Dr. Kai-Fu Lee's Talk on Innovation with Chinese characteristics. Videos
(Part 1) https://freeflowapp.com/v/et97qv (Part 2) https://freeflowapp.com/v/5uyqyg
US venture arm, www.ideabulb.vc
China venture arm, www.chuangxin.com
More on Kai-Fu Lee,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kai-Fu_Lee
4. China’s growth to outstrip US by 2025
$300K Chinese “lean start-ups”
CEO/Product
manager
User experience
designer
CTO + 7 more
engineers
China: Largest market + low cost of human capital
5. Mobile: An exponentially growing opportunity in last 4 years
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34
53
74
94
112
139
212
298
384
457
513
564
600
630
4
20
55
245
540
620
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rapid Growth of China’s Mobile Internet Market
Internet users in China
Mobile Internet Users(iOS&Android)
6. The Industry has reached an “internet +” stage
Service industryConsumer goods Industrial products and raw materials
Online
gamesMusic
Mobile
Phones
Maternal &
Child Supplies
Cosmetics
Telecom Prepaid
Home Appliances
Household
Electricals
Clothing
Food
Stationery
Online
Procurement
Other Services
Digitals
Steel
Other Industrial Products
DegreeofInfluence
Duration of Effect
Furniture
Furniture
Jewellery
2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015
New Cars
Finance
Online
Manga
Chemicals
Overseas
Shopping
Travel
Transportation
Plastics
Construction
Machinery
Takeaway Manicure
Fitness
Flash deals Auto Service
Used Cars
Buying/Renting
Houses
Laundry
Medicare
Show Store Chains
Hotel
Information
Reading
Plane Tickets
Movie
KTV
Education
7. An overabundance of VC capital High competition
Kaixin001.com vs. Kaixin.com (Renren)
Baidu vs. SNDA
Tencent vs. Qihoo 360
Jingdong vs. Suning
8. • China’s Internet market is a gladiatorial fight to the death
High competition Robust business model
• High stakes – 1.3 billion users
• Huge VC/PE $
• Lucrative high-growth
• Ineffective regulations
• Hungry entrepreneurs
9. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
– Unique talents
– Demographics and users
– Large workforce
• How to harvest these opportunities
11. • Broad Group: 30-story luxury hotel built in 15 days
11
Strength #2: Speedy & Efficient Execution
12. • The Long March
• The Great Wall of China
12
Strength #3: Tenacity and Focus
1 year
223K people
8,000 miles traveled on foot
166K people died
800 years
3m people
3,000 miles
400k people died
13. Creativity Product & User Passion Strong Leadership
Teamwork Focus Execution & Speed
US China
US vs. China Entrepreneurs
14. Emergence of Serial Entrepreneurs
Chinese Internet over the past ten years, created a large number of outstanding middle-level
managers and serial entrepreneur.
Fissions among entrepreneurs in each start-up. For
example: Tapas alone emerged over 10 CEOs, all were
veteran serial entrepreneurs.
Longfei Li:1988, joined Tapas at age of 22 as PM;
founded iLongyuan at 25, valuation >$100M in just 2 yrs.
Internet entrepreneurs invested by VC,
5 years ago, were from <100 companies.
Now, are from >2000 companies, even including
central and state-owned enterprises.
Young entrepreneurs to start their own companies
becomes a common practice and major trend.
15. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
– Unique talents
– Urban Migration
– Decisive Policy
– Incumbents
• How to harvest these opportunities
15
16. 16
Largest Urban Migration in Human History
Each year, more than 12M people relocate from countryside to the city, strong demand in
transforming surplus low-end labors to high-end workers.
Traditional industry labors into Internet O2O space, provide and deliver service. They
can bear high-intensity work to receive better rewards.
Urbanization rate >1.35%/y
17. Case study: Sufficient labor being fertile ground for innovative O2O in China
Low labor costs and enough independent practitioners are the source of China’s innovative O2O platform.
Helijia:Nail-polish and manicure
Rid of offline stores and intermediaries;
Free professional training, generating new
supplies
Founded in 2014, , thousands of nail
technician, unit sale $20, valuation >$200M;
Horizontal development into home beauty and
salon services.
eDaijia:Your designated driver!
