The Future Of Social Media Presentation by Futurist Gerd Leonhard Blogres Slovenia June 2008

www.mediafuturist.com

Gerd Leonhard

gerd@mediafuturist.com

The Future of Social Media (# 1 / Friday):
From Commerce to People to... People Commerce?

Friday, June 20, 2008 1

Digital Media Sharing & the www.mediafuturist.com

Social Web:
We are only at the Beginning!

The rest of this
Iceberg will emerge
much quicker than
you may think


Key Trends

1. All that can goes digital... very fast
2. All that can connect, will
3. Storage is becoming almost free
4. Bandwidth is becoming cheaper all the time
5. Most ‘computing’ goes mobile
6. Devices become “Me” i.e. personal (invisible technology)
7. Media goes ‘social’
8. Content will “feel like free” (i.e. bundled & flat-rated)
9. ‘Old’ style Advertising & Marketing won’t work here!


TV versus the Internet


The Attention Surplus that was eaten www.mediafuturist.com

up by TV is now moving to the web

www.searchviews.com

Time and attention for the Web comes from the Cognitive
Surplus TV has been masking for 50 years (Clay Shirky)


Social Media tops the Charts www.mediafuturist.com



Massive Disruption by
The People Formerly Known as Consumers



Thirty-eight percent of the video streamed on the Web
http://www.forbes.com/technology/forbes/2008/0616/050.html
now comes from YouTube (ComScore)
YouTube will upload 600 years' worth of video this year
10 hours of video uploaded every 10 seconds
An ad on the YouTube home page now costs $175,000 a
day



Social Networks: The new Radio +TV

Friendster Facebook Myspace Cyworld Mixi QQ... are

Friday, June 20, 2008
BROADCASTERS 10


Source:
Don Tapscott
Wikinomics
Blog



(Co)Creating -Remixing - Cutting & Pasting -
Bookmarking - Sharing - Connecting .... Consuming?



First, let’s forget the word ‘Consumer’
• It’s a 2-way conversation now!
• Happy users will now do some of the marketing for you
• Interested users now supply ideas and ‘content’, too: engaged
users now provide images, videos, text, music...
• Loyal users now want to have conversations with you
• The Internet is finally becoming a ‘social’ and cultural web
where Brands that influence Culture do better
• In 2-3 years, there will be no more offline or online
•The kids are now the Authorities!


Everything is switching to PULL



Having Pull means: Connect. Share. Commune.


Not

But

Trust



Now, what IS Content?

Videos, Audio, Music, Text, Images...

and now:
The DATA that is around it i.e

Meta Content

The Users become content, too...



The key to the Future of Advertising

Explicit Permission to use Attention Data &

Clickstream-Data in return for Content (Media &

Entertainment) and Services


Aggregation is a huge opportunity www.mediafuturist.com



So let’s talk about Control



ol
t r
o n
C
“Choice not Control”

We urgently need to get used to www.mediafuturist.com

Having Less Control

TRUST Conversation Merit


Goodbye ‘Control’ www.mediafuturist.com



You can’t force total control anymore
A.P. vice president Jim Kennedy says they will issue guidelines telling
bloggers what is acceptable and what isnʼt, over and above what the law
says is acceptable. They will “attempt to deﬁne clear standards as
to how much of its articles and broadcasts bloggers and Web
sites can excerpt without infringing on The A.P.ʼs copyright.”

The A.P. doesnʼt get to make itʼs own rules around how its content is used,
if those rules are stricter than the law allows. So even thought they say
they are making these new guidelines in the spirit of cooperation, itʼs clear
that, like the RIAA and MPAA, they are trying to claw their way to a set of
property rights that donʼt exist today and that they are not legally entitled
to. So hereʼs our new policy on A.P. stories: they donʼt exist. We donʼt
see them, we donʼt quote them, we donʼt link to them. Theyʼre banned
until they abandon this new strategy

The New York Times Example www.mediafuturist.com

The paid wall went down - traffic went up. And then?
Openness forces you to be more inventive



Your opportunity as a Brand

Provide “Choice” - not Control

Provide Real Meaning & Context - not sheer Volume

Provide Sharing Platforms - not Walls



Many traditional roles will be up for discussion



And a lot will depend....Culture ... UI!


Some to-do’s...

• Prepare for the digital flood is coming - now
is a good time to stake out your role
• Pretend to be 16 again - dive in! Get wet
before learning how to swim.
• Reinvent and disrupt your company before
you are re-invented by others
• If you own content: participate or be
participated

4.5 Billion next year. www.mediafuturist.com



The (smart) phone is the first real
personal medium



A real concern: Privacy



Because the Future of Advertising is solidly dependent
on getting real information from the Users- voluntarily



Imagine:
You could find people that make a 95% match for your

product or service, and that have agreed to pay attention

They would be interested in hearing from you, and open to

discussing your product or service

They would tell others about your product and transport

your message onward, on your behalf

Markets could be Conversations!



We are heading into a
Broadband Culture



Brands that influence Culture get Attention


Media... www.mediafuturist.com

Narrowband Broadband
Linear B Interactive
O
Monologs T
Conversations
H
Advertising
will
Ads = Content
Professional Creators C User & ‘Usator’ Content
O
Pay with cash - Pay with attention
E
Push Marketing X Pull & Attract by Merit
I
S
Own & restrict T Share


Redefining ‘Advertising’

• Offline and in traditional media, people are skipping and
avoiding ads everywhere (TV); print ad reach is declining,
radio stagnates
• Online, people’s attention is very very hard to get (and getting
worse) ~ the Attention Deficit Trend is a real challenge
• The web is essentially forcing us to reinvent advertising
• We must can come up with Ads that provide VALUE,
RELEVANCE, CONTEXT


Push Marketing is dying.

Everything is converting
to Pull.



Marketing 2.0: Listen - Broadcast - Pull

1

3

2


Imagine: an instant Micro Feed to the
‘People formerly known as Consumers’
twitter.com/gleonhard twitter.com/dailywisdoms



There are major issues such as Privacy... but:

The potential evils of an Open Network - of ‘Too
Much Freedom’ - will always pale beside those of
a Closed, Controlled and Authoritarian Network



Creativity Is The Most
Powerful Force [In Business]
*DDB

Thanks for listening!
Gerd Leonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com


The Future Of Social Media Presentation by Futurist Gerd Leonhard Blogres Slovenia June 2008

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The Future Of Social Media Presentation by Futurist Gerd Leonhard Blogres Slovenia June 2008