Introduction to petroleum Economics

PETROLEUM ECONOMICS
(GP4208)
Hassan Z. Harraz
Professor of Economic Geology,
Geology Department,
Faculty of Science, Tanta University, Egypt

An Introduction to INTRODUCTION TO PETROLEUM
ECONOMICS is to Geophysists.
◆This course provides a non-technical introduction to the basic
concepts of:
Introduction
➢ Crude Oil;
➢ Petroleum Reserves and Resources Classification,
➢ Petroleum industry structure, and Oil companies,
➢ Petroleum sector: Fiscal regimes, and Types of petroleum contracts
agreement;
➢ Crude Oil Quality, and Benchmarks of Crude Oils;
➢ World Petroleum Reserves, Crude Oil Supply and Demand; Oil Price
Formation, Energy Trends and Technologies for the Coming Decades; and
Crude Oil Futures Trading.
❖ With numerous examples, charts, figures and images of Petroleum and gas
industries.
❖ Also included are some key aspects of the economics of a Petroleum sector:
Fiscal regimes and the International Oil & Gas Markets operation and some
ideas about the future of Petroleum.
2

OUTLINE OF LECTURES:
Lecture 1: Introduction
Lecture 2: Petroleum Reserves and Resources Classification
Lecture 3 : Petroleum Industry Structure – Oil Companies
Lecture 4: Petroleum sector: Fiscal regimes
Lecture 5: Geographic Location: Benchmarks of Crude Oils
Lecture 6: World Petroleum Reserves
Lecture 7: Crude Oil Supply and Demand
Lecture 8: Global Crude Oil Market
Lecture 9: Crude Oil Futures Trading
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5
Lecture 1: Introduction
Alpha….. Betical
PRINCIPLES
@Hassan Harraz
Petroleum Economics
Prof. Dr. Hassan Z. Harraz
Geology Department, Faculty of Science, Tanta University
hharraz2006@yahoo.com
Spring 2020

Classification of fossil fuels as hydrocarbon resources
and hydrocarbon producing resources.
9
Tar Sand/Bitumen
Oil Shale

heat/pressure are required to convert organic-rich marine sediments into oil,
but additional heat/pressure will transform liquid oil into natural gas
10
Schematic presentation of Oil/Gas Generation and Diagenesis
Heavy


Light

http://www.nixor.co.uk/wp-
content/uploads/2013/09/5_the_oil_window.jpg
11

Types of Oil & Natural Gas Plays
12

In nature, petroleum deposits are occurring in two different modes, namely:
i) Conventional oil/gas reservoirs
Figure shows Crude oil/gas reservoirs; Hydrocarbontrap; traditionaloil well methods.
ii) Unconventional oil/gas reservoirs
Oil that has escaped to the surface and extracted by
mining techniques. Unconventional deposits, such as:-
➢ Arctic oil (or Polar oil)
➢ Deepwater
➢ Ultra-deep water
➢ Fractured source rock
• Marsh gas ,
• Coal-bed methane,
• Tar sands
• Oil sand
• Oil/gas shales….etc
Occurrence of Oil and Gas
Room and pillar oil shale mine in Estonia
13

There are two umbrella terms given to petroleum: Conventional oil and
Unconventional oil.
Figure : In Situ Oil and Gas Resources versus Supply
14

15
Natural Gas Resource and Quality Types

Conventional versus Unconventional Oil and Gas
Conventional Oil and Gas Resources
❑90% of word's production.
❑Conventional reservoirs typically have a
hydrocarbon accumulation with a distinct oil-
water or gas-water contact (due to natural
segregation of these fluids via buoyancy).
❑ Conventional Resources are concentrations of oil or
gas that occur in discrete accumulationsor
pools,….Traps…etc.
❑ Accumulations in medium to highly porous
reservoirs with sufficient permeability to allow
gas to flow to producing well.
❑ Rock formations hosting these pools traditionally
have high porosity and permeability and are found
below impermeable rock formations.
❑ Conventional oil and gas pools are developed using
vertical well bores and using minimal stimulation.
❑Conventional Oil and Gas is simply known as the
traditional way to drill for raw natural gas, crude oil,
and petroleum.
❑So what do I mean by traditional?
➢ After a well is drilled, oil and gas is extracted by
the natural pressure from the wells and pumping
operations. Over time, the well may decrease in
production. At this time, a conventional well will
use an artificial lift or water and gas injections to
help increase production.
UnconventionalOil and Gas Resources
❑