This is an edited version of a presentation at the March 19, 2010 Books 2.0 event at Olswang in London see http://www.books20.net. More comments are available via the Twitter #books20 hashtag. Topics: the toxic assumptions of the music industry and what book publishers could learn from them, the reality of upside-down consumers (digital access first), the ecology of selling access vs selling copies, the Napster-Moment in eBooks - and what to do about (or rather, with) it, the characteristics of 'Reading 2.0', the new definition of books, media as a service and the potentials of 'content in the cloud', the future role of publishers... and much more. More details at http://gerd.fm/az1L3s

1. Books 2.0:
The Future of Books,
Reading & Publishing
Gerd Leonhard, London, March 19, 2010
www.mediafuturist.com
twitter.com/gleonhard

2. The Music Industry: a great example for

3. “What does the Future look
like, and how can we adapt
to it...?”
Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009

4. The Future:Upside-down ‘Consumers’
Digital access to books will come first,
physical copies will be
second.

5. 2 clear mid- to long-term trends:
In Commerce, the importance of
many physical things will decline -
and almost anything ‘digital’ will grow
In Media, anything that provides
‘only copies’ will decline in
importance - almost anything that
provides context, relevance and
‘real experiences’ will grow

6. In the Future of Books,
Retail may well become...
Re-Mail
Re-Link
Re-Package

7. And maybe, on-demand
Source: Open Parachute Blog

8. The Ecology of Access is dramatically different...

9. Distribution of ‘Copies’ as the main
income stream is probably:

10. What does the Future look like,
and how can we delay it?

11. Welcome to the past ;)
What does the Future look like,
and how can we delay it?

12. An crucial requirement: Trusting the Users
From the recent survey: “Essentials of Digital
Books from the Consumer’s Point of View “
*DBW via Slideshare

13. Books: the Napster Moment is here
Ubiquitous availability of digital copies of
books is absolutely certain, and imminent

14. “The People
formerly known
as Consumers”

15. Growth in eBook adoption and the
resulting changes in book publishing
are likely be to be extremely
exponential ...not linear
(Ray Kurzweil Huffington Post)

16. Behavior Changes also brings new dangers;)

17. Soon: The other 3 Billion (O3B)
Wikipedia: “by allowing direct connection to core networks and 3G Cellular/
WiMAX towers, the O3b Networks system will completely change the
economics of telecommunications infrastructure in the world's fastest-
growing markets for communications services”

18. Mobile
Social
Connected
Transparent
Real-Time

19. Reading 2.0
Source: Nokia Labs

20. And what’s new about that......?
• Controlled by the users
• Cross-media by default
• Interactive
• Inter-connected and social,
by default
• Location-aware
• Blurring the lines between
reading stuff (fka Books)
and watching (fka TV)

21. “Walk into the Book”
Augmented Reality
3D Screens
Holography
Smell

22. User Interfaces make all the difference
The computer is work.
The iPhone is ... kind of work.
The iPad / Tablet is... not work

23. Reading 2.0: ‘Not Work’

24. Books become... Radio... TV?
Via Paidcontent UK: Penguin CEO John Makinson
The Definition of
“Book” is up for
grabs

25. The Key to Monetizing: Immersion.

26. Touch = Immersion = Value = $$

27. Media Evolutions
Past: obtaining information (data) and
communication was (is) important
Present: access to relevant content
becomes more important
Soon: context / social / real-time and
the experience becomes the crucial
differentiator

28. C
on
Re
Packaging is
T EX lev
T an
ce
is is
Content is King

29. What matters is no longer that we
can actually connect and ‘download‘
all of it but who we connect with and
what we actually get i.e.
Content, Context,
Curation,
The Experience

30. Everything is shifting into...
...and only then it may also ‘embody’

32. Content as a Service (CaaS)

33. ‘Sell Access’ Model
‘Sell Copy’ Model

34. This is happening pretty much everywhere
From a packaged-goods i.e.
‘stuff’ mentality to a service and
‘experience’ mentality

35. versus

36. Content 2.0: the pricing logic flips
Price Users
100
75
50
25
0
Was Will be

37. Books 2.0: where is the value?
Content i.e. ‘The Words’
Context i.e. Why? How?
Curation & Services 15%
“People Like Me”
Interactivity 30%
5%
Packaging & Formats
10%
20% 20%
100%
Content / Copy

38. No recipe. Yet.
Content i.e. ‘the words’ 11%
22%
Context i.e. why?
Curation & Services
33%
People Like Me
Interactivity 33%
Packaging & Format
20%
30% 40% 5%
45%
10%
10% 5%
15% 20%

39. I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer
Advertisers
Bundles Telecoms
Subscriptions Device Makers
Flat Rates Consumers
Governments Social Payments
Micro-Payments

40. I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer
SubscriptionsMicro-Payments
Advertisers
Consumers
Bundles Telecoms
Flat Rates
Social Payments
Governments Device Makers

41. Time & Place Value
Packaging Price

42. 4 Examples

43. Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated
New Ecosystem
Expensive

44. Not mere consumption... Access, Packaging... Service!

45. Books 2.0 <> Telecom 2.0
Experience Platform
Content Pipe
Service Pipe
Data
Pipe

46. ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain:
Social Networking
Content Services
Communication 2.0
Money 2.0
eLearning

47. Control ≠ Money
Egosystem 
Ecosystem

48. The Future

49. Forcing to
buy is like...
forcing to
love

50. Friction is Fiction

51. “Sharing” is not a negotiable feature

52. The primary challenge to creating new
ecosystems: depending on others...?

53. Hyper-Competition
 Hyper-Collaboration

54. A definitive future: Social Books
Social feeds have enabled content discovery through friends
Overwhelmed with choices, consumers increasingly turn to each other
Social networks proliferate to third party sites, friends go everywhere
Source: Gigya

55. Books online = conversation = free marketing
Kevin Kelly: "In the new world of books,
every bit informs another; every page
reads all the other pages”

56. Retailer Publisher Writer
The Future Role of Publishers...?

57. Publisher 2.0
Upstream Downstream
Source: STLPartners /
Telco20.net

58. Publisher 2.0
• Filtering, curation, context-making
• Aggregation and connecting things
• All that boring logistical & practical
stuff (aka ‘services’ and
platforms)
• All things that require serious scale
(yes, that does still matter) or real
leverage
• All that expertise that is non-core
for the writer

59. The Future Role of Publishers...

60. Publisher 2.0 Bu t. ..
• Writers will need to take on a lot
more responsibilities, and become
equal partners
• The financial relationships will shift
more towards agenting models
• Tim OReilly: “...add more value than
you extract” may be a tough mission

61. Noise  Attraction

62. The rising tide: but where is YOUR boat?

63. Advertising will be re-born
as... Content - and we will
actually want to see it!
Advertising will
continue to pay
for a lot of
‘free’ content
Mobile, video, social, location, augmented reality
= major shifts in what ‘advertising’ actually means

64. Because...

65. Thanks for your attention!
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