1976
1978-1979
1981-1982
1984-1985
1987-1988
1990-1991
1993-1994
1996-1997
1999-2000
2002-2003
2005-2006
2008-2009
2011-2012
Year to 30 June
Persons('000s)

4. 4
Percentage of usual residents in EU27
countries that are foreign born, 2011
• The proportion of foreign-born
nationals in England is among the
highest in the European Union
• Scotland’s foreign born
population remains among the
lowest.
Source: Authors own analysis of Eurostat, ONS and NRS data

5. What we know from the 2011 census
Ageing Scotland : Youthful Migrants
5
Scotland’s age structure,
2001-11
Migrants – 25-29 cohort: 15%Scottish – 25-29: 6.5%
Proportion of non-UK born population who arrived
aged 0-4 years Scotland and England by region, 2011
Proportion of non-UK born population who arrived aged
25-29 years Scotland and England by region, 2011

6. Net migration to Scotland by age group
6
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
NumberofMigrants(Net)
rUK
Overseas
Net Migration Flows by Age Group: Scotland 2001-02 to 2010-11

7. What we know from the 2011 census;
Scotland’s Global Reach

8. Is immigration to Scotland distinctive?
Origin of migrants
Scotland England
Place of Birth
Percentage of
non-UK born
population
Place of Birth
Percentage of non-
UK born
population
1 Poland 15.0% 1 India 9.3%
2 India 6.4% 2 Poland 7.7%
3 Republic of Ireland 6.2% 3 Pakistan 6.5%
4 Germany 6.0% 4 Republic of Ireland 5.4%
5 Pakistan 5.4% 5 Germany 3.6%
6 United States of America 4.3% 6 Bangladesh 2.8%
7 China 4.2% 7 Nigeria 2.6%
8 South Africa 2.9% 8 South Africa 2.5%
9 Nigeria 2.6% 9 United States of America 2.4%
10 Canada 2.6% 10 Jamaica 2.2%
8
Top ten non-UK countries of birth in England and Scotland 2011
Source: Authors own analysis of 2011 Census (ONS and NRS)

9. Briefing Paper

10. What we do not know:
Future Migration to/from Scotland
• Migration forecasting is always a very uncertain
process
• State of the art (NRS projections, 2012-based):
– Overall net migration: internal and international
– Three variants, with net migration converging to +7,000
(Low), +15,500 (Base) and +24,000 (High) by mid-2018
• What our study adds:
– Looking at different directions of migration flows
– Probabilistic analysis and quantification of uncertainty
– Formal combination of data series and expert opinion
– Expert justifications for specific groups of migrants

11. CPC Internal and International
Migration Forecasts
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

12. What we do not know:
Best estimates of migration futures
• Future migration flows to and from Scotland are
highly uncertain
• There is greatest uncertainty about international
immigration to Scotland
• Emigration from Scotland will likely increase in the
near future, irrespective of the referendum outcome
• Migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK
will remain at similar levels to the present, again
largely regardless of the constitutional arrangement

13. Demographic drivers
of migration policy
• Current UK policy has no demographic driver – only
a net migration cap
• Current Scottish Government has a demographic
target = ‘to match average EU15 population
growth..2007-17’- (next slide shows it was on track
to meet the target in four of the last six years -
thanks to net migration gains)
‘It is important that we continue to attract more people of working age to Scotland’ (Scottish Government
webpage: ‘Scotland Performs’)
‘With full control over immigration policy the Scottish Government would be able to set a controlled
immigration policy framework that supports the needs of Scottish businesses, universities and ensure
long-term economic success and prosperity for
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Performance/scotPerforms/purpose/population Scotland’
13

14. Immigration as a demographic driver
linked to Scotland’s population target
14
Annual rates of population change: Scotland and EU15 average 1996-2012
Source: Eurostat and NRS data, cited in Packwood et al, 2014
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
Annualpopulationgrowthrate
EU 15 average annual population growth rate -
Scottish annual population growth rate -

15. Disaggregation of migration matters
15
Scottish domiciled students
(forecast)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
NumberofstudentsThousands
Africa Asia North America
Asia
Trends in key international
student flows
North
America
Africa
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
Thousands
Current Projected
Source: Authors’ analysis: 2002/03 – 2012/13 HESA data;
Tindal, Findlay and Wright, forthcoming

