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Что-то там про

СТОРИТЕЛЛИНГ
Алексей Каптерев
@kapterev
Презентация:

! "
История

Cлайды

Подача
СТОРИТЕЛЛИНГ
storytelling, «рассказывание историй»

1.Жанр искусства
СТОРИТЕЛЛИНГ
storytelling, «рассказывание историй»

1.Жанр искусства
2.Иллюстрация кейсами
СТОРИТЕЛЛИНГ
storytelling, «рассказывание историй»

1.Жанр искусства
2.Иллюстрация байками
3.Нарративная структура
Кино:

# "
Сценарий

Картинка

Игра
ПЕРЕДАТЧИК

ПРИЕМНИК
ПРИЕМНИК
ПРИЕМНИК
ПРИЕМНИК
ПРИЕМНИК
ПРИЕМНИК
ПРИЕМНИК
Чтобы сделать хорошее
кино, нужны всего 3 вещи:
хороший сценарий,
хороший сценарий и
хороший сценарий.


АЛЬФРЕД ХИЧКОК
Режиссер
Проблема №1:
С КУ ЧН О
?

НУ И ЧТО
Вам же платят деньги!
Инвесторы могут быть потрясающими людьми
с впечатляющим технологическим бэкграундом,
но они к тому же очень занятые люди…
Представьте, что вы произносите речь
передумеренно способными девятиклассниками,
чье внимание можно удерживать только очень
короткое время, и у которых нет ни глубоких
знаний, ни интуиции, чтобы понять вашу идею.


ПИТЕР ТИЛЬ
Основатель PayPal

!

ВНИМАНИЕ
ОЧЕ НЬ
легко

ПОТЕРЯТЬ
и все остальное уже не важно
?
ПОЧЕМУ

С КУ ЧН О
?

МОНОТОННО
После презентации инженера: 


Зачем ты тратишь мою жизнь?!

ДЖЕФФ БЕЗОС
CEO Amazon.com
В ИСТОРИИ ЕСТЬ
ДИ НА М И К А
ИСТОРИЯ ВКЛЮЧАЕТ
ЭМО ЦИИ
ИСТОРИЯ ПРОРЫВАЕТСЯ

ЧЕРЕЗ «КЛАТТЕР»
?

Что такое

«ИСТОРИЯ»
УМЕР МЕЛЬНИК
1-й СЫН
2-й СЫН
3-й СЫН / КОТ

РУКАВИЦЫ
КОРОЛЬ
КРОЛИК
КУРОПАТКА
ОПЕРАЦИЯ «МК»

«ВОРЫ»
ПРИНЦЕССА
ЖНЕЦЫ
КОСЦЫ
ЛЮДОЕД ЗАМОК
ЛЕВ
МЫШЬ
КОРОЛЬ
3-Й СЫН+ПРИНЦЕССА=$

КОТ
iTunes music
store presentation
Steve Jobs, 2003
Innovate
The most striking thing about the 17-inch PowerBook, after the
screen itself, is how brilliantly Apple managed to shrink the size of
the machine built around that big display.
Sure, the PowerBook is an unusually wide 15.4 inches, but itis only
one inch thick. Yet, it feels solid as a rock. Itis just 10.2 inches deep
and weighs only 6.8 pounds.
To get an idea of how sleek those dimensions are, compare the new
PowerBook with another brand-new laptop, Dell’s Latitude D800.
This model also boasts a widescreen display, measuring 15.4 inches
diagonally. But, even though the Dell has a significantly smaller
screen, it looks like a whale next to the 17-inch PowerBook.

— Walt Mossberg, the Wall Street Journal
Safari
Innovate
Music
RIP

MIX

BURN
Acquire

Manage

Listen
Acquire

Manage

Listen
700,000
#1 MP3 player
Can anyone top that?
New iPods
10Gb

15Gb

30Gb

2500 songs

3700 songs

7500 songs

Dock, Case, Remote
299 $

399 $

499 $
Acquire

Manage

Listen
AAC
Acquire

Manage

Listen
Instant gratification
It’s stealing
1 Vast selection
2 Unlimited CD burning
3 Unlimited MP3 players
4 Unlimited computers
5 Free
6 Unreliable downloads
7 Unreliable encoding
8 No previews
9 No album cover art
10 It’s stealing
No legal alternative
PressPlay
RHAPSODY
PressPlay
“You can play your downloaded songs
as long as your membership is active.”
RHAPSODY
“Only subscribers to the All Access subscription
plan at $9.99 per month will get the ability to
burn tracks for an additional fee per track.”
Subscriptions
The wrong path
Buy downloads
Just like LP’s, cassettes & CDs
Own music
Broad set of personal rights
Music Store
Music downloads done right
1 Vast selection
2 Unlimited CD burning
3 Unlimited MP3 players
4 Unlimited computers
5 Free
“The Big Five”
" The music business is a cruel and shallow
money trench, a long plastic hallway
where thieves and pimps run free, and
good men die like dogs.
There's also a negative side."

— Hunter S. Thompson
Landmark
Deals with all Big Five
200,000
Unlimited CD burns
For personal use
Unlimited iPods
Past, present & future models
Play on 3 Macs
We download to one you do the rest
Use in applications
Soundtrack of your life
99¢
Per song
99¢
No subscription fee!
99¢
= 99¢
99¢
1 Vast selection
200,000 songs
2 Unlimited CD burning
3 Unlimited MP3 players
iPod
4 Unlimited computers
Up to 3 Macs
5 Freeper song
99¢
6 Unreliable downloads
7 Unreliable encoding
8 No previews
9 No album cover art
10 It’s stealing
You never find one song – 

you find 50 or 60 songs
The download is slow as paralysis, 

then it just craps out halfway through
After 15 minutes you finally succeed 

in getting a clean version of the song
You spend an hour to get 4 songs 

that cost $3.96 from Apple
You’re working for 

under minimum wage
You’re stealing –
it’s best not to mess with Karma
6 Unreliable downloads
7 Unreliable encoding
8 No previews
9 No album cover art
10 It’s stealing
Pristine encoding
AAC at 128 kbps
Free 30-sec previews
Album cover art
6 Unreliable downloads
Fast, reliable downloads
7 Unreliable encoding
Pristine encoding
8 No previews
Preview for every song
9 No album cover art
Album cover art
10 It’s stealing
Good Karma
1 200,000 songs
2 Unlimited CD burning
3 Unlimited iPods players
4 Up to 3 Macs
5 99¢ per song
Beyond
1-Click
One-click shopping
BUY SONG
One-click downloads
BUY ALBUM
One-click downloads
Search
Browse
Exclusive tracks
U2
Eminem
Bob Dylan
Sting
Sheryl Crow
…
20+ artists
iTunes Music Store
Demo
20 minutes
200,000
Unlimited CD burns
Unlimited iPods
Play on 3 Macs
Pristine encoding
Free 30-sec previews
Album cover art
BUY SONG

One-click downloads
Deliver oceans of bits
fast and reliably

Process millions 

1-Click
of transactions

Integrate with 

popular jukebox

Work seamlessly
with iPods
Only Apple
U.S. Only
To start with…
Today
iTunes.com
Free

software

update
Acquire

Manage

Listen
Buy. Mix. iPod.
Mac only
End of the year
Video & TV ads
15 minutes
AppleMusic.com
UNNOVATIONS
POWERBOOK
SOFTWARE
MUSIC
RIP.MIX.BURN
ITUNES
IPOD
GRAMMY

LISTEN

IPOD
CAN ANYONE TOP THAT?
PRICES

MANAGE

ITUNES
4 THINGS

ACQUIRE

NAPSTER
5 GOOD THINGS
5 BAD THINGS
ITUNES STORE
4+ GOOD THINGS
5 EVEN BETTER THINGS
4 THINGS BETTER STILL

ONLY APPLE
TODAY ETC
Платформы

Цена

XMind

Win, Mac, 

Linux

Freemium

MindMeister

Flash

Freemium
Герой
Цель
Проблема / Слабость
Злодей
Решение
Цена
Мораль
МОРАЛЬ
Если вы сделаете Х
то будет Y
иначе будет Z
The U.S. Army
Afghanistan & Iraq
2009

Dynamic Planning for COIN in Afghanistan
Potential
Fractiousness
of Society

Support for
Insurgency

Neutral
Populace

COIN operations must accomplish three tasks
simultaneously:
• Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral
disposition.
• Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a
supportive disposition.
• Retain supportive individuals.
These operations are conducted in an environment where
tensions and hostilities between groups may destabilize a
society and provide opportunities for insurgents
• This environment may suggest courses of action aimed
at reinforcing or widening seams

Support for HN
Government
• An increase in Coalition funding will influence
economic investment and development.

Coalition
Funding

• A strengthened economy will influence movement
from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups
toward the supportive group.

Economic
Investment

Potential
Fractiousness
of Society

Support for
Insurgency

Neutral
Populace

Economic
Development

Support for HN
Government
Developing and
Restoring Essential
Services

Breakdown of
Essential Services
Essential
Services

Coalition
Funding

Satisfaction with
Essential Services

Economic
Investment

Expectations for
Essential Services

Time to Develop
Essential Services

Potential
Fractiousness
of Society

Support for
Insurgency

• An increase in Coalition funding will significantly
impact the restoration of essential services.
• Improvements in the provision of essential services
will influence movement from the insurgent- and
neutral-minded groups toward the supportive
group.

Neutral
Populace

Economic
Development

Support for HN
Government
Developing and
Restoring Essential
Services

Breakdown of
Essential Services

Expectations for
Essential Services

Essential
Services
Time to Develop
Essential Services

Satisfaction with
Essential Services

Psychological
Operations
Effectiveness
Support for
Insurgency

Governance

Potential
Fractiousness
of Society

• Send a positive, credible message of
success to the populace.
• Provide an environment that enhances
stable employment of the workforce.
• Persuade insurgents and neutrals to
consider becoming supporters.

Economic
Investment

Economic
Development

Neutral
Populace

Support for HN
Government

Available
Workforce

Perceived
Security

A government that is established,
recognized, and that maintains a secure
environment is in a position to

Time to Develop
Governance

Coalition
Funding

External Material
Support
Insurgent Acts
of Violence
Developing and
Restoring Essential
Services

Breakdown of
Essential Services

Psychological
Operations
Effectiveness

Impact of
Illegitimate Actions

Appropriate Mix of
Effort and Use of Force
Individual Competence,
Judgment, and Ability
to Execute
Appropriate
Strategic Emphasis
Insurgent to Force
Density Ratio

significant impacts on

• The
Expectations for restoration of essential services. Economic
Investment
Essential Services
Governance
• The populace’s perception of security.

Essential
Services
Time to Develop
Essential Services

Coalition
An appropriate force mix, and correct operational
Satisfaction with
Funding
Time to Develop
Essential Services
tempo, timing, and synchronization will have very
Governance

Understanding and
Knowledge of Social
Structures

Support for
Insurgency

• The
Potential Government’s and COIN forces’ credibility in
their communications efforts with the populace.
Fractiousness
Economic
of Society
Development
Neutral
Populace

Support for HN
Government

Available
Workforce

Perceived
Security

External Material
Support
Insurgent Acts
of Violence
Total Force
Density

Coalition Force
Density

Information

Time to Develop HN
Security Forces

Host Nation
Security Forces

Host Nation
Force Density
Developing and
Restoring Essential
Services

Time to Develop
Essential Services

Satisfaction with
Essential Services

Breakdown of
Essential Services

Expectations for
Essential Services

Essential
Services
Psychological
Operations
Effectiveness

Impact of
Illegitimate Actions

Appropriate Mix of
Effort and Use of Force

Insurgent to Force
Density Ratio

Understanding and
Knowledge of Social
Structures

Time to Develop
Governance

Economic
Investment

Governance

Potential
Fractiousness
of Society

Support for
Insurgency

Economic
Development

Neutral
Populace

Support for HN
Government

Available
Workforce

Perceived
Security

Individual Competence,
Judgment, and Ability
to Execute
Appropriate
Strategic Emphasis

Coalition
Funding

External Material
Support
Insurgent Acts
of Violence
Total Force
Density

Coalition Force
Density

The Logical Lines of Operations from FM 3-24

Information

Time to Develop HN
Security Forces

Host Nation
Security Forces
Host Nation
Force Density
Developing and
Restoring Essential
Services

Breakdown of
Essential Services

Expectations for
Essential Services

Essential
Services
Time to Develop
Essential Services

Psychological
Operations
Effectiveness

Impact of
Illegitimate Actions

Support for
Insurgency

Appropriate Mix of
Effort and Use of Force
Individual Competence,
Judgment, and Ability
to Execute
Appropriate
Strategic Emphasis
Insurgent to Force
Density Ratio

