1. MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster
RE: State of the Race
DATE: September 10, 2012
Don't get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a
bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has
not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert
itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will
win this race.
In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for
the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention
speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with
yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only
president in modern American history to stand before the American people
asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The
key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher
unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47
million Americans who are on food stamps.
Today, there is no question: Americans are not better off than we were four
years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race. The
truth is that some of President Obama’s allies are claiming victory, but others
are acknowledging the unsustainable position in which they find themselves.
This is evidenced in a recent quote in The New York Times by an Obama
Administration official saying, “It’s certainly not what I would call the position
we wanted to be in at this point in the race…He’s going to have to make the

2. case that we wouldn’t even be at 8 percent if it weren’t for him.”
Consider the following points:
• The Obama Economy: The stakes are very high in this election, and
voters understand the future of our country is on the line. This may be
lost on those living within the hyper-political world in and around the
Beltway, but it is not lost in communities in battleground states. In
short, the Romney-Ryan campaign understands Americans struggling
in the Obama economy will determine the outcome of the race, and
once the preponderance of information about the President’s failed
policies – combined with Mitt Romney’s vision to strengthen the middle
class – are communicated, our nation will move in a different direction.
• All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking
polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his
convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely
to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most
recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at
less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.
• Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted. Note that
Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that
state, while the latest poll numbers from theAlbuquerque Journal in
New Mexico show the race closing there. And this tightening is not an
anomaly. Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New
Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins
of 15 points and 22 points, respectively. In both states, Pollster.com’s
reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama’s lead at only
seven points in each of these states.
• In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National
Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth
withdrawal. In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in
2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign’s television buy
in the state to understand how they view their chances there. The
Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35%
compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much
advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a
small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.
• Historical Data: Political campaign historians will recall President
Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in

3. the fall in 1980. In that race, the voters made their decision based on
the key issues confronting the nation and it determined the outcome.
On the economy, the most important issue of this race, Mitt Romney
leads by 51%-45%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.
• Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply
local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter
groups that will make the difference on Election Day. Anyone
asserting a “one-size-fits-all-campaign” effort is being put forward is
simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by
the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine
states, including Wisconsin.
• New Money Advantage: All of this is not possible without resources,
and the Romney-Ryan campaign and the Republican Party have a real
advantage. In August alone, the Romney Victory effort raised more
than $111 million, marking the third straight fundraising month of more
than $100 million, putting us on a very strong financial footing for the
final two months.
• Energy and Enthusiasm: CNN/ORC’s most recent polling shows that
62% of Republicans are “extremely” or “very” excited about this
election, while only 56% of Democrats report being “extremely” or
“very” excited. This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested
itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a
significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day.
For instance, as of today, Victory volunteers have already knocked on
more doors than during the entire 2008 campaign. (2.72 million in 2012
through September 8 compared to 2.43 million overall in 2008.)
• Romney's Ground Game: During last weekend’s “Super Saturday,” we
crossed the 20 million volunteer voter contact threshold. Also, the
Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week
during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked
doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is
growing by the week. And volunteers have collected person-to-person
identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in
battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling
when one looks at individual states. For instance, in Ohio alone, five
times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been
made than at this time in 2008. This past Saturday, more than 100,000
doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State.
And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door

4. knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. And the list goes on
and on.
Mitt Romney will be the next President. The outcome of this race will
ultimately be determined in favor of Governor Romney because he has the
better leadership skills, the better record, and the better vision for where he
wants to take the country. These advantages are being fueled by the
commitment and determination of volunteers and voters to change direction
and move our country on a path toward economic growth and job creation. In
short, the combination of having the superior candidate, being in a margin-of-
error race with an incumbent President, having a cash advantage, and having
an unprecedented grassroots effort and a winning message on the economy
ensure that Americans will make a change in leadership in Washington on
November 6.