Gerd Leonhard Future Of Radio 2007

Gerd Leonhard
Presentation at RadioDays 2007

Future or no future for radio?
www.mediafuturist.com

New book out next week:
Free at
www.endofcontrol.com
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008 1

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio today: competition coming from all sides

Social Networks and Blogs

Car Audio Systems

Wimax Music
Ipod
Podcasts
iphone
Satellite Radio
Mobile Music

What’s good about all this: Choice
What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Across the world, 1.1 Billion
People use the Internet, 1.4
Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion
use Mobile Phones

So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future,
and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio)



The Net Generation: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

I program my media
- it does not program
me!


The key drivers of Change SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Broadband
• Mobility
• Social Networks
• Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC)
• Total Fragmentation of the Audiences
• Globalization (and localization)
• Convergence


SMS +41 79 79 353 84



Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

W e a r e h ea d i ng int o a a cc el e ra t i ng
c o nverg enc e o f A ud i o a nd V i d eo .


A few shocking facts from the U.S. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

In the US: tuning
out of Radio is
guaranteed


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio ad
revenues
are not
going
away -
they just
won’t be
growing.


and then comes...


SMS +41 79 79 353 84

‘How’ will matter less and less. ‘What’ will matter more and more


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Remember when Radio had a

Monopoly in
Attention?


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three


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where
you simply put all the stations that you
want to listen to.
A canvas that you can always have with
you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter
how you receive the content.

Radio fills the need
to filter Choice.

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Consumers are, now more than ever before,
seeking consolidated, trustworthy content,
recognition and community - even more when it
comes to mobile and Internet entertainment

This is still the biggest
opportunity in Radio.

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

New technologies often disrupt ecosystems
but always make the market bigger


The De-Walling: SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible -
DRM is the past
• Music as a service will become a default setting, and
the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending
• Creation of new revenue flows will be more important
than controlling distribution
• The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining
more power by the minute
• Music licensing will be drastically simplified

Isn’t Radio the definition
of Music as a Service?


Thanks to the Net Generation & the
Digital Natives,
Social Networks on the
Internet are the
Next Radio


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The People formerly
known as Listeners
(aka Consumers)


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The Medium formerly
known as Radio


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Soon, most of them will
get most of their ‘Radio’
via any digital network
- the Internet dominates

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Why is your station not broadcasting on
Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Because

In all Media, Push is
becoming Pull


Just different words for the same thing...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Broadcasting
Streaming Tubesocking
Public Playlisting
Performance Download
Listening Streamripping
PodcatchingCopy
Buffering
Caching Digital
Renting Phonographic
Delivery (DPD)

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The most important development in the
Context of Radio Licensing is The
Flat Rate for Digital Music


And for Public Radio Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The Net Generation will not
continue to pay a public
Radio or TV License without
archiving, time-shifting,
place-shifting and device
shifting - i.e. with build-in
DELIVERY options

The Reality is: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine
• Digital Radio IS Distribution
• From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio
MUST offer time / place / device shifting

which is... Distribution
• Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The bottom line:
In media, Friction is now

Fiction

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Very soon -
listening IS receiving


A Logic Challenge Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio is Free
Records / CDs are not

If the Internet is the New
Radio -
are Copies are ‘free’ ?


EU Radio in 3-5 years Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50%
converged with the Net
• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way
• Video and Audio converge
• Community features are a standard
• Geography fades, borders become soft
• License is both questioned and then expanded
(based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)
• Advertising2.0 emerges
• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand


EU Radio in 10 years Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• The term “Radio” simply refers to
‘curated programming’
• Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge
digital library
• The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen
versus own) distinction is over
• Everything is on demand - few or
nothing remains scheduled


The trigger factors: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere
• WiBro in the car
• 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully
deployed How
long?
• Radios with WLAN chips
• Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)
• Mobile computing devices that talk
effortlessly to each other
• Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control

What is good about Radio? Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

What is good about Audio on the Internet?

***
*** **
• Free or feels like free
• Ubiquitous

*
• Easy to use for anyone

**
• Does not require engagement

***
• Trusted, professional curators

***
• Known brands

*
• Local context
• Strong tradition
• Great way to discover music

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio’s Future is on the
Internet, with the Net
Generation, and with fully
integrated Content Delivery


The 5 Inevitables Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

1.Radio must support time-shifting

2.Radio must support space-shifting

3.Radio must support sharing

4.Radio must support interactivity

5.Radio must support community


Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


This is where the growth is Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


The new currencies in Media Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Getting (and keeping) attention
• Trust
• Influence
• Reputation


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

And advertising follows the trends of
mass-personalization
Souce: Booz Hamilton Report


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

From
Impression to
Relevance


Integrate the audience! Provide a Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

platform!

The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after
maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS)


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

You must take Radio’s walls down,
too:
• Archive Access
• Web-based access on all platforms
• Radio as social medium
Don’t hide behind any wall.


Changes in the content industries

Content 1.0 Content 2.0
Distribution Attention

Shelf Space Mind-share
Mass Marketing Niche Marketing
Monolog Dialog
Influence &
Control
Reputation
Control Attention & Trust
Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist

So if I ran the circus, I would... Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows
via embedded players), turn them into channels on
social networks
• Turn my listeners into active network members, roll
out Engagement programs
• Offer archives of everything, no matter what
• Mobilize my radio station
• Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop
licensing
• Lobby for a digital music flat rate
• Push converged service: audio, video, text
• Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE

Thanks for listening

www.mediafuturist.com

New book out next week:
Free at
www.endofcontrol.com


Gerd Leonhard Future Of Radio 2007

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