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VISUALISING POLITICS




      S ANAND
      DATA SCIENTIST
      GRAMENER.COM




  S.Anand@Gramener.com   @sanand0
INDIA’S 543 CONSTITUENCIES

The country has been
divided into 543
Parliamentary
Constituencies, each of
which returns one MP to the
Lok Sabha.
FOUR COLOUR THEOREM

“Every map can be coloured
with just 4 colours, with no 2
adjacent areas having the
same colour.”

Proven by Appel & Haken in
1979 – using a computer to
solve the problem.

The Indian state map can
also be coloured with just
four colours.
DELIMITED BY POPULATION          Electors   1000000 1500000



The shape of each
constituency aims to house
the same population.

The last delimitation exercise
was in 1976. The next
one, based on the 2001
census is under process.

This has led to wide
discrepancies in the size of
constituencies, with the
largest having over 33 lakh
electors, and the smallest
just 39,000.

Ideally, this map should have
had a uniform shade of blue.
POPULATION DENSITY             Pop Density   50   500



If we treat the amount of
“blueness” as
population, then the right
colouring scheme to use is
population density.

This varies considerably too
– from 1 person per sq km
(Ladakh) to over 45,000
people per sq km (Calcutta
North West and Mumbai
South)
RESERVATION OF SEATS           GEN   SC   ST



In a number of seats in the
Lok Sabha, the candidates
can only be from either one
of the scheduled castes or
scheduled tribes. The
number of these reserved
seats is meant to be
approximately in proportion
to the number of people from
scheduled castes or
scheduled tribes in each
state.

There are currently 79 seats
reserved for the scheduled
castes and 41 reserved for
the scheduled tribes in the
Lok Sabha.
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES           Contestants   2   20



The number of candidates
contesting each election
steadily increased. In the
general election of 1952 the
average number of
candidates in each
constituency was 3.8; by
1991 it had risen to
16.3, and in 1996 stood at
25.6.

In August 1996, the size of
the deposit and the number
of people required to
nominate were increased.

The 1998 Lok Sabha
elections, the number of
candidates came down to an
average of 8.74 per
constituency. In 1999 Lok
Sabha elections, it was
8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
POLLING PERCENTAGE             Poll %   40%   90%



The number of candidates
contesting each election
steadily increased. In the
general election of 1952 the
average number of
candidates in each
constituency was 3.8; by
1991 it had risen to
16.3, and in 1996 stood at
25.6.

In August 1996, the size of
the deposit and the number
of people required to
nominate were increased.

The 1998 Lok Sabha
elections, the number of
candidates came down to an
average of 8.74 per
constituency. In 1999 Lok
Sabha elections, it was
8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
… REDUCES WITH ELECTORS

The more electors there are
                               Poll%
in a constituency, the lower    100%
the polling percentage.
                                 90%


                                 80%


                                 70%


                                 60%


                                 50%


                                 40%


                                 30%


                                 20%


                                 10%


                                  0%
                                       0   500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000
                                                                                                               Electors
… AND WITH POP. DENSITY

The denser the population in
                                Poll%
a constituency, the lower the    100%
polling percentage.
                                  90%


                                  80%


                                  70%


                                  60%


                                  50%


                                  40%


                                  30%


                                  20%


                                  10%


                                   0%
                                        1   10   100   1,000   10,000       100,000
                                                                  Population density
CONTESTANTS INCREASE

As the number of electors in
                                # contestants
a constituency increase, the     40
number of contestants
increase as well.                35


(Remember: the number of         30
seats per constituency is the
same – just one. So this is      25
not a proportional effect.)
                                 20



                                 15



                                 10



                                  5



                                  0
                                      0    500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000
                                                                                                               Electors
WINNING PARTIES                Party   BJP   BSP   CPM   INC   RJD   SP



In the 2004 election to Lok
Sabha there were 1,351
candidates from 6 National
parties, 801 candidates from
36 State parties, 898
candidates from officially
recognised parties and 2385
Independent candidates.

