White paper presentation on the current state, trends and future scenarios for aviation maintenance technologies, taking into account disruptive technological trends in Autonomics, Diagnostics, Prognostics, virtualization, SaaS, Web 2.0 collaboration.
2. Aviation MRO: Non-Defense Industry Size and Growth ~ 4.0% CAGR to $62B
2
Five & Ten Year Compounded Annual Growth Rate Projections $62B
70
Airframes & Mods = 4.7% slowing to 3.6% CAGR
Engines = 4.7% moderating to 4.5% CAGR
$58B
Components = 4.1% moderating to 4.0% CAGR
Line = 4.2% moderating to 4.0% CAGR
60
$51B 10.9
11.3
50
$41B 9.0
$42B 11.8
$41B $40B
$38B $37B
12.7
$36B
40
9.2 9.7
8.6
9 8.5
8.5 8.4
8.1
7.4
30 7 8.6
7.4
26.9
6.9 6.9
7.1
22.2
21.6
11.5
11
20
13.0
10.4 11.1 14.3
11.1
10
14.1
14 13.0
12.1
12 11.0 11.0 10.9
9.8 9.4
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2012 2016 2017
Airframes & Mods Engines Components Line
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CONFIDENTIAL
3. Aviation MRO: Industry Structure / “Eco-System”
3
Regulatory Services
FAA, JAA/EASA, CAA, NTSB
Engineering Services
Maintenance Planning / Packaging / Scheduling, Regulatory Compliance, Tech Docs, Reliability Engineering
Other Segments:
Commercial Aircraft BizJet / Corporate
Defense Operators & Depots
Fleet Operators Air Taxi / VLJ
Total Technical Services
Airframe, Engine, Component & Total Touch Services
GA: General Aviation
Country
USAF/USN UK MoD
Maintenance Services
LCC Net Out
Legacy Out
Legacy In
X
Military
Fleet 1
Fleet 2
Fleet 1
Fleet 2
... ... ... ...
Forces
3PMP & 3PL
Engine OEM
Component OEM
Airframe OEM
Logistics Services
Sourcing, Provisioning, Procurement, Warehousing, Distribution, Transportation, 3PL
Technology Services
Infrastructure Products / Services, SaaP (On-Premise, EAI, Application Management), System Integration, SaaS (On-Demand)
Financing & Leasing
Power x Hour Engine Bundling, ACMI Wet Lease, Performance Driven Outcomes
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4. Aviation MRO: Core Business Processes
4
Engineering,
Maintenance Programs
& Regulatory
Flight Operations
Maintenance
Airframe & Engine
Maintenance
Shop, Tool & GSE
Maintenance
Supply Chain
Management
Customer
Relationship
Management
Reservations, Airport
Pricing, Marketing Airport Flight Finance & Human Capital
Operations, Finance &
& Sales Operations Operations Accounting Management
Human Capital
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5. Aviation MRO: Core Business Processes vs. Industry Structure:
Collaboration Capabilities and Technologies are no longer an option!
