SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 33
Vision 2050: Von der physischen Mobilität zur virtuellen Präsenz.
Vision 2050: From physical mobility to virtual presence.
Hermann Hartenthaler, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories, Berlin
Hannover, 23. April 2009; Hannover, tech transfer – Gateway2Innovation, Forum
                                                                                Erleben, was verbindet.
Overview.



   Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.


   Vision 2050.


   Vision 2010/2020.


                   Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   2
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.




                  Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   3
Telekom Laboratories –
industrial research rocks.




                             Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   4
The Telekom Laboratories projects orient themselves to
Deutsche Telekom’s R&D strategy (5i).

Fields of innovation (5i)   ICT spectrum Technology trends                                    Guidelines for innovation
                                            Smart individualization
                                            Multimodal interfaces
Intuitive Usability                         Sensor technology                                Simplify your life.

                                            Transaction control (AAA, identity management)
Integrated Service                          Multimedia / content based
                                                                                              Always best served.
Components                                  Intelligent, convergent services


                                            Intelligent wireless broadband networks
                                            Network-centric service control
Intelligent Access                          Seamless communication                           Always best connected.
                                            Home networks and home networking
                                            Clean Slate Internet Design
                                            Process IT                                       High quality at
Infrastructure
                                                                                              reasonable cost.
                                            Trustworthy areas (devices, Internet, etc.,)
                                            Network-based protection mechanisms
Inherent Security                                                                             Trusted IP networks.




                                  Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                                      5
The organizational structure offers an ideal environment for
cooperation between industry and research in partnership.


                  Strategic Research
                                                                        Innovation Development
           (professorships at the TU Berlin)




                Quality and Security in Interaction                Integrated
  Intelligent                                         Intuitive               Intelligent     Infra-    Inherent
                 Usability   Telecom-    Design &                    Service
   Networks                                           Usability                 Access      structure   Security
                   Lab      munications    Media                  Components




                 Functional groups
                                                         User Driven Innovation       Innovation Methods & Tools
           Networking / Security / Usability




                                           Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                           6
The people are the primary focus of our research
and development work.




                             User Driven Innovation


  Strategic   Quality /                                                 Innovation
                                                             User
  Research    Usability                                                Development
                                                          Experience
 Laboratory                                                             Laboratory


                                Design Research




                          Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                              7
Open Innovation: exchange of internal and external R&D services
allows for a more efficient access to new and existing markets.



            Company boundaries
                                                              New
                                                             market


       Research                                                       Existing market
       projects




              Research                    Development

                                                                                Source: Chesbrough (2003)




                             Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                             8
Telekom Laboratories cooperate according to the
Open Innovation model with selected research institutes.

                         Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-
                         Universität Bonn                                  Norwegian University of Science
                                                                           and Technology
                         Imperial College London
                                                                           Technische Universität Berlin
Columbia University               École Nationale
                                  d’Ingénieurs de Brest                    Fraunhofer-Institut für
                                                                           Nachrichtentechnik Heinrich-
Boston University                                                          Hertz-Institut
                                  Univeridad Carlos III de
University of Illinois            Madrid
                                                                           Fraunhofer-Institut für Offene
                                  Technische Universität                   Kommunikationssysteme
                                  Darmstadt
                                                                           Ben-Gurion University
Stanford University      Deutsches Forschungszentrum
                         für Künstliche Intelligenz                        Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität
                                                                           München
                         École Polytechnique Fédérale
                         de Lausanne                                       Technische Universität München

                         Universität St. Gallen




                                           Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                     9
Technology Radar:
Early detection of technological trends and changes.




                                            Market Presence
                                     Market-Ready
                               Product Concept
                     Applied Research                     Attention needed:
              Basic Research                                  High   Medium   Low




                                      Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                 10
Researchers and developers from around the world form
an interdisciplinary team.

                                                     A good 350 scientists and Telekom experts
                                                     Average age of around 36 years
                                                     Employees from more than 50 countries


                                  ... of which approx. 70 are research scientists with mainly
                                   short-term contracts, plus 80 thesis students, interns,
                                   guest researchers, etc.


   Several sites in Berlin and Darmstadt
   International team with 25 members at the Ben-Gurion
    University in Israel focusing on security and multimedia


                                            Project office with 8 staff members in Silicon Valley, USA,
                                             concerned with Clean Slate Internet Design, New Media,
                                             Services and Mobile Platforms



                                             Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                 11
The scientific work is internationally renowned.


