1. Activity title: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring
and forecasting: the case of Ukraine and Moldova
Activity number 5.6
Activity Leader: Tatiana Adamenko - Ukraine
Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova
2nd IDMP CEE Workshop
Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

2. Partners & Outputs
• Who are partners in this activity:
MD: Soil Research Institute + CWP-Moldova
UA: UkrHydroMetCentr, CWP-UA, State Agency of WR
Expected main final output(s) of your activity?
• A review of agro-climate zoning (map) UA + joint MD-UA Dniester RBA based on analysis of Cl CH
trends and soils’ water holding capacities: analysis of long-term uninterrupted monitoring data -UA
+ 2 case-studies of soil moisture content in agro lands & reference areas -MD.
• development of monitoring system by introduction of EU indexes/approaches.
• Updating forecast models for possible crop yield losses due to Ds for 3 main
crops
• Stakeholders awareness raising on new zoning and best practices in agro-
droghts management

3. • What has been done (October 2013 – April 2014)?
Collection, analysis of long-term uninterrupted data on water holding
capacities of different type of soils of 136 HM stations in agro-active
territories UA - Dniester RA ( UA). Recommendations for Farmers.
• In Moldova the research of 2 case areas in Dniester river basin and
data, collected by 7 hydromet stations. Collected materials for
recommendations for farmers on moisture conservation.
• At what stage of the final output(s) are you now?
Preparing for mapping of new zoning MD-UA.
• What were the main problems? How did you solve them?
Lack of UA–MD coordination and different approaches for
pilots.
• Have there been any changes from the original plan? Why?
No
Progress Report

4. the Dniester River Basin
Striy meteorological station - Lvovskaya oblast
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
Normal 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Soilmoisture,mm
A trend on soil moisture reduction in May by 10-20% during 1991-2010
was shown based on uninterrupted observation data analysis of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture
data for period 1961-2010. This can be explained by decreasing of average precipitation on 4-
10% compare with norm and increasing temperature above normal on 0,6-0,8 º C
during this period. Sampling Data are May 20 and June 20 as critical for grain crops formation.

5. -200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
abnormalyearlyprecipitation,mm
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
soilmoisture,mm
Abnormal precipitation and soil moisture data of continuous
observations in Ukraine.
1961 -2010

7. • What are the plans for April – October 2014?
• Map of new zoning/ drought risks areas, EU indexes using,
Modelling for forecast upgrading UA, good practices on soil W
resilience introduction -MD
• What kind of challenges/problems do you expect? New
forecast model development needs more resources –UA. Minimize
task
Existed data allow preparing a model for Moldova, but existed
monitoring system on moisture needs further development in – MD?
• Will there by any change from the original plan? Why?
Plans