5
EASA, FAA, ICAO, ATA, IATA, ASD, AIA
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6. Industry Structure & Synchronization vs. Nature of Demand & Supply of Services
6
As the Nature of Demand & Supply of Services
Nature of Demand & Supply (Services)
increases so does:
Increasing Breadth or Depth of Services Demanded
Increasing Breadth or Depth of Services Demanded
Decreasing Sources of Supply Provided
Decreasing Sources of Supply Provided
Increasing Likelihood of Proprietary Standards
s
Increasing Likelihood of Vertical Monopolies
Increasing Risks to Margins
n
gi
ar
M
ng
i
as
e
cr
As the Structure and Integration of Services
In increases so does:
Increasing Complexity to Execute
Increasing Barriers to Competitor Entry
Increasing Barriers to Customer Exit
Increasing Margins of Return
Increasing Likelihood of Cartels / Dominant Exchanges
Increasing Likelihood of Horizontal Monopolies
Structure of Industry & Synchronization
Increasing Complexity to Execute
Increasing Barriers to Competitor Entry and Customer Exit
Increasing Margins of Return
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7. Aviation MRO Industry Structure vs. Demand & Supply of Services
7
Engine Power X Hour Airframe Performance Mgt Performance
Services
Bundled Acq + Eng + Mtc + Log PBL, PDO, Goldcare, TTS+
ns
gi
ar
M
Nature of Demand & Supply (Services)
g
in
as
re Engineering Services Knowledge Management Fleet Management Knowledge
Increasing Breadth or Depth of Services Demanded
nc
I Services
PMA, Mods, XML Task Cards MRO SaaS + CASS Reliability / BI Reg, Mx Program, Pln, MOC/MCC
Decreasing Sources of Supply Provided
Increasing Risks to Margins
3rd Party Logistics
Leasing Utility Computing Business Process Outsourcing Business
Services
Engine, Airframe, ACMI Hosting, Grid H/W, WAN/Comms FI, HR/Payroll, Call Ctr, CRM VMI, Warehousing, Dist / Trans
Engine Maintenance
Airframe Maintenance Component Maintenance Line Maintenance Maintenance
Services
Hangar / Heavy Check / RON Avionics, LRUs, Subs, Fab
Infrastructure Management Application Management System Engineering Technology
Services
H/W, LAN/WAN, Communications On-Premise Management Implementation, Integration
Technology Consulting Strategy Consulting Advisory
Process, Human Capital Consulting
σ Services
Application & Infrastructure Financial, Marketing, M&A
Org Design, Skills, Training, LEAN/6σ, Metrics
Structure of Industry & Integration
Increasing Complexity to Execute
Increasing Barriers to Competitor Entry and Customer Exit
Increasing Margins of Return
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8. Software as a Service / On Demand has two key differentiators:
8
Source: Marc Benioff, CEO, salesforce.com, Tour de Force Atlanta, Apr. 2008, “The Future of Cloud Computing”
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9. Just as Applications evolved via Abstraction, Virtualization and Outsourcing…
9
Source: Marc Benioff, CEO, salesforce.com, Tour de Force Atlanta, Apr. 2008, “The Future of Cloud Computing”
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10. … so too are Platforms moving to the SaaS / On Demand business model …
10
Source: Marc Benioff, CEO, salesforce.com, Tour de Force Atlanta, Apr. 2008, “The Future of Cloud Computing”
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11. … a business model that originated in the airline / aerospace industry.
11
CRS / GDS Catering SCM MRO MRO IT
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12. The three waves of adoption of a Disruptive Value Innovation in any industry are:
12
The focus of SaaS shifts over time from cost-effective delivery of stand-alone applications (Wave I),
to integrated business solutions enabled by web services and ESBs (Wave II), then to human
workflow and collaboration based business transformation (Wave III).
Evolution of Software-as-a-Service
SaaS 2.0
SaaS 1.0 SaaS 2.0
High
Wave III: 2008-2014
Wave I: 2001-2006 Wave II: 2005-2010
Workflow-enabled
Cost-effective Integrated
Business Transformation
Software Delivery Business Solutions
Ubiquitous Adoption
• Optimized Business Ecosystems
• IT-targeted Ecosystems
Mainstream Adoption
Adoption
• Inter-enterprise Collaboration
• Integrated w/ Business Portfolio
• IT Utility / SaaS Infrastructure
• SaaS Integration Platforms
• Customized, Personalized Workflow
• Business Marketplaces
Early Adoption • Focus on Business Transformation
and SaaS ecosystems
• Stand-alone Apps
• Customization Capability
• Multi-tenancy
• Focus on Integration
• Limited Configurability
• Focus on TCO / rapid deploy
SaaS
Tipping-
Point
Low
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Saugatuck Technology, 2007, “SaaS Beyond the Tipping Point”
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13. SaaS and Business Process Outsourcing are on a collision course …
13
By 2010, a new SaaS business services provisioning model emerges, combining pure-play SaaS solutions
with business services from both next-generation and traditional infrastructure, application hosting,
Managed Service Providers and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO).
