Presentation of 5.5 Demonstration Project

1. Presentation of the 5.5
Demonstration Project
Prof. Dr. János Tamás
1st Workshop
Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and
Eastern Europe, Slovakia
Date: 15 – 16 October 2013

2. Policy oriented study on remote sensing
agricultural drought monitoring methods
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Partners of Activity
GWP HUNGARY
University of Debrecen
University of Oradea
Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of
Sciences

3. Key qualifications of partners
• Hungary (University of Debrecen and GWP HU):
– Applied hydrological remote sensing and GIS;
– Spatial Decision Supporting Systems
• Romania (University of Oradea):
- Geography and Integrated watershed management
• Slovakia (Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences):
- Agricultural water management, Soil hydrology

4. Task definition
• The drought types: meteorological, hydrological and
agricultural
• The drought indexes of meteorological and hydrological
drought parameters well-measurable and widely tested
(temperature, precipitation, humidity, water level etc.)
• The agricultural drought least quantified in soil-waterplant environment, the most uncertain drought type.
• The main objective of this case study is to formulate
concrete practical agricultural drought monitoring method
and intervention levels with calibrating for the important
crops and fruits (wheat, corn and apple)

5. 1. Analysis of
green and
brown water
status
Finalize OUTPUT 1:
An analysis report on
the role of soil and
crop water content
status in
waterbalance within
different agricultural,
landuse and water
management
practices at rain fed
and irrigated systems
for the most important
crops and fruit (wheat,
corn and apple)
2. RS tools for
2. RS tools for
vegetation indices
vegetation
indices
3. Agricultural
3. Agricultural
drought decision
drought decision
support parameters
support
parameters
Finalize OUTPUT 3:
Report on integration of
RS and GIS tools and
intervention levels into
drought monitoring
system
Sept 2013 – Jun 2014
June 2013-Dec 2013
Finalize OUTPUT 2:
Toolbox with the concrete
identification of remote
sensing and GIS data
tools for agricultural
drought monitoring and
forecast
May 2014 – Jan 2015

6. Process flow of RS agricultural drought monitoring methods
Meteorological
Data
Calibration
with Drought
Index
Calibration
with available
water content
SDSS
Classification
NDVI
Time
Series
Land
use
mask
Soil Physical
Data
Calibration
with Yield
statistical
data
Plant Specific
Drought Risk
Evaluation
Watch
Varning
Alert

7. STUDY AREA-SITE SELECTION
The Tisa River Basin is the largest subbasin in the Danube River Basin, covering
157,186 km² (19.5%) of the Danube Basin.
Sk
Drought Risk on Hungarian Great Plain
HU
Ro

8. Modis Terra/Aqua
Ground res. From 250 m
36 band, Cycle: 1 d
6 Y LONG TIME SERIES of WHEAT NDVI
DROUGHT IMPACT

9. DROUGHT IMPACT ON NDVI BIOMASS
NDVI

10. Relation of NDVI Biomass and Drought YIELD LOSS
Biomass -NDVI
Relative Yield
Loss
Potential yield loss is changing in time
End result is depend on climatic, soil
condition
If we calibrate the NDVI TS with real
yield loss data and combined with soil
data, and meteorological Drought
Index, we can estimate the expected
different crops yield loss by region by
region.

11. Database Building
The case study will utilize the available database prepared for the Tisza River
Basin.
Crop data – Remote sensing time series
Selection of training sites
Spectral data noise filtering
Rectification (UTM system)
Cropping and mosaicing of reference area
Indexing
Statistical time series data of yields
Soil data- digital soil map
Common soil physical database of reference area
Common topology and coordinate system of reference area
Calculation of available water capacity
Calculation of water balance on watersheds
Meteorological data – Drought Index SPI,
fAPAR
Sources: USGS, ESA, Literature, Scientific reports, Publications, Media, Statistical
reports, Owner data,

12. Winter Wheat - Yield data sources
Winter wheat yield T/County- Tisza Hungarian region
Winter wheat –yield/ area- Hungary
Hectically yield
(Drought effect)
Same Growing Area
Source: AKI, Hungary

13. Automatic sensors to control soil water on East-Slovakian plan
Tisza river north watershed
Slovakian reference site

14. Measurements of field soil sensors
Agrometeorological data
Implemented sensor:
Groundwater level
Soil temperature
Available water content
Precipitation

15. Monitoring panel of soil water content
Available soil water content on remote controlled panel
Water content in different soil layers

16. CRISURILOR PLAIN – Romanian reference site
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The Crisuri Plain is situated
in the mid part of the
Western Plain (between
Barcau and Mures rivers).
The total surface area of
the plain is 3600 sqkm.
Altitudes vary between 90180 m.
Along Barcau, Crisul Alb,
Crisul Negru, Cigher rivers.