             Inventions and Patents                                                 Publications

    Invention applications                                       Conference proceedings              299
    Patent applications                                          Journals                              3
                                                                                                      30
                                                                 Books / chapters
                               51
                                    48                           Other                        215     36

                                                                                               14
                                          36                                                   20
                 33                            32                                   138        23
                                                                                     5
                                                                                6
                                                                                     23              230
                          17
                                                                   30                         158
                                                                                    104
                                                                    3
   2    2                                                    1              4
                                                                   22
 2004/2005        2006         2007        2008                  2005               2006      2007   2008



                                         Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                      12
A number of awards show the
international significance.

   Dr. T. Alpcan: Robert T. Chien Memorial Award and Ross J. Martin Award, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
   H. Hartenthaler: DALI Award 2007 (together with elka and ivistar)
   Dr. S. Krishnamurthy: Best Paper Award “Ubiquitous Intelligence and Computing (UIC-2007)”, Hong Kong
   Prof. S. Möller: DFG Heisenberg scholarship
   Prof. G. Joost: 100 Köpfe von morgen
   Dr. F. Metze: Voice Award for Speech-based classification
   Place in the Land of Ideas in 2006, 2007 and 2008
   IBC AWARD: Digital Cinema: the digital workflow in the digital
   B. Freese: Best Paper Award “Multi Access Modular Services approach (MAMS), (ICIN2007)”
   Dr. A. Raake: ITG award 2007 for Speech Quality of VoIP - Assessment and Prediction
   Dr. F. Steinhoff: 2nd place at the Wissenschaftspreis 2008 of the Deutsche Marketing-Verband
   J. Heuer: Multi-Protocol IDDY Award 2008
   J. Stegmann: Anniversary VOICE Award 2008
   Dr. H. Arnold: European Young Leaders Forum
   Prof. G. Joost: Berlin Scientific Award of the Governing Mayor of Berlin 2008
   Dr. Z. Ren: Convergators’ Awards 2009 (in the Mobile Content and audience prize categories)




                                              Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                              13
The success of Telekom Laboratories is measured at the transfer
to the Group’s business areas or to spin-offs.




                       Deutsche Telekom Laboratories              14
Colleagues perform research and development in different
locations.




                       Deutsche Telekom Laboratories       15
Vision 2050.




               Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   16
As the future will demonstrate,
companies should be prepared.

               “People tend to overestimate what can be accomplished in the short run,
               but to underestimate what can be accomplished in the long run.”
               Arthur Charles Clarke

                                            “The past is a foreign country. They
                                            do things differently there.”
                                            Leslie Poles Hartley

      “Technology is not kind. It does not wait. It does not say please. It slams into
      existing systems. Often destroying them, while creating new ones.”
      Joseph Alois Schumpeter

                                                                       “The future is already here –
                                                                       it is just not evenly
                                                                       distributed yet.”
                                                                       William Gibson




                                       Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                   17
The laws of economics and technological conditions determine
exponential growth in our industry.

                                Moore’s Law                                      Gilder’s Law                             Metcalfe’s Law

                                                      Transistor




                                                                                                       Value of network
                                1 US$




                                                                     Bandwidth
                   77,000Mio.
                                                          count
Transistor count




                    2,500Mio.


                      75Mio.                        Average
                                                       price
                       2,300                               -9
                                                         10 US$
                                                                                     Computer power                            Number of users
                                1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

                                                                                                              The value of a
                      Transistors placed on an
                                                                      Bandwidth grows at least        telecommunications network
                   integrated circuit are doubling
                                                                       three times faster than            is proportional to the
                    every 24 months while prices
                                                                          computer power.             square of the number of users
                             are falling.
                                                                                                            of the system (n²).



                                                                   Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                   10/19/2010    18
Rate of change: technology diffusion is accelerating.

                            Adoption curves of electronic devices
                4
                                          Handheld               Cell Phone
                                           (1996)                  (1984)

                                                                                               Camcorder
                3                                                                                (1984)
million units




                                           PC
                2                        (1978)
                                                                                   VCRs
                                                                                  (1974)


                1
                                                                              Color TV
                                                                               (1955)

                0
                    0   1   2         3          4           5                6            7
                                   Years from inception


                                 Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                             19
A projection of trends into the future shows changes in society and
in technological indicators.


                                                                    Last domains of analogue
                           Trend to Digitalization                  media are falling
                                                                    (radio, newspapers, …).




Personalization ends the
short era of mass media.             Trend to Individualization




                                                                    Technology decouples
                           Trend to new Society                     community from
                                                                    proximity.