Satisfaction with
Essential Services

Understanding and
Knowledge of Social
Structures

Time to Develop
Governance

Economic
Investment

Governance

Potential
Fractiousness
of Society

Economic
Development

Neutral
Populace

Support for HN
Government

Available
Workforce

Perceived
Security

External Material
Support
Insurgent Acts
of Violence
Total Force
Density

Coalition Force
Density

The Basic Information Ops Loop

Coalition
Funding

Information

Time to Develop HN
Security Forces

Host Nation
Security Forces

Host Nation
Force Density
Popular Support – Sympathizers and Active Supporters

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Govt vs
Insurgents

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’t & SF

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
SUPPORT

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Page 9

Neutral/On
the Fence

Potential
Attractiveness
of Govt vs.
Insurgent Path

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency
Population Conditions, Beliefs, & Structures
Perceived Damages/Use
of Force by Insurgents
Perceived Damages/Use
of Force by Gov’t and CF

Perception of Insurgent
Strength and Intent
Fear of Ins.
Attack,
Repercussions

Relative WOM Message
Amplification Gov’t vs Ins
Perception of Coalition
Intent & Commitment
Strength of
Religious
Ideology & Tribal
Structures
Cultural Erosion/
Displacement

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry
© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Perception of Gov’t
Strength and Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures w/
Gov’t Path

Average
Connectedness
of Population

Satisfaction w/ Gains
in Security, Services &
Employment

Perceived
Security

Page 10

Expectations
for Security,
Services &
Employment

Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Population Conditions, Beliefs, & Structures

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.
Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov t & Coalition

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

POPULATION
CONDITIONS
& BELIEFS

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment
Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Perceived
Security

Page 11

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Govt vs
Insurgents

Perception
Of Govt
Strength
& Intent

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
POPULAR
SUPPORT

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Neutral/On
the Fence

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov t vs.
Insurgent Path

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency
Insurgent Capacity, Outside Support/ Enablement of Insurgents, Narcotics

Insurgent
Damages &
Casualties

Ins Strategic
Comm/IO &
Affiliation w/
Population

Fear of Gov’t /
ANSF / Coalition
Repercussions

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control

Havens /
Ability to
1
Operate
Insurgent
Insurgent Coordination
Leadership
Offensives & Among Ins
Factions
Training, Skill
Presence
& Exper
(Clear & Hold)

Ins Provision
of Gov’t &
Services
Ins Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support for Gov’t

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Ties to
Narcotics
& Other
Criminal
Funding

Feedback Loop Examples:
1. Insurgent expansion: Insurgent factions with havens as base can expand their
presence and influence, further increasing their operating base territory.
(Permissive population contribution to Havens / Ability to Operate input from
separate sector).
2. Alignment of criminal and insurgent interests: Weakly governed / policed
territory may support insurgents, terrorists and criminals alike. Often interests
align and lines blur with criminal activity and funding contributing to insurgent
operations and expansion, further increasing the weakly governed terrority and
© PA Knowledge Limited 2009
Page 12

Outside
Support /
Enablement
of Ins.

2
Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Insurgent
Terrain
Advantage
Insurgent
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower,
& ISR

Likelihood
of Crime/
Violence/
Ins Support
for Payment

Criminal/
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Narcotics &
Criminal
Activity Levels
Illegit Agric
Production
Trade &
Employment

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth
Insurgent Capacity, Outside Support/ Enablement of Insurgents, Narcotics

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

OUTSIDE SUPPORT
TO INSURGENT
FACTIONS

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions

Havens / Ability to
Operate
Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun
/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov t & Coalition

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov
’t

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment
Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Perception
Of Gov t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Perceived
Security

Page 13

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

INSURGENTS
Ties to

Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Govt vs
Insurgents

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
POPULAR
SUPPORT
SUPPORT

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

POPULATION
POPULATION
CONDITIONS
CONDITIONS
& BELIEFS
& BELIEFS

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Neutral/On
the Fence

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov t vs.
Insurgent Path

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

NARCOTICS
Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

IllegitAgric
Production,
Trade &
Employment
Infrastructure, Services, & Economy
Feedback Loop Examples:
1. Agricultural production and markets: Investment and spending
enables agricultural production. Production can boost economic
activity and trade which feeds back into private sector re-investment.
(Public policy and investment in infrastructure, workforce, financial
markets, etc helps start / maintain private sector momentum.)
2. Making legit agriculture more attractive: Improved legit agricultural
opportunities may make illegit agricultural options less attractive which
further increases legit agricultural production, trade, and markets.
(Other inputs to decisions related to legit vs illegit from other sectors.)

Legit Agric
Production

2

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non-Agric

Fraction of
Workforce
and Agric.
Legit vs Illegit

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

Legit vs Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

1
Infr. Services, Econ,
Policy & Execution/
Perceived Fairness

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Private Sector
Capital Mgmt,
Investment &
Spending

Ability to Move
People &
Goods Rapidly

Page 14

Legit Economic
Activity, Trade &
Employment
Infrastructure, Services, & Economy

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

OUTSIDE SUPPORT
TO INSURGENT
TO INSURGENT
FACTIONS
FACTIONS

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions

Havens / Ability to
Operate
Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population
Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov t & Coalition

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment
Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Perception
Of Gov t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Perceived
Security

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Page 15

INSURGENTS
Ties to

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Govt vs
Insurgents

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
POPULAR
SUPPORT
SUPPORT

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr, Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

POPULATION
POPULATION
CONDITIONS
CONDITIONS
& BELIEFS
& BELIEFS

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Neutral/On
the Fence

NARCOTICS
Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov t vs.
Insurgent Path

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Legit Agric
Private Sector Production
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs.Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Legit Other
Production Services
(SWET,
& Services
Non- Agric Healthcare,
Education)

INFRASTRUCTURE,
SERVICES &
ECONOMY
Ability to
Move
Private Sector
People
Capital Mgmt.,
& Goods Investment &
Rapidly
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment
Governance – Central Government Development & Capacity; Engagement /
Empowerment of Tribal Governance; Overall Governance Capacity & Impacts
Gov’t Security
Policy Quality
& Investment

Central Gov’t
Institutional
& Execution
Capacity
Gov’t
Funding
Adequacy

Gov’t Training,
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Gov’t
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Gov’t
Professionalism,
Policy Quality &
Fairness

Transparency of
Gov’t Processes
& Investments

Gov’t
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Gov’t / ANSF
StratCom/IO

Relative
Message
Impact
Gov’t vs Ins

’

’

Overall Gov’t
Reach,
Execution,
Capacity &
Investment

Gov’t/Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’t vs Ins

Tax
Revenues

Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate Tribal
Structures &
Beliefs

Feedback Loop Example:
Informal learning and mentoring: Formal training and vetting (enabled by institutional capacity) can
improve and maintain Government workforce skill and professionalism. However, as you build a
skilled, professional workforce base and culture, informal learning and expectations for behavior is
also very powerful (and can contribute to institutional development as well…another key loop)
© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Page 16
Governance – Central Government Development & Capacity; Engagement /
Empowerment of Tribal Governance; Overall Governance Capacity & Impacts

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

OUTSIDE SUPPORT
TO INSURGENT
TO INSURGENT
FACTIONS
FACTIONS

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions

Havens / Ability to
Operate
Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population
Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity
Gov't
Funding
Adequacy
Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

OVERALL
GOVERNMENT
CAPACITY

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun
/
IO

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Transparency
of Gov’t
Gov't
Overall Gov't
Processes & Professionalism Reach,
Investments
Policy Quality Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment
Gov't/
Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’t ’ Ins.
vs

Tax
Revenues

POPULATION
POPULATION
CONDITIONS
CONDITIONS
& BELIEFS
& BELIEFS

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Perception
Of Gov t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Perceived
Security

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Page 17

INSURGENTS
Ties to

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Govt vs
Insurgents

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
POPULAR
SUPPORT
SUPPORT

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr, Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

TRIBAL
GOVERNANCE
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov t & Coalition

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov t vs.
Insurgent Path

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs. Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

INFRASTRUCTURE,
SERVICES & &
SERVICES
ECONOMY
ECONOMY
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric

NARCOTICS
Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Private Sector
Capital Mgmt.,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment
Coalition Resources, Actions, & Impacts and Homeland Support
Coalition
Knowledge &
Understanding
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
COIN Support
Strategy &
Unity
Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort & Force

Coalition
Avg COIN
Experienc
e & Skill

Coalition
Execution
Capacity &
Priorities

Resource
Levels (Mil. &
Civ. Forces
and Levels)

Coalition
StratComm/IO

US Domestic
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

US Gov’t
Support for Breadth of
Operation Coalition
& Support

Coalition Dev.
Ops-ANSF
Advisory &
Aid

Coalition Dev.
Ops-Gov’t
Advisory &
Aid

Coalition
Visibility to
Population

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Afghan Methods

US Domestic/
Int’l StratComm
& Diplomacy
Media
Sensationalism
Bias

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

Coalition Dev. OpsInfrastructure,
Services, Econ
Advisory & Aid

Page 18

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief
Coalition Resources, Actions, & Impacts and Homeland Support

Ins. Damages
& Casualties
Coalition
Knowledge
& Underst
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
COIN
Support
Strategy &
Unity

Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort &
Force

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Transparency
of Gov’t
Processes &
Investments

US Domestic/
Int'l Strategic
Commun
.
& Diplomacy

COALITION
Media
Sensationalism
Bias
DOMESTIC
SUPPORT
Coalition

Dev.OpsInfrastructure,
Services,
Econ.
Advisory
& Aid

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

OVERALL
OVERALL
GOVERNMENT
CAPACITY
CAPACITY
Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality
Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

Gov't/
Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Gov’t
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid

Breadth of
US Domestic Coalition &
Support
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement

TRIBAL
TRIBAL
GOVERNANCE
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov t & Coalition

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Perception
Of Gov t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Perceived
Security

Page 19

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

INSURGENTS
Ties to

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Govt vs
Insurgents

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
POPULAR
SUPPORT
SUPPORT

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr, Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Average
Connectedness
of Population

Tax
Revenues

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

POPULATION
POPULATION
CONDITIONS
CONDITIONS
& BELIEFS
& BELIEFS

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Coalition
Visibility to
Population

Gov't
Funding
Adequacy

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

Coalition
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid

COALITION
CAPACITY &
PRIORITIES
US Gov't
Support for
Operation

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions

Havens / Ability to
Operate

Coalition
Coalition
Avg COIN
Experience Execution
Capacity &
& Skill
Priorities

Resource Coalition
Levels
Strategic
(Mil. & Civ. Commun
./IO
Forces,
Aid Levels)

OUTSIDE SUPPORT
TO INSURGENT
TO INSURGENT
FACTIONS
FACTIONS

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov t vs.
Insurgent Path

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment
Duration
of
Operation

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs. Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

INFRASTRUCTURE,
SERVICES & &
SERVICES
ECONOMY
ECONOMY
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric

NARCOTICS
Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Private Sector
Capital Mgmt.,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment
ANSF Development, Capacity & Impacts – Tactical & Institutional
ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties

ISR / Open
Source Ops

ANSF &
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional
& Execution
Capacity

1

ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring

ANSF
Funding
Adequacy

2

1

Total Security
Force Capacity
& focus
ANSF Unit
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Targeted
Strikes
Sweep Ops
(Clear)
Policing &
Security
Ops (Hold)

ANSF Avg
Professionalism,
Skill, Discipline
& Morale

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force


ANSF
Corruption
& Tribal
Favoritism

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Feedback Loop Examples:
1. ANSF success and informal momentum: ANSF professionalism and skill contributes to
tactical capacity which enables effective operations. Success and experience feeds back into
professionalism, skill and morale which further reinforces both leadership & tactical capacity
and recruiting / retention.
2. ANSF institutional capacity: Institutional capacity and processes enable manpower, formal
training, logistics, planning & budgeting, etc that reinforce informal gains support ANSF
capacity over time.
© PA Knowledge Limited 2009
Page 20

Counter Narcotics
/Crime Ops
ANSF Development, Capacity & Impacts – Tactical & Institutional
ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties

ANSF
TACTICAL
Coalition
Knowledge
& Underst
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
Avg COIN
Experience
& Skill

Coalition
COIN
Support
Strategy &
Unity

Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort &
Force

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

COALITION
COALITION
CAPACITY &
CAPACITY &
PRIORITIES
PRIORITIES

Resource Coalition
Levels
Strategic
(Mil. & Civ. Commun./IO
Forces,
Aid Levels)

US Domestic
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

ANSF
Coalition
Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population

Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Gov’t
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid
Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

US Gov't
Support for
Operation

Gov't
Funding
Adequacy

Breadth of
Coalition &
Support

Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Transparency
of Gov’t
Processes &
Investments

US Domestic/
Int'l Strategic
Commun.
& Diplomacy

Infrastructure,
Services,
Econ.
Advisory
& Aid

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Total
Security
Force
Capacity &
Focus

Sweep Ops
(Clear)

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

Policing &
Security Ops
(Hold)

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring

Targeted
Strikes

ANSF
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

OVERALL
OVERALL
GOVERNMENT
CAPACITY
CAPACITY
Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement

TRIBAL
TRIBAL
GOVERNANCE
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.
Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov t & Coalition

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Perception
Of Gov t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Perceived
Security

Page 21

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.
Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

INSURGENTS
Ties to

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Govt vs
Insurgents

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
POPULAR
SUPPORT
SUPPORT

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr, Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Counter Narcotics/
Crime Ops