17. CRISURILOR PLAIN – Meteorological data
12,5
12,5
0C
0C
Oradea
12
12
Linear (Oradea)
11,5
Holod
Linear (Holod)
11,5
11
11
10,5
10,5
10
10
9,5
9,5
9
y = 0,032x + 9,7834
R2 = 0,2155
8,5
9
y = 0,0386x + 9,6294
R2 = 0,306
8,5
8
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71
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01
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03
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05
20
07
8
12
12,5
0C
12
11,5
0C
11,5
Săcueni
Linear (Săcueni)
11
11
Chişineu Criş
Linear (Chişineu Criş)
10,5
10,5
10
10
9,5
9,5
9
9
8,5
y = 0,0354x + 9,7966
2
8,5
y = 0,0164x + 9,9476
2
R = 0,0809
R = 0,2504
8
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8
AIR TEMPERATURE
at Oradea (up left),
Holod
(up
right),
Săcueni (down left),
Chişineu Criş (down
right)
meteorological
Station from 1975-1980
to present.

18. CRISURILOR PLAIN –Meteorological Data
950
mm
850
Linear (Oradea)
MEAN
ANNUAL
RAINFALL at Oradea (up
left), Holod (up right),
Săcueni
(down
left),
Chişineu Criş (down right)
meteorological Station from
1994-
mm
Holod
Oradea
Linear (Holod)
850
750
750
650
650
550
550
450
y = 0,2548x + 687,37
R2 = 0,0005
y = 1,5343x + 588,36
R2 = 0,0181
350
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73
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75
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77
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79
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81
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350
a
850
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450
mm
800
Săcueni
950
mm
Chișineu Criş
Linear (Chișineu Criş)
Linear (Săcueni)
750
850
700
750
650
600
650
550
550
450
400
y = 2,4334x + 536
R2 = 0,0528
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71
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97
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20
01
20
03
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05
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350
b
450
y = 6,2134x + 488,47
R2 = 0,2042
350
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500

19. CRISURILOR PLAIN LANDUSE
Nr.
crt.
Type of land use
Surface (ha)
Percentage (%)
1
Unirrigated agricultural land
193633,017
55,784
2
Secondary pastures
69458,290
20,010
3
Discontinuous urban and rural space
18086,764
5,211
4
Deciduous forests
17770,277
5,119
5
Swamps
15760,909
4,541
6
Predominant agricultural land mixed with natural vegetation
12894,911
3,715
7
Complex agricultural crops
6057,103
1,745
8
Industrial and commercial bodies
4340,424
1,250
9
Vineyards
3004,937
0,866
10
Water bodies
2367,766
0,682
11
Rivers
1246,070
0,359
12
13
14
Natural pastures
Transition shrub areas
Rice fields
563,606
548,625
372,402
0,162
0,158
0,107
15
Orchards
243,782
0,070
16
Continuous urban space
222,456
0,064
17
Airfields
136,557
0,039
18
Waste dumps
132,569
0,038
19
Recreational areas
131,535
0,038
20
Coniferous forests
76,446
0,022
Green urban areas
61,998
0,018
21
(source :Institutul Naţional de Cercetare-Dezvoltare „Delta Dunării”: http://www.indd.tim.ro) ) 100,000
347110,444

20. CRISURILOR PLAIN - SOIL DATA
Main soil classes
(SourceOSPA Bihor)
Main soil types

21. CRISURILOR PLAIN
The distribution of cernoziom soil within
Crisurilor Plain
(source, Harta Solurilor României, scale 1:
200.000, I.G.F.C.O.T., Bucureşti)

22. Physical Implementation of different stake holder
intervention points
- Watch: When a plant water stress is observed in sensitive
phenological phases
- Early Warning: When relevant a plant water stress is observed,
available soil moisture is close to critical, Predicted potential yield loss
<10%- Preparation to intervention
Warning: When this plant stress translates into significant biomass
damage
Potential yield loss <20%
Alert: when these two conditions are accompanied by an anomaly in
the irreversible vegetation damage Potential yield loss <30%
Catastrophe: When have to mitigate serious damages. Potential yield
loss <40%

23. SUMMARY
• The status of 5.5 activity based on Gantt table of
IDMP is correct
• Partners almost done data acquisition
• Further work focus on data coherency to integrate all
data
• End of this year we start the 10 years long time series
analysis (green and brown water) on reference site

24. THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION
1st WORKSHOP IDMP, SLOVAKIA