                                    Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                              20
From physical mobility to virtual presence.


 Scenario.
  Ein Tag im Leben des Architekten Hans Erimitamo
      Videokonferenz-Besprechung mit der Kollegin auf
        der Baustelle in Aukland; Manipulation eines
        holografischen Gebäude-Modells in 3D durch
        Gesten
      gemeinsames Frühstück mit der Tochter, die in
        Südafrika studiert; holografische Präsenz des
        Vaters am Frühstückstisch; virtuelles Shopping-
        Terminal; Bezahlung bei T-Pay durch eine Geste;
        Abfrage von Produktinformationen zu einer
        Weinflasche über eine Geste
      reales und virtuelles Surfen von Vater und Tochter
      abschließende Klärung von architektonischen
        Problemen in einer Videokonferenz
      holografischer Besuchs des Vaters bei der Tochter




                                        Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   21
From physical mobility to virtual presence.


 Communication Messages.
 Digitalisierung und Virtualisierung
     Kommunikation substituiert physische Mobilität
     Die Welt kommt nach Hause; man selbst ist in der Welt virtuell, jederzeit und überall präsent
     Kommunikations- und Informationstechnologie holen die Welt nach Hause
     Physische Mobilität benötigt kostbare Ressourcen – Nachhaltigkeit durch ITK
     Physische Mobilität verliert an Bedeutung und ist in 2050 ein Luxus
     Daten sind mobil, nicht der Mensch
 Connected Life and Work
     Privatleben und Arbeitsleben verschmelzen
     Enspannung und Unterhaltung sind natürliche Bestandteile des Tagesablaufs
     Entfernung spielt für den Zusammenhalt in Familie und Arbeitsleben keine wesentliche Rolle mehr




                                       Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                    22
From physical mobility to virtual presence.


 Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 1 von 2).
  Soziale Kontakte im Privat- und Berufsleben sind ein menschliches Grundbedürfnis
  Die privaten und beruflichen Kontakte werden zunehmend global
  Ressourcen wie Erdöl und Erdgas sind begrenzt und werden bis 2050 knapp
  Physische Transporte kosten viel Energie und belasten die Umwelt
  Telepräsenz kann viele physische Präsenzbesprechungen ersetzen
  CO2-Emissionen könnten drastisch reduziert werden
      bundesweit 10% weniger Personenverkehr spart 18 Millionen Tonnen CO2
  Dematerialisierung oder Virtualisierung ist einzentraler Beitrag der Telekommunikationsindustrie zu einer
   nachhaltigen Gesellschaft




                                         Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                         23
From physical mobility to virtual presence.


 Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 2 von 2).
 Die Welt kommt nach Hause: tausende von Radioprogrammen, hunderte von Fernsehprogrammen
 Soziale Netzwerke über facebook, StudiVZ, twitter, XING, etc. ergänzen bereits heute die physische soziale
  Präsenz
 Arbeiten an jedem Ort, zu jeder Zeit und in flexiblen Strukturen
 Intuitive Bedienbarkeit und „natürliche“ Benutzungsschnittstellen wie Gesten- und Spracherkennung sind
  verfügbar
 Erkennen von Gedankenmustern durch technische Geräte ist ansatzweise möglich
 Stimmbanderregungsmuster können in Sprache verwandelt werden, auch ohne dass laut gesprochen wird
 Holografische Projektionen ergänzen Telepräsenzsysteme
 3D-Fernsehen ist in der Vorbereitung
 Jederzeitiger Zugriff an jedem Ort auf alle Informationen über das Internet ist in Vorbereitung
      Breitbandinfrastruktur und LTE als UMTS-Nachfolger
      Internet etabliert sich als das Nervensystem der Welt von morgen




                                        Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                          24
Vision 2010/2020.




                    Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   25
UICC and NFC: a convergence solution in various living scenarios
based on one device for many different applications.




                                                           UICC
                                                                           Mobile Banking
                  Home/Entertainment
                                                                                                     Mobile Payment



    Access



                                                                                                     Mobile Content

                                                            www
   Enterprise/Office

                                                                                  Mobile Ticketing
                         Digital Identity       Fixed Mobile Convergence




                                            Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                             26
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   27
IPTV evolution: IP based TV evolution could emerge from
“multi channel IPTV” to next generation’s “New TV”.