16. Percentage of students from outside
the UK, by region of origin and place
of study, 2011-12
Source: Authors calculations, using HESA data 2011/12

17. Could Migration Policy
be established for UK regions?
5%
7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 14%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Proportionofnon-UKborn
Proportion of population born outside UK 2011
Source: NRS ONS data, cited in Packwood et al, 2013

18. Wages and Proportion of Foreign
Born Residents (2012)
Scotland
London and
South-East
0
5
10
15
20
25
£440 £460 £480 £500 £520 £540 £560 £580
ProportionForeignBorn
Gross Weekly Wage (£)
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2012, Annual Population Survey 2012

19. Employers views: immigration and
constitutional change
• Employer views
– Views on immigration policy (in context of constitutional change
debate)
– Justifications for views on immigration policy
– Preferences regarding future immigration policy in Scotland
– Role in shaping immigration policy
• Policy implications
19

20. Importance of migration related issues, by sector
(via 2013 online survey, 700+ responses)
20

21. Employer views: narratives
Signifiers of ‘value’ Narrative
Demographic compensation for
ageing of domestic population
‘We need more people in Scotland, not less… our population is
getting older and that’s not a recipe for success… so we
definitely need more migrants in Scotland’
Wayne. Inter-company organisation
Spurs economic growth and net
fiscal benefit
‘High end immigration is what is required to drive the economy
recovery…and these people are paying huge quantities of tax, so
it makes no sense whatsoever to limit it’.
Paula, finance company
Fills skills and labour gaps ‘Dentists are in very short supply in Scotland… and Romania
has got exactly the same dentistry qualification, so academically
they are absolutely a hundred per cent qualified for the role’.
Daniel, recruitment firm
Positive work ethic of migrants They don’t rely on benefits… it’s not in their culture’.
Thomas, hospitality recruitment firm
21

22. Employer preferences
• Support for freedom of movement within EU
‘The most important thing is the EU because the free movement of people and goods is vital
for us… so it is important that Scotland, and the rest of the UK, remains in Europe’
James, representative, logistics & transport
• UK immigration policy: (increasingly) restrictive and South-East centric
‘We definitely need migrants, the rest of the UK, actually sorry the South East of England in
particular probably doesn’t need them and they have got some real problems with
immigration… but Scotland’s problems in that area are not the same at all and we shouldn’t
allow UK immigration to be dictated by London I’m afraid’.
Wayne, inter-company organisation
• Pragmatic policy measures, but also positive political rhetoric
‘Alex Salmond has positively welcomed them [migrants] and said that they’ll be welcomed
to Scotland… there’s the racism aspect down in England where they’re saying they’re all
thieves, gypsies and beggars, so people are coming up to Scotland because they know that
there’s less racism here’
Thomas, recruitment, hospitality
22

23. Immigration policy: employer influence
• Referendum: chance to press for a more favourable immigration
policy
‘Our position of constitutional flux gives us scope to revise things that maybe looked a
bit settled and to see if there are ways in which a policy environment can be formed to
ur further advantage, for instance in relation to the Scottish immigration regime’.
Toby, representative, education
• Extent and efficacy of lobbying
‘Given that the Yes campaign makes a big deal out of the oil industry, they really need
to talk to the oil industry... they’re engaging with organisations like the Wood Group
because of Sir Ian Wood, but they are not engaging with the vast majority of other
businesses that are actually supporting the sector and who produce more money for
the UK than these guys do’.
Olivia, oil and gas
23

24. Employer research:
policy implications
• Employer views
– Sufficient grounds for a ‘different’ migration policy for Scotland
– Current immigration policies oriented towards needs of South-East
– Constitutional change debate: prospect of a more favourable immigration
regime in Scotland
24
NO - Scotland remains in the UK YES - Scotland leaves the UK
Opportunities Sub-national immigration
policies: distinct measures within
broader UK framework
Political powers to enact its own
immigration policies
Relative public support/tolerance
Challenges Practical & political barriers to
sub-national immigration policies
Bound to ‘one size fits all’ UK
immigration policy
Need a similar immigration policy
to rest of UK to remain in the CTA
No influence over EU migration
Public hostility