The Congress (INC) won
145 seats in the 2004
elections. BJP won
138, coming a close second.

The constituencies where
each party won is shown
here.
WINNING PARTIES                Party   BJP   BSP   CPM   INC   RJD   SP



In the 2004 election to Lok
Sabha there were 1,351
candidates from 6 National
parties, 801 candidates from
36 State parties, 898
candidates from officially
recognised parties and 2385
Independent candidates.

The Congress (INC) won
145 seats in the 2004
elections. BJP won
138, coming a close second.

The constituencies where
each party won is shown
here.
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES           Contestants   2   20



The number of candidates
contesting each election
steadily increased. In the
general election of 1952 the
average number of
candidates in each
constituency was 3.8; by
1991 it had risen to
16.3, and in 1996 stood at
25.6.

In August 1996, the size of
the deposit and the number
of people required to
nominate were increased.

The 1998 Lok Sabha
elections, the number of
candidates came down to an
average of 8.74 per
constituency. In 1999 Lok
Sabha elections, it was
8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES           Contestants   2   20



The number of candidates
contesting each election
steadily increased. In the
general election of 1952 the
average number of
candidates in each
constituency was 3.8; by
1991 it had risen to
16.3, and in 1996 stood at
25.6.

In August 1996, the size of
the deposit and the number
of people required to
nominate were increased.

The 1998 Lok Sabha
elections, the number of
candidates came down to an
average of 8.74 per
constituency. In 1999 Lok
Sabha elections, it was
8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
POLLING PERCENTAGE             Poll %   40%   90%



The number of candidates
contesting each election
steadily increased. In the
general election of 1952 the
average number of
candidates in each
constituency was 3.8; by
1991 it had risen to
16.3, and in 1996 stood at
25.6.

In August 1996, the size of
the deposit and the number
of people required to
nominate were increased.

The 1998 Lok Sabha
elections, the number of
candidates came down to an
average of 8.74 per
constituency. In 1999 Lok
Sabha elections, it was
8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
POLLING PERCENTAGE             Poll %   40%   90%



The number of candidates
contesting each election
steadily increased. In the
general election of 1952 the
average number of
candidates in each
constituency was 3.8; by
1991 it had risen to
16.3, and in 1996 stood at
25.6.

In August 1996, the size of
the deposit and the number
of people required to
nominate were increased.

The 1998 Lok Sabha
elections, the number of
candidates came down to an
average of 8.74 per
constituency. In 1999 Lok
Sabha elections, it was
8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
LOSING THE DEPOSIT              % Lost Deposit   50%   90%



Every candidate has to make
a deposit of Rs. 10,000/- for
Lok Sabha elections. The
deposit is returned if the
candidate receives more
than one-sixth of the total
number of valid votes polled
in the constituency.
WINNER MARGIN                 % Margin   0   5%



The percentage margin of
victory is shown against
each constituency.

The person with the single
largest number of votes is
returned to the parliament.
WINNER MARGIN

The percentage margin of
victory is shown against
each constituency.
                              INC 145   12%
The person with the single
largest number of votes is
                              BJP 138   11%
returned to the parliament.   CPM 43    19%
                              SP   36   10%
                              RJD  24   11%
                              BSP  19    5%
                              DMK 16    23%
                              SHS  12    8%
                              BJD  11   10%
                              CPI  10   15%
INCREASES WITH CONTESTANTS

As the number of
                              Winner margin
contestants increase, the        70%
percentage margin by which
the winner wins increases –
                                 60%
suggesting that candidates
do not split up the winners
votes much…                      50%



                                 40%



                                 30%



                                 20%



                                 10%



                                  0%
                                       0      5   10   15   20   25   30   35        40
                                                                           # contestants
RUNNER UP MARGIN

… however, the runner-up’s
                             Runner-up margin
margin significantly drops      50%
with the number of
candidates.                     45%


                                40%


                                35%


                                30%


                                25%


                                20%


                                15%


                                10%


                                 5%


                                 0%
                                      0         5   10   15   20   25   30   35        40
                                                                             # contestants
WOMEN CANDIDATES        # Women   0   1   5



How many women
candidates stand for
elections? And where?
WOMEN CANDIDATES              Women %   0   0.5   1



There was only one
constituency in the 2004
general elections where
there were more women
candidates than men: at
Udaipur.

