1. Drought Risk Management Scheme:
a decision support system
Activity 5.4
Tamara Tokarczyk
2nd IDMP CEE Workshop
Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

2. The main objective & Partners
• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research
Institute
Tamara Tokarczyk
Wiwiana Szalińska
• Institute of Technology and Life Sciences (ITP)
Leszek Łabędzki
POLAND
• Vilnus University, Department of Hydrology and Climatology (UV)
Gintautas Stankūnavičius,
Edvinas Stonevičius
LITHUANIA
• National Meteorological Administration (NMA)
Elena Mateescu
• National Research and Development Institute for Soil-Agrochemistry
and Environment (ICPA), Bucuresti
Catalin Simota
ROMANIA
Developing an integrated framework that constitute a systematic approach for
building drought management systems for different sectoral context.
The framework contains concept of:
• components of the system required to support decisions
• drought hazard assessment methods
• drought vulnerability analysis with the use of impact assessment
• drought risk visualization and mapping

3. Measures for the
assessment of hazard
and vulnerability to
drought
Methods for the
drought hazard and
risk management
Framework for
Drought Risk
Management Scheme
3.1 Drought Risk Management Scheme for
Odra River
3.2 Recommendations for operational support
system in drought risk management
2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard
mapping with the use of measures for drought
susceptibility assessment.
2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought
assessment based on available GIS information
including population map, type of economic activity
map and protected area to showing the potential
adverse consequences.
1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought
suspectibility (drought hazard) assessment
1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought
vulnerability assessment
Inventory of the
national (Poland,
Romania, Lithuania)
drought contexts.
Concept of drought
hazard and
vulnerability mapping
as a tool for drought
risk management for
selected regional
context.
The generic approach to
drought management that
can be detailed and adjusted
for specific applications.
Requirements for operational
DSS development in the
middle Odra River basin.
OUTPUT MILESTONE
EXPECTED
RESULT
Outputs

4. DONE:
2. Climatic conditions in the context of drought (LT, PL, RO)
3. Drought monitoring and early warning systems (LT, PL, RO)
4. Measures for the assessment of susceptibility to drought
4.1.Drought indicators – meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and others
4.2.Drought monitoring and assessment using Remote Sensing and GIS methods
4.3.ROIMPEL simulation model as instrument for drought assessment
5. End-users and dissemination products
Milestone 1.1.
2. Identification of national sectors vulnerable to drought (LT, PL, RO)
3. Inventory of methodology to characterize drought impact and vulnerability
assessment (LT, PL, RO)
4. Stakeholders on national, regional and local levels and their needs for
information on drought risk (LT, PL, RO)
Milestone 1.2.
1.Objectives for drought risk management
2.Current status of drought risk management in Odra River
2.1. Study area
2.2. Organizational framework for water management in Poland
2.3. Management of water resources to mitigate drought impacts
2.4. Drought risk management plans
2.5. Drought monitoring and prediction
3.Recommendation on development of drought risk management in the Odra River
3.1. The need to improve drought governance
3.2. The need to improve drought risk identification
Milestone 3.1. The report provides the context for
the framework development that
demonstrate the current state and
needs for operational risk
management in the region of
Middle and Upper Odra River
basin.
The report provides the information
on the national context in terms of
drought hazard characteristic and
assessment
The report provides the
information on the
national context of
drought impacts and
sectors vulnerable to
drought
Progress Report

5. •real-time infromation on current conditions
Monitoring network
• parameters that are used to describe drought
Drought indicators
• drought triggers, threshold values indicating
drought onset, duration and frequencyDrought hazard assessment
• warnings and alerts generation,
communication systemsDrought early warning
• long-term analysis for land use, weather,
water, climate variablity and climate changeDrought prediction
• social, economic and environmental
conditions, sectors vulnerable to droughtImpact assessment
• potential loss in connection with drought,
which could occur to a particular locationRisk assessment
• institutional commitment and responsabilities
Service delivery
System
for
drought
risk
manage-
ment
DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT SCHEME
1.1.
1.1.
2.1.
1.1.
1.1.
1.2.
2.2.
1.2.
Milestone
no
Final output

6. Definitions
Hazard physical conditions that has the potential for causing damage to life,
health, property or environment
Vulnerability a condition resulting from social, economic, and environmental factors or
processes, which increases the susceptibility of a system to the impact of a
hazard (drought)
Risk a combination of the likelihood of occurrence (HAZARD) and the
magnitude of the unwanted consequences (VULNERABILITY)
Ongoing work

7. Jianping Yan, 2010
System Vulnerability is the property of an
anthropogenic system that can be defined by the
susceptibility, coping capacity, and resilience of the
system.
Element Vulnerability refers to the degree of potential
physical damage to the target elements at risk, such as
particular crop spiece, water users, forrest biota in
response to a hazard event of a given intensity.
Drought risk assessment
Ongoing work
Sector- based risk assessment