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

POPULATION
POPULATION
CONDITIONS
CONDITIONS
& BELIEFS
& BELIEFS

Average
Connectedness
of Population

Tax
Revenues

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)
Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

OUTSIDE SUPPORT
OUTSIDE SUPPORT
TOTO INSURGENT
INSURGENT
FACTIONS
FACTIONS
Havens / Ability to
Operate

ANSF
INSTITUTIONAL

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality
Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

COALITION
DOMESTIC Gov't/
Contractor
SUPPORT Corruption &
Coalition
SUPPORT Tribal Favoritism
Dev.Ops-

Media
Sensationalism
Bias

ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

ANSF
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid

Coalition
Execution
Capacity &
Priorities

ISR / Open
Source Ops

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov t vs.
Insurgent Path

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment
Duration
of
Operation

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs. Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

INFRASTRUCTURE,
SERVICES & &
SERVICES
ECONOMY
ECONOMY
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric

NARCOTICS
Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Private Sector
Capital Mgmt.,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics

=

ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties

ANSF
TACTICAL
Coalition
Knowledge
& Underst
.
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
‘COIN
Support
’
Strategy &
Unity

Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort &
Force

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

COALITION
CAPACITY &
PRIORITIES

Resource Coalition
Levels
Strategic
(Mil. & Civ. Commun
./IO
Forces,
Aid Levels)

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring

ANSF
Coalition Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population

CENTRAL
Gov't
GOV’T
Funding

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

Adequacy
Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Breadth of
US Domestic Coalition &
Support
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

COALITION
Media
Sensationalism
Bias
DOMESTIC
SUPPORT
Coalition

Dev.OpsInfrastructure,
Services,
Econ.
Advisory
& Aid

Gov't/
Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Targeted
Strikes
Sweep Ops
(Clear)

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

Havens / Ability to
Operate

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’t ’ Ins.
vs

OVERALL
GOVERNMENT
CAPACITY

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun
/
IO

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services
Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
Ins. Targeted
by Ins.
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov
’t

Ins. Strategic
Commun
/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement

Recognition/
TRIBAL
Engagement to
Integrate
Rivalry
GOVERNANCE Ethnic/Tribal
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

Tax
Revenues

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Gov vs
’t
Insurgents

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

POPULAR
SUPPORT

Neutral/On
the Fence

NARCOTICS
Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov vs.
’t
Insurgent Path

Perceived
Security

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains & Sustainment
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr, Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency IllegitAgric
Production,
Trade &
Employment

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Duration
of
Operation

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

INSURGENTS
Ties to

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’t & SF

Counter Narcotics/
Crime Ops

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

POPULATION
CONDITIONS
& BELIEFS

Average
Connectedness
of Population

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

ANSF
INSTITUTIONAL

ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

OUTSIDE SUPPORT
TO INSURGENT
FACTIONS

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions

Policing &
Security Ops
(Hold)

ANSF
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Transparency
of Gov’t
Gov't
Overall Gov't
Processes & Professionalism Reach,
Investments
Policy Quality Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

US Domestic/
Int'l Strategic
Commun
.
& Diplomacy

Total
Security
Force
Capacity &
Focus

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale

Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Gov’t
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid

US Gov't
Support for
Operation

ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

ANSF
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid

Coalition
Coalition
Avg COIN
Experience Execution
Capacity &
& Skill
Priorities

ISR / Open
Source Ops

Population/Popular Support
Infrastructure, Economy, & Services
Government
Afghanistan Security Forces
Insurgents
Crime and Narcotics
Coalition Forces & Actions
Physical Environment

Significant
Delay

Legit Agric
Private Sector Production
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs.Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Legit Other
Production Services
(SWET,
& Services
Non- Agric Healthcare,
Education)

INFRASTRUCTURE,
SERVICES &
ECONOMY
Ability to
Move
Private Sector
People
Capital Mgmt.,
& Goods Investment &
Rapidly
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment

WORKING DRAFT – V3
© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Page 22
Key Feedback Loop: Securing and Empowering the Population

ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties
ISR / Open
Source Ops

1

2
ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

ANSF
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid
ANSF
Coalition
Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population
alition
Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
ov’t
visory Afghan Methods
Aid

Total
Security
Force
Capacity &
Focus

ANSF
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale
ANSF
Training &
Mentoring
ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism
Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Targeted
Strikes
Sweep Ops
(Clear)

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

Policing &
Security Ops
(Hold)

Havens / Ability to
Operate

Territory Not
Under Gov
’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.
Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

Fear is a key mechanism for insurgent factions to prevent the
population from engaging and Gov't/ANSF supporting the
actively
Strategic
Central Gov't
Commun/
Government.
Institutional &
IO
Execution
Relative WOM
Securing populated territory (clear and hold ops) can reduce
Capacity
Message
Relative
t
Amplification
insurgent ability to target and intimidateMessagepopulation such
the
ng
Gov’t vs Ins
Impact Gov’t
Gov't
acy
that Gov’t sympathizersofare willing to be vs Ins
active supporters.
Integration
Gov't Training
Western
Local Tribal
Mentoring,
HUMINT: The population will beAffiliation willing to provide intel
more
Structures
Gov't
Perception of
Vetting, and
Backlash
Workforce
Coalition Intent
Hiring
if they Skill &not fear insurgent repercussions.
do Avail
& Commitment
ANA & ANP Development: ANSF recruiting and development
sparency
Gov’t
Gov't
Overall Gov't
facilitated Reach,the expansion Strength of
by
of secure regions. (ANA and
cesses & isProfessionalism
Religious
stments ANP leaders, families, facilities, etc less likely to be targeted or
Policy Quality
Execution
Ideology &
& Fairness
Capacity &
Tribal
overrun. Investment
Ability to
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)
Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’t ’vs Ins.

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions

Reconcile

Page 23

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov
’t

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding
Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Neutral/On
the Fence

S
w

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Path

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent
Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security Services

Infrastructure
Dev Adequacy

Private
Workf
Skill &
Key Feedback Loop: Government Engagement and Integration of Tribal Governance

han
ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
tion Capacity
OpsSF
sory
Aid

Appropriate
Use of Force

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring
ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Training, Skill
& Experience

& Pakistan)

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Critical for the Government to recognize andPerceived the
make
Gov't
Damages/Use
of
effort toSecurity
engage existing tribal Relative
structures andForce by
Policy
Gov’ t & Coalition
Perception of
Quality &
Message
Insurgent
Governance if they are to be accepted by the population.
Investment
Quality
Strength &
alition/Homeland
Gov’t ’vs Ins.
Acceptance of
Ties to local governance can gain popular support and Intent
fghan Methods
rapidly expand the Government’s overall capacity and
Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
‘reach’ which further increases their capacity and ability
Central Gov't
Commun/
Institutional &
IO
to engage the population.
Execution
Fear of Ins.
Relative WOM

ANSF
Coalition
Funding
sibility to Adequacy
opulation

Capacity

Training
oring,
g, and
ring

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

v't/
ractor
ption &
avoritism

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’t & SF

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Attack/
Repercussions

Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Path

Criminal/
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Perceived
Security

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr, Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Page 24

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

N
&

Illegit A
Produc
Trad
Employ

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov
’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Tax
Revenues

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Retention,
Manpower
& ISR

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs
Rela
Econo
Opport

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

Private Sector
Capital Mgmt.,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – SECURITY
Population/Popular Support
Infrastructure, Economy, & Services
Government
Afghanistan Security Forces
Insurgents
Crime and Narcotics
Coalition Forces & Actions
Physical Environment

ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties
ISR / Open
Source Ops

Coalition
Knowledge
& Underst.
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
Avg COIN
Experience
& Skill

Coalition
‘ COIN
Support’
Strategy &
Unity

Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort &
Force

ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

ANSF
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid

Coalition
Execution
Capacity &
Priorities

ANSF
Coalition
Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population
Resource Coalition
Levels
Strategic
(Military Commun./IO
Forces,
Civilian
Forces,
Aid Levels)

Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Gov’t
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid

US Domestic
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

Gov't
Funding
Adequacy
Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Breadth of
Coalition &
Support

Transparency
of Gov’t
Processes &
Investments

US Domestic/
Int'l Strategic
Commun.
& Diplomacy
Media
Sensationalism
Bias

Coalition
Dev.OpsInfrastructure,
Services,
Econ.
Advisory
& Aid

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions
Havens / Ability to
Operate

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins
Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Path

Likelihood of
Active Ins.
Support for
Payment

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Perceived
Security

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr., Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Duration
of
Operation

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Tax
Revenues

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)
Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality
Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

Gov't/
Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring
ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

Counter- Narcotics/
Crime Ops

Policing &
Security Ops
(Hold)

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Targeted
Strikes
Sweep Ops
(Clear)

ANSF
Capacity &
Priorities

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

US Gov't
Support for
Operation

Total
Security
Force
Capacity &
Focus

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs. Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

Private Sector
Capital
Management,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment

WORKING DRAFT
© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Page 26
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – GOVERNANCE

Population/Popular Support
Infrastructure, Economy, & Services
Government
Afghanistan Security Forces
Insurgents
Crime and Narcotics
Coalition Forces & Actions
Physical Environment

ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties
ISR / Open
Source Ops

Coalition
Knowledge
& Underst.
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
Avg COIN
Experience
& Skill

Coalition
‘ COIN
Support’
Strategy &
Unity

Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort &
Force

ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

ANSF
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid

Coalition
Execution
Capacity &
Priorities

ANSF
Coalition
Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population
Resource Coalition
Levels
Strategic
(Mil. & Civ. Commun./IO
Forces,
Aid Levels)

Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Gov’t
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid

US Domestic
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

Gov't
Funding
Adequacy
Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Breadth of
Coalition &
Support

Transparency
of Gov’t
Processes &
Investments

US Domestic/
Int'l Strategic
Commun.
& Diplomacy
Media
Sensationalism
Bias

Coalition
Dev.OpsInfrastructure,
Services,
Econ.
Advisory
& Aid

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

WORKING DRAFT

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Tax
Revenues

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins
Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Path

Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Perceived
Security

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr., Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

Page 27

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Duration
of
Operation

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)
Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Reconciliation
Effectiveness

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions
Havens / Ability to
Operate

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring
ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

Counter- Narcotics/
Crime Ops

Policing &
Security Ops
(Hold)

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality
Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

Gov't/
Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Targeted
Strikes
Sweep Ops
(Clear)

ANSF
Capacity &
Priorities

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

US Gov't
Support for
Operation

Total
Security
Force
Capacity &
Focus

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs. Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

Private Sector
Capital Mgmt.,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – DEVELOPMENT
Population/Popular Support
Infrastructure, Economy, & Services
Government
Afghanistan Security Forces
Insurgents
Crime and Narcotics
Coalition Forces & Actions
Physical Environment

ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties
ISR / Open
Source Ops

Coalition
Knowledge
& Underst.
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
Avg COIN
Experience
& Skill

Coalition
‘ COIN
Support’
Strategy &
Unity

Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort &
Force

ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

ANSF
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid

Coalition
Execution
Capacity &
Priorities

ANSF
Coalition
Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population
Resource Coalition
Levels
Strategic
(Mil. & Civ. Commun./IO
Forces,
Aid Levels)

Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Gov’t
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid

US Domestic
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

Gov't
Funding
Adequacy

Breadth of
Coalition &
Support

Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Transparency
of Gov’t
Processes &
Investments

US Domestic/
Int'l Strategic
Commun.
& Diplomacy
Media
Sensationalism
Bias

Coalition
Dev.OpsInfrastructure,
Services,
Econ.
Advisory
& Aid

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Ins. Damages
& Casualties

Fear of
Gov’ t/ANSF/
Coalition
Repercussions
Havens / Ability to
Operate

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring
ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

Counter- Narcotics/
Crime Ops

Policing &
Security Ops
(Hold)

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins
Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Insurgent
Terrain
Insurgent
Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
/Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Path

Likelihood of
Crime/Violence
/Ins. Support
for Payment

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Perceived
Security

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr., Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Duration
of
Operation

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Tax
Revenues

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Outside
Support/
Enablement
of Ins.