While many SaaS vendors desire to remain pure-play application solution providers, customers and
industry specific trends in addition to Wall-street economic valuation metrics will decide how far into
business services SaaS must go to effectively compete with traditional software vendors.
New Collaboration Services Models
Business Infrastructure,
Process Hosting &
Outsourcing Application
(BPO) Management
SaaS CSP
SaaS BPO
SaaS SaaS
ASP
1.0 2.0
SaaS Infrastructure / SIPs
Pure Play Infrastructure / Communications
Source: Saugatuck Technology, 2007, “SaaS Beyond the Tipping Point”
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14. … to create new business models around Collaboration Services Providers (CSP).
14
From tactical to strategic From 1:1 to 1:N
From commodity to industry specialized From client site to web site
From cost-reducing to profit-enhancing From SMB to global 1000
Strategic Increasing ROIC for an
Value Industry Collaborative
System
Shared Service
Collaboration
Systems Collaboration
Integration Services
Management Provider
Operational Optimal Single Company
Business Processes
Value Risk / Return Proposition
Business Business
Process Management Services Provider
Business Applications
Application Software
Management as a Service
Increasing Propensity to
Tactical Technology Infrastructure Outsource
Infrastructure Hosting
Value Management Services Commodity Activities
On-Demand Delivery
On-Premise Delivery
Configurable Solutions Shared
Fixed Solutions
Utility Pricing
Fixed Cost Plus Pricing
Transaction Oriented Event / Workflow Oriented
1:1 Company Standards 1:N Industry-standards
1:N Industry-specific
1:1 Client-specific
Ubiquitous Delivery
Dedicated Delivery
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15. Point of View: The Strategic Positioning of select Aerospace & Defense MROs
15
System Economics Strategy
Increasing Bonding Quotient
Microsoft
Wal-Mart Southwest
Total Solution Strategy Best Product Strategy
Source: “The Delta Project: Discovering New Sources of Profitability in a Networked Economy”; Arnoldo Hax, Ph.D., MIT Sloan; Dean L. Wilde II, Dean & Company
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16. Aviation MRO Trends: Supply Chain Management Business Process Outsourcing
(BPO) and Software as a Service (SaaS) are merging into Collaboration Services.
16
Customers:
Air Canada, American Airlines, Air India, PIA, Singapore, US Airways, KLM, Cathay Pacific, ANA, JAL, FedEx, Air New
Zealand, Austrian, Lufthansa, China Airlines, Northwest, Egypt Air, Gulf Air, Icelandair, Kuwait Airways, Mexicana Airlines,
Qatar Airways, Saudi Arabian Airlines, Royal Jordanian, Thai Airways, Virgin Atlantic & United.
Technology Partners:
EDS (Hosting), AMOS, Lawson, Mxi, Oracle, SAP, TRAX, Quantum Control and Ultramain
Services:
AeroBuy - a comprehensive, catalogue-based procurement system with full electronic connections to the aviation supply chain.
AeroRepair - a solution that seamlessly enables end-to-end business process automation of the entire repair order lifecycle.
AeroAOG - a comprehensive, e-commerce application used to mitigate the impact of AOG situations and to more efficiently
manage the airline's loan/borrow/exchange business.
AeroSourcing - a negotiation platform with full electronic connections to the aviation airline supply chain.
AeroConsignment - a complete solution used to optimally manage consignment stocks between multiple trading partners.
AeroComponent - a comprehensive, online application used to manage all components under quot;Support Contractsquot; with a single or
multiple Component Providers.
AeroDex - a business intelligence tool that enables you to make better decisions in order to manage your aviation company.
Sourcing Process Management Services - a world-class team of sourcing experts who recognize the airline industry procures a
variety of commodities and services that are critical to their daily operations.
Equity Owners of AeroXchange identified in BLUE. NWA’s equity will transfer to Delta Air Lines upon completion of the merger in late 2008.
Airlines in BOLD are implementing or evaluating Mxi’s Maintenix solution.