Centralize scattered drivers on eDaijia
platform; P2P mode, sharing economy;
Fouded in 2011, 80k drivers,valuation
>$800M;
Cover 150 cities,daily reservations
over120k
18. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
– Unique talents
– Urban Migration
– Decisive Policy
– Incumbents
• How to harvest these opportunities
18
19. Decisive Policy-Making & Implementation
• Chinese government is vigorous and effective
• New policies bring about new opportunities.
20. 20
End of 2013, began anti monopoly;
In 2014, opened 17 ports to automobile trade;
Oct. 2014, canceled car dealer filing policy;
Jan. 2015, parallel import car policy approved;
New regulations on Automobile brand sales and
management to be introduced.
Import Engine Plants
Domestic Brands
Domestic 4S Shops
Secondary Deals
Consumers
(Scattered, less options)
canceled car
dealer filing
policy
Import Engine Plants
Domestic Brands
Domestic
4S Shops
Comprehensive
Deals
e-Commerce
Consumers
(Scattered, more options)
Import Engine Plants
Domestic
Brands
Domestic
4S Shops
e-Commerce
Consumers
(Centralized, many options)
Port Trader
+
Regulation on
Parallel Import
Automobile
+
Prime Dealers
Up to 2013 2014 2015
Case study: Parallel Import Automobile: Policy changes created hundreds of
billions of dollars market in < 2 years
21. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
– Unique talents
– Urban Migration
– Decisive Policy
– Incumbents
• How to harvest these opportunities
21
22. Inefficient Incumbents
Internet reconstructs the
retail industry
Internet reconstructs the
service industry
National Agent
Regional Agent
Provincial Agent
Municipal Agent
……
Traditional Retailers
Manufacture
Scattered Consumers
……
Headquarter
Regional Office
Provincial Office
Municipal Office
Direct Selling
消费者Centralized Consumers
Manufacture
Online Stores
Traditional Business Channels
Buying new houses in China is troublesome and
always crowded, purchasing second-hand
housing is to face fraud and 2.6% commissions,
renting needs to pay lots of intermediary fees.
An efficient and reliable Real Estate O2O
platform for developers, brokers, buyers and
sellers. Cover 60 cities, in 2014 GMV $30B.
Online Retailers
23. Case study: Internet Finance, Credit data, and other emerging FinTech models
Yu'e Bao:
Monetary Fund of Chinese “Diaosi”
Chinese P2P:
Complementary and Alternative for Banks
Registered users >185M
Capital amount > $90B
Per capita about $500
Flexible draws and can be
used for online shopping
at any time.
Household savings rate is high, while civilian
investment channels are lacking;
Difficult for individuals or small and medium-
sized enterprises to obtain bank loans, neither
P2P nor P2B;
Various types of assets: Mortgages/Auto loans,
supply chain loans, financial leasing, asset backed
securitization, factoring market, and stock
matches endowment …
24. Fewer traditional consumer brands than the US
Example of Brands in US Media - WSJ, NYT, Disney,
Penguin, Random House etc..
25. 25
Case Study: U17
Seamless experience to offline cultural markets.
World’s leading comic platform;
Over 20M users, valuation >$100M;
Over 14,000 Animation writers, 7,000
authorizations of copyright, 3,700
exclusives, 30,000 comics;
7 comics with more than 500M IP
clicks.
Animation: 100,000 bad jokes
>2B Broadcasts
Animated film:100,000 bad
jokes
No.3 Box-office in Chinese AF
history.
Authorized Mobile Game:
Single-day deposit over
$300,000.
Booklet
Fan fiction
Concert
Theatrical
events…
Integrate online contents to create ecosystem.
26. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
• How to harvest these opportunities
– Small Monopoly
– Expansion
– Defensive “moat”
– 創新工場 Advantage
26
28. 28
Find a beachhead monopoly.
A large enough market
• Habit Forming Services
• User Generated Content
• Services (e.g. Two-Side Marketplaces)
• Viral Growth
Underlying
Changes
Value of Internet comes from monopoly, even in small fields. With a good enough
solution (10x better compared to the past), and some competition
barriers , forming your first monopoly is possible.