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)
Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality
Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

Gov't/
Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Targeted
Strikes
Sweep Ops
(Clear)

ANSF
Capacity &
Priorities

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

US Gov't
Support for
Operation

Total
Security
Force
Capacity &
Focus

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs. Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

Private Sector
Capital Mgmt.,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment

WORKING DRAFT
© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Page 28
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics
– Claim the Information Initiative

Message availability is constrained by low “average connectedness” (rural
populations spread across harsh terrain, low literacy rates, limited radio) and
most message propagation / amplification is by word of mouth (WOM). WOM
Counter- Narcotics/
Targeted
Crime
Strikes
tends to Damages negative messages more strongly than positive, but also Ops
tends to
Ins. amplify Fear of
Sweep Ops
& Casualties
Gov’ t/ANSF/
(Clear)
be biased towards current sentiments.
Coalition

ANSF &
Coalition
Damages/
Casualties
ISR / Open
Source Ops

Coalition
Knowledge
& Underst.
of Social
Structures
Duration of
Operation

Coalition
Avg COIN
Experience
& Skill

Coalition
‘ COIN
Support’
Strategy &
Unity

Coalition
Appropriate
Balance of
Effort &
Force

ANSF Unit
Leadership
& Tactical
Capacity

Coalition
Adjustment
of Approach
to Fit Afghan

ANSF
Manpower
Recruiting &
Retention

ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
Coalition Capacity
Dev. OpsANSF
Advisory
& Aid

Coalition
Execution
Capacity &
Priorities

ANSF
Coalition
Funding
Visibility to Adequacy
Population
Resource Coalition
Levels
Strategic
(Military Commun./IO
Forces,
Civilian
Forces,
Aid Levels)

Coalition
Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland
Acceptance of
Gov’t
Advisory Afghan Methods
& Aid

US Domestic
Perceived
Cost/Benefit
& Support

Gov't
Funding
Adequacy
Gov't Training
Mentoring,
Vetting, and
Hiring

Breadth of
Coalition &
Support

Transparency
of Gov’t
Processes &
Investments

US Domestic/
Int'l Strategic
Commun.
& Diplomacy
Media
Sensationalism
Bias

Coalition
Dev.OpsInfrastructure,
Services,
Econ.
Advisory
& Aid

Repercussions

Outside

Havens / Government
Support/
“Western affiliation backlash” may undermineAbility to Enablement messages if they are
Operate
of Ins.
seen as puppets who lack the strength to deliver progress or have taken an
Coordination
Ins.
Among Ins.
Offensives &
Insurgent
overly Western Not
Territory posture
Factions
Presence
Terrain
Ins.
Insurgent
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

(Clear & Hold)

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins
Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Perceived
Security

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Infr., Services, Econ.
Policy & Execution
/Perceived Fairness

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

=

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding

Funding &
Material
Support to
Insurgents

Relative
Popular
Support/
Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Insurgents

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Path

Likelihood of
Active Ins.
Support for
Payment

Population
Actively
Supporting
Insurgency

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Private Sector
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non- Agric
Ability to
Move
People
& Goods
Rapidly

Narcotics
& Criminal
Activity
Levels

Illegit Agric
Production,
Trade &
Employment

Terrain
Harshness
& Breadth

Duration
of
Operation

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Tax
Revenues

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO

Advantage
Recruiting,
Retention,
Manpower Criminal/
& ISR
Trafficking
Capability &
Coercion

Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality
Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

Population/Popular Support
Infrastructure, Economy, & Services
Government
Afghanistan Security Forces
Insurgents
Crime and Narcotics
Coalition Forces & Actions
Physical Environment

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Gov't/
Contractor
Corruption &
Tribal Favoritism

Policing &
Security Ops
(Hold)

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

US Gov't
Support for
Operation

Total
Security
Force
Capacity &
Focus

ANSF
Capacity &
Priorities

ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

Claim the Information Initiative: “Message” quality and availability impact who
is relatively more effective in influencing the population. Government message
quality has been stronger relative to insurgent factions (who have typically not
made the effort or been effective in aligning with civilian beliefs), but lack of
progress has undermined message credibility.

Fraction of
Workforce
And Agric.
Legit vs
Illegit

Legit Agric
Production

Population
Basic Needs
Service Levels
& Employment
Legit vs. Illegit
Relative
Economic
Opportunity

Civilian
Services
(SWET,
Healthcare,
Education)

Private Sector
Capital
Management,
Investment &
Spending

Legit Economic
Activity,
Trade &
Employment

WORKING DRAFT

Significant
Delay

Page 29
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics
– Claim the Information Initiative
& Morale

h
n
ANSF
Institutional &
Execution
n Capacity
s-

ANSF
Training &
Mentoring
ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

y
ANSF
alition
Funding
bility to Adequacy
ulation
on/Homeland
ceptance of
an Methods

Gov't
Workforce
Skill & Avail

Gov't
Integration of
Local Tribal
Structures

Western
Affiliation
Backlash

Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
vs Ins

Strength of
Religious
Ideology &
Tribal
Structures Cultural Erosion/
Displacement
Recognition/
Engagement to
Integrate
Tribal
Structures&
Beliefs

Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.
Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

Provide
Humanitarian
Relief

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding
Relative
Popular
Support/
Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Neutral/On
the Fence

Potential
Attractiveness
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Path

Fun
Ma
Sup
Insu

Popu
Sympa
w/ Insu

T
Ha
&

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Tax
Revenues

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO

Gov't
Overall Gov't
Professionalism
Reach,
Policy Quality
Execution
& Fairness
Capacity &
Investment

tor
on &
oritism

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

Gov't
Security
Policy
Quality &
Investment

Central Gov't
Institutional &
Execution
Capacity

ining
ng,
and
g

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

Claim the Information Initiative: “Message” quality and
Private Sector
Satisfaction
availability impact who is relatively more effective in influencing
Workforce
w/ Gains in
Infrastructure
Skill & Avail
the population. Government message quality has been
Security, Services
Dev. Adequacy
& relative
strongerEmploymentto Visible Gains factions (who have typically not
insurgent & Sustainment
In Security,
made the effort or been effective in aligning with civilian
Services &
Employment
beliefs), but lack of progress has undermined message
Expectations
Civilia
Legit Other
credibility.
for Security,
Servic
Production
Services, &

& Services

(SWE

Employment
Non- Agric
Message availability is constrained by low “average Healthc
Perceived
Educat
Security
connectedness” (rural populations spread across harsh terrain,
low literacy rates, limited radio) and most to Private Sector
Ability message propagation
Capital
Move
/ amplification is by word of mouth (WOM). WOM tends to
Management,
People
Infr., Services, Econ. negative messages more strongly than positive, but
amplify
& Goods Investment &
Spending
Policy & Execution
Rapidly
/Perceivedalso tends to be biased towards current sentiments.
Fairness

“Western affiliation backlash” may undermine Government
messages if they are seen as puppets who lack the strength to
deliver progress or have taken an overly Western posture
Page 30
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics
– Population Security
p
cal
ty

ANSF
Capacity &
Priorities

ANSF Avg.
Professionalism
Skill, Discipline,
& Morale

ANSF
Corruption &
Tribal
Favoritism

g
Security Ops
(Hold)

p
Havens / Ability to
Operate

Territory Not
Under Gov’t
Control (Afghan
& Pakistan)

ANSF
Appropriate
Use of Force

R.O.L. Policy,
Execution &
Perceived
Fairness

ty
y
&
ent

Ins. Provision
Of Gov’t &
Services

Perceived
Damages &
Use of Force
by Ins.

Ins. Strategic
Commun/IO
& Affiliation w/
Population

Relative
Message
Quality
Gov’ t ’vs Ins.

Perceived
Damages/Use
of Force by
Gov’ t & Coalition

forces impact perceived security.
Insurgents rely targeted “attacks on progress”Strength of
to generate fear
and intimidation to limit sympathizers moving towards active
Religious
Ideology &
supporters. They often threaten or target civilian and security force
Tribal
individuals who are visibly supporting the government – the Cultural Erosion/
Structures fear this
Displacement
generates is powerful in slowing or reversing positive momentum.
ecognition/
gagement to
In addition to near term security concerns, the population is
Ethnic/Tribal
Rivalry
assessing ‘who will win’ over the Integrate
long term by comparing
Tribal
tructures&
perception of Insurgent strength to perception of Government
Beliefs
strength and also considering perceived Coalition commitment. (A
key input to perceived strength is how much of the population lives
in region secured by the Government.) They will hesitate to actively
support the government if they feel they will fail, particularly if they
have been witness to “clear and leave” operations.

Fear of Ins.
Attack/
Repercussions

Relative WOM
Message
Amplification
Gov’t vs Ins
Perception of
Coalition Intent
& Commitment

Page 31

Population
Actively
Supporting
Gov’ t & SF

Satisfaction
w/ Gains in
Security, Services
& Employment Visible Gains
In Security,
Services &
Employment
Expectations
for Security,
Services, &
Employment

Perceived
Security

I f

© PA Knowledge Limited 2009

Insurgent
Capacity,
Priorities &
Effectiveness

Ties to
Narcotics &
Other Criminal
Funding
Relative
Popular
Support/
Tolerance
Gov’t vs
Insurgents

Neutral/On
the Fence

Population
Sympathizing
w/ Gov’t

Potential
Attractivenes
of Gov’t vs.
Insurgent Pa

Perception
Of Gov’t
Strength
& Intent

Ability to
Reconcile
Religious
Ideology,
Tribal
Structures
w/ Gov’t
Path
Average
Connectedness
of Population

Ins. Targeted
Attacks on
Progress/
Support
for Gov’t

Ins.
Leadership,
Training, Skill
& Experience

Perception of
Insurgent
Strength &
Intent

Gov't/ANSF
Strategic
Commun/
IO
Relative
Message
Impact Gov’t
Population Security: Security is a function of day to day conditions
Gov't
vs Ins
and also perception of ‘who will win’tegrationlonger term: Western
over of
ocal Tribal
Affiliation
Structures
Actual damages by both the Insurgents and ANSF /Backlash
Coalition

Coordination
Among Ins.
Factions

Ins.
Offensives &
Presence
(Clear & Hold)

Outsid
Suppor
Enablem
of Ins.

S

i

E

Infrastructure
Dev. Adequacy
& Sustainment

Priv
W
Ski

Legit Other
Production
& Services
Non-Agric
Ability to
Move
People

Private Se
Capita
Managem
Investme
How to win in Al Anbar
How to Win the War in Al Anbar

by CPT Trav

HI!

This is an American Soldier. We'll call him Joe. Joe wants to win in Al Anbar
But sometimes it seems like other people don't share that idea.
How can Joe win in Al Anbar? By fighting the insurgents?
Герой
Цель
Проблема / Слабость
Злодей
Решение
Цена
Мораль
Debugging UIWebViews and
Websites on iOS

Session 600
Timothy Hatcher
Safari and WebKit Engineer

These are confidential sessions—please refrain from streaming, blogging, or taking pictures
?
≠
FPO
FPO
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
Web Inspector Overview
Navigation Sidebar
Navigation Sidebar
Resource Navigator (⌃1)

• Frames and resources
• Extra scripts
• Anonymous scripts
Storage Navigator (⌃2)

• Cookies
• Local and session storage
• Databases and tables
• Application cache
Instrument Navigator (⌃3)

• Timelines
Network Requests
■ Layout and Rendering
■ JavaScript and Events
• JavaScript profiles
■

• CSS selector profiles
Search Navigator (⌃4)

• Full text resource search
• DOM tree search
Issue Navigator (⌃5)

• JavaScript exceptions
• Console API errors and warnings
• HTML and XML parsing issues
• Network errors
Debug Navigator (⌃6)

• Current call stack when paused
Breakpoint Navigator (⌃7)

• Special exception breakpoints
• Current resource breakpoints
Log Navigator (⌃8)

• Current log with JavaScript console
• Previous logs on reload
Navigation Sidebar
Content Browser and Quick Console
Content Browser and Quick Console
Content Browser and Quick Console
Content Browser and Quick Console
Content Browser and Quick Console
Navigation Bar
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
• Selection path
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
• Selection path
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
• Selection path
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
• Selection path
• DOM node locator button
Navigation Bar
• Sidebar toggle buttons
• Back and forward buttons
• Content path
• Content view selector
• Selection path
• DOM node locator button
Content Browser and Quick Console
Content Browser and Quick Console
Quick Console
Quick Console

• Auto expanding JavaScript console
• Object property completion
• Debugger controls
Content Browser and Quick Console
Details Sidebar
Details Sidebar
Resource Details (⌃⇧1)

• MIME-type and resource type
• Full URL and components
• Query parameters
• Request and response headers
Node Details (⌃⇧2)

• Type, name and value
• Attributes
• DOM properties
• Event listeners
Style Details (⌃⇧3)

• Computed style
• Style attribute
• HTML attributes
• Style rules
• Base style rules
Appearance Details (⌃⇧4)

• Box model
Position
■ Margin
■ Border
■ Padding
■ Content
■
Application Cache Details

• Manifest and frame URLs
• Online status
Scope Chain Details (⌃⇧5)

• Local variables
• Closure variables
• Catch variables
• With properties
• Global variables
Details Sidebar
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
Inspection and Tweaking
⌘R
◎
◎
◎

◎
◎

◎
◎
◎
✪
◎
◎
✪


✱罰⁉
Demo
Inspection and Tweaking
Summary
Inspection and Tweaking
Summary

• Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more!
Inspection and Tweaking
Summary

• Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more!
• Tweak without the endless rebuild cycle
Inspection and Tweaking
Summary

• Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more!
• Tweak without the endless rebuild cycle
• Hover DOM nodes to highlight the CSS boxes
Inspection and Tweaking
Summary

• Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more!
• Tweak without the endless rebuild cycle
• Hover DOM nodes to highlight the CSS boxes
• Double-click to edit CSS and DOM nodes
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
Performance Analysis
<>
<>
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<>
Demo
Performance Analysis
Summary
Performance Analysis
Summary

• Always test cell network performance
Performance Analysis
Summary

• Always test cell network performance
• Minimize the number of resources and large resources
Performance Analysis
Summary