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CONFIDENTIAL
17. Aviation MRO Trends: Bundled MRO Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) and
Software as a Service (SaaS) are merging into Collaboration Services.
17
HAECO is pleased to offer Fleet Technical Management (FTM) and Inventory Technical Management (ITM), two
comprehensive total support packages that provide cost-effective, customized engineering and maintenance
solutions. Airlines have recognized, in a highly competitive environment, they need to focus on their core
competence of flight operations, maximizing revenue/yield and driving out costs by allowing HAECO to provide
technical management services through a dedicated team of professionals that covers all aspects of airline
engineering functions to ensure fleet operational safety and airworthiness requirement are totally complied with,
to the satisfaction of operators' QA and regulatory authorities. HAECO selected and implemented Russell Adams
enterprise:airline to provide the Fleet Technical Management (FTM) capability.
Lufthansa Technik’s unique Technical Operations web suite, manage/m™, allows commercial aircraft operators
to manage all core functions of their fleet’s regulatory, engineering, maintenance and supply chain operations as
a completely web-based system. All they need is access to the Internet.
Rounding out Lufthansa Technik’s Total Technical Services all-encompassing portfolio of maintenance, repair
and overhaul (MRO) services, the modules of manage/m™ comprise a complete range of airline proven support
functions that permit operators to live up to their responsibilities to the aviation authorities. manage/m™ improves
effectiveness and efficiency offering real added value. manage/m™ is powered by Swiss Aviation Software’s
AMOS solution.
Lufthansa Technik is proud to sponsor the official READI – web suite application! The purpose for the Reliability
Exchange of Airline Data International (READI) is to provide a forum for the exchange of operational benchmark
data, establishing the performance metric fleet Mechanical Scheduled Performance (MSP). READI is hosted by
FedEx and currently comprises 30 airlines and OEMs.
Boeing CAS, Boeing IDS, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, Rolls Royce DS&S, Bombardier, Embraer, Delta
TechOps, KLM / AFI all have similar offerings in place or in some stage of realization
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CONFIDENTIAL
18. Lufthansa’s corporate strategy and execution already includes SaaS capabilities.
18
Lufthansa AG
Airlines
Cargo
Catering
Maintenance
Technologies
Finance & Investing
Lufthansa Airlines Lufthansa Cargo LSG SkyChef Lufthansa Technik Lufthansa Systems LH Holdings
LHT Logistics
Passenger Cargo Carrier Catering Customized Finance & Investing
LHT Philippians,
Services Freight Forwarding proprietary version Leasing
Sofia, Malta, Tulsa,
3PL Services of SAP A&D IS 3.0 Consulting
Alitalia, Budapest, Travel Mgt
Shannon, AMECO,
Airliance, Amadeus
Shenzhen, CSA
LHT Airline Customers
Swiss International
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CONFIDENTIAL
19. Aviation MRO Trends: Total Services Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) and
Software as a Service (SaaS) are merging into Collaboration Services.
19
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise has an amazing business vision
Behind the $15 billion Dubai Aerospace Enterprise is a very shrewd appreciation of business trends and a clear
strategy to put Dubai at the head of the next big thing – aviation services.
The business concept here is to create a center of innovation for aviation, from the leasing and maintenance of
planes to training personnel at a new aviation university to operating private airports and even manufacturing
aircraft components.
Leveraging the fact that the Middle East and North Africa region will take 58% of wide bodied aircraft deliveries
between 2005 and 2025, and 50% of recent new narrow body aircraft orders have been in the Middle East as the
regional carriers are in the process of doubling their fleets.
DAE has a phased business plan to create an aviation center of excellence at the new Jebel Ali airport complex,
and has established six operational subsidiaries across 14 industry segments. Further announcements are to
follow for each business sector as this bold business plan is transformed into reality.
DAE Capital Aircraft leasing, Financing and Insurance with value-added services and a global presence.
DAE Manufacturing Delivering cutting-edge research & development, manufacturing and assembly.
DAE University An aviation campus for all levels of education, attracting both national and international students.
DAE Airports Airport development and operations that lead the world in reputation and returns.
