presentation to the Ohio Municipal League on Ohio's demographic trends and their implications for cities.

1. Alison D. Goebel, PhD
Associate Director
Greater Ohio Policy Center
October 29, 2015

2. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER
An outcome-oriented
statewide non-profit that
champions revitalization and
sustainable redevelopment in
Ohio:
• Revitalize Ohio’s urban
cores and metropolitan
regions
• Achieve sustainable land
reuse and economic
growth

3. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER:
SUBJECT AREA EXPERTISE
Urban regeneration
Sustainably revitalize
urban cores and
neighborhoods
Transportation &
infrastructure
modernization
Develop improved &
modern infrastructure
Regional growth
Promote regional economic
development & collaborative
governance structures

4. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER:
HOW WE DO OUR WORK
• Develop and publish research
• Use research to advocate for practical
policy solutions at the state level
• Assist communities through strategic
assistance and dissemination of best
practices
• Build collaborative partnerships to
extend our reach and ability to impact
change

6. The Challenges
Facing Ohio’s
Communities

7. OHIO’S POPULATION GROWTH HAS SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1970S
Exhibit 1-1. Total Population, 1910-2014
14,000,000
12,000,000 11,594,163
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
Year
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2014 State Total Population Estimates

8. OHIO’S PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH FOR
NEXT 25 YEARS IS MINIMAL
2015-2040: Population growth
Ohio: expected to grow 0.04% per year (net gain of
~85,000)
• Ohio 2014 population: 11,594,163
• Projected 2040 pop: 11,678,970
United States: expected to grow 0.69% per year (net gain
nearly 60 million)
• US 2014 population: 318,857,056

9. OHIO IS AGING; OLDER COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTING
YOUNGER COHORTS TO REPLACE AGING RESIDENTS
2015: population age 55+ Projected overall population growth
2015-2040

10. OHIOANS IN HOUSEHOLDS EARNING LESS THAN 120% AREA
MEDIAN INCOME (2014): NOT JUST A LARGE CITY CHALLENGE

11. OHIO’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (2014): RURAL OHIO FACING
GREATER CHALLENGES
Statewide
unemployment
rate in 2014:
5.7%

12. LAND CONSUMPTION IN OHIO
HAS OUTPACED POPULATION GROWTH
• Ohio is 8th in land conversion but only 45th in
population growth, nationally
• Ohio’s rate of development of acres outpaced
its population growth by almost 6 times in last
thirty years

13. COUNTY POPULATION CHANGE OUTSIDE
CENTRAL CITY, 1950-2010
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Summit
Stark
Hamilton
Cuyahoga
Franklin
Montgomery
Lucas
Youngstown

14. POPULATION INCREASE IN EX-URBAN COUNTIES, BUT NOT
UNIFORMLY ACROSS STATE
Darker blue=most
population growth
Darkest
red=greatest loss of
population

15. AS POPULATIONS SHIFT AROUND THE METRO, HOUSING IS LEFT
VACANT, RAISING LIKELIHOOD OF BLIGHT, MAKING IT THAT MUCH
HARDER TO MAINTAIN AN ATTRACTIVE, COMPETITIVE COMMUNITY
Note: Ottawa Co.
in NW Ohio has
high rates of
vacancy due to the
number vacation
homes that are
used only part of
the year

16. CHALLENGES WITH POPULATION STAGNATION
AND AGING COMMUNITIES
1. Physical decline—blighted houses, shuttered businesses, outdated
commercial and industrial facilities
2. Rising Legacy Costs and Declining Tax Base
• Ohio will need over $25 billion to maintain and upgrade aging water
infrastructure over the next 20 years.
• Tax base shrinking with population loss.
3. Persistent Poverty and Inequity
• Neighborhoods in decline are disproportionately affecting low income
populations
• Remaining economic/racial disparities that bring down the rest of the
region

17. GOPC’S STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Establish innovative financing programs that support
infrastructure modernization and fund brownfield
redevelopment
2. Align ODOT administrative regions with state
business growth efforts to improve economic
development strategies and transportation investment
decisions
3. Develop programming that connects entrepreneurs
with vacant commercial buildings
4. Create a loan program that links small business
lending with neighborhood improvement efforts

18. The Opportunities
Facing Ohio’s
Communities

19. OHIO IS BECOMING MORE RACIALLY/ETHNICALLY
DIVERSE: THIS IS A GOOD TREND

20. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34)
The Millennials (those
aged 25-34) are the
largest age cohort,
nationally.
• In Ohio they made
up 13% of 2013
state population, still
smaller than 45-54
age cohort
Under 5
years
6%
5 to 9
years
6%
10 to 14
years
7%
15 to 19 years
7%
20 to 24 years
7%
25 to 34 years
13%
35 to 44 years
12%
45 to 54 years
14%
55 to 59 years
7%
60 to 64
years
6%
65 to 74 years
8%
75 to 84 years
5%
85 years and over
2%
Ohio 2013 pop distribution

21. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34)
91% of Ohio’s millennials with college degrees live in
the state’s 8 largest metros

23. Ohio is a State of
Regions.
Local prosperity rides
on regional fortunes.

24. OHIO’S METROS ARE THE ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF OUR STATE AND
THE KEY ENGINES TO OUR ECONOMY ARE OUR URBAN CORES
1. Toledo
2. Sandusky
3. Cleveland
Elyria
Lorain
4. Akron
5. Warren
Youngstown
6. Lima
7. Mansfield
8. Canton
9. Steubenville
10. Dayton
Piqua
11. Springfield
12. Columbus
Lancaster
Newark
13. East Liverpool
14. Cincinnati
Hamilton
Middletown
15. Ironton
16. Marietta

25. THE VAST MAJORITY OF OHIOANS LIVE IN A METRO
Almost every
single Ohioan
lives within an
hour’s drive of
an urbanized
area.
Clockwise: Piqua; Mansfield; Cincinna
81% of all
Ohioans live in 1
of 16 metro
regions
Ohio’s 16 metro
regions hold 84%
of the state’s jobs
Ohio’s 16 metro
regions produce
87% of the state’s
GDP
Half of the state’s
population lives
within 10 miles of
an urban core.