• Always test cell network performance
• Minimize the number of resources and large resources
• Minify JavaScript and avoid large libraries
Performance Analysis
Summary

• Always test cell network performance
• Minimize the number of resources and large resources
• Minify JavaScript and avoid large libraries
• Use asynchronous or deferred script loading
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
Debugging Issues
✓
⁈
Demo
Debugging Issues
Summary
Debugging Issues
Summary

• No longer is “stringByEvaluatingJavaScriptFromString:” a black box
Debugging Issues
Summary

• No longer is “stringByEvaluatingJavaScriptFromString:” a black box
• Call functions instead of passing large scripts
Debugging Issues
Summary

• No longer is “stringByEvaluatingJavaScriptFromString:” a black box
• Call functions instead of passing large scripts
• Evaluate in the Quick Console using the current scope
What You’ll Learn
• Web Inspector overview
• Inspection and tweaking
• Performance analysis
• Debugging issues
More Information
Vicki Murley
Safari Technologies Evangelist
vicki@apple.com

Safari Dev Center
http://developer.apple.com/safari

Apple Developer Forums
http://devforums.apple.com
Related Sessions
Optimizing Web Content in UIWebViews and Websites on iOS

Marina
Tuesday 4:30PM

Delivering Web Content on High Resolution Displays

Nob Hill
Wednesday 11:30AM

Advanced Effects with HTML5 Media Technologies

Marina
Thursday 2:00PM
Labs
Safari and Web Tools Lab

Safari & Web Lab
Wednesday 2:00PM

Web Content Optimization Lab

Safari & Web Lab
Wednesday 3:15PM

Safari and WebKit Open Lab

Safari & Web Lab
Thursday 3:15PM
Summary
Summary
• Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app
Summary
• Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app
• Enable Safari’s developer tools on Mac and iOS
Summary
• Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app
• Enable Safari’s developer tools on Mac and iOS
• Web Inspector has a new streamlined user interface
Summary
• Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app
• Enable Safari’s developer tools on Mac and iOS
• Web Inspector has a new streamlined user interface
• Be informed when debugging your site and app’s web content
Q&A
Герой
Цель
Проблема / Слабость
Злодей
Решение
Цена
Мораль
МОРАЛЬ
Если вы сделаете Х
то будет Y
иначе будет Z
Герой
Цель
Проблема
Злодей
Решение
Цена
Мораль

Я сам? Клиент? Клиент клиента?
Чего хочет герой?
Почему он не может без этого жить?
Кто ему мешает?
В чем инсайт?
Какова цена решения?
В чем призыв к действию?
?

Что такое

«ИСТОРИЯ»
История — 

путешествие в
поисках истины.

ПИТЕР ДАНН
Сценарист и писатель
МОТИВАЦИЯ:
ЗАЧЕМ?
ПОЧЕМУ?
!

ПРЕЗЕНТАЦИИ
НЕЛЬЗЯ

делать

ИЗ_ПОД ПАЛКИ
?

※

ЧЕГО
Я
ХОЧУ

※
?
ЧТО

※

ИМ

НУЖНО

※
ВЫ

ИМ


ХОТИТЕ

НУЖНО
Вообще говоря, сценаристы
должны писать то, что их
«зажигает», а не то что
кажется им коммерческим
сейчас.

ДЭВИД ФРЕНДЛИ
Продюсер

K
ALEXEI KAPTEREV
www.kapterev.com

License: CC, Attribution, Share Alike | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/

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  • 18. ! ВНИМАНИЕ ОЧЕ НЬ легко ПОТЕРЯТЬ и все остальное уже не важно
  • 21.
  • 22. После презентации инженера: 
 Зачем ты тратишь мою жизнь?!  ДЖЕФФ БЕЗОС CEO Amazon.com
  • 26.
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  • 71.
  • 72. УМЕР МЕЛЬНИК 1-й СЫН 2-й СЫН 3-й СЫН / КОТ РУКАВИЦЫ КОРОЛЬ КРОЛИК КУРОПАТКА ОПЕРАЦИЯ «МК» «ВОРЫ» ПРИНЦЕССА ЖНЕЦЫ КОСЦЫ ЛЮДОЕД ЗАМОК ЛЕВ МЫШЬ КОРОЛЬ 3-Й СЫН+ПРИНЦЕССА=$
 КОТ
  • 75.
  • 76. The most striking thing about the 17-inch PowerBook, after the screen itself, is how brilliantly Apple managed to shrink the size of the machine built around that big display. Sure, the PowerBook is an unusually wide 15.4 inches, but itis only one inch thick. Yet, it feels solid as a rock. Itis just 10.2 inches deep and weighs only 6.8 pounds. To get an idea of how sleek those dimensions are, compare the new PowerBook with another brand-new laptop, Dell’s Latitude D800. This model also boasts a widescreen display, measuring 15.4 inches diagonally. But, even though the Dell has a significantly smaller screen, it looks like a whale next to the 17-inch PowerBook. — Walt Mossberg, the Wall Street Journal
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 81. Music
  • 82.
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85.
  • 86.
  • 87.
  • 91.
  • 94. Can anyone top that?
  • 96.
  • 97. 10Gb 15Gb 30Gb 2500 songs 3700 songs 7500 songs Dock, Case, Remote 299 $ 399 $ 499 $
  • 99.
  • 100. AAC
  • 102.
  • 105. 1 Vast selection 2 Unlimited CD burning 3 Unlimited MP3 players 4 Unlimited computers 5 Free
  • 106. 6 Unreliable downloads 7 Unreliable encoding 8 No previews 9 No album cover art 10 It’s stealing
  • 109. PressPlay “You can play your downloaded songs as long as your membership is active.”
  • 110. RHAPSODY “Only subscribers to the All Access subscription plan at $9.99 per month will get the ability to burn tracks for an additional fee per track.”
  • 111.
  • 113.
  • 114.
  • 115.
  • 116. Buy downloads Just like LP’s, cassettes & CDs
  • 117. Own music Broad set of personal rights
  • 119. 1 Vast selection 2 Unlimited CD burning 3 Unlimited MP3 players 4 Unlimited computers 5 Free
  • 121.
  • 122. " The music business is a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free, and good men die like dogs. There's also a negative side." — Hunter S. Thompson
  • 123.
  • 126. Unlimited CD burns For personal use
  • 127. Unlimited iPods Past, present & future models
  • 128. Play on 3 Macs We download to one you do the rest
  • 133. 1 Vast selection 200,000 songs 2 Unlimited CD burning 3 Unlimited MP3 players iPod 4 Unlimited computers Up to 3 Macs 5 Freeper song 99¢
  • 134. 6 Unreliable downloads 7 Unreliable encoding 8 No previews 9 No album cover art 10 It’s stealing
  • 135. You never find one song – 
 you find 50 or 60 songs
  • 136. The download is slow as paralysis, 
 then it just craps out halfway through
  • 137. After 15 minutes you finally succeed 
 in getting a clean version of the song
  • 138. You spend an hour to get 4 songs 
 that cost $3.96 from Apple
  • 139. You’re working for 
 under minimum wage
  • 140. You’re stealing – it’s best not to mess with Karma
  • 141. 6 Unreliable downloads 7 Unreliable encoding 8 No previews 9 No album cover art 10 It’s stealing
  • 142.
  • 144. AAC at 128 kbps
  • 147. 6 Unreliable downloads Fast, reliable downloads 7 Unreliable encoding Pristine encoding 8 No previews Preview for every song 9 No album cover art Album cover art 10 It’s stealing Good Karma
  • 148. 1 200,000 songs 2 Unlimited CD burning 3 Unlimited iPods players 4 Up to 3 Macs 5 99¢ per song
  • 149. Beyond
  • 150.
  • 154. Search
  • 155. Browse
  • 159.
  • 164. Play on 3 Macs
  • 169.
  • 170. Deliver oceans of bits fast and reliably Process millions 
 1-Click of transactions Integrate with 
 popular jukebox Work seamlessly with iPods
  • 172. U.S. Only To start with…
  • 173. Today
  • 179. End of the year
  • 180. Video & TV ads 15 minutes
  • 182.
  • 183. UNNOVATIONS POWERBOOK SOFTWARE MUSIC RIP.MIX.BURN ITUNES IPOD GRAMMY LISTEN IPOD CAN ANYONE TOP THAT? PRICES MANAGE ITUNES 4 THINGS ACQUIRE NAPSTER 5 GOOD THINGS 5 BAD THINGS ITUNES STORE 4+ GOOD THINGS 5 EVEN BETTER THINGS 4 THINGS BETTER STILL ONLY APPLE TODAY ETC
  • 184.
  • 187. МОРАЛЬ Если вы сделаете Х то будет Y иначе будет Z
  • 188. The U.S. Army Afghanistan & Iraq 2009