                          IPTV Evolution                                               Remarks


   Classic IPTV               TV 2.0                           New TV
                                                                             Service elements
                                                                                  User driven content
                                                                                  Personalization
                                  Interaction

                                                                                  Targeting
                                                                                  Interactive services
                                                                                  On demand services
                                                                                  Multi channels


                                                IPTV provider
       Program provider




                                                  Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                          28
Group communications: enabling more efficient and effective
communications within social groups – starting with families.



                                                                         Mobile
          Concentrating on the                                       community services
           essentials for group
               communication

                                          Location functionalities for
                                            group communication




                              Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                               29
Collaboration in three dimensions:
Mobile, flexible and non-hierarchical work environment.


                         Dimensions of Future Work                                      Properties

                                           mobile
                                                                              Work is independent of time
                                                     everywhere, at any        and location
                                                     time, flexible
                                     location
                                                                              Flexible organizations

fixed location, fixed                                                         Teamwork is cross-functional
time, hierarchical                                  time                       and non hierarchical
                                                               flexible
                             structure                                        Information is pervasively
                                                                               available (everywhere and at
                        non hierarchical                                       any time)




                                           Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                      30
Fusing reality and virtuality in the work environment: More effi-
ciency through integrated services and innovative infrastructure.

                                                                       Communication
   Information Technology
                                                                        Technology




                   Innovative          Workplace-               Efficient
                     services         Infrastructure            operation




                                                                        Building and
     Media Technology
                                                                     Security Technology



                                Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                              31
Sustainability via a powerful infrastructure.


            Workplace at Home                            TelePresence and Video Conferencing




       Work wherever you want !                    Save time and costs !




                                Deutsche Telekom Laboratories                                  32
Thank You!

Welcome at booth E22!




    Deutsche Telekom Laboratories   33

More Related Content

What's hot

Contextualised user profiling in networked media environments
Contextualised user profiling in networked media environmentsContextualised user profiling in networked media environments
Contextualised user profiling in networked media environmentsLinkedTV
 
Explicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrieval
Explicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrievalExplicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrieval
Explicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrievalNitish Aggarwal
 
tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)
tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)
tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)MaulidatulRizky
 
Towards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICT
Towards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICTTowards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICT
Towards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICTKarlos Svoboda
 
Managing Training Concepts in Multicultural Business Environments
Managing Training Concepts in Multicultural Business EnvironmentsManaging Training Concepts in Multicultural Business Environments
Managing Training Concepts in Multicultural Business EnvironmentseLearning Papers
 
Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012
Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012
Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012imeciiviblog
 

What's hot (7)

Contextualised user profiling in networked media environments
Contextualised user profiling in networked media environmentsContextualised user profiling in networked media environments
Contextualised user profiling in networked media environments
 
Maya
MayaMaya
Maya
 
Explicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrieval
Explicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrievalExplicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrieval
Explicit vs. latent concept models for cross language information retrieval
 
tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)
tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)
tugas Teknik penulisan karya ilmiah (paper)
 
Towards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICT
Towards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICTTowards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICT
Towards Responsible Research and Innovation in ICT
 
Managing Training Concepts in Multicultural Business Environments
Managing Training Concepts in Multicultural Business EnvironmentsManaging Training Concepts in Multicultural Business Environments
Managing Training Concepts in Multicultural Business Environments
 
Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012
Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012
Presentatie smart blister gg platform sff 20 11-2012
 

Viewers also liked

Digital Retail Vision
Digital Retail VisionDigital Retail Vision
Digital Retail VisionKai Platschke
 
Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt
Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt
Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt HMC Market Consulting
 
Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)
Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)
Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)Joerg Ruwe
 
Unbare Zahlung im Einzelhandel
Unbare Zahlung im EinzelhandelUnbare Zahlung im Einzelhandel
Unbare Zahlung im EinzelhandelMichael Völkl
 
Massimo Dutti Digital Marketing Strategy
Massimo Dutti Digital Marketing StrategyMassimo Dutti Digital Marketing Strategy
Massimo Dutti Digital Marketing StrategySona Martirosian
 
Future Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändert
Future Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändertFuture Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändert
Future Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändertIngo Stoll
 
AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN
AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN
AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN business4brands consulting GmbH
 
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHEN
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHENCUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHEN
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHENbusiness4brands consulting GmbH
 
Es geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des Einzelhandels
Es geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des EinzelhandelsEs geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des Einzelhandels
Es geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des Einzelhandelsbusiness4brands consulting GmbH
 
Bank: Trends, Tech and Future
Bank: Trends, Tech and FutureBank: Trends, Tech and Future
Bank: Trends, Tech and FutureIvano Digital
 