DAE Engineering The global centre for aviation maintenance and support through acquisitions and partnerships.
DAE Services An emerging world class solution provider in the aviation industry, focusing on offering technology based products,
business services and outsourcing.
By 2015, DAE is expected to employ 30,000 people and to have 8,000 students a year passing through its
university
This is yet another example of Dubai Inc. spotting a new opportunity through global business and technology
trends and mobilizing its immense resources to capitalize at the opening.
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21. Aviation MRO Trends: Engineering Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) and
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) are merging into Collaboration Services.
21
Goldcare Network Partners
Americas Europe / MENA AsiaPac
?
OR
Maintenance Back Office
(MIS) (ERP)
OR
OR
“Technology is the key enabler of this kind of collaboration,
which involves a significant amount of product lifecycle management
across multiple countries. Boeing requires all its partners on the 787
to use an application called Catia, made by Dassault, and the plane is
designed at a special online site, maintained by Boeing, called the
Global Collaboration Environment. Goldcare customers, will also
benefit from advance engineering, maintenance and supply
chain management collaboration technologies that will
significantly reduce and predictably smooth lifecycle costs.”
Source: Boeing Co. as reported in CIO Insight magazine, 6 March, 2007
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22. Aviation MRO Trends: Sustainment Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) and
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) are merging into Collaboration Services.
22
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CONFIDENTIAL
24. Capability Sourcing Framework
24
Increasing
Business Agility to Respond to Change
Decreasing Risks (Operational, Financial & Technology)
Managed Leased
Decreasing Cost per Unit Capability-Maturity
On-Call
On- On-Demand
On-
Structure of Capability Delivery
Fixed S/W & Processes (BPO / MBS) Configurable S/W & Processes (On-Demand/SaaS)
(On- Demand/SaaS)
1:N Industry & Function-specific Solution
Function- 1:N Industry & Client-specific Solution
Client-
Fixed Version Capability Maturity Agile & Continuous Capability Maturity
External Infrastructure (Grid Computing) External Infrastructure (Utility Computing)
Dedicated Delivery Ubiquitous Delivery
Process Pricing / Shared Cost Subscription Pricing / Shared Cost
Buy Build
On-Premise
On- On-Premise
On-
COTS S/W (BoB or Suite)
(BoB Custom S/W (SDLC)
1:1 Industry or Function-specific Solution
Function- 1:1 Client-specific Solution
Client-
Fixed Version Capability Maturity Ad Hoc Capability Maturity
Internal Infrastructure (Data Centers) Internal Infrastructure (Data Centers)
Specialized Delivery Customized Delivery
Capital + Operations Pricing / Customer of 1 Cost Capital + Operations Pricing / Customer of 1 Cost
Structure, Agility & Functional Fit of Solution Product / Service
Decreasing Cost per Unit Capability-Maturity
Increasing Business Agility to Respond to Change
Decreasing Risks (Operational, Financial & Technology)
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25. Aviation MRO Trends: LCCs are transitioning to more Managed or Leased Services.
25
Increasing Business Agility to Respond to Change
Decreasing Cost per Unit Capability-Maturity
Decreasing Risks (Operational, Financial & Technology)
Managed Leased
Off-Premise On-Demand
Air Asia
Capability Orientation & Outcome Centric Thinking Effects Orientation & Causality Centric Thinking
Fixed S/W & Processes (BPO / MBS) Custom / Configurable S/W (BoB: ASP or SaaS)
1:N Function-specific 1:N Client / Industry-specific
Structure of Capability Delivery
Bundled Infrastructure (Grid Computing) Bundled Infrastructure (Utility Computing)
Dedicated Delivery Open / Services Oriented Delivery
Virgin America
LHT manage/m (AMOS) Sabre / Mxi eMergo
Air Arabia
Skybus
Boeing / Mxi Goldcare
Boeing Ops Center (Mxi)
US Airways
Airbus Airman
Lockheed ALIS (Mxi)
Ryan Air LHT / AMOS
HAECO FTM (RA)
New US Airways
Southwest
AMOS Sceptre
Mxi Technologies Merlin
Singapore
Russell Adams MEMIS
AA
Lufthansa
TRAX TPF
Alitalia
America West
Buy Build
On-Premise On-Premise
Process Orientation Functional Orientation
United
Delta
Output Centric Thinking Input Centric Thinking
Fixed / Configurable S/W (Suite + BoB) Custom S/W (SDLC)
1:1 Industry-specific 1:1 Client-specific
Hosted Infrastructure (Data Centers) Internal Infrastructure (Data Centers)
Standardized Delivery Customized Delivery
Structure, Agility & Functional Fit of Solution Product / Service
Decreasing Cost per Unit Capability-Maturity
Increasing Business Agility to Respond to Change
Decreasing Risks (Operational, Financial & Technology)