Incidentally, they were the
winner, runner up and
second runner up.

The men lost their deposit.
NAME LENGTH                Name length   10   30



Where do candidates have
long names?
PARLIAMENT DECISIONS (CABINET + CCEA* + CCI**)
                                                UPA's best cabinet performance was last
                                                Friday, with a record 23 decisions taken in a
                                                single day, including some long pending key
                                                reform measures.

                                                             The only other such times were
                                                             Feb 23, 2008 (28 decisions) &
                                                             Dec 26, 2008 (23 decisions).

                                                              Mon 63                5%
                                                              Tue  56               4%
                                                              Wed 105               8%
                                                              Thu 854              65%
                                                              Fri 223              17%
                                                              Sat   6               0%

                                                             Nearly two-thirds of decisions
                                                             are taken on Thursday
                                                             sessions, which is also visible
                                                             on the calendar alongside.




* CCEA: Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs
** CCI: Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure
PRE-2009                                                   2009 AND AFTER


Decisions related to
intervention, assistance and relief       Decisions to increase the number of
were almost entirely concentrated in     lanes on highways grew significantly
pre-2009                               post-2009, especially as part of the CCI
                                        (Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure)
                                                                      decisions




                                             A significant rise in the number of
The number of international                  decisions related to the States is
agreements has declined                      seen post 2009 – in contrast with
dramatically between pre-2009 and              the focus on “Central” pre-2009
post-2009
There’s enough data out there.

I’ll be sharing the Excel file that built this
presentation.

Let’s get people to see politics.

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Visualising India's Parliamentary Constituencies