Viewers also liked (12)

Digital Retail Vision
Digital Retail VisionDigital Retail Vision
Digital Retail Vision
 
Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt
Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt
Kommunikation 2.0 für den Einzelhandel - jetzt
 
Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)
Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)
Der Einzelhandel macht mobil(e)
 
Unbare Zahlung im Einzelhandel
Unbare Zahlung im EinzelhandelUnbare Zahlung im Einzelhandel
Unbare Zahlung im Einzelhandel
 
Massimo Dutti Digital Marketing Strategy
Massimo Dutti Digital Marketing StrategyMassimo Dutti Digital Marketing Strategy
Massimo Dutti Digital Marketing Strategy
 
Future Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändert
Future Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändertFuture Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändert
Future Retail - Wie die digitale Revolution den Handel verändert
 
Social Media im Einzelhandel
Social Media im EinzelhandelSocial Media im Einzelhandel
Social Media im Einzelhandel
 
AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN
AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN
AUF GOLIATH’S RÜCKEN MARKEN UND RETAILER IM ZEITALTER DIGITALER PLATTFORMEN
 
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHEN
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHENCUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHEN
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT X.0 – ANSATZ UND VORGEHEN
 
Es geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des Einzelhandels
Es geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des EinzelhandelsEs geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des Einzelhandels
Es geht um alles: Die Rundum-Digitalisierung des Einzelhandels
 
Bank: Trends, Tech and Future
Bank: Trends, Tech and FutureBank: Trends, Tech and Future
Bank: Trends, Tech and Future
 
DIE MULTICHANNELFALLE
DIE MULTICHANNELFALLEDIE MULTICHANNELFALLE
DIE MULTICHANNELFALLE
 

Similar to Vision 2050

Mainflux Labs - References (1).pdf
Mainflux Labs - References (1).pdfMainflux Labs - References (1).pdf
Mainflux Labs - References (1).pdfWlamir Molinari
 
2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]
2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]
2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]imec.archive
 
2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]
2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]
2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]imec.archive
 
Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2
Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2
Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2CSP Scarl
 
I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2
I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2
I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2imec.archive
 
SMARCOS Newsletter 1st Issue
SMARCOS Newsletter 1st IssueSMARCOS Newsletter 1st Issue
SMARCOS Newsletter 1st IssueSmarcos Eu
 
02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...
02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...
02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...ClusterExcellence
 
Wouter Joossen - Security
Wouter Joossen - SecurityWouter Joossen - Security
Wouter Joossen - Securityimec.archive
 
2013 04-09-webinos at-droidcon
2013 04-09-webinos at-droidcon2013 04-09-webinos at-droidcon
2013 04-09-webinos at-droidconDroidcon Berlin
 
Internet of things-IoT.pptx
Internet of things-IoT.pptxInternet of things-IoT.pptx
Internet of things-IoT.pptxMukulislam1
 
Smarter Planet & Innovation
Smarter Planet & InnovationSmarter Planet & Innovation
Smarter Planet & InnovationKim Escherich
 
AIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdf
AIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdfAIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdf
AIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdfThierry Lestable
 
Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...
Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...
Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...ENoLL Conference 2010
 

Similar to Vision 2050 (20)

Palomar5 und T-Labs
Palomar5 und T-LabsPalomar5 und T-Labs
Palomar5 und T-Labs
 
Mainflux Labs - References (1).pdf
Mainflux Labs - References (1).pdfMainflux Labs - References (1).pdf
Mainflux Labs - References (1).pdf
 
Booosting marktplts nw materialen 22mei12_pramod_agrawal ecolabs
Booosting marktplts nw materialen 22mei12_pramod_agrawal ecolabsBooosting marktplts nw materialen 22mei12_pramod_agrawal ecolabs
Booosting marktplts nw materialen 22mei12_pramod_agrawal ecolabs
 
2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]
2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]
2008 brokerage 02 test beds and living labs [compatibility mode]
 
2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]
2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]
2008 Brokerage 02 Test Beds And Living Labs [Compatibility Mode]
 
Medialab
MedialabMedialab
Medialab
 
3TU.NIRICT
3TU.NIRICT3TU.NIRICT
3TU.NIRICT
 
Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2
Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2
Boogames kickoff-csp-partner-profile v2
 
I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2
I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2
I Lab2 I Lab Vision Ws 3 Oct 06 V2
 
SMARCOS Newsletter 1st Issue
SMARCOS Newsletter 1st IssueSMARCOS Newsletter 1st Issue
SMARCOS Newsletter 1st Issue
 
02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...
02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...
02 dsp valley p.simkens_internationalization and smart specialization_day 3_s...
 