Lever
1
2
3
Identify “monopoly beachhead” with the lean startup
29. Case study: Yuantiku’s first step = Beachhead Monopoly
Practice tests for high school and
college entrance examinations on
Mobile Internet: Increasing
efficiency through usage on
mobile phones and PCs.
Photo Search for Questions:
homework approach, taking
unsolved problem’s picture, then
searching through application for
solutions.
– 13M registered
student users
– Valuation $360M
30. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
• How to harvest these opportunities
– Small Monopoly
– Expansion
– Defensive “moat”
– 創新工場 Advantage
30
31. 31
Find scalable way to grow
Produce High Quality Content:
Leveraging professionals,
Provide Standardized Service:
Leveraging social resources, rather
than creating resources.
31
StableEruptExplore
Traditional Linear
Growth
Exponential
Growth
Grow to dominate small space
32. 32
Broaden into adjacent markets
Simplify
In Depth
Verticalization
Photoshop’s innovative localization in
China.
Rapid expansion to establish market’s
leading position.
Successful horizontal expansion of
products: Meipai, BeautiCam, Meitu
Phone…
Over 100M registered users.
Company’s valuation at $2B.
Mobile Internetized
Products
Meipai
World’s No.1 short video
maker in smart mobile.
BeautiCam
The most popular selfie
app with millions of users.
Meitu Phone
China’s prevalent female
mobile phone.
33. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
• How to harvest these opportunities
– Small Monopoly
– Expansion
– Defensive “moat”
– 創新工場 Advantage
33
34. 34
Build up Barrier of Entry
In 2010, JD invested heavily on constructing its
own warehouses and logistics system, causing huge deficits;
but after three years, it has become the company’s core
competitiveness.
With a preliminary beachhead monopoly advantage, as well as a speedy,
efficient, and reasonable priced growth method, next huge monopoly will emerge
once invested.
35. Maintain monopoly with “Chinese Premium”
… and the world has a lot to learn from China!
• Chinese online games’ hierarchy of needs.
• Deep understanding of human psychology,
desire, weakness.
• Result = 4x U.S. ARPPU, while 10% of the U.S.
per capita income.
GAMES
PAID
FREE
36. • Monetization via deep understanding of human
psychology/weakness
36
Gaming’s Hierarchy of Needs
Your own digital “blank canvas”, those who worship you as a virtual king
FREE
PAID
Deification
Brotherhood,
Hatred, Pride
Addiction,
Enchantment,
Community
Excitement
Emotional bond via an online “guilds”; invoking deep hatred of “enemies”
An endearing relationship with the game, always top of mind.
Base level satisfaction via graphics and rewards schedule
37. Freemium Example #4: Qihoo 360 (security)
• 360 free features:
– Anti-virus
– “Safe” Browser
– Search portal
• 360 paid features:
– NONE!
• End result?
– A lucrative, locked-in
ecosystem
37
Online marketing
services
Browser game portal
and platform
Search engine
Sales of anti-virus software
63%
26%
10.5%
0.5%
2011 Annual Report
38. • China’s Internet Market
• Unique Chinese Opportunities
• How to harvest these opportunities
– Small Monopoly
– Expansion
– Defensive “moat”
– 創新工場 Advantage
38
Mention the recurring weekly domain group meet-ups and the bi-weekly dealflow and industry research spreadsheets.
Contextual search for deep user need in a narrow area
Build into a “beachhead monopoly”
Explore ways to linearly scale into a larger monopoly (massive expansion: you have one chance to deploy big VC capital)
Defer revenue profit
大投入获取市场领跑者地位:
只有领跑者才能够获取巨大利润
通过免费产品来迅速获取用户,拓展市场
产品迭代 + 横向 / 纵向扩张:循环并滚大
在某个人群横向扩张,然后挖掘新需求,纵向扩张;
找到下⼀波横向扩张的基础,迭代产品
案例(滴滴打车原来时uber模式中国化改良,烧了数亿美金成为市场第一后,三个月内就迅速推出了滴滴专车(uber)和顺风车(lyft)
延迟收入/利润(“中国式免费模式”)
只赚有强需求和真实购买能力用户的钱
非直接性收费,给用户造成“免费”的假象
Sufficient leverage for entire industrial chain:
Consumption: cultivate users habits based on their online consumption behaviors;
Production: user generating contents/services and enough supplies for future unification;
Distribution:users assisting in the dissemination of the contents.