26. OHIO’S MAJOR URBAN COUNTIES CONTAIN THE JOBS THAT EMPLOY
THE METRO REGION
Green=“inflow of
workers” (i.e. county
receives workers
commuting from
another county)
Blue=“outflow of
workers” (i.e.
residents leave
county for their job)

27. WHY REGIONS MATTER FOR ECONOMIC
REGROWTH
• Municipalities, suburbs, and
townships and their regions are
economically interdependent
• Regional development and regional
attraction will be the only way to
economically thrive, in the long term

28. Cleveland
Akron
Canton
Youngstown
Lorain
Northeast OHIO:
five legacy cities
embedded in a
single region of
over 5,000 mi2
REGIONAL INITIATIVES: LONG TERM ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
Urban centers, suburbs, and rural townships are embedded in larger
economic regions, which is how other areas of the country are succeeding

29. REGIONAL INITIATIVES: COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY
Central Ohio’s insight2050

30. INTERGOVERNMENTAL COLLABORATION &
COOPERATION IS CRITICAL
Local
Government
Metropolitan
Planning
Organizations
Education
Service
Centers
County
Engineers
County
Executive or
County
Commissioners
Major cities

31. COLLABORATION, COOPERATION, AND SELECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION LEADS TO:
Economies of
scale
Improved local
government
accountability
Equalization of
service quantity
and quality
Coordinated
economic
competitiveness
Ability to retain
local community
character and
flavor

32. REGIONAL UPSHOT
Looking beyond jurisdictional boundaries allows
communities to maximize resources and identify new
markets
Multi-faceted public/private partnerships are capable of
driving sustained regeneration, on a regional basis
Effective ties between cities and their regions to foster
stronger economic growth for both

33. Maintaining and
creating
attractive
communities in
which people

34. OPPORTUNITIES TO LEVERAGE AND ATTRACT
RESIDENTS IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS
Nationally, the market is seeking walking able neighborhoods that
are denser and are mixed-use.
Millennials and Baby Boomers are returning to cities and older
suburbs.
Baby boomer, as they age, may have fewer options and lower
desire to live in ex-urban areas as driving becomes untenable for
some
Immigrants are significant contributors to population growth and
economic regeneration and are less interested in suburban-style
communities

35. STRATEGIES THAT ARE MAKING AN IMPACT
1. Target resources in viable neighborhoods,
especially neighborhoods facing economic
challenges but that can “tip back” to health
2. Focus on rebuilding the downtown or core of
community
3. Leverage economic assets to build competitive
advantages
4. Repurpose vacant land and buildings for new
uses

36. ASSETS TO LEVERAGE IN OLDER COMMUNITIES
• Great “bones” – historic buildings, cultural
assets, eds and meds, existing
infrastructure
• Lifestyle and affordability
• Inherent walkability – “streetcar suburbs”
and “main street” communities
• Sense of community
• Excess land ripe for redevelopment

37. THE MARKET WANTS WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODS
AND THEY ARE COST EFFECTIVE!
Walkable
neighborhoods
with
transportation
options save
money and
resources Downtown Mansfield, Mansfield Ohio
from http://www.hivelocitymedia.com/cities/Mansfield/

38. WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Sustainable Development: is development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs.
In Ohio this means building urban, suburban and rural communities
with housing and transportation choices near jobs, shops and
schools.
More compact development puts existing capacity to work, lowers
infrastructure costs per capita, and helps ensure infrastructure is
maintained before repairs get expensive.

39. SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IS COST EFFECTIVE
In general, sustainable growth development
costs one-third less for upfront infrastructure,
such as: new construction of roads, sewers,
and water lines.
Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fisca
Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May
2013

40. SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IS COST EFFECTIVE
Sustainable growth development saves
taxpayers an average of 10 percent on
ongoing delivery of services, such as
police, ambulance, and fire service costs,
by reducing distances service vehicles must
drive.
Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fiscal
Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May
2013

41. CRITICAL NEXT STRATEGIES: STRATEGIC
INCREMENTALISM FOR OHIO’S COMMUNITIES
• Requires a coherent vision of the future. Clear
long-term goals grounded in small, but achievable
steps
• Be creative in identifying assets in your community
and leverage them
• Set clear long-term goals and identify small,
achievable steps to get you there
• Look beyond jurisdictional boundaries maximize
resources and identify new markets

42. STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
• Increase state funding and federal funds flexed
for transit
• Improve communities’ ability to revitalize vacant
and abandoned buildings
• Implement a statewide Safe Streets policy to
ensure safety of all users and encourage
economic development

43. GOPC RESEARCH TO BE RELEASED IN 2015
• Study of Opportunity neighborhoods
in Ohio
• Analysis of what gives some small
and medium-sized cities their
competitive edge

44. Alison D. Goebel, PhD
Associate Director
Greater Ohio Policy
Center
agoebel@greaterohio.or
g
@alisongoebelOH
www.greaterohio.org
614-224-0187