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Saving Lives with Geospatial AI - Pycon Indonesia 2020

There’s a powerful way to fight dengue. Infect a mosquito with Wolbachia, release it in highly populated regions, and wait for it to infect all mosquitoes in the region.

But this process is expensive, and we need to release it in the most densely populated regions in a city.

And no one really knows what population density is at a 100m x 100m level.

Can we use satellite imagery and use this to identify building density?

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Saving Lives with Geospatial AI - Pycon Indonesia 2020

  1. 1. Saving Lives with Geospatial AI PyCon Indonesia, 14 Nov 2020
  2. 2. Which is the most dangerous animal on our planet? 2 SHARKS LIONS CROCODILES DOGS SNAKES MOSQUITOES This is what most people feel
  3. 3. Which is the most dangerous animal on our planet? 3 1. The deadliest animal in the world SHARKS LIONS CROCODILES DOGS SNAKES MOSQUITOES MOSQUITOES 750K SNAKES 100K DOGS 35K CROCODILES 4.5K LIONS 22 SHARKS 6 This is what most people feel This is how many people each animal kills yearly1
  4. 4. Mosquitoes are the world’s deadliest animal 4 Source: WMP Website page on Mosquito-borne diseases 400 million dengue infections each year 84 countries are affected by Zika 40% of the world’s population is at risk of contracting dengue Every 4 minutes, a case of chikungunya is confirmed
  5. 5. Wolbachia bacteria infects mosquitoes, can supress dengue, chikungunya By infecting mosquitoes with Wolbachia, infection risk is reduced 5 • Wolbachia are safe, natural bacteria present in 60% of insects, including some mosquitoes. • Wolbachia is not usually found in the Aedes Aegypti mosquito, which transmits dengue and chikungunya. • Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes that carry Wolbachia do not transmit viruses to people as effectively
  6. 6. Wolbachia infected mosquitoes breed, suppressing risk of transmission 6 Infected mosquitoes breed Over time, the population will have only supressed mosquitoes
  7. 7. Far North Queensland is essentially dengue free, thanks to Wolbachia 7 1. Success story - WMP website 2. Paper - Gates Open Research Wolbachia infected mosquitoes were released in carefully selected locations in 40+ release areas1. Within a year of the release, dengue cases practically vanished, and stayed dengue free for over 8 years2.
  8. 8. But where to release the mosquitoes is a precise and critical decision 8 Resource-Intensive Process Requires Specialists (GIS, Analytics) To identify, research & partner with the right local organizations & agencies, plan and works takes a lot of resources, time and legalese. Technology can solve this problem of scale (state, city-scale), it needs very surgical approach & precise, micro-scale implementation. Requires specialized teams of varied skill set People Issues Release only in populated areas Release accurately, to within 50m-100m radius Correct using Ground- Truthing Precision & Accuracy at a city level needs to at a building level 50m/100m micro-scale. Scope too much – budgets will overrun, scope too little coverage will be less. Releasing mosquitoes in the less populated areas will result in wasted resources without having much impact of the mosquito population Normal/Manual operations need to check/validate the stats – population, vegetation, land usage etc. to check if its true on the ground. Operational Issues
  9. 9. This is where we came in 9 Anand S Co-founder, Gramener Clients Insights as Data Stories We worked with the World Mosquito Program How can we quickly and accurately identify the exact release locations in any city?
  10. 10. Population data is outdated, inaccurate or unavailable 10 GPW (Gridded Population of the World) is one of the best sources But this is at a 1km2 resolution which is too broad for us
  11. 11. We can solve this by distributing population using building footprint data This session will show how we did this for Kampala, Uganda 11 Take world population data at a 1km2 level Use Gridded Population of the World (GPW) data Overlay building footprint after removing vegetation Use OpenStreetMap / Microsoft building footprints Estimate Population 100m2 grids Distribute population data using building footprint area Or build a Deep Learning Model to detect building footprints
  12. 12. Lessons learned 12 Spatial joins are a powerful way to refine information from another dataset Python’s geopandas and rasterio can automate this process end-to-end 1 2 Underlying geo-data can be inferred from satellite imagery if unavailable 3
  13. 13. This reduced site identification time from 3 weeks to 2 hrs at higher accuracy 13 Reduced the time taken from ~3 weeks to 2 hrs 98% Accurate release plan with very high ROI 70%+ Efficient post-release monitoring & validation 50% 1. Effort Savings 2. Better Effectiveness 3. Higher Efficiency
  14. 14. This is being rolled out in 10 countries 14
  15. 15. Saving Lives with Geospatial AI Q&A