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CONFIDENTIAL
26. Aviation MRO Trends: Legacy carriers and MROs have a chokepoint to collaboration.
26
BOEING
AIRBUS
Cabin
eLogbook / EFB Flight Deck Collaboration
Global Ops
AIRTAC
Network
MIS
S1000D MIS Centre
Avioniques
AIRLINE
Goldcare
AirPl@n
S4000M
S4000M
Engineering & Maintenance Flight Operations
AIRMAN Aircraft
In-service Reliability
Data Mgt Management
PHM AirN@v IETM / IETP CREW
FOS
AHM
S5000F S1000D
S5000F
Integrated
AirSpares Airline MIS
Materials
Services (Maintenance
Management
S2000M S1000D
Information System)
S2000M
Collaboration Chokepoint
Airbus MRO Network
Boeing Goldcare Network
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SX0001
CONFIDENTIAL
27. Aviation MRO Trends: ASD SX0001 is the new standards for aviation MRO.
27
The Office of the Secretary of Defense, NATO, and ALL leading members of the AIA,
ASD and ATA have signed an agreement to converge on the ASD SX0001 standards.
Aviation Sustainment Lifecycle Management (SLM)
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28. Aviation MRO Trends: Collaboration architecture will be based on SX0001 and SOA.
28
ISO 10303 S5000F Flight SCORM ERP ERP
S1000D S2000M
International International International Finance, Human Capital
Operations International International
Specification for Specification for Specification for Accounting & Management –
Specification for Specification for
Systems
Product Data Service Data Advanced Controlling via Recruiting,
Technical Materiel
Management Capture & Operations Control Distributed SAS 70 processes Succession,
Publications Management
(PDM) & Computer Management / Maintenance Learning using and procedures On-Boarding,
(IETP / IETM) (SCM) using
Aided Design, using ISO 13374 Control, Air Traffic the Shareable compliance Talent, Training
using a EDI / XML
Engineering & OSA-CBM, Control, Weight & Content Object and Learning
Common Source Automated
Manufacturing ACARS, On-Board Balance and Reference Model Management
Data Base (CSDB) Processing
(CAD, CAE, CAM) Systems & FOQA Dispatch
LDAP & PKI
J2EE Web Service Universal Adapter (ESB / SOA) Security Services
Device, Printer & Wireless
ISO 10303
S4000M S3000L
AP 239
Services
International International
Specification for
MIS Application and
Specification and
Product Life Cycle Procedures Procedures
Management Handbook for Handbook for
(PLCS) & Multi-
MRO Information System
RCM / MSG3 Logistics Support
Dimensional Scheduled Analysis (LSA)
Configuration Maintenance and
Management Reliability Analysis
(MDCM)
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CONFIDENTIAL
29. Aviation MRO IT Market Segments Comparison
29
Aviation MRO COTS Software Products
Evaluation Criteria
A B C D E F G H I J
A Airlines
B Defense
C Third Party MRO
D Airframe OEM
E Engine OEM
F Biz Jet / GA
G Helicopter
H SaaS / On Demand
= Market Presence of 2 or more customers with full running implementations
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30. Point of View: The Strategic Positioning of select Aviation IT Vendors
