TV Marketing and big data: cat and dog or thick as thieves? Krzysztof Osiewalski & Cyril Papadacci, King
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Technical developments in the area of data warehousing have allowed companies to push their analysis a step further and, therefore, allowed data scientists to deliver more value to business areas. In that session, we will focus on the case of performance marketing at King and demonstrate how we use Hadoop capabilities to exploit user-level data efficiently. That approach results in obtaining a more holistic view in a return-on-investment analysis of TV advertisement.
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TV Marketing and big data: cat and dog or thick as thieves? Krzysztof Osiewalski & Cyril Papadacci, King
- 2. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential TV Marketing and big data:TV Marketing and big data:TV Marketing and big data:TV Marketing and big data: Cat and Dog or Thick as Thieves? Krzysztof Osiewalski Senior Econometrician / Data Scientist Marketing Data Science Krzysztof.Osiewalski@king.com Cyril Papadacci Senior Econometrician / Data Scientist Marketing Data Science Cyril.Papadacci@king.com
- 3. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential About King Page 3
- 4. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential We make great games About King • More than 185 fun titles played in over 200 countries and regions around the world. • 364 million average monthly unique users (Q1 2015). • Studios in Stockholm, London, Barcelona, Bucharest, Malmo, Berlin, Singapore and Seattle. • Offices in San Francisco, Malta, Tokyo, Seoul and Shanghai. Page 4
- 5. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Some stats and facts About King 1400Employees(approx) Four global franchises: Founded in 2003, studios in Stockholm, London, Barcelona, Malmo, Bucharest, Berlin, Singapore and Seattle. Global leader in cross-platform casual games. Candy Crush Pet Rescue Farm Heroes Bubble Witch Page 5
- 6. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Some stats and facts 1.000.000.000.000 Millions of players around the world. Approximately 1.6 billion average daily game plays across our games in Q1 ‘15 More than 1 trillion levels played! • Games popular across platforms, and can be played anywhere, anytime on most devices. • 3 games in the top 10 grossing games on the Apple App Store and on Google Play in the US in Q1 ‘15 . • Our Saga games allow players to switch platform without losing their progress. About King Page 6
- 7. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential The evolution of King About King • Founded in 2003 • Originally games were only available through our site and portals including AOL and Yahoo! Online skill Social Mobile • Launched first game on Facebook in Q2 2011 • Launched first game on mobile H2 2012 Page 7
- 8. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Some of our games About King Page 8
- 9. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Data at King Page 9
- 10. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Big Data The definition of Big Data [Gartner, 2001] “Big data” is high-volume, -velocity and -variety information assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing for enhanced insightenhanced insightenhanced insightenhanced insight and decision makingdecision makingdecision makingdecision making. The big data V’s: • VolumeVolumeVolumeVolume quickly evolving (TB in 2012 PB today) • VarietyVarietyVarietyVariety numbers, text, language, sounds, coordinates, etc… • VelocityVelocityVelocityVelocity needs fast collection and processing • VeracityVeracityVeracityVeracity inconsistencies over time, missing data, etc. • ValueValueValueValue capturing business opportunities, optimizing ... Page 10
- 11. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential A bit about KingBig Data Big Data serves business needs • Infrastructure and analytics should ultimately help answer business questions • Provide decision makers with a better real-time understanding of the business at a very granular level [importance of visualizationvisualizationvisualizationvisualization] • Help measure the impact of actions in order to have a more data- driven strategy • Efficient use of data fosters a more agile approach to driving the business Page 11
- 12. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Our data is… growing Data at King Page 12
- 13. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Our data is… growing Data at King Page 13 Exceeds Qlikview capacity Exceeds Infobright capacity
- 14. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential A bit about KingData at King Our data describes the activity of our player base • The information that we gather typically looks like this: • User #123456 • Installed Game G on date t0 from source S • Played R1, R2,… game rounds on dates t1, t2,… • Passed level L1 on date t1 • Failed level L2 3 times on date t2 • Sent m1, m2,…. messages on dates t1, t2,… • Did n1, n2,… transactions on date t1, t2,… Acquisition Engagement/Retention Skills/level difficulty Virality Monetization Page 14
- 15. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Data value for King - in marketing Page 15