我们要时时刻刻考虑,现在市场上各种各样的事情里面,将来三、四年,两三年,甚至过去一年里面能发生的最大变化是什么?整个市场上,整个大环境最大的变化是什么?将来最大的变数是什么?我们要成为能抓住这个变数的人,我们不是针对现代的市场来做应用、开发,我们是为了一年后、两年后的市场做应用,做开发。
我们要找真正的巨大变化,真正的巨大变化例子与哪里呢?可能这些变化是来自于新技术、新平台的引入,比如说移动互联网、电子商务这些新的东西,给各行各业,各个具体的事情带来的变化。也有可能是来自于消费者和用户行为的巨大变化,比如说我们投资的暴走文化,或者经常说的90后,其实是因为一个消费者的用户行为发生了很大的变化,所以老一代的产品已经不可能了,我可以做一些适合新的消费者的全新产品或者服务。
也有可能是来自于政策的变化,或者是一些垄断环境的变化。
Yaochufa:
During company’s first year, integrated massive low-cost flows online, while swiftly signed weekend flash deal package contracts offline, to enable development at top speed.
Significantly meaningful, if becomes the largest weekend flash deal travel agency ; instead of just the fifth largest traditional travel agency in every city.
创业公司能做的大,能做的好,并不是说自己有多强。实际上一定是利用了很好的杠杆。
每个大的时代实际上都有他最大的一些杠杆,比如说早年我开始做互联网的那些年代,搜索引擎就是当时所有做站长的杠杆。而之后社交网络曾经有一段时间也是很好的杠杆。通讯录关系曾经一段时间也是很好的杠杆,除了这些大的杠杆以外,具体到某个行业都有自己特定的杠杆。
所以创业公司想要做的一件事情,实际上就是要给自己寻找那些好的杠杆,要利用好那些杠杆。
我们要想办法找到浇满汽油的那张纸,并且去点燃它。
知乎在完成过去一年内几十倍暴涨前,他们花了两年时间调整模式。而Airbnb大家知道,最近几年是爆发式的增长,Airbnb创始人花两三年的时间,才找到了一个正确的房屋短租运行的系统和好的方法。所以我们要找到这个点,其实是既要谨慎又要激进。你要花足够的时间,耐得住寂寞。
Explore ways to linearly scale into a larger monopoly (massive expansion: you have one chance to deploy big VC capital)
基础设施:Infrastructure
仓储:Warehouse, construction of Shanghai Jiading 200 acres storage center, completed in 2011.
物流配送:Logistics and Distribution, China domestic pick-up and delivery services, with guaranteed 211 delivery policy.
客服:Customer Service, 7x24, around the clock customer service.
A LARGE MIDDLE CLASS IS DEVELOPING IN CHINA’S URBAN AREAS.
Free take advantage of human weakness $$$
Step 1: Make Qihoo anti-virus security software 100% free
Rising’s software followed the Norton, McAfee model of charging per install. Qihoo made a superior product free, to grab massive amounts of users
Step 2: Direct users to hao.360.cn portal, knowing users don’t uninstall security software from their computers
Majority of revenues now come through 360 portal
Step 3: Build “sticky” ecosystem to further “lock in” users
360 “Safe” Browser to lock in users
360 Search (so.com) as an ads-free experience alternative to Baidu – 15% market share in a short time
Browser plugins and toolbars linking to 360 services
360 now competes not only with startups, but also with established $50b market cap companies (e.g. – Baidu, Tencent)
Make the comparison between traditional VC and IW’s approach to early stage ventures.
Mention verbally (a) new partner, and (b) that IW is – to our knowledge – the only early stage VC in China where >20% of the carried interest belongs to the team (ex-Partners).