Profile tulasi digital_health
Profile tulasi digital_healthProfile tulasi digital_health
Profile tulasi digital_health
 
Nancy Pascall digital_trends_11
Nancy Pascall digital_trends_11Nancy Pascall digital_trends_11
Nancy Pascall digital_trends_11
 
Wouter Joossen - Security
Wouter Joossen - SecurityWouter Joossen - Security
Wouter Joossen - Security
 
Jacques Bus F I I R L Presentation J B
Jacques  Bus  F I  I R L  Presentation  J BJacques  Bus  F I  I R L  Presentation  J B
Jacques Bus F I I R L Presentation J B
 
2013 04-09-webinos at-droidcon
2013 04-09-webinos at-droidcon2013 04-09-webinos at-droidcon
2013 04-09-webinos at-droidcon
 
Internet of things-IoT.pptx
Internet of things-IoT.pptxInternet of things-IoT.pptx
Internet of things-IoT.pptx
 
Smarter Planet & Innovation
Smarter Planet & InnovationSmarter Planet & Innovation
Smarter Planet & Innovation
 
AIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdf
AIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdfAIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdf
AIDRC_Generative_AI_TL_v5.pdf
 
Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...
Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...
Piet Demeester - Towards Future Internet: what can it mean for Living Labs an...
 

Vision 2050

  • 1. Vision 2050: Von der physischen Mobilität zur virtuellen Präsenz. Vision 2050: From physical mobility to virtual presence. Hermann Hartenthaler, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories, Berlin Hannover, 23. April 2009; Hannover, tech transfer – Gateway2Innovation, Forum Erleben, was verbindet.
  • 2. Overview. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories. Vision 2050. Vision 2010/2020. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 2
  • 3. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 3
  • 4. Telekom Laboratories – industrial research rocks. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 4
  • 5. The Telekom Laboratories projects orient themselves to Deutsche Telekom’s R&D strategy (5i). Fields of innovation (5i) ICT spectrum Technology trends Guidelines for innovation  Smart individualization  Multimodal interfaces Intuitive Usability  Sensor technology Simplify your life.  Transaction control (AAA, identity management) Integrated Service  Multimedia / content based Always best served. Components  Intelligent, convergent services  Intelligent wireless broadband networks  Network-centric service control Intelligent Access  Seamless communication Always best connected.  Home networks and home networking  Clean Slate Internet Design  Process IT High quality at Infrastructure reasonable cost.  Trustworthy areas (devices, Internet, etc.,)  Network-based protection mechanisms Inherent Security Trusted IP networks. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 5
  • 6. The organizational structure offers an ideal environment for cooperation between industry and research in partnership. Strategic Research Innovation Development (professorships at the TU Berlin) Quality and Security in Interaction Integrated Intelligent Intuitive Intelligent Infra- Inherent Usability Telecom- Design & Service Networks Usability Access structure Security Lab munications Media Components Functional groups User Driven Innovation Innovation Methods & Tools Networking / Security / Usability Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 6
  • 7. The people are the primary focus of our research and development work. User Driven Innovation Strategic Quality / Innovation User Research Usability Development Experience Laboratory Laboratory Design Research Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 7
  • 8. Open Innovation: exchange of internal and external R&D services allows for a more efficient access to new and existing markets. Company boundaries New market Research Existing market projects Research Development Source: Chesbrough (2003) Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 8
  • 9. Telekom Laboratories cooperate according to the Open Innovation model with selected research institutes. Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms- Universität Bonn Norwegian University of Science and Technology Imperial College London Technische Universität Berlin Columbia University École Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Brest Fraunhofer-Institut für Nachrichtentechnik Heinrich- Boston University Hertz-Institut Univeridad Carlos III de University of Illinois Madrid Fraunhofer-Institut für Offene Technische Universität Kommunikationssysteme Darmstadt Ben-Gurion University Stanford University Deutsches Forschungszentrum für Künstliche Intelligenz Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Technische Universität München Universität St. Gallen Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 9
  • 10. Technology Radar: Early detection of technological trends and changes. Market Presence Market-Ready Product Concept Applied Research Attention needed: Basic Research High Medium Low Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 10
