1. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Henny A.J. van Lanen
Recent achievements in drought research and
science-policy interfacing

2. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Water under future climate
Schewe et al. (PNAS, 2013)
Change annual flow

3. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Urgent questions
What is the current situation globally, and in Europe?
What are the observed trends?
● Do we observe more frequent or severe drought?
What will the future bring?
● Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought?
● Will water become more scarce?
What to do?

4. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought: recurrent phenomenon
EEA (2012)

5. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought – trends observed flow
Stahl et al., HESS (2010)
OBSERVED mean annual flow OBSERVED August flow

6. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Lack of
observed river
flow
Unequal spatial
distribution
Stahl et al. (HESS, 2010)
Drought – trends observed flow

7. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought: pan-European trends
Trends in
SIMULATED
August flow
(1963-2001)
decreasing
increasing
Stahl et al. (HESS, 2012)

8. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought: model uncertainty
Van Huijgevoort et al.
(J of Hydrometeo, 2013)
Model agreement: drought in runoff

9. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Trends and interdecal variability
Hannaford et al. (HESS, 2012)
Start year
dryer wetter

10. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Trends and interdecal variability
Hannaford et al. (HESS, 2012)

11. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought trend identification
Confidence limited / uncertainty:
lack of observational data
definitional issues
inability of models to include all the factors that
influence droughts
e.g. IPCC-SREX (2012)

12. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Urgent questions
What is the current situation globally, and in Europe?
What are the observed trends?
● Do we observe more frequent or severe drought?
What will the future bring?
● Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought?
● Will water become more scarce?
What to do?

13. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought

14. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future DROUGHT
IPCC SPM WGI (2013)
Photo: Jay Janner
IPCC – AR5: Likelihood of further changes
Early 21st century: low confidence
Late 21st century: likely (medium confidence) on a
regional to global scale

15. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Orlowski & Seneviratne
(HESS, 2013)
Mediterranean
soil moisture drought
meteorological drought

16. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Orlowski & Seneviratne
(HESS, 2013)
Mediterranean
soil moisture drought
Central Europe
meteorological drought

17. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Mediterranean
Number of
droughts
Wanders & Van Lanen, (NHESSD, 2013)

18. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Mediterranean
Average drought
duration
Wanders & Van Lanen, (NHESSD, 2013)

19. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Future hydrological drought
(model performance past)
Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014)
Kolyma (Siberia) Meuse (F-B-NL)

20. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Future hydrological drought
(change in low flows)
Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014)
Kolyma (Siberia) Meuse (F-B-NL)

21. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Future hydrological drought
(change in low flows)
Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014)

22. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future Water stress in Europe
Floerke et al. (2011);
EEA (2012)

23. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Challenges (example folllow-up)
Dialogue Fora (e.g. scientists,
policy makers, stakeholders)
Science-Policy interfacing across scales
 Case Study Dialogue Platform Fora (6
Case Study Areas)
 pan-European Dialogue Platform
Forum

24. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
EU-FP7 DROUGHT-R&SPI
Dialogue Fora: different scales/novel formats
www.eu-drought.org

25. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Challenges (examples-follow-up)
DROUGHT and WATER SCARCITY
platforms:
● EU-WFD Expert Group on
Water Scarcity and Drought
● European Drought Centre (EDC)
● European Drought Observatory (EDO)
● GWP Integrated Drought Management
Programme (e.g. IDMP CEE)

26. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
European Drought Centre (EDC)
www.geo.uio.no/edc

27. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
European Drought Centre (EDC)
EDC: signing up
www.geo.uio.no/edc

28. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
European Drought Centre (EDC)
EDC: signing up
www.geo.uio.no/edc

29. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought and Water Scarcity
Concluding Remarks
● Observed trends in drought heavily depend on selected period
(climate variability vs. change)
● Drought projection are uncertain, but we should distinguish between
types/typologies
● Water scarcity depends on socio-economic/environmental scenario
we decide to follow
● Drought management is part of integrated land and water
management and should combine both natural and social sciences
● Various platforms to exchange knowledge and experiences across
drought expertise’ fields

30. Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Thank you