- 16. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential A bit about KingWhat do we use our data for? Several marketing areas benefit from the rich data that we have • PerformancePerformancePerformancePerformance MarketingMarketingMarketingMarketing CLV/RPI modelling Marketing campaign performance analysis (e.g. digital, TV) Typical business questions: • What was the impact on all KPIs of the last digital ad campaign? • How much are these players likely to spend within next year? • Up to what threshold can we pay for acquiring this group of users? • How do we measure the ROI of a TV campaignHow do we measure the ROI of a TV campaignHow do we measure the ROI of a TV campaignHow do we measure the ROI of a TV campaign???? Page 16
- 17. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential A bit about King What do we use our data for? Different channels, different challenges TVTVTVTV (and outdoor, press, radio...) DigitalDigitalDigitalDigital advertisingadvertisingadvertisingadvertising Mass audienceAnonymous User level Full history of conversion funnel at individual levelFull history of conversion funnel at individual levelFull history of conversion funnel at individual levelFull history of conversion funnel at individual level Measurement only on aggregated metricsMeasurement only on aggregated metricsMeasurement only on aggregated metricsMeasurement only on aggregated metrics Page 17
- 18. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential User acquisition – econometric ‘top down’ approach Baseline basket and TV group installs follow similar patterns in a period without TV spend Clear difference between baseline basket and TV group installs in period of TV marketing spend What do we use our data for? Page 18
- 19. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential 364 m We have more players than the entire US populationWe have more players than the entire US populationWe have more players than the entire US populationWe have more players than the entire US population 320 m King in numbers A reminder about King Page 19
- 20. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential TV has effects on multiple player segments Other components User acquisitionUser acquisitionUser acquisitionUser acquisition Page 20
- 21. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential User acquisitionUser acquisitionUser acquisitionUser acquisition ReactivationReactivationReactivationReactivation Active usersActive usersActive usersActive users Page 21 TV has effects on multiple player segments Other components
- 22. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Reactivation measurement Continuously active playersContinuously active playersContinuously active playersContinuously active players W08 W09W07W06 TV campaignTV campaignTV campaignTV campaign New installsNew installsNew installsNew installsReturners/ReactivatedReturners/ReactivatedReturners/ReactivatedReturners/Reactivated W10W05 EconometricsEconometricsEconometricsEconometricsAnonymous uAnonymous uAnonymous uAnonymous user level analysisser level analysisser level analysisser level analysis Big Data Aggregate time series Other components Page 22
- 23. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential A potentially heavy task Analysis across the board 24 TV countries 7 games TV activity since beginning 2013 Hundreds of campaigns Page 23
- 24. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential “Compression” with JSON UserID week game_rounds 123456789 2014W51 13 123456789 2015W03 9 123456789 2015W04 1 123456789 2015W08 123 123456789 2015W09 444 123456789 2015W10 12 123456789 2015W11 13 UserID game_rounds_blob 123456789 {"2014W51":13,"2015W08":123,"2015W09":444,"2015W04":1,"2015W03":9,"2015W10":12,"2015W11":13} Need for speed Raw data model “Compressed” version – unique UserID record Page 24
- 25. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Complexifying can sometimes make things simpler Need for speed Unique UserID JSON table Optimally structured & partitioned Heavy map stage: • 9TB • Useless (in this case) partitioning Heavy map stage Heavy reduce stage Fixedone-offcost Light map stage • Use of partitions • Filter at map stage Trivial reduce stage Smallvariablecost MMMM RRRR MMMM MMMM RRRR RRRR MMMM RRRR MMMM MMMM RRRR RRRR MMMM MMMM MMMM RRRR Heavy reduce stage: • Requires proper distributing • Requires scripting in memory over each user, given all his data • Potentially unbalanced due to multiple filters Page 25
- 26. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Complexifying can sometimes make things simpler Need for speed Unique UserID JSON table Optimally structured & partitioned Heavy map stage: • 9TB • Useless (in this case) partitioning Heavy map stage Heavy reduce stage Fixedone-offcost Light map stage • Use of partitions • Filter at map stage Trivial reduce stage Smallvariablecost MMMM RRRR MMMM MMMM RRRR RRRR MMMM RRRR MMMM MMMM RRRR RRRR MMMM MMMM MMMM RRRR Heavy reduce stage: • Requires proper distributing • Requires scripting in memory over each user, given all his data • Potentially unbalanced due to multiple filters Page 26 100’s x100’s x100’s x100’s x slowslowslowslow 1x slow1x slow1x slow1x slow 100’s x100’s x100’s x100’s x fastfastfastfast
- 27. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Value of JSON for us Increasing fixed cost, but reducing the variable one Full analysis of a single campaign reduced to less than 10 minutes Value of flexibility for the business Crucial when need for testing different scenarios Another level of confidence in the achieved ROI Opening new horizons: halo effect, cross market effect Page 27
- 28. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Page 28
- 29. © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential Page 29
- 30. Thank you © King.com Ltd 2015 – Commercially confidential