25. The Political Economy of Migration
• Employer views important, but migration policy influenced by voter
preferences
• Public perceptions generally negative:
– labour market concerns,
– welfare concerns,
– racial or cultural concerns
• welfare concerns play a the more important role in determination of
attitudes to further immigration than labour market concerns,
• strong evidence that racial or cultural prejudice is an important
component to attitudes towards immigration; however, this is restricted
to immigration from countries with ethnically different populations
Source: Dustmann and Preston (2007)
25

26. Hourly Wages of Immigrants 2012
26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Poland Pakistan Other Scotland Republic
of Ireland
Northern
Ireland
England Wales India
HourlyWageIndexRelativetoWageof
Natives=100
Country of Birth
England
Scotland
Country of
Residence

27. Preferences for changes in immigration
27

28. Immigration good or bad?
28

29. Further evidence: COMPAS public opinion research
October 2013; 4,200+ responses
29
• Scotland: more welcoming/less hostile towards
migration
– Scotland: 58% desire reductions in immigration
– England & Wales: 75% desire reductions in immigration
• Support for Scotland controlling its own immigration
policy
– 60% Scottish Government, 31% UK government
• Yes voters less opposed to immigration than No voters
– 58% of No voters desire a reduction in immigration
– 28% of Yes voters desire a reduction in immigration

30. Voting intentions and attitudes to migration
30
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Too low About right Too high Don't know
Yes
No
Don't know
Voting Intention
Do you think the level of migration into Scotland
in the last decade has been:

31. Views on immigration post-independence
31
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Yes
No
Don't know
Voting Intention

32. Views on immigration by age group
32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Too low About right Too high Don't know
Percent
16-25
25-49
50-64
65+

33. UK Points Based System
The points-based system consists of five tiers. These are:
• Tier 1 - for highly skilled workers, such as scientists and entrepreneurs
• Tier 2 - for skilled workers with a job offer, such as teachers and nurses
• Tier 4 - for students
• Tier 5 - for temporary workers, such as musicians coming to play in a
concert, and participants in the youth mobility scheme.
• Tier 3 is currently suspended.
33

34. UK Points Based System
34
Source: Border Agency

35. Quebec Points Based System
35

36. Feasibility of sub-national immigration policy
• Political consent from both sub-national and national
governments
– Acceptable to public(s)
– Effectiveness in meeting objective(s)
– Stable within devolved settlement
36

37. White Paper Proposals on Immigration
• “We plan to continue in the current Common Travel Area with the rest
of the UK and Ireland.”
• “For non-EU nationals, independence will enable us to develop and
operate a controlled, transparent and efficient immigration system. This
Government will take forward a points-based approach targeted at
particular Scottish requirements.”
• “We plan to lower the current financial maintenance thresholds and
minimum salary levels for entry, to better align them with Scottish
average wages and cost of living.”
• “This Government plans to reintroduce the post-study work visa.”
• “We propose that a Scottish Asylum Agency should oversee asylum
applications.”
37

38. Constraints on immigration policy
with independence (e.g. Ireland)
• Current UK-Ireland arrangements
• Non-EEA nationals need a visa
• Immigrants who take Irish citizenship would be eligible to travel to
UK
• Irish naturalisation process. Applicants must:
• Be of good character
• Have had a period of 1 year continuous reckonable residence in the
State immediately before the date of application and, during the 8
years preceding that, have had a total reckonable residence in the
State amounting 4 years.
• Intend in good faith to reside in the State after naturalisation
38

39. Conclusions
• Demographic arguments may favour a positive policy approach in
Scotland towards migration
• Employers recognise some economic benefits from immigration
• Economic arguments need to be balanced against public opinion on
immigration
• A distinctive migration policy has been mapped out in the White Paper,
but a devolved settlement could also shape immigration to fit Scotland’s
needs
• Arguably, while an independent policy might have slightly stronger
policy levers, a devolved migration policy might face fewer constraints in
terms of implementation
39

40. Thank you for listening!
40

41. The following screen is for back up
41

42. Model and Method
Variant
Scenario
Migration
Scotland to the
rest of the UK
Independence
Gradual
2011-21
Gradual
2014-21
Gradual
2016-21
Step change
in 2016
Status quo
Status quo
The rest of the
UK to Scotland
Overseas to
Scotland
Scotland to
overseas
Equal weights
… … … … …
Prediction of the
referendum
outcome
• Forecasting approach: Bayesian time series model,
with additional expert information