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The next 5 years in Mobile
* i.e. everything
‘Business as Usual’ is dead
Scenes at papal inaugurations 2005 versus 2013
Nest Smart Meter App
Image via Ericsson
Image via Ericsson
A majority of your 2018 revenues is likely to come
from products and services that don’t even exist today
The End of ‘Protected Spaces’ is near
Media
Telecom
Banking
Money
Medical
Pharma
Mobile Broadband is a cash-cow shifter
Cloud Culture: Abundant...Everything
Photo by incurable_hippie - http://flic.kr/p/4XtorH
Beware: “Managed Dissatisfaction” is ending
Reed Hastings, Netflix CEO on Arrested Development, House of Cards, and the Future of Netflix: Movies + TV: GQ via Quartz.com
“Hastings call this managed dissatisfaction. The traditional entertainment
ecosystem is built on it, and it’s a totally artificial concept”
The point of managed dissatisfaction is waiting. You’re supposed to wait for your show that comes on Wednesday at 8 p.m., wait
for the new season, see all the ads everywhere for the new season, talk to your friends at the office about how excited you are...”
The Internet of Everything
1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 1 6 - 3 2 - 6 4 - 1 2 8
Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
Soon: 1000s of smart little helper ‘agents’
Video Source: IBM Future Scenarios, Youtube
13
Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
http://soulofstartrek.blogspot.ch/2012/01/enterprise-d-in-hd-captains-log-next.html
‘Business as Usual’ is deadETA: 2017
Used to be Is (almost) Soon for some
Beyond soon
but quite likely
Mobility (R)Evolutions:
Huge social, economic, ethical implications
Expect a $250 Billion shift, globally
2015: ICT | Big Data | SoLoMo Intelligence everywhere
Most products become services
From ownership to access
Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf
Being human
in a ‘totally digital’ society
Massive Human - Machine /AI Interface (R)Evolution
Deep, real-time, contextual data ☯ Fast & ubiquitous connectivity
☯ Location-aware services ☯ Powerful yet cheap mobile devices
☯ Cloud computing culture ☯ Video is the new text ☯ Social-everything
☯ Ultra-smart electronic agents ☯ The Internet of Things / M2M
=
Mobile Devices are
our external brains
Total Convergence
Online
Offline
Human
Machine
Things
EventsInformation
Data
Machine / Robot / AI Jobs versus Human Jobs
0
23
45
68
90
Today 2015 2020 2040
Machines, Software Agents, AI, Robots
Trad. Human
ONLY Human * supported by Machines
Source: Gerd Leonhard Projection
Traditional human labor will shift to machines, dramatic rise of highly ie only-human work
Paradigm-shifts on an unprecedented scale
Most of us already are or will become
Knowledge | Creative | Connective-Workers
...using real-time information and intelligence supplied by an exponentially
growing digital network that will leverage the IoT / IoE and Smart Machines
Humarithms: emotional, fluid, organic ≠ Algorithms
Next: fabricated realities...?Realness will prevail
Brands: make sense not noise:)
Image source: http://pinterest.com/cibbva/
Image source http://itvtu.blogspot.ch/2012_08_01_archive.html
Locked Loose
Business Models: the direction is clear!
Liquid
Flexible. Resilient. Decentralized
Data is the new Oil (again:::)
If Data is the new Oil let’s hope we will do things
differently, this time
The 3 spheres of data: shift towards anticipation
Volunteered Observed Inferred
Personal Data. Granular Permissions. Timely
Knowledge. Precise Location Awareness. Highly
Contextual. Totally Realtime = Predictive Powers.
37
The Future: Contextual Search (contextual everything:)
We are being
searched...sought-
out...found
Most technologies that we used to direct will start
conducting themselves
Searching
for something
Information
seeking usi.e. we are ‘being searched’
Everything
becomes:
Dynamic
Real-time
Social
Mobile
Local
Fluid
Predictive
In order for any of this to work, we will need a
Gigantic Opt-in
/www.brandnewmedia.co.uk/2012/02/29/the-joy-of-not-being-sold-anything/
We need to consider the social implications of IoT
and IoE, Big Data, M2M, AI, Prediction technologies
Let’s not kill the golden goose
Photo by the justified sinner - http://flic.kr/p/djnXUR
Do we really
need more
‘intelligent
marketing’
just to create
the next
Generation
of Human
Consumption
Machines...?
Attention Economy ☯ Intention Economy
Via Wikipedia: “Doc Searls coined the term in the Linux Journal: "The Intention Economy grows around buyers, not sellers. It
leverages the simple fact that buyers are the first source of money, and that they come ready-made. You don't need
advertising to make them" Despite the advancement internet businesses are still seller oriented.
Searls gives an example of intention economy scenario:
"A car rental customer should be able to say to the car rental market, 'I'll be skiing in Park City from March 20-25. I want to
rent a 4-wheel drive SUV. I belong to Avis Wizard, Budget FastBreak and Hertz 1 Club. I don't want to pay up front for gas or
get any insurance. What can any of you companies do for me?' — and have the sellers compete for the buyer's business."
Yet we must retain places like this
48
And we will certainly need seriously reliable
Ways to Opt-Out
“We’re at the level of infants in moral responsibility -
but with the technological capability of adults”
Nick Bostrom (Oxford University)
BBC News - How are humans going to become extinct?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22002530
Faustian Bargains everywhere?
Photo by Zanthia - http://flic.kr/p/bpXtEx
A love-hate relationship between us and the users of our data?
The Future of Mobile (i.e. everything) Futurist Speaker Gerd Leonhard
5 Billion ‘Consumers’ will push back
From mousetraps to magnets
Summary & Key Take-Aways
Thanks for your time and attention!
Visit GerdCloud.com to download this PDF
(and many others incl. my free books)

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