What next for Scotland? Future of UK and Scotland & Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change event at Dynamic Earth on Monday 6 October 2014 http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/events/what-next-scotland The referendum result has raised questions for both the immediate and longer term future of Scotland and the rest of the UK. At this event, experts from the Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change offered some answers, looking at what happened on 18 September and what might happen in the weeks, months, and years ahead. As the nations of the UK enter what looks to be an unprecedented period of constitutional reconfiguration, this public event highlighted the most recent research by some of the UK's most respected academics, providing a framework for understanding the process and proposals put forth by the parties.

1. Why Scotland voted No* Ailsa Henderson University of Edinburgh
(*or why 45% of Scots voted Yes)

2. Scottish Referendum Study
•
Methodology
•
3 waves
•
Wave 1: 22 August-17 September (rolling cross section)
•
Wave 2: 22 September-ongoing
•
Wave 3: March 2015
•
Fieldwork: YouGov
•
Sample size: 4849
•
Who voted Yes and who voted No?
•
Demographics
•
Risk aversion, certainty and national identity
•
Risk perception and attitudes to change

3. Demographics I
56
47
49
72
51
46
42
59
61
44
53
51
29
49
54
58
41
39
Women
Men
Scotland
rUK
oUK
None
Catholic
CoS
Other
Sex
Born
Relg Den
No
Yes

4. Demographics: Age
47
47
48
52
56
69
53
53
52
48
44
31
16-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
+70
Age
No
Yes

5. Demographics: How younger people voted
52
49
40
48
51
60
16-17
18-24
25-29
Age
No
Yes

6. Modelling vote choice: Demographics
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Income
Social housing
Born in Scotland
Catholic
Presbyterian
Female
Age

7. ‘Yes’ voting by risk-willingness
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Not at
all
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Very
Intending to vote 'Yes'
How willing to take risks?

8. Modelling vote choice: Certainty and national identity
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Like Salmond
Scottish not British
British not Scottish
Certainty independence
Risk tolerance

9. Risk Perception: Consequences
If YES
Yes
No
If NO
Yes
No
Economy worse
Weaker voice
Join EU
Keep pound
Rich gap smaller
Better off personally
5.7
11.3
74.6
87.8
75.1
46.3
81.1
82.4
10.9
24.2
10.5
3.5
Spending cuts
UK leave EU
Benefit cuts
Rich gap wider
More powers
85.1
65.8
77.4
87.5
10.4
17.4
44.0
33.2
28.9
60.9

10. Modelling vote choice: Risk perception
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Personally better off
Rich gap smaller
Join EU
Keep pound
Weaker voice
Economy worse
If YES vote:
Rich gap wider
Benefits cut
UK leaves EU
Spending cuts
More powers
If NO vote:

11. More likely to expect further devolution
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
week 1
week 2
week 3
week 4
More powers likely
more powers unlikely

12. Impact of campaign on vote choice (week 1)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Better off
Rich gap smaller
Join EU
Keep pound
Economy worse
IF YES:
Rich gap wider
More powers
If NO:
Scottish not British
Certainty consequences
Social housing
Female
Presbyterian
Age

13. Impact of campaign on vote choice (weeks 1 & 4)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Better off
Rich gap smaller
Join EU
Keep pound
Economy worse
IF YES:
Rich gap wider
More powers
If NO:
Scottish not British
Certainty consequences
Social housing
Female
Presbyterian
Age

14. Extra data

15. Political interest
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
International politics
UK politics
Scottish politics
Independence referendum
Interest in Politics

16. Levels of political interest over the course of the campaign
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK politics
Scottish politics
independence referendum
Chart Title
week 1
week 2
week 3
week 4

17. Positive vs negative campaigning
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Personally better off
Rich gap smaller
Join EU
Keep pound
Weaker voice
Economy worse
If YES vote:
Rich gap wider
Benefits cut
UK leaves EU
Spending cuts
More powers
If NO vote:

18. If Scotland votes No: what do people want?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Power over new policy
areas
More power over existing
areas
More influence over
central decision making

19. Where powers should lie
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Energy
Welfare benefits
Pensions
Tax levels
Immigration
Defence & foreign affairs
% opting for UK/Scottish Parliament
UK
Scottish

20. Demographics II
57
50
40
45
57
47
52
51
45
52
51
52
43
50
60
55
43
53
48
49
55
48
49
48
Owned
Mortgage
Social house
Rent
Middle
Working
Degree
Non-degree
1st q
2nd q
3rd q
4th q
Housing
Class
Educ
Income
No
Yes