Activity 5.6 upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting - UA and MD

1. IDMP: Activity 5.6 upgrading
agricultural drought monitoring and
forecasting - UA and MD
1st Workshop IDMP in CEE,
15-16 October 2013, Hodrusa Hamre, Slovakia

2. Main outcomes
Upgraded climate-zoning of Ukraine territory and Dniester
River Basin territory
Drought risk maps for agro sector of Ukraine and Dniester RB
– identification of drought prone areas
Development of forecasting models for identification of crop
yield losses caused by droughts (3 crops) UA
Development of proposals for the precipitation harvesting
and practices for moisture conservation in agro lands - MD
Drought remedial measures for the agro sector
Policy makers and stakeholders awareness raising on DM,
planning

3. Agro climatic zoning of Ukrainene
Made in 1990s based on meteorogical data 1956-1985 for efficient
using of climatic resources and increasing productivity of crops.
To assess water holding capacity of the territory.
Key index for zoning- hydro-thermic index Selyaninova (HTI)
ГТК = R/0.1∑ T
R – Sum of precipitation for period with air t > +10º С
∑ T - sum of average daily air t >+10º С
3 agro-climatic zones
Marshy- possibility of soil droughts 0-10%;
Forest-Steeper - possibility of droughts 15-40%;
Steeper - droughts possibility 40-70%.

4. Agricultural climatic zones Ukraine
Marshy
Agricultural climatic zones
Forest-steppe
Marshy-over norm moisture zone
Annual precipitation – 570-760 мм
Forest-steppe-normal moiture zone
Annual precipitation – 575-650 мм
Steppe- lower moisture zone
Annual precipitation – 350-540 мм
Steppe-

5. 1.4
1.2
1
0.8
Anomalies of regional
average annual air
temperature
(°С) in Ukraine as
compared with the
baseline period (1961-1990)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1901- 1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2000- 20111910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
2.5
Anomalies of the average
annual air temperature
(° С) during the period of
1989-2012 years as
compared with the baseline
period (1961-1990)
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII

6. •
•
•
•
•
•
Uninterrupted data of 136 stations for 60-140 observation period were analyzed for Ukraine
Temperature and .precipitation data analyzed
Nowadays climate of Ukraine is characterized by unsymmetrical warming in space ( on territory)
especially in winter and summer months. Average annual t increases more then on 0,8°С.
Increasing t in cold period is in average 1,35°С, in warm period – 1,1°С.
Average annual precipitation quantity in Ukraine has no changed. For base line period19611990 – 576 mm, for period 1991-2012 - 595 mm.
There is substantial changes in the precipitation distribution during year. In winter (January,
February) there is a decreasing on 1/5. in summer the precipitation quantity has increased on 515% in average.
There is no positive effect of precipitation increasing in summer time because of intensive
increasing of air t in the same time.

7. 800
700
600
500
Annual amount of
400
precipitation in Ukraine, mm
300
200
100
0
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
20
%
•
Changes of
precipitation
amount (% of the
norm of 19611990) in Ukraine
by months for the
period of 19912012 years.
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII год

8. •
•
•
•
•
•
Planning for the next 6 months
Analysis of long term data of water holding capacity of different laywers of
soil (0-20 and 0-100 cm)
The experimental data on accessible water holding ( for winter wheat and
spring barley) in typical soils for each of zones on test fields
for changes assessment during 1961-2012 the data of 15 meteorological
stations will be used.
Trends in soil water holding under climate change will be analyzed.
The droughts risk zones changing possibility will be preliminary assessed.

9. Schema
regiunilor teritoriale şi bazinele de apă
a Republicii Moldova
K
Agroclimatic zones of the Republic of Moldova based
on the annual precipitation sum
U
R
1
P ru
2
t
R
Edineţ
Soroca
3
1
3
A
2
O
5
4
Rîbniţ a
Bălţi
4
I
River basin in the
Republic of Moldova
M
5
Danube basin
Forest steppeOrhei
zone
6
6
with precipitation
7
level 500-550 mm
Ungeni
Ă
N
Dnester basin
Dubăsari
Chiş in ău
8
7
9
Bazinele rîurilor principale
3
Nistru
10
Leovo
Steppe zone with annual
2
precipitation level 270-300
Comrat
11
mm
Cahul
1
A
Dunărea: Prut;1-Lopatinca; 2-Racovăţ;
3-Ciugur ; 4-Camenca; 5-Gîrla-Mare;
6-Delia;7-Brătuleanca; 8- Nîrnova;
9-Lăpuşna;10-Sărata; 11-Larga;
Ialpuh; Lunga; Catlabuh; Chitai; Cahul.
A
I
Bazinele rîurilor de ordinea I
Nistru: 1-Camenca; 2- Beloci;
3-Ciornaia; 4-Iagorlîc;5-Răut;
6-Icheli; 7-Bîc; 8- Botna; Cogîlnic;
Ciaga; Hadjidăr ; etc.
8
Căuşeni
N
Dunărea
Tiraspol
Bender
Hî nceşti

10. Statistical data on the slope inclination on the arable lands in
Moldavian part of the Dnester basin in th. ha
Arable < 1
lands degre
e
1-2
degre
e
2-3
degre
e
3-5
degre
e
5-7
degre
e
7-10
degre
e
10-15
degre
e
> 15
degre
e
1175
210
240
270
155
28
29
6
234

11. There are 178 soil types on the
territory of Moldova (including Dnester
basin).
All soils differently degraded and various types contain different content of
moisture.

12. Experimental fields for moisture research (superficial
runoff measurements - solid and liquid part)

13. Moisture determination is conducted on a scientific experiment of the
Institute of Pedology, and Agrochemistry and Soil Protection “N. Dimo” ,
which has 500 hectares of the experimental fiedls in the southern part of the
Republic of Moldova with different types ofcrops.
The fields are placed on the slopes with a different slant: 1-30, 3-50, >70.

14. Fire of the straw after harvesting

15. 1887
1889
1891
1893
1895
1897
1899
1901
1903
1905
1907
1909
1911
1913
1915
1917
1919
1921
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Annual temperature modifications 1887-2012 (a) and
anomalies for the period 1961-1990 (b)
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
-2,5
-3

16. 1891
1893
1895
1897
1899
1901
1903
1905
1907
1909
1911
1913
1915
1917
1919
1921
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Annual precipitation in the Dnester basin
1000
900
y = 0,6448x + 484,88
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

17. Further steps
•
•
•
•
•
Identification of the moisture retention capacities of soil in different parts of
the Dnester basin
Harvest losses due to the different moisture conservation practices in
Moldova (Dnester basin)
Identification of vulnerable areas due to the moisture content in soils
Estimation of best soil processing and landscape management practices of
agricultural lands.
Development of recommendations (hand book) for farmers, sectoral
authorities etc on soil moisture conservation practices