8. The work is dedicated to a risk
assessment of recognized key
sectors vulnerable to drought in the
participating countries (LT, PL RO):
sector hazard assessment category of impact
Agriculture
(Act. 5.1)
SPI, HTC), PET, PDSI, CWB, EDI, Aridity
Index, NDWI, fAPAR, NDVI, CWSI, LAI
Economic (losses in crops, decline
in relevant food production)
Water
resources
SRI, Flow Index (from FDC), NDWI Social (public safety, health,
conflicts between water users,
reduced quality of life)
Forestry
(Act. 5.2)
Forest fire risk index, temperature,
precipitation, relative humidity, moisture
of forest litter
Environmental (increased
incidence of fires, damage to animal
and plant species)
Drought hazard assessment is based
upon the indicices applicable to the
participating countries (LT, PL RO)
• Selection of drought hazard indicies (region/sector)
• Identification of drought hazard assessment methods,
• Identification of impact and vulnerability estimation methods,
• Integration input information for the need of risk analysis.
Drought hazard and vulnerability assessment
Ongoing work

9. 1. DROUGHT FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
The purpose of the frequency analysis is to determine the frequency and
severity of droughts and graphically represent the spatial distribution of drought
occurrences.
The SPI method is designed to be flexible in terms of drought duration specified by users.
Short time scales (e.g., 3 months) may be important for agricultural practices while long time
scales (e.g., one year or longer) may be vital for water supply management interests.
Maps representing spatial distribution of the probabilty of
occurence and duration drought of different severity .
The resultant frequency data are intended for integration with the
results of the drought vulnerability analysis to identify areas subject to drought risk.
(1) Drought frequency analysis (HAZARD),
(2) Assessment of drought impact on a given area (EXPOSURE),
(3) Vulnerability analysis (ELEMENT VULNERABILITY)
(4) Integration of these components to a form risk maps (RISK)
Risk mapping
Ongoing work

10. 2. GIS-BASED ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT IMPACT AREAS
Data sources:
The meteorological conditions: precipitation, temperature, wind, slope
exposure, relative humidity, cloud cover, and evaporation and transpiration
data.
The environmental conditions: geology, slope, soil types, vegetation
types and coverage, water resources.
The land use and management data: crop information and farming
practices for crop and livestock, livestock population inventories.
The infrastructure conditions: population settlements and communities,
hotels and tourist zones, dams and storage reservoirs, desalinization and
water treatment plants, waste water treatment facilities, irrigation and
water distribution systems, water catchment systems.
- Identifying & categorizing elements at risk: crop type; forest biota; population, etc.
- Inventory mapping:
– Resolution
and seasonality
– Data format
– Analysis unit
Ongoing work
Risk mapping

11. Developing Vulnerability Functions
for Drought Risk Assessment
- Loss-Intensity Matrix for Drought
- Vulnerability Functions
3. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS Vulnerability functions are created to calculate
potential damage or loss to a given element at
risk against a specified event intensity.
drought severity (Intensity&duration)
lossratio
Ongoing work
Risk mapping
Jianping Yan, 2010
based onTsakiris et al., 2010

12. water resources sector:
1) water supply locations;
2) population demographic information;
3) drought hazard map based on SRI
Exmaples of the combination of GIS leyers
regarding the risk assessment for:
agricutural sector:
1) land use;
2) crop type;
3) population demographic information;
4) drought hazard map based on SPI
The risk assessment involves both GIS
data-gathering and data creation so
as to compile asset layers and
analytical layers for a visual
presentation of risk.
GIS offers the ability to integrate many different
types of data through the use of common
geography. Each feature is linked to a position on
the graphical image of a map. Layers of data are
organized to be studied and to perform statistical
or spatial analysis.
GISs allow users to analyze geographic
phenomena within areas of interest, thus
leading to a better understanding of
relationships and to provide a helpful tool
in decision-making.
The combination and content of leyers depends on
purpose. This analysis include methods to overlay,
query, highlight, and select layers that are
determined as being critical to the examination of
the potential vulnerability of the drought impact
sectors. The analysis consisted of deriving new maps
of the likely occurrence or magnitude of a particular
phenomenon based on the established
relationship between the existing maps layers.
Ongoing work
Risk mapping
4. INTEGRATION TO FORM OF RISK MAPS

13. 4. INTEGRATION OF THESE COMPONENTS TO FORM OF RISK MAPS
The integrated risk can be represented by a two-dimensional matrix that
classifies risks into three categories (low, moderate, high) based on the combined
effects of their likelihood (HAZARD) and consequence (VULNERABILITY).
Ongoing work
Risk mapping

14. Where we search for expertise?
• Partner countries?
• IDMP CEE countries?
• Other projects?
• Literature?
• Develop new ones?

15. Thanks for your attention !