30
System Economics Strategy
Increasing Bonding Quotient
Microsoft
Wal-Mart Southwest
Total Solution Strategy Best Product Strategy
Blue Water Solutions
CONFIDENTIAL
31. Software as a Service dominates growth stocks and Wall Street IPOs.
31
Fortune: Hot IPOs of ’08, “If 2007 was a good indicator, the kinds of private tech companies that will make it into the public
markets this year feature either a technological innovation or a business model innovation or both that give customers lower
costs and flexibility. On-demand software companies like Success Factors (SFSF), K12 (LRN) and more recently NetSuite (N)
managed to get out the IPO door on the back of their business model innovation. In the wings are SugarCRM, PeopleClick,
BlueRoads, BlueTie, Cloud9 and Dave Duffield’s Workday. Open-source (Red Hat, mySQL) is another category being
welcomed by the Street, as is virtualization (VMware & XenSource.”
Goldman Sacks: Getting SaaS savvy is On-Demand in 2008, “Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is one of the most important
trends in business at present, and will become pervasive over the next several years. We expect SaaS to expand the total
addressable market for enterprise software, with growth in SaaS outpacing growth of the overall software market for the next
three to five years. Large on-premise only application vendors such as Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP will embrace the trend.
Despite this, small and pure-plays should continue to dominate in the near term, with an ongoing rapid entry of new companies
into the market, and a healthy IPO market.
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CONFIDENTIAL
32. Services based companies deliver higher Economic Value Add (EVA) …
32 IATA / McKinsey Aviation Eco-System Value Analysis
20
15
15
1996-2000
vs
10.5 2000-2004
Return Weighted Spread (ROIC - WACC) % %
10
Weighted EVA (ROIC - WACC)
5.1
4.4
5
3.7
2.8
2.2
0.5
0.3
0
-0.2
-0.4
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.8
-5
-5.5
Freight Airframe MRO Travel
CRS/GDS Forwarders Leasors OEM Services Agencies Airports Airlines
-10
Source: IATA and McKinsey & Co. “Aviation Value Chain Profitability – IATA Economics Report 2004”
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CONFIDENTIAL
33. … and higher EVR multiples due to predictableMultiples
cash flows and locked in EPS.
33
Enterprise Value to Revenue
12.00
10.00
Enterprise Value per dollar Revenue (EVR Multiple)
8.00
5.90 EOY 2005
6.00
EOY 2007
4.10
4.00
2.80
S&P Avg 2.8
1.85
2.00
0.91 0.81
0.45
0.13
0.00
ARBA WEBX TLEO KNXA RNOW ULTI CNQR VSCN CRM SAAS SEG S&P EU US EU US US /
Avg Top-10 1000 LCC LCC Legacy Legacy LCC
Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg
Source: Capital IQ Data Services (a Division of Standard & Poor’s) dtd 8 January, 2008
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34. Delta’s Billion Dollar Value Innovation: The Story
34
On 20 December, 2007, open source technology leader Red Hat announced the election of James M.
Whitehurst, as President, Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors. Mr. Whitehurst
was most recently Delta Air Lines’ Chief Operating Officer, responsible for Flight and Technical
Operations, Marketing and Sales, Customer Service, Network and Revenue Management and Corporate
Strategy. Prior to joining Delta in 2002, Mr. Whitehurst served as Vice President of The Boston Consulting
Group (BCG). Between 1998 and 2002, Jim lead Delta’s eCommerce group, which planned IT strategy
and evaluated IT investments for Delta Air Lines, Delta Technologies, DL’s wholly owned subsidiary, and
collaborated with Worldspan, DL’s joint venture with Northwest Airlines and Trans World Airlines.
It was during this period that Jim and Vince Caminiti, SVP Sales for Delta, identified direct online
marketing and sales channels as a value innovation for DL to simultaneously reduce the cost of sales by
bypassing the monopolistic CRS/GDS vendors and travel agent commissions and increase load factors,
reduce excess capacity and increase customer intimacy by demonstrating that DL was a fair value fare
provider. Included in the agreement to open DL’s inventory to Priceline.com was a $18M warrant for
1.86M shares at $0.93 per share. Between 1999 and 2003, DL exercised warrants and options returning
$1.134B in pre-tax cash to shareholders at a five year IRR(5) of 129%. It could be said that timing was
everything in that DL luckily liquidated 62.7% of their investment in 1999 near the peak of the dot-com
bubble. A downwardly adjusted post dot-com bust average price of $29/sh would still have yielded $199M
in pre-tax cash to shareholders at a five year IRR(5) of 61.7%.