  • 11. Researchers and developers from around the world form an interdisciplinary team.  A good 350 scientists and Telekom experts  Average age of around 36 years  Employees from more than 50 countries  ... of which approx. 70 are research scientists with mainly short-term contracts, plus 80 thesis students, interns, guest researchers, etc.  Several sites in Berlin and Darmstadt  International team with 25 members at the Ben-Gurion University in Israel focusing on security and multimedia  Project office with 8 staff members in Silicon Valley, USA, concerned with Clean Slate Internet Design, New Media, Services and Mobile Platforms Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 11
  • 12. The scientific work is internationally renowned. Inventions and Patents Publications Invention applications Conference proceedings 299 Patent applications Journals 3 30 Books / chapters 51 48 Other 215 36 14 36 20 33 32 138 23 5 6 23 230 17 30 158 104 3 2 2 1 4 22 2004/2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 12
  • 13. A number of awards show the international significance.  Dr. T. Alpcan: Robert T. Chien Memorial Award and Ross J. Martin Award, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign  H. Hartenthaler: DALI Award 2007 (together with elka and ivistar)  Dr. S. Krishnamurthy: Best Paper Award “Ubiquitous Intelligence and Computing (UIC-2007)”, Hong Kong  Prof. S. Möller: DFG Heisenberg scholarship  Prof. G. Joost: 100 Köpfe von morgen  Dr. F. Metze: Voice Award for Speech-based classification  Place in the Land of Ideas in 2006, 2007 and 2008  IBC AWARD: Digital Cinema: the digital workflow in the digital  B. Freese: Best Paper Award “Multi Access Modular Services approach (MAMS), (ICIN2007)”  Dr. A. Raake: ITG award 2007 for Speech Quality of VoIP - Assessment and Prediction  Dr. F. Steinhoff: 2nd place at the Wissenschaftspreis 2008 of the Deutsche Marketing-Verband  J. Heuer: Multi-Protocol IDDY Award 2008  J. Stegmann: Anniversary VOICE Award 2008  Dr. H. Arnold: European Young Leaders Forum  Prof. G. Joost: Berlin Scientific Award of the Governing Mayor of Berlin 2008  Dr. Z. Ren: Convergators’ Awards 2009 (in the Mobile Content and audience prize categories) Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 13
  • 14. The success of Telekom Laboratories is measured at the transfer to the Group’s business areas or to spin-offs. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 14
  • 15. Colleagues perform research and development in different locations. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 15
  • 16. Vision 2050. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 16
  • 17. As the future will demonstrate, companies should be prepared. “People tend to overestimate what can be accomplished in the short run, but to underestimate what can be accomplished in the long run.” Arthur Charles Clarke “The past is a foreign country. They do things differently there.” Leslie Poles Hartley “Technology is not kind. It does not wait. It does not say please. It slams into existing systems. Often destroying them, while creating new ones.” Joseph Alois Schumpeter “The future is already here – it is just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 17
  • 18. The laws of economics and technological conditions determine exponential growth in our industry. Moore’s Law Gilder’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Transistor Value of network 1 US$ Bandwidth 77,000Mio. count Transistor count 2,500Mio. 75Mio. Average price 2,300 -9 10 US$ Computer power Number of users 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 The value of a Transistors placed on an Bandwidth grows at least telecommunications network integrated circuit are doubling three times faster than is proportional to the every 24 months while prices computer power. square of the number of users are falling. of the system (n²). Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 10/19/2010 18
  • 19. Rate of change: technology diffusion is accelerating. Adoption curves of electronic devices 4 Handheld Cell Phone (1996) (1984) Camcorder 3 (1984) million units PC 2 (1978) VCRs (1974) 1 Color TV (1955) 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Years from inception Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 19
  • 20. A projection of trends into the future shows changes in society and in technological indicators. Last domains of analogue Trend to Digitalization media are falling (radio, newspapers, …). Personalization ends the short era of mass media. Trend to Individualization Technology decouples Trend to new Society community from proximity. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 20
  • 21. From physical mobility to virtual presence. Scenario.  Ein Tag im Leben des Architekten Hans Erimitamo  Videokonferenz-Besprechung mit der Kollegin auf der Baustelle in Aukland; Manipulation eines holografischen Gebäude-Modells in 3D durch Gesten  gemeinsames Frühstück mit der Tochter, die in Südafrika studiert; holografische Präsenz des Vaters am Frühstückstisch; virtuelles Shopping- Terminal; Bezahlung bei T-Pay durch eine Geste; Abfrage von Produktinformationen zu einer Weinflasche über eine Geste  reales und virtuelles Surfen von Vater und Tochter  abschließende Klärung von architektonischen Problemen in einer Videokonferenz  holografischer Besuchs des Vaters bei der Tochter Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 21