  • 189. Dynamic Planning for COIN in Afghanistan
  • 190. Potential Fractiousness of Society Support for Insurgency Neutral Populace COIN operations must accomplish three tasks simultaneously: • Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral disposition. • Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a supportive disposition. • Retain supportive individuals. These operations are conducted in an environment where tensions and hostilities between groups may destabilize a society and provide opportunities for insurgents • This environment may suggest courses of action aimed at reinforcing or widening seams Support for HN Government
  • 191. • An increase in Coalition funding will influence economic investment and development. Coalition Funding • A strengthened economy will influence movement from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups toward the supportive group. Economic Investment Potential Fractiousness of Society Support for Insurgency Neutral Populace Economic Development Support for HN Government
  • 192. Developing and Restoring Essential Services Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services Coalition Funding Satisfaction with Essential Services Economic Investment Expectations for Essential Services Time to Develop Essential Services Potential Fractiousness of Society Support for Insurgency • An increase in Coalition funding will significantly impact the restoration of essential services. • Improvements in the provision of essential services will influence movement from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups toward the supportive group. Neutral Populace Economic Development Support for HN Government
  • 193. Developing and Restoring Essential Services Breakdown of Essential Services Expectations for Essential Services Essential Services Time to Develop Essential Services Satisfaction with Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness Support for Insurgency Governance Potential Fractiousness of Society • Send a positive, credible message of success to the populace. • Provide an environment that enhances stable employment of the workforce. • Persuade insurgents and neutrals to consider becoming supporters. Economic Investment Economic Development Neutral Populace Support for HN Government Available Workforce Perceived Security A government that is established, recognized, and that maintains a secure environment is in a position to Time to Develop Governance Coalition Funding External Material Support Insurgent Acts of Violence
  • 194. Developing and Restoring Essential Services Breakdown of Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness Impact of Illegitimate Actions Appropriate Mix of Effort and Use of Force Individual Competence, Judgment, and Ability to Execute Appropriate Strategic Emphasis Insurgent to Force Density Ratio significant impacts on • The Expectations for restoration of essential services. Economic Investment Essential Services Governance • The populace’s perception of security. Essential Services Time to Develop Essential Services Coalition An appropriate force mix, and correct operational Satisfaction with Funding Time to Develop Essential Services tempo, timing, and synchronization will have very Governance Understanding and Knowledge of Social Structures Support for Insurgency • The Potential Government’s and COIN forces’ credibility in their communications efforts with the populace. Fractiousness Economic of Society Development Neutral Populace Support for HN Government Available Workforce Perceived Security External Material Support Insurgent Acts of Violence Total Force Density Coalition Force Density Information Time to Develop HN Security Forces Host Nation Security Forces Host Nation Force Density
  • 195. Developing and Restoring Essential Services Time to Develop Essential Services Satisfaction with Essential Services Breakdown of Essential Services Expectations for Essential Services Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness Impact of Illegitimate Actions Appropriate Mix of Effort and Use of Force Insurgent to Force Density Ratio Understanding and Knowledge of Social Structures Time to Develop Governance Economic Investment Governance Potential Fractiousness of Society Support for Insurgency Economic Development Neutral Populace Support for HN Government Available Workforce Perceived Security Individual Competence, Judgment, and Ability to Execute Appropriate Strategic Emphasis Coalition Funding External Material Support Insurgent Acts of Violence Total Force Density Coalition Force Density The Logical Lines of Operations from FM 3-24 Information Time to Develop HN Security Forces Host Nation Security Forces Host Nation Force Density
  • 196. Developing and Restoring Essential Services Breakdown of Essential Services Expectations for Essential Services Essential Services Time to Develop Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness Impact of Illegitimate Actions Support for Insurgency Appropriate Mix of Effort and Use of Force Individual Competence, Judgment, and Ability to Execute Appropriate Strategic Emphasis Insurgent to Force Density Ratio Satisfaction with Essential Services Understanding and Knowledge of Social Structures Time to Develop Governance Economic Investment Governance Potential Fractiousness of Society Economic Development Neutral Populace Support for HN Government Available Workforce Perceived Security External Material Support Insurgent Acts of Violence Total Force Density Coalition Force Density The Basic Information Ops Loop Coalition Funding Information Time to Develop HN Security Forces Host Nation Security Forces Host Nation Force Density
  • 197. Popular Support – Sympathizers and Active Supporters Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Govt vs Insurgents Population Actively Supporting Gov’t & SF Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR SUPPORT © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 9 Neutral/On the Fence Potential Attractiveness of Govt vs. Insurgent Path Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Population Actively Supporting Insurgency
  • 198. Population Conditions, Beliefs, & Structures Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Insurgents Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’t and CF Perception of Insurgent Strength and Intent Fear of Ins. Attack, Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Perception of Gov’t Strength and Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Perceived Security Page 10 Expectations for Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment
  • 199. Population Conditions, Beliefs, & Structures Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov t & Coalition Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent POPULATION CONDITIONS & BELIEFS Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Perceived Security Page 11 Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Govt vs Insurgents Perception Of Govt Strength & Intent Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR POPULAR SUPPORT Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Neutral/On the Fence Potential Attractiveness of Gov t vs. Insurgent Path Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Population Actively Supporting Insurgency
  • 200. Insurgent Capacity, Outside Support/ Enablement of Insurgents, Narcotics Insurgent Damages & Casualties Ins Strategic Comm/IO & Affiliation w/ Population Fear of Gov’t / ANSF / Coalition Repercussions Territory Not Under Gov’t Control Havens / Ability to 1 Operate Insurgent Insurgent Coordination Leadership Offensives & Among Ins Factions Training, Skill Presence & Exper (Clear & Hold) Ins Provision of Gov’t & Services Ins Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Feedback Loop Examples: 1. Insurgent expansion: Insurgent factions with havens as base can expand their presence and influence, further increasing their operating base territory. (Permissive population contribution to Havens / Ability to Operate input from separate sector). 2. Alignment of criminal and insurgent interests: Weakly governed / policed territory may support insurgents, terrorists and criminals alike. Often interests align and lines blur with criminal activity and funding contributing to insurgent operations and expansion, further increasing the weakly governed terrority and © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 12 Outside Support / Enablement of Ins. 2 Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Insurgent Terrain Advantage Insurgent Recruiting, Retention, Manpower, & ISR Likelihood of Crime/ Violence/ Ins Support for Payment Criminal/ Trafficking Capability & Coercion Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Illegit Agric Production Trade & Employment Terrain Harshness & Breadth
  • 201. Insurgent Capacity, Outside Support/ Enablement of Insurgents, Narcotics Ins. Damages & Casualties OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO INSURGENT FACTIONS Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Havens / Ability to Operate Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun /IO & Affiliation w/ Population Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov t & Coalition Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov ’t Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Perception Of Gov t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Perceived Security Page 13 Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF INSURGENTS Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Govt vs Insurgents Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR POPULAR SUPPORT SUPPORT Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent POPULATION POPULATION CONDITIONS CONDITIONS & BELIEFS & BELIEFS Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Neutral/On the Fence Potential Attractiveness of Gov t vs. Insurgent Path Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Terrain Harshness & Breadth NARCOTICS Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels IllegitAgric Production, Trade & Employment
  • 202. Infrastructure, Services, & Economy Feedback Loop Examples: 1. Agricultural production and markets: Investment and spending enables agricultural production. Production can boost economic activity and trade which feeds back into private sector re-investment. (Public policy and investment in infrastructure, workforce, financial markets, etc helps start / maintain private sector momentum.) 2. Making legit agriculture more attractive: Improved legit agricultural opportunities may make illegit agricultural options less attractive which further increases legit agricultural production, trade, and markets. (Other inputs to decisions related to legit vs illegit from other sectors.) Legit Agric Production 2 Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Legit Other Production & Services Non-Agric Fraction of Workforce and Agric. Legit vs Illegit Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) Legit vs Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity 1 Infr. Services, Econ, Policy & Execution/ Perceived Fairness © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Private Sector Capital Mgmt, Investment & Spending Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Page 14 Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment
  • 203. Infrastructure, Services, & Economy Ins. Damages & Casualties OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO INSURGENT TO INSURGENT FACTIONS FACTIONS Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Havens / Ability to Operate Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov t & Coalition Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Perception Of Gov t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Perceived Security © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 15 INSURGENTS Ties to Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Govt vs Insurgents Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR POPULAR SUPPORT SUPPORT Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr, Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent POPULATION POPULATION CONDITIONS CONDITIONS & BELIEFS & BELIEFS Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Neutral/On the Fence NARCOTICS Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov t vs. Insurgent Path Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Terrain Harshness & Breadth Legit Agric Private Sector Production Workforce Skill & Avail Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs.Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Legit Other Production Services (SWET, & Services Non- Agric Healthcare, Education) INFRASTRUCTURE, SERVICES & ECONOMY Ability to Move Private Sector People Capital Mgmt., & Goods Investment & Rapidly Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment
  • 204. Governance – Central Government Development & Capacity; Engagement / Empowerment of Tribal Governance; Overall Governance Capacity & Impacts Gov’t Security Policy Quality & Investment Central Gov’t Institutional & Execution Capacity Gov’t Funding Adequacy Gov’t Training, Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Gov’t Workforce Skill & Avail Gov’t Professionalism, Policy Quality & Fairness Transparency of Gov’t Processes & Investments Gov’t Integration of Local Tribal Structures Gov’t / ANSF StratCom/IO Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins ’ ’ Overall Gov’t Reach, Execution, Capacity & Investment Gov’t/Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Relative Message Quality Gov’t vs Ins Tax Revenues Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures & Beliefs Feedback Loop Example: Informal learning and mentoring: Formal training and vetting (enabled by institutional capacity) can improve and maintain Government workforce skill and professionalism. However, as you build a skilled, professional workforce base and culture, informal learning and expectations for behavior is also very powerful (and can contribute to institutional development as well…another key loop) © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 16
  • 205. Governance – Central Government Development & Capacity; Engagement / Empowerment of Tribal Governance; Overall Governance Capacity & Impacts Ins. Damages & Casualties OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO INSURGENT TO INSURGENT FACTIONS FACTIONS Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Havens / Ability to Operate Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity Gov't Funding Adequacy Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail OVERALL GOVERNMENT CAPACITY Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun / IO Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Transparency of Gov’t Gov't Overall Gov't Processes & Professionalism Reach, Investments Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment Gov't/ Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Relative Message Quality Gov’t ’ Ins. vs Tax Revenues POPULATION POPULATION CONDITIONS CONDITIONS & BELIEFS & BELIEFS Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Perception Of Gov t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Perceived Security © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 17 INSURGENTS Ties to Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Govt vs Insurgents Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR POPULAR SUPPORT SUPPORT Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr, Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment TRIBAL GOVERNANCE Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov t & Coalition Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov t vs. Insurgent Path Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs. Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) INFRASTRUCTURE, SERVICES & & SERVICES ECONOMY ECONOMY Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Terrain Harshness & Breadth Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric NARCOTICS Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Private Sector Capital Mgmt., Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment
  • 206. Coalition Resources, Actions, & Impacts and Homeland Support Coalition Knowledge & Understanding of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition COIN Support Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force Coalition Avg COIN Experienc e & Skill Coalition Execution Capacity & Priorities Resource Levels (Mil. & Civ. Forces and Levels) Coalition StratComm/IO US Domestic Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support US Gov’t Support for Breadth of Operation Coalition & Support Coalition Dev. Ops-ANSF Advisory & Aid Coalition Dev. Ops-Gov’t Advisory & Aid Coalition Visibility to Population Western Affiliation Backlash Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Afghan Methods US Domestic/ Int’l StratComm & Diplomacy Media Sensationalism Bias © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan Coalition Dev. OpsInfrastructure, Services, Econ Advisory & Aid Page 18 Provide Humanitarian Relief
  • 207. Coalition Resources, Actions, & Impacts and Homeland Support Ins. Damages & Casualties Coalition Knowledge & Underst of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition COIN Support Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Transparency of Gov’t Processes & Investments US Domestic/ Int'l Strategic Commun . & Diplomacy COALITION Media Sensationalism Bias DOMESTIC SUPPORT Coalition Dev.OpsInfrastructure, Services, Econ. Advisory & Aid Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. OVERALL OVERALL GOVERNMENT CAPACITY CAPACITY Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment Gov't/ Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population Coalition Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Gov’t Advisory Afghan Methods & Aid Breadth of US Domestic Coalition & Support Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Western Affiliation Backlash Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement TRIBAL TRIBAL GOVERNANCE Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov t & Coalition Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Perception Of Gov t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Perceived Security Page 19 Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion INSURGENTS Ties to Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Govt vs Insurgents Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR POPULAR SUPPORT SUPPORT Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr, Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Average Connectedness of Population Tax Revenues Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t POPULATION POPULATION CONDITIONS CONDITIONS & BELIEFS & BELIEFS Provide Humanitarian Relief © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Coalition Visibility to Population Gov't Funding Adequacy Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) Coalition Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid COALITION CAPACITY & PRIORITIES US Gov't Support for Operation Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Havens / Ability to Operate Coalition Coalition Avg COIN Experience Execution Capacity & & Skill Priorities Resource Coalition Levels Strategic (Mil. & Civ. Commun ./IO Forces, Aid Levels) OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO INSURGENT TO INSURGENT FACTIONS FACTIONS Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov t vs. Insurgent Path Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Duration of Operation Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs. Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) INFRASTRUCTURE, SERVICES & & SERVICES ECONOMY ECONOMY Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Terrain Harshness & Breadth Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric NARCOTICS Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Private Sector Capital Mgmt., Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment
  • 208. ANSF Development, Capacity & Impacts – Tactical & Institutional ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ISR / Open Source Ops ANSF & Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Capacity 1 ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Funding Adequacy 2 1 Total Security Force Capacity & focus ANSF Unit Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Targeted Strikes Sweep Ops (Clear) Policing & Security Ops (Hold) ANSF Avg Professionalism, Skill, Discipline & Morale ANSF Appropriate Use of Force ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Feedback Loop Examples: 1. ANSF success and informal momentum: ANSF professionalism and skill contributes to tactical capacity which enables effective operations. Success and experience feeds back into professionalism, skill and morale which further reinforces both leadership & tactical capacity and recruiting / retention. 2. ANSF institutional capacity: Institutional capacity and processes enable manpower, formal training, logistics, planning & budgeting, etc that reinforce informal gains support ANSF capacity over time. © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 20 Counter Narcotics /Crime Ops
  • 209. ANSF Development, Capacity & Impacts – Tactical & Institutional ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ANSF TACTICAL Coalition Knowledge & Underst of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition Avg COIN Experience & Skill Coalition COIN Support Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan COALITION COALITION CAPACITY & CAPACITY & PRIORITIES PRIORITIES Resource Coalition Levels Strategic (Mil. & Civ. Commun./IO Forces, Aid Levels) US Domestic Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support ANSF Coalition Funding Visibility to Adequacy Population Coalition Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Gov’t Advisory Afghan Methods & Aid Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity US Gov't Support for Operation Gov't Funding Adequacy Breadth of Coalition & Support Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Transparency of Gov’t Processes & Investments US Domestic/ Int'l Strategic Commun. & Diplomacy Infrastructure, Services, Econ. Advisory & Aid Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail Total Security Force Capacity & Focus Sweep Ops (Clear) Ins. Damages & Casualties Policing & Security Ops (Hold) ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale ANSF Training & Mentoring Targeted Strikes ANSF Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment OVERALL OVERALL GOVERNMENT CAPACITY CAPACITY Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Western Affiliation Backlash Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement TRIBAL TRIBAL GOVERNANCE Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov t & Coalition Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Perception Of Gov t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Perceived Security Page 21 Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion INSURGENTS Ties to Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Govt vs Insurgents Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR POPULAR SUPPORT SUPPORT Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr, Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Counter Narcotics/ Crime Ops Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Provide Humanitarian Relief © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t POPULATION POPULATION CONDITIONS CONDITIONS & BELIEFS & BELIEFS Average Connectedness of Population Tax Revenues Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) ANSF Appropriate Use of Force R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness OUTSIDE SUPPORT OUTSIDE SUPPORT TOTO INSURGENT INSURGENT FACTIONS FACTIONS Havens / Ability to Operate ANSF INSTITUTIONAL Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment COALITION DOMESTIC Gov't/ Contractor SUPPORT Corruption & Coalition SUPPORT Tribal Favoritism Dev.Ops- Media Sensationalism Bias ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity ANSF Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Coalition Capacity Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid Coalition Execution Capacity & Priorities ISR / Open Source Ops Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov t vs. Insurgent Path Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Duration of Operation Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs. Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) INFRASTRUCTURE, SERVICES & & SERVICES ECONOMY ECONOMY Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Terrain Harshness & Breadth Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric NARCOTICS Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Private Sector Capital Mgmt., Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment
  • 210. Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics = ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ANSF TACTICAL Coalition Knowledge & Underst . of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition ‘COIN Support ’ Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan COALITION CAPACITY & PRIORITIES Resource Coalition Levels Strategic (Mil. & Civ. Commun ./IO Forces, Aid Levels) ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Coalition Funding Visibility to Adequacy Population CENTRAL Gov't GOV’T Funding Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity Adequacy Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Breadth of US Domestic Coalition & Support Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail COALITION Media Sensationalism Bias DOMESTIC SUPPORT Coalition Dev.OpsInfrastructure, Services, Econ. Advisory & Aid Gov't/ Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Targeted Strikes Sweep Ops (Clear) Ins. Damages & Casualties Havens / Ability to Operate ANSF Appropriate Use of Force Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Relative Message Quality Gov’t ’ Ins. vs OVERALL GOVERNMENT CAPACITY Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun / IO Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Perceived Damages & Use of Force Ins. Targeted by Ins. Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov ’t Ins. Strategic Commun /IO & Affiliation w/ Population R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Western Affiliation Backlash Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Recognition/ TRIBAL Engagement to Integrate Rivalry GOVERNANCE Ethnic/Tribal Tribal Structures& Beliefs Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition Tax Revenues Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Gov vs ’t Insurgents Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t POPULAR SUPPORT Neutral/On the Fence NARCOTICS Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov vs. ’t Insurgent Path Perceived Security Satisfaction w/ Gains in Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains & Sustainment In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr, Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Population Actively Supporting Insurgency IllegitAgric Production, Trade & Employment Terrain Harshness & Breadth Duration of Operation Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Provide Humanitarian Relief Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. INSURGENTS Ties to Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Population Actively Supporting Gov’t & SF Counter Narcotics/ Crime Ops Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent POPULATION CONDITIONS & BELIEFS Average Connectedness of Population Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) ANSF INSTITUTIONAL ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO INSURGENT FACTIONS Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Policing & Security Ops (Hold) ANSF Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Transparency of Gov’t Gov't Overall Gov't Processes & Professionalism Reach, Investments Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment US Domestic/ Int'l Strategic Commun . & Diplomacy Total Security Force Capacity & Focus ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale Coalition Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Gov’t Advisory Afghan Methods & Aid US Gov't Support for Operation ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity ANSF Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Coalition Capacity Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid Coalition Coalition Avg COIN Experience Execution Capacity & & Skill Priorities ISR / Open Source Ops Population/Popular Support Infrastructure, Economy, & Services Government Afghanistan Security Forces Insurgents Crime and Narcotics Coalition Forces & Actions Physical Environment Significant Delay Legit Agric Private Sector Production Workforce Skill & Avail Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs.Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Legit Other Production Services (SWET, & Services Non- Agric Healthcare, Education) INFRASTRUCTURE, SERVICES & ECONOMY Ability to Move Private Sector People Capital Mgmt., & Goods Investment & Rapidly Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment WORKING DRAFT – V3 © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 22
  • 211. Key Feedback Loop: Securing and Empowering the Population ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ISR / Open Source Ops 1 2 ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan ANSF Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Coalition Capacity Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid ANSF Coalition Funding Visibility to Adequacy Population alition Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of ov’t visory Afghan Methods Aid Total Security Force Capacity & Focus ANSF Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Targeted Strikes Sweep Ops (Clear) Ins. Damages & Casualties Policing & Security Ops (Hold) Havens / Ability to Operate Territory Not Under Gov ’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) ANSF Appropriate Use of Force Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition Fear is a key mechanism for insurgent factions to prevent the population from engaging and Gov't/ANSF supporting the actively Strategic Central Gov't Commun/ Government. Institutional & IO Execution Relative WOM Securing populated territory (clear and hold ops) can reduce Capacity Message Relative t Amplification insurgent ability to target and intimidateMessagepopulation such the ng Gov’t vs Ins Impact Gov’t Gov't acy that Gov’t sympathizersofare willing to be vs Ins active supporters. Integration Gov't Training Western Local Tribal Mentoring, HUMINT: The population will beAffiliation willing to provide intel more Structures Gov't Perception of Vetting, and Backlash Workforce Coalition Intent Hiring if they Skill &not fear insurgent repercussions. do Avail & Commitment ANA & ANP Development: ANSF recruiting and development sparency Gov’t Gov't Overall Gov't facilitated Reach,the expansion Strength of by of secure regions. (ANA and cesses & isProfessionalism Religious stments ANP leaders, families, facilities, etc less likely to be targeted or Policy Quality Execution Ideology & & Fairness Capacity & Tribal overrun. Investment Ability to Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population Relative Message Quality Gov’t ’vs Ins. Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Reconcile Page 23 Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov ’t Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Neutral/On the Fence S w Potential Attractiveness of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Path Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security Services Infrastructure Dev Adequacy Private Workf Skill &
  • 212. Key Feedback Loop: Government Engagement and Integration of Tribal Governance han ANSF Institutional & Execution tion Capacity OpsSF sory Aid Appropriate Use of Force ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Training, Skill & Experience & Pakistan) Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Critical for the Government to recognize andPerceived the make Gov't Damages/Use of effort toSecurity engage existing tribal Relative structures andForce by Policy Gov’ t & Coalition Perception of Quality & Message Insurgent Governance if they are to be accepted by the population. Investment Quality Strength & alition/Homeland Gov’t ’vs Ins. Acceptance of Ties to local governance can gain popular support and Intent fghan Methods rapidly expand the Government’s overall capacity and Gov't/ANSF Strategic ‘reach’ which further increases their capacity and ability Central Gov't Commun/ Institutional & IO to engage the population. Execution Fear of Ins. Relative WOM ANSF Coalition Funding sibility to Adequacy opulation Capacity Training oring, g, and ring Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs v't/ ractor ption & avoritism Western Affiliation Backlash Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Provide Humanitarian Relief © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Population Actively Supporting Gov’t & SF Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Attack/ Repercussions Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Path Criminal/ Trafficking Capability & Coercion Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Perceived Security Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr, Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Page 24 Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly N & Illegit A Produc Trad Employ Terrain Harshness & Breadth Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov ’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Tax Revenues Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Retention, Manpower & ISR Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs Rela Econo Opport Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) Private Sector Capital Mgmt., Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment
  • 213. Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – SECURITY Population/Popular Support Infrastructure, Economy, & Services Government Afghanistan Security Forces Insurgents Crime and Narcotics Coalition Forces & Actions Physical Environment ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ISR / Open Source Ops Coalition Knowledge & Underst. of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition Avg COIN Experience & Skill Coalition ‘ COIN Support’ Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan ANSF Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Coalition Capacity Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid Coalition Execution Capacity & Priorities ANSF Coalition Funding Visibility to Adequacy Population Resource Coalition Levels Strategic (Military Commun./IO Forces, Civilian Forces, Aid Levels) Coalition Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Gov’t Advisory Afghan Methods & Aid US Domestic Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support Gov't Funding Adequacy Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Breadth of Coalition & Support Transparency of Gov’t Processes & Investments US Domestic/ Int'l Strategic Commun. & Diplomacy Media Sensationalism Bias Coalition Dev.OpsInfrastructure, Services, Econ. Advisory & Aid Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Havens / Ability to Operate Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Western Affiliation Backlash Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Path Likelihood of Active Ins. Support for Payment Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Perceived Security Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr., Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Provide Humanitarian Relief Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Terrain Harshness & Breadth Duration of Operation Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Tax Revenues Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment Gov't/ Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Ins. Damages & Casualties ANSF Appropriate Use of Force ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Counter- Narcotics/ Crime Ops Policing & Security Ops (Hold) ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail Targeted Strikes Sweep Ops (Clear) ANSF Capacity & Priorities Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity US Gov't Support for Operation Total Security Force Capacity & Focus Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs. Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) Private Sector Capital Management, Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment WORKING DRAFT © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 26
  • 214. Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – GOVERNANCE Population/Popular Support Infrastructure, Economy, & Services Government Afghanistan Security Forces Insurgents Crime and Narcotics Coalition Forces & Actions Physical Environment ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ISR / Open Source Ops Coalition Knowledge & Underst. of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition Avg COIN Experience & Skill Coalition ‘ COIN Support’ Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan ANSF Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Coalition Capacity Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid Coalition Execution Capacity & Priorities ANSF Coalition Funding Visibility to Adequacy Population Resource Coalition Levels Strategic (Mil. & Civ. Commun./IO Forces, Aid Levels) Coalition Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Gov’t Advisory Afghan Methods & Aid US Domestic Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support Gov't Funding Adequacy Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Breadth of Coalition & Support Transparency of Gov’t Processes & Investments US Domestic/ Int'l Strategic Commun. & Diplomacy Media Sensationalism Bias Coalition Dev.OpsInfrastructure, Services, Econ. Advisory & Aid Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail WORKING DRAFT Ins. Damages & Casualties Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Western Affiliation Backlash Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Tax Revenues Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Path Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Perceived Security Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr., Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Provide Humanitarian Relief Page 27 Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Terrain Harshness & Breadth Duration of Operation Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Reconciliation Effectiveness © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Havens / Ability to Operate ANSF Appropriate Use of Force ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Counter- Narcotics/ Crime Ops Policing & Security Ops (Hold) ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment Gov't/ Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Targeted Strikes Sweep Ops (Clear) ANSF Capacity & Priorities Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity US Gov't Support for Operation Total Security Force Capacity & Focus Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs. Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) Private Sector Capital Mgmt., Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment
  • 215. Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – DEVELOPMENT Population/Popular Support Infrastructure, Economy, & Services Government Afghanistan Security Forces Insurgents Crime and Narcotics Coalition Forces & Actions Physical Environment ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ISR / Open Source Ops Coalition Knowledge & Underst. of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition Avg COIN Experience & Skill Coalition ‘ COIN Support’ Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan ANSF Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Coalition Capacity Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid Coalition Execution Capacity & Priorities ANSF Coalition Funding Visibility to Adequacy Population Resource Coalition Levels Strategic (Mil. & Civ. Commun./IO Forces, Aid Levels) Coalition Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Gov’t Advisory Afghan Methods & Aid US Domestic Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support Gov't Funding Adequacy Breadth of Coalition & Support Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Transparency of Gov’t Processes & Investments US Domestic/ Int'l Strategic Commun. & Diplomacy Media Sensationalism Bias Coalition Dev.OpsInfrastructure, Services, Econ. Advisory & Aid Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail Ins. Damages & Casualties Fear of Gov’ t/ANSF/ Coalition Repercussions Havens / Ability to Operate Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) ANSF Appropriate Use of Force ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Counter- Narcotics/ Crime Ops Policing & Security Ops (Hold) ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition Western Affiliation Backlash Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Insurgent Terrain Insurgent Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ /Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Path Likelihood of Crime/Violence /Ins. Support for Payment Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Perceived Security Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr., Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Provide Humanitarian Relief Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Terrain Harshness & Breadth Duration of Operation Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Tax Revenues Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Outside Support/ Enablement of Ins. Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment Gov't/ Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Targeted Strikes Sweep Ops (Clear) ANSF Capacity & Priorities Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity US Gov't Support for Operation Total Security Force Capacity & Focus Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs. Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) Private Sector Capital Mgmt., Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment WORKING DRAFT © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Page 28