Priceline.com was one of several equity, debt and cash IT investments Delta Air Lines made over the past
decade which, like American Airlines, the old US Airways and Lufthansa, yielded higher Economic Value
Add than traditional IT sourcing methods and significantly higher Total Shareholder Return than other
direct reinvestments in operations.
Source: Delta Air Lines annual reports FY2000, CY2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
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35. Delta’s Billion Dollar Value Innovation: The Results
35
$1,200
$1134
IRR(5) = 129%
$1,000
$800
$ in Millions
$600
$1,134
Investment (Net Cash)
Return (Net Pre-Tax Cash)
$400
$711
$199
IRR(5) = 61.7%
$200
$301
$199
$127
$13
$-
1999 2000 2001 2002 Actual Pre-Tax Adjusted Pre-
Net Cash Flow Tax Net @ Avg
$18
$29/sh
$(200)
Year
Source: Delta Air Lines annual reports FY2000, CY2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
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36. The question is …
36
Where are you today and where do you want to be tomorrow?
Can you articulate your strategic competitive advantage in one sentence?
Which of the 15 aerospace sub-industries should you invest R&D, marketing & sales resources
in - and when and - in what order and - in what geographies?
Which strategic forces are driving change in each sub-industry and geography?
Which bundle of process and technology services are most attractive in each sub-industry and
in which geographies?
Which bundle of process and technology services are “cost of doing business” / low margin
commodities vs “cost of winning business” / high margin innovations?
Which strategic position (Best Product, Total Solution, System Lock-In) can you pursue and
which should you pursue and how?
Who could / should you partner with and develop alliances with?
What should your branding image be and how can your marketing material address the various
strategic forces?
What is your go-to-market plan and schedule and how do you align marketing and the sales
force in order to be ready to execute?
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37. Our approach is … Strategy is a cyclical analytical continuous improvement process
37
Successful companies
have a well defined
3 Strategy Formulation
process to continuously
Strategy
sense, interpret, decide
and respond (SIDR) to Hax: Bonding Theory
industry change across
multiple long view
4 Competition Analysis
Industry
Competitive
scenarios.
Porter: Forces Model
Structure
Positioning
2 Industry Analysis
Schwartz, Lindgren, Kim & Mauborgne: Blue Ocean / Scenarios
Governance
1 Set the strategic agenda
S Haeckel, Cebrowski, Bradley & Nolan: Sense
Successful companies 5 Target customer value
have architected their Peters, Keen, Smith & Khalsa: Focus
P T
businesses to be agile 6 Open collaboration
(plug and play) in order to Womak, Harry & Breyfogle: 6σ / Lean
O 7 Peer innovation
efficiently adapt to
Kanter, Christensen & Gottfredson: Collaborate
change, to effectively take
advantage of unique
Critical Success (CSF)
situations and to
8 Values & Metrics
continuously measure Key Process (KPI) Senge, Kaplan & Norton: Balance
and mature capabilities.
9 Sense & ObserveOODA: Decide, Act
Observe,
Execution S Orient,
John Boyd,
COL/USAF ret.
10 Interpret & OrientSIDR: Sense,
Interpret, Decide,
R I 11 Decide Respond - Stephen
P. Bradley &
Richard L. Nolan;
D 12 Respond & Act Stephan H.
Haeckel
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38. 38
Blue Water Solutions, Inc
Accelerating the future
of Aviation Maintenance
2235 Bent Creek Manor
Alpharetta, GA 30005
O: 678.524.8289
F: 770.777.4759
E-mail: info@avioxi.com
www.avioxi.com Blue Water Solutions
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