  • 22. From physical mobility to virtual presence. Communication Messages.  Digitalisierung und Virtualisierung  Kommunikation substituiert physische Mobilität  Die Welt kommt nach Hause; man selbst ist in der Welt virtuell, jederzeit und überall präsent  Kommunikations- und Informationstechnologie holen die Welt nach Hause  Physische Mobilität benötigt kostbare Ressourcen – Nachhaltigkeit durch ITK  Physische Mobilität verliert an Bedeutung und ist in 2050 ein Luxus  Daten sind mobil, nicht der Mensch  Connected Life and Work  Privatleben und Arbeitsleben verschmelzen  Enspannung und Unterhaltung sind natürliche Bestandteile des Tagesablaufs  Entfernung spielt für den Zusammenhalt in Familie und Arbeitsleben keine wesentliche Rolle mehr Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 22
  • 23. From physical mobility to virtual presence. Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 1 von 2).  Soziale Kontakte im Privat- und Berufsleben sind ein menschliches Grundbedürfnis  Die privaten und beruflichen Kontakte werden zunehmend global  Ressourcen wie Erdöl und Erdgas sind begrenzt und werden bis 2050 knapp  Physische Transporte kosten viel Energie und belasten die Umwelt  Telepräsenz kann viele physische Präsenzbesprechungen ersetzen  CO2-Emissionen könnten drastisch reduziert werden  bundesweit 10% weniger Personenverkehr spart 18 Millionen Tonnen CO2  Dematerialisierung oder Virtualisierung ist einzentraler Beitrag der Telekommunikationsindustrie zu einer nachhaltigen Gesellschaft Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 23
  • 24. From physical mobility to virtual presence. Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 2 von 2).  Die Welt kommt nach Hause: tausende von Radioprogrammen, hunderte von Fernsehprogrammen  Soziale Netzwerke über facebook, StudiVZ, twitter, XING, etc. ergänzen bereits heute die physische soziale Präsenz  Arbeiten an jedem Ort, zu jeder Zeit und in flexiblen Strukturen  Intuitive Bedienbarkeit und „natürliche“ Benutzungsschnittstellen wie Gesten- und Spracherkennung sind verfügbar  Erkennen von Gedankenmustern durch technische Geräte ist ansatzweise möglich  Stimmbanderregungsmuster können in Sprache verwandelt werden, auch ohne dass laut gesprochen wird  Holografische Projektionen ergänzen Telepräsenzsysteme  3D-Fernsehen ist in der Vorbereitung  Jederzeitiger Zugriff an jedem Ort auf alle Informationen über das Internet ist in Vorbereitung  Breitbandinfrastruktur und LTE als UMTS-Nachfolger  Internet etabliert sich als das Nervensystem der Welt von morgen Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 24
  • 25. Vision 2010/2020. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 25
  • 26. UICC and NFC: a convergence solution in various living scenarios based on one device for many different applications. UICC Mobile Banking Home/Entertainment Mobile Payment Access Mobile Content www Enterprise/Office Mobile Ticketing Digital Identity Fixed Mobile Convergence Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 26
  • 28. IPTV evolution: IP based TV evolution could emerge from “multi channel IPTV” to next generation’s “New TV”. IPTV Evolution Remarks Classic IPTV TV 2.0 New TV Service elements User driven content Personalization Interaction Targeting Interactive services On demand services Multi channels IPTV provider Program provider Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 28
  • 29. Group communications: enabling more efficient and effective communications within social groups – starting with families. Mobile Concentrating on the community services essentials for group communication Location functionalities for group communication Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 29
  • 30. Collaboration in three dimensions: Mobile, flexible and non-hierarchical work environment. Dimensions of Future Work Properties mobile  Work is independent of time everywhere, at any and location time, flexible location  Flexible organizations fixed location, fixed  Teamwork is cross-functional time, hierarchical time and non hierarchical flexible structure  Information is pervasively available (everywhere and at non hierarchical any time) Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 30
  • 31. Fusing reality and virtuality in the work environment: More effi- ciency through integrated services and innovative infrastructure. Communication Information Technology Technology Innovative Workplace- Efficient services Infrastructure operation Building and Media Technology Security Technology Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 31
  • 32. Sustainability via a powerful infrastructure. Workplace at Home TelePresence and Video Conferencing Work wherever you want ! Save time and costs ! Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 32
  • 33. Thank You! Welcome at booth E22! Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 33