  • 216. Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – Claim the Information Initiative Message availability is constrained by low “average connectedness” (rural populations spread across harsh terrain, low literacy rates, limited radio) and most message propagation / amplification is by word of mouth (WOM). WOM Counter- Narcotics/ Targeted Crime Strikes tends to Damages negative messages more strongly than positive, but also Ops tends to Ins. amplify Fear of Sweep Ops & Casualties Gov’ t/ANSF/ (Clear) be biased towards current sentiments. Coalition ANSF & Coalition Damages/ Casualties ISR / Open Source Ops Coalition Knowledge & Underst. of Social Structures Duration of Operation Coalition Avg COIN Experience & Skill Coalition ‘ COIN Support’ Strategy & Unity Coalition Appropriate Balance of Effort & Force ANSF Unit Leadership & Tactical Capacity Coalition Adjustment of Approach to Fit Afghan ANSF Manpower Recruiting & Retention ANSF Institutional & Execution Coalition Capacity Dev. OpsANSF Advisory & Aid Coalition Execution Capacity & Priorities ANSF Coalition Funding Visibility to Adequacy Population Resource Coalition Levels Strategic (Military Commun./IO Forces, Civilian Forces, Aid Levels) Coalition Dev. Ops- Coalition/Homeland Acceptance of Gov’t Advisory Afghan Methods & Aid US Domestic Perceived Cost/Benefit & Support Gov't Funding Adequacy Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Breadth of Coalition & Support Transparency of Gov’t Processes & Investments US Domestic/ Int'l Strategic Commun. & Diplomacy Media Sensationalism Bias Coalition Dev.OpsInfrastructure, Services, Econ. Advisory & Aid Repercussions Outside Havens / Government Support/ “Western affiliation backlash” may undermineAbility to Enablement messages if they are Operate of Ins. seen as puppets who lack the strength to deliver progress or have taken an Coordination Ins. Among Ins. Offensives & Insurgent overly Western Not Territory posture Factions Presence Terrain Ins. Insurgent Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) (Clear & Hold) Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Western Affiliation Backlash Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Perceived Security Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Infr., Services, Econ. Policy & Execution /Perceived Fairness Provide Humanitarian Relief = Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Funding & Material Support to Insurgents Relative Popular Support/ Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Population Sympathizing w/ Insurgents Potential Attractiveness of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Path Likelihood of Active Ins. Support for Payment Population Actively Supporting Insurgency Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Private Sector Workforce Skill & Avail Legit Other Production & Services Non- Agric Ability to Move People & Goods Rapidly Narcotics & Criminal Activity Levels Illegit Agric Production, Trade & Employment Terrain Harshness & Breadth Duration of Operation Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Tax Revenues Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Advantage Recruiting, Retention, Manpower Criminal/ & ISR Trafficking Capability & Coercion Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment Population/Popular Support Infrastructure, Economy, & Services Government Afghanistan Security Forces Insurgents Crime and Narcotics Coalition Forces & Actions Physical Environment © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 ANSF Appropriate Use of Force ANSF Training & Mentoring Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail Gov't/ Contractor Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Policing & Security Ops (Hold) ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity US Gov't Support for Operation Total Security Force Capacity & Focus ANSF Capacity & Priorities ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism Claim the Information Initiative: “Message” quality and availability impact who is relatively more effective in influencing the population. Government message quality has been stronger relative to insurgent factions (who have typically not made the effort or been effective in aligning with civilian beliefs), but lack of progress has undermined message credibility. Fraction of Workforce And Agric. Legit vs Illegit Legit Agric Production Population Basic Needs Service Levels & Employment Legit vs. Illegit Relative Economic Opportunity Civilian Services (SWET, Healthcare, Education) Private Sector Capital Management, Investment & Spending Legit Economic Activity, Trade & Employment WORKING DRAFT Significant Delay Page 29
  • 217. Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – Claim the Information Initiative & Morale h n ANSF Institutional & Execution n Capacity s- ANSF Training & Mentoring ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism y ANSF alition Funding bility to Adequacy ulation on/Homeland ceptance of an Methods Gov't Workforce Skill & Avail Gov't Integration of Local Tribal Structures Western Affiliation Backlash Relative Message Impact Gov’t vs Ins Strength of Religious Ideology & Tribal Structures Cultural Erosion/ Displacement Recognition/ Engagement to Integrate Tribal Structures& Beliefs Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition Provide Humanitarian Relief Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Relative Popular Support/ Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Neutral/On the Fence Potential Attractiveness of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Path Fun Ma Sup Insu Popu Sympa w/ Insu T Ha & Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Tax Revenues © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Gov't Overall Gov't Professionalism Reach, Policy Quality Execution & Fairness Capacity & Investment tor on & oritism Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Control (Afghan & Pakistan) Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness Gov't Security Policy Quality & Investment Central Gov't Institutional & Execution Capacity ining ng, and g ANSF Appropriate Use of Force Claim the Information Initiative: “Message” quality and Private Sector Satisfaction availability impact who is relatively more effective in influencing Workforce w/ Gains in Infrastructure Skill & Avail the population. Government message quality has been Security, Services Dev. Adequacy & relative strongerEmploymentto Visible Gains factions (who have typically not insurgent & Sustainment In Security, made the effort or been effective in aligning with civilian Services & Employment beliefs), but lack of progress has undermined message Expectations Civilia Legit Other credibility. for Security, Servic Production Services, & & Services (SWE Employment Non- Agric Message availability is constrained by low “average Healthc Perceived Educat Security connectedness” (rural populations spread across harsh terrain, low literacy rates, limited radio) and most to Private Sector Ability message propagation Capital Move / amplification is by word of mouth (WOM). WOM tends to Management, People Infr., Services, Econ. negative messages more strongly than positive, but amplify & Goods Investment & Spending Policy & Execution Rapidly /Perceivedalso tends to be biased towards current sentiments. Fairness “Western affiliation backlash” may undermine Government messages if they are seen as puppets who lack the strength to deliver progress or have taken an overly Western posture Page 30
  • 218. Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics – Population Security p cal ty ANSF Capacity & Priorities ANSF Avg. Professionalism Skill, Discipline, & Morale ANSF Corruption & Tribal Favoritism g Security Ops (Hold) p Havens / Ability to Operate Territory Not Under Gov’t Control (Afghan & Pakistan) ANSF Appropriate Use of Force R.O.L. Policy, Execution & Perceived Fairness ty y & ent Ins. Provision Of Gov’t & Services Perceived Damages & Use of Force by Ins. Ins. Strategic Commun/IO & Affiliation w/ Population Relative Message Quality Gov’ t ’vs Ins. Perceived Damages/Use of Force by Gov’ t & Coalition forces impact perceived security. Insurgents rely targeted “attacks on progress”Strength of to generate fear and intimidation to limit sympathizers moving towards active Religious Ideology & supporters. They often threaten or target civilian and security force Tribal individuals who are visibly supporting the government – the Cultural Erosion/ Structures fear this Displacement generates is powerful in slowing or reversing positive momentum. ecognition/ gagement to In addition to near term security concerns, the population is Ethnic/Tribal Rivalry assessing ‘who will win’ over the Integrate long term by comparing Tribal tructures& perception of Insurgent strength to perception of Government Beliefs strength and also considering perceived Coalition commitment. (A key input to perceived strength is how much of the population lives in region secured by the Government.) They will hesitate to actively support the government if they feel they will fail, particularly if they have been witness to “clear and leave” operations. Fear of Ins. Attack/ Repercussions Relative WOM Message Amplification Gov’t vs Ins Perception of Coalition Intent & Commitment Page 31 Population Actively Supporting Gov’ t & SF Satisfaction w/ Gains in Security, Services & Employment Visible Gains In Security, Services & Employment Expectations for Security, Services, & Employment Perceived Security I f © PA Knowledge Limited 2009 Insurgent Capacity, Priorities & Effectiveness Ties to Narcotics & Other Criminal Funding Relative Popular Support/ Tolerance Gov’t vs Insurgents Neutral/On the Fence Population Sympathizing w/ Gov’t Potential Attractivenes of Gov’t vs. Insurgent Pa Perception Of Gov’t Strength & Intent Ability to Reconcile Religious Ideology, Tribal Structures w/ Gov’t Path Average Connectedness of Population Ins. Targeted Attacks on Progress/ Support for Gov’t Ins. Leadership, Training, Skill & Experience Perception of Insurgent Strength & Intent Gov't/ANSF Strategic Commun/ IO Relative Message Impact Gov’t Population Security: Security is a function of day to day conditions Gov't vs Ins and also perception of ‘who will win’tegrationlonger term: Western over of ocal Tribal Affiliation Structures Actual damages by both the Insurgents and ANSF /Backlash Coalition Coordination Among Ins. Factions Ins. Offensives & Presence (Clear & Hold) Outsid Suppor Enablem of Ins. S i E Infrastructure Dev. Adequacy & Sustainment Priv W Ski Legit Other Production & Services Non-Agric Ability to Move People Private Se Capita Managem Investme
  • 219. How to win in Al Anbar
  • 220. How to Win the War in Al Anbar by CPT Trav HI! This is an American Soldier. We'll call him Joe. Joe wants to win in Al Anbar But sometimes it seems like other people don't share that idea. How can Joe win in Al Anbar? By fighting the insurgents?
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  • 237.
  • 239. Debugging UIWebViews and Websites on iOS Session 600 Timothy Hatcher Safari and WebKit Engineer These are confidential sessions—please refrain from streaming, blogging, or taking pictures
  • 240.
  • 241. ?
  • 242.
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  • 246.
  • 247. FPO
  • 248. FPO
  • 249.
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  • 251.
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  • 254. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 255. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 257.
  • 260.
  • 261. Resource Navigator (⌃1) • Frames and resources • Extra scripts • Anonymous scripts
  • 262.
  • 263. Storage Navigator (⌃2) • Cookies • Local and session storage • Databases and tables • Application cache
  • 264.
  • 265. Instrument Navigator (⌃3) • Timelines Network Requests ■ Layout and Rendering ■ JavaScript and Events • JavaScript profiles ■ • CSS selector profiles
  • 266.
  • 267. Search Navigator (⌃4) • Full text resource search • DOM tree search
  • 268.
  • 269. Issue Navigator (⌃5) • JavaScript exceptions • Console API errors and warnings • HTML and XML parsing issues • Network errors
  • 270.
  • 271. Debug Navigator (⌃6) • Current call stack when paused
  • 272.
  • 273. Breakpoint Navigator (⌃7) • Special exception breakpoints • Current resource breakpoints
  • 274.
  • 275. Log Navigator (⌃8) • Current log with JavaScript console • Previous logs on reload
  • 277. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 278. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 279. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 280. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 281. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 283. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons
  • 284. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons
  • 285. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path
  • 286. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector
  • 287. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector
  • 288. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector
  • 289. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector • Selection path
  • 290. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector • Selection path
  • 291. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector • Selection path
  • 292. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector • Selection path • DOM node locator button
  • 293. Navigation Bar • Sidebar toggle buttons • Back and forward buttons • Content path • Content view selector • Selection path • DOM node locator button
  • 294. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 295. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 297. Quick Console • Auto expanding JavaScript console • Object property completion • Debugger controls
  • 298. Content Browser and Quick Console
  • 301.
  • 302. Resource Details (⌃⇧1) • MIME-type and resource type • Full URL and components • Query parameters • Request and response headers
  • 303.
  • 304. Node Details (⌃⇧2) • Type, name and value • Attributes • DOM properties • Event listeners
  • 305.
  • 306. Style Details (⌃⇧3) • Computed style • Style attribute • HTML attributes • Style rules • Base style rules
  • 307.
  • 308. Appearance Details (⌃⇧4) • Box model Position ■ Margin ■ Border ■ Padding ■ Content ■
  • 309.
  • 310. Application Cache Details • Manifest and frame URLs • Online status
  • 311.
  • 312. Scope Chain Details (⌃⇧5) • Local variables • Closure variables • Catch variables • With properties • Global variables
  • 314.
  • 315. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 316. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 318.
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  • 321. ⌘R
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  • 335. Demo
  • 337. Inspection and Tweaking Summary • Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more!
  • 338. Inspection and Tweaking Summary • Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more! • Tweak without the endless rebuild cycle
  • 339. Inspection and Tweaking Summary • Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more! • Tweak without the endless rebuild cycle • Hover DOM nodes to highlight the CSS boxes
  • 340. Inspection and Tweaking Summary • Finally “View Source” for Safari on iOS—and more! • Tweak without the endless rebuild cycle • Hover DOM nodes to highlight the CSS boxes • Double-click to edit CSS and DOM nodes
  • 341. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 342. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 344.
  • 345. <>
  • 346. <>
  • 347. <>
  • 348. <>
  • 349. <>
  • 350.
  • 351.
  • 352.
  • 353.
  • 354. Demo
  • 356. Performance Analysis Summary • Always test cell network performance
  • 357. Performance Analysis Summary • Always test cell network performance • Minimize the number of resources and large resources
  • 358. Performance Analysis Summary • Always test cell network performance • Minimize the number of resources and large resources • Minify JavaScript and avoid large libraries
  • 359. Performance Analysis Summary • Always test cell network performance • Minimize the number of resources and large resources • Minify JavaScript and avoid large libraries • Use asynchronous or deferred script loading
  • 360. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 361. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 363.
  • 364.
  • 365.
  • 366.
  • 367.
  • 368.
  • 369.
  • 370. Demo
  • 372. Debugging Issues Summary • No longer is “stringByEvaluatingJavaScriptFromString:” a black box
  • 373. Debugging Issues Summary • No longer is “stringByEvaluatingJavaScriptFromString:” a black box • Call functions instead of passing large scripts
  • 374. Debugging Issues Summary • No longer is “stringByEvaluatingJavaScriptFromString:” a black box • Call functions instead of passing large scripts • Evaluate in the Quick Console using the current scope
  • 375. What You’ll Learn • Web Inspector overview • Inspection and tweaking • Performance analysis • Debugging issues
  • 376. More Information Vicki Murley Safari Technologies Evangelist vicki@apple.com Safari Dev Center http://developer.apple.com/safari Apple Developer Forums http://devforums.apple.com
  • 377. Related Sessions Optimizing Web Content in UIWebViews and Websites on iOS Marina Tuesday 4:30PM Delivering Web Content on High Resolution Displays Nob Hill Wednesday 11:30AM Advanced Effects with HTML5 Media Technologies Marina Thursday 2:00PM
  • 378. Labs Safari and Web Tools Lab Safari & Web Lab Wednesday 2:00PM Web Content Optimization Lab Safari & Web Lab Wednesday 3:15PM Safari and WebKit Open Lab Safari & Web Lab Thursday 3:15PM
  • 380. Summary • Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app
  • 381. Summary • Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app • Enable Safari’s developer tools on Mac and iOS
  • 382. Summary • Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app • Enable Safari’s developer tools on Mac and iOS • Web Inspector has a new streamlined user interface
  • 383. Summary • Web Inspector is now available on Safari for iOS and your iOS app • Enable Safari’s developer tools on Mac and iOS • Web Inspector has a new streamlined user interface • Be informed when debugging your site and app’s web content
  • 384. Q&A
  • 385.
  • 387. МОРАЛЬ Если вы сделаете Х то будет Y иначе будет Z
  • 388. Герой Цель Проблема Злодей Решение Цена Мораль Я сам? Клиент? Клиент клиента? Чего хочет герой? Почему он не может без этого жить? Кто ему мешает? В чем инсайт? Какова цена решения? В чем призыв к действию?
  • 390. История — 
 путешествие в поисках истины.  ПИТЕР ДАНН Сценарист и писатель
  • 396. Вообще говоря, сценаристы должны писать то, что их «зажигает», а не то что кажется им коммерческим сейчас.  ДЭВИД ФРЕНДЛИ Продюсер

  • 397. K ALEXEI KAPTEREV www.kapterev.com License: CC, Attribution, Share Alike | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/