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Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




       The Future of Advertising, Marketing &
       Media - the next 5 years
       London, November 11, 2008
       Gerd Leonhard
       www.mediafuturist.com


       ‣ Futurist
       ‣ Strategist
       ‣ Author
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



        It’s not about Technology




       Emerging cultural practices
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

  It’s about PEOPLE
                                                         Brands

                                               Content   Media




                Source: Flickr hillarylmrore
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               A reflection...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



    Marketing is Cultural Matchmaking




                               http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


  Broadband access will soon be...free
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


  Some devices will soon ‘feel like ‘free’
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

          Truly connected ... what’s the big deal?

       We decide who gets to market to us
         We value trust more than anything
                         We actually collaborate
                         We sell our Attention
  Data becomes enormously valuable
                      Collaborate or Die
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Looking up to... ourselves... each other
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The Future: drastic role changes
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 The Future: more and
 more fragmentation..
 and Aggregation

         Agency
           2.0
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



Once technology becomes dead-simple...
The next dead-easies
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

 Expect big changes when that happens
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

This makes music industry changes look like a minor nuisance
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

              The Future of Books & Print
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               Some stuff you may want to know about...
  ★ The cashless society (e-money, mobile cash)
  ★ Mashed Access Networks
  ★ New display technologies and mobile projection
  ★ Device morphing
  ★ Fuel cells and other new battery technologies
  ★ ePaper / the digital book
  ★ Frappers / 3D Printing
  ★ The rise of Multi-Touch Technologies
  ★ Decentralization, Social Production & Crowdsourcing
  ★ Time, location, device shifting is expected everywhere
  ★ ‘Mobile Me’ becomes default: mobile = life depository
  ★ Smart Clothing
  ★ Cloud Computing
  ★ The Internet of Things
The Internet of Things
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               Content: UGC is a MAJOR force
Good news for you:
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


      Finding and being Found is what matters
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



      Searching & finding goes social
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




A central part of many future campaigns
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


       Sharing Economy Logic
                 Share the Output (i.e. publish, re-
                 mix, PFE, life-stream...)
                 Share Input (i.e. remuneration in
                 cash, attention, reputation...)
                 Share the Thruput (i.e. usage data...
                 meta content... attention trails...)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




      Service Creators
      Product Creators
      Content Creators
        Content Users

                 Co-Creation
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Image via flickr.com/photos/spursfan_ace/



     People now pay more to express
     themselves, and less to consume
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




   People used to pay for Content -
   Now they pay for Meta Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                      Users =

                  = Users
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                         Advertising =



                    <=> Users
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



     A side effect of Broadband Culture
  An increasing number of people are
now looking to contribute, to connect, to
    do something truly meaningful


                Money
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                       In the sharing economy
                       money can be poisonous
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                               This is over
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 Moving from take-down to permission
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               “Trustol” - or death
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
                               Copy Based Revenues
                               Attention Based Revenues
                                                                       10.0



                                                                       7.5



                                                                      5.0



                                                                      2.5



Was                                                                   0
                      Is
                                  Soon
                                             Near Future
                                                           Mid-term Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



       Together, Broadband Culture and
       Mobility will re-define how we think
       about:

               • Privacy
               • Authority
               • Ownership / Copyright
               • ‘Selling’ (and Marketing)
               • Production Requirements
               • Work
               • Education
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               Massive Disruption... + - ?
  Production Competition Authority
     Copyright Ownership Control




‘Developing’ Countries                   ‘Developed’ Countries

Empowered Individuals                    Incumbent Companies

Professional Amateurs                   Authorized Professionals
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

             Crowd + Cloud = The Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



Advertising, Take 2
                                                         Trust



                                                   Rewards

                                           Value
                               Relevance
  Permission
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

           The Open - Closed
           Challenge


                               Closed
         Open


                               Orderly
     Chaotic


                                Safe
   Untested
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



      It’s all in the Mix and in the timing



                                               Orderly
  Untested



Open                                          Closed
  Chaotic                                       Safe
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                        Thanks for listening!
  ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
  ★ twitter: gleonhard
  ★ facebook: gleonhard
  ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com
  ★ lifestream at www.gerdstream.com

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The Future Of Advertising, Marketing and Media Gerd Leonhard in London

  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Advertising, Marketing & Media - the next 5 years London, November 11, 2008 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author
  • 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It’s not about Technology Emerging cultural practices
  • 3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It’s about PEOPLE Brands Content Media Source: Flickr hillarylmrore
  • 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A reflection...
  • 5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Marketing is Cultural Matchmaking http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/
  • 7. Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Broadband access will soon be...free
  • 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some devices will soon ‘feel like ‘free’
  • 10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Truly connected ... what’s the big deal? We decide who gets to market to us We value trust more than anything We actually collaborate We sell our Attention Data becomes enormously valuable Collaborate or Die
  • 11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Looking up to... ourselves... each other
  • 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future: drastic role changes
  • 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future: more and more fragmentation.. and Aggregation Agency 2.0
  • 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Once technology becomes dead-simple...
  • 15. The next dead-easies Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Expect big changes when that happens
  • 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This makes music industry changes look like a minor nuisance
  • 18. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Books & Print
  • 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some stuff you may want to know about... ★ The cashless society (e-money, mobile cash) ★ Mashed Access Networks ★ New display technologies and mobile projection ★ Device morphing ★ Fuel cells and other new battery technologies ★ ePaper / the digital book ★ Frappers / 3D Printing ★ The rise of Multi-Touch Technologies ★ Decentralization, Social Production & Crowdsourcing ★ Time, location, device shifting is expected everywhere ★ ‘Mobile Me’ becomes default: mobile = life depository ★ Smart Clothing ★ Cloud Computing ★ The Internet of Things
  • 20. The Internet of Things Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content: UGC is a MAJOR force
  • 22. Good news for you: Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Finding and being Found is what matters
  • 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Searching & finding goes social
  • 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A central part of many future campaigns
  • 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Sharing Economy Logic Share the Output (i.e. publish, re- mix, PFE, life-stream...) Share Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...) Share the Thruput (i.e. usage data... meta content... attention trails...)
  • 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Service Creators Product Creators Content Creators Content Users Co-Creation
  • 27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Image via flickr.com/photos/spursfan_ace/ People now pay more to express themselves, and less to consume
  • 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist People used to pay for Content - Now they pay for Meta Content
  • 29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Users = = Users
  • 30. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Advertising = <=> Users
  • 31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A side effect of Broadband Culture An increasing number of people are now looking to contribute, to connect, to do something truly meaningful Money
  • 32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist In the sharing economy money can be poisonous
  • 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is over
  • 34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Moving from take-down to permission
  • 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist “Trustol” - or death
  • 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 Was 0 Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  • 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Together, Broadband Culture and Mobility will re-define how we think about: • Privacy • Authority • Ownership / Copyright • ‘Selling’ (and Marketing) • Production Requirements • Work • Education
  • 38. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Massive Disruption... + - ? Production Competition Authority Copyright Ownership Control ‘Developing’ Countries ‘Developed’ Countries Empowered Individuals Incumbent Companies Professional Amateurs Authorized Professionals
  • 39. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Crowd + Cloud = The Future
  • 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Advertising, Take 2 Trust Rewards Value Relevance Permission
  • 41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Open - Closed Challenge Closed Open Orderly Chaotic Safe Untested
  • 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It’s all in the Mix and in the timing Orderly Untested Open Closed Chaotic Safe
  • 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening! ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter: gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com ★ lifestream at www.gerdstream.com