  • 1. VISUALISING POLITICS S ANAND DATA SCIENTIST GRAMENER.COM S.Anand@Gramener.com @sanand0
  • 2.
  • 3. INDIA’S 543 CONSTITUENCIES The country has been divided into 543 Parliamentary Constituencies, each of which returns one MP to the Lok Sabha.
  • 4. FOUR COLOUR THEOREM “Every map can be coloured with just 4 colours, with no 2 adjacent areas having the same colour.” Proven by Appel & Haken in 1979 – using a computer to solve the problem. The Indian state map can also be coloured with just four colours.
  • 5. DELIMITED BY POPULATION Electors 1000000 1500000 The shape of each constituency aims to house the same population. The last delimitation exercise was in 1976. The next one, based on the 2001 census is under process. This has led to wide discrepancies in the size of constituencies, with the largest having over 33 lakh electors, and the smallest just 39,000. Ideally, this map should have had a uniform shade of blue.
  • 6. POPULATION DENSITY Pop Density 50 500 If we treat the amount of “blueness” as population, then the right colouring scheme to use is population density. This varies considerably too – from 1 person per sq km (Ladakh) to over 45,000 people per sq km (Calcutta North West and Mumbai South)
  • 7. RESERVATION OF SEATS GEN SC ST In a number of seats in the Lok Sabha, the candidates can only be from either one of the scheduled castes or scheduled tribes. The number of these reserved seats is meant to be approximately in proportion to the number of people from scheduled castes or scheduled tribes in each state. There are currently 79 seats reserved for the scheduled castes and 41 reserved for the scheduled tribes in the Lok Sabha.
  • 8. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20 The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6. In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased. The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  • 9. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90% The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6. In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased. The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  • 10. … REDUCES WITH ELECTORS The more electors there are Poll% in a constituency, the lower 100% the polling percentage. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 Electors
  • 11. … AND WITH POP. DENSITY The denser the population in Poll% a constituency, the lower the 100% polling percentage. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Population density
  • 12. CONTESTANTS INCREASE As the number of electors in # contestants a constituency increase, the 40 number of contestants increase as well. 35 (Remember: the number of 30 seats per constituency is the same – just one. So this is 25 not a proportional effect.) 20 15 10 5 0 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 Electors
  • 13. WINNING PARTIES Party BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SP In the 2004 election to Lok Sabha there were 1,351 candidates from 6 National parties, 801 candidates from 36 State parties, 898 candidates from officially recognised parties and 2385 Independent candidates. The Congress (INC) won 145 seats in the 2004 elections. BJP won 138, coming a close second. The constituencies where each party won is shown here.
  • 14. WINNING PARTIES Party BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SP In the 2004 election to Lok Sabha there were 1,351 candidates from 6 National parties, 801 candidates from 36 State parties, 898 candidates from officially recognised parties and 2385 Independent candidates. The Congress (INC) won 145 seats in the 2004 elections. BJP won 138, coming a close second. The constituencies where each party won is shown here.
  • 15. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20 The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6. In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased. The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  • 16. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20 The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6. In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased. The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  • 17. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90% The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6. In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased. The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  • 18. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90% The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6. In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased. The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
  • 19. LOSING THE DEPOSIT % Lost Deposit 50% 90% Every candidate has to make a deposit of Rs. 10,000/- for Lok Sabha elections. The deposit is returned if the candidate receives more than one-sixth of the total number of valid votes polled in the constituency.
  • 20. WINNER MARGIN % Margin 0 5% The percentage margin of victory is shown against each constituency. The person with the single largest number of votes is returned to the parliament.
  • 21. WINNER MARGIN The percentage margin of victory is shown against each constituency. INC 145 12% The person with the single largest number of votes is BJP 138 11% returned to the parliament. CPM 43 19% SP 36 10% RJD 24 11% BSP 19 5% DMK 16 23% SHS 12 8% BJD 11 10% CPI 10 15%
  • 22. INCREASES WITH CONTESTANTS As the number of Winner margin contestants increase, the 70% percentage margin by which the winner wins increases – 60% suggesting that candidates do not split up the winners votes much… 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 # contestants
  • 23. RUNNER UP MARGIN … however, the runner-up’s Runner-up margin margin significantly drops 50% with the number of candidates. 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 # contestants
  • 24. WOMEN CANDIDATES # Women 0 1 5 How many women candidates stand for elections? And where?
  • 25. WOMEN CANDIDATES Women % 0 0.5 1 There was only one constituency in the 2004 general elections where there were more women candidates than men: at Udaipur. Incidentally, they were the winner, runner up and second runner up. The men lost their deposit.
  • 26. NAME LENGTH Name length 10 30 Where do candidates have long names?
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. PARLIAMENT DECISIONS (CABINET + CCEA* + CCI**) UPA's best cabinet performance was last Friday, with a record 23 decisions taken in a single day, including some long pending key reform measures. The only other such times were Feb 23, 2008 (28 decisions) & Dec 26, 2008 (23 decisions). Mon 63 5% Tue 56 4% Wed 105 8% Thu 854 65% Fri 223 17% Sat 6 0% Nearly two-thirds of decisions are taken on Thursday sessions, which is also visible on the calendar alongside. * CCEA: Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs ** CCI: Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure
  • 31. PRE-2009 2009 AND AFTER Decisions related to intervention, assistance and relief Decisions to increase the number of were almost entirely concentrated in lanes on highways grew significantly pre-2009 post-2009, especially as part of the CCI (Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure) decisions A significant rise in the number of The number of international decisions related to the States is agreements has declined seen post 2009 – in contrast with dramatically between pre-2009 and the focus on “Central” pre-2009 post-2009
  • 32. There’s enough data out there. I’ll be sharing the Excel file that built this presentation. Let’s get people to see politics.