Gerd Leonhard is a media futurist who presented at Picnic 2008 in Amsterdam on the topic of "Music 2.0 - a new, web-native music business". Some of the key points made in the presentation include: 1) The traditional Western definition of copyright as the sole source of value for music is dead due to new broadband and social media technologies. 2) Attention, not copies, will be the future source of income for musicians. 3) A new web-native music business model is emerging based on flat rates, usage rights instead of just copyright, and many new revenue streams like sharing and syndication. 4) Strong copyright enforcement does not necessarily equal strong

1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
gerd@mediafuturist.com
www.mediafuturist.com
www.music20thebook.com
Music 2.0 -
a new, web-native music business
Presentation at Picnic 2008
September 25, 2008 Amsterdam

2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Source: Flickr hillarylmrore

4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Music is now (again) a
Social Medium
Source: UniversalMcCann waves report

5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Music 2.0: a networked, web-native,
de-centralized Music Business.

6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
This is ... Not.

7. Goodbye ‘Copy = Money”
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The The Western Definition of Copyright as Sole Value of Music is dead

8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
http://flickr.com/photos/hollyleigh97/

9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The future source of income is
Getting Attention

10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
This is not a battle for getting people’s
money but a battle for their Attention

11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
For Creators,
Obscurity is a much
greater threat than
so-called Piracy
Source: CEA

12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A web-native music business model...?
Based on flat-rate access first, then Copy
Based on Usage Rights, not (just) Copyright
Based many revenue streams selling-copies
Driven by Sharing, User-to-User
Driven by Syndication (Widgets!)
Decentralized
Powered by next-generation Advertising
Multi-platform access but mostly mobile!

13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The result of this exploding
Broadband Culture:

14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Does strong copyright and strong protection really
equal strong income?

15. Stop this?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
You can’t really ‘own’ the copy any more but
You can own the Context, the
Meaning, the Relevance, the
Experience, the Embodiment,
the Timing...

17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Asking the ISPs to deep-
package inspect their traffic
and then enforce the rules of
an industry that has utterly
failed to adapt their business
model, is asking for
Censorship

18. Let’s face it: this is wrong
www.mediafuturist.com
Wanting to disconnect people because they
download music & other ‘content’ is wrong.
Criminalizing 90% of the population because of
a lack of a new model to serve them is wrong.
Exploiting market weaknesses to withhold music
licenses is wrong, and so is ruthlessly
capitalizing on one’s market position
Using copyright as an excuse to extort the users
and the organizations that serve them is wrong

19. www.mediafuturist.com
Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic

20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
This is a very serious change
Copy Economy
Access /
Usage /
Share
Economy

21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
If you insert Friction
you insert Defeat

22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Goodbye ‘Consumers’ as we knew them

23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Welcome: The digital Music Flat Rate

24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Old ‘paying logic’
http://www.repmanblog.com/photos/uncategorized/48750_a.jpg

25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
New paying logic

26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Used to be
Music

27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
...is & will be
Music

28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Our Future as Creatives: Attention-based Income explodes
while Copy-based income declines *for now
Copy Based Revenues
Attention Based Revenues
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
Was 0
Is
Soon
Near Future
Mid-term Future

29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
And a flat rate is just the beginning!

30. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
And once 4 Billion phones are connected

31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
So why isn’t Google licensed for music yet?

32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Let’s start sharing in the new revenues!
Start giving PERMISSION

33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Now,
we must ‘sell’ things
that can’t
be
copied

34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The industry has to offer a real, feasible license
to the networks, and enable a Flat Rate that
legalizes the ubiquitous use of music.
If there is no voluntary collective we may
need to enforce its creation.
If the ISPs are forced to unplug people maybe
we should unplug the industry, too?

35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Yes, there are many issues, but:
The evils of ‘too open’ or ‘too much
freedom’ will always pale compared
to the evils of closed, central,
controlled and authoritarian system

36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Let me tell you a story about
China, Google and Music

37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Google Music in China
SHANGHAI, CHINA, August 2008:
Google has launched a free music search service in China that will give users access
to free downloads of songs, while capturing advertising revenue for music providers
in a market already infamous with piracy.
The service poses a challenge to Baidu.com, the #1 search engine in China, along
with other Chinese search engines, faced lawsuits charging that it facilitates copyright
violations through downloads of unlicensed music.
Google said its service would initially let Internet users search tens of thousands of
Chinese songs on its website and download them Top100.cn... Advertising revenue
from the service will be shared among Top100.cn and Google’s music partners aiding
in the search.
Source: Reuters / Information Week

38. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A Creative Economy based on
‘Mutual Interest’ ?
“The Internet industry should by no means stand in the
opposite camp against the music industry. Google
always believes profoundly that mutual interest,
rather than monopoly, is the key to sustainable
growth,” Google China president Kai-fu Lee said in a
statement

39. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A Recipe...?
Establish open, access & usage - based content licenses
Very large, engaged, always-on audiences
Low-cost, ubiquitous, mashed-access, mobile broadband
Telecoms that will become content & service pipes
Large Brands (and their agencies) that must reinvent their
marketing and advertising strategies
Premium Content as well as UGC unprotected, unlimited
Trusted opt-ins and flexible privacy provisions

40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Model
Find the many
Make it ‘feel like free’
Charge the few
Up-sell the rest!

41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Kevin Kelly: The key is to offer valuable intangibles that can
not be reproduced at zero cost, and will thus be paid for:
1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery
2. Personalization - tailored just for you
3. Interpretation - support and guidance
4. Authenticity - be sure it is the real thing?
5. Accessibility - whereever, whenever
6. Embodiment & Experience
7. Patronage - quot;paying simply because it feels goodquot;
8. Findability & Curation

42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
quot;When The winds of change are
blowing, some people are building
shelters, and others are building
windmills.quot; Chinese Proverb

43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com
www.mediafuturist.com
www.music20book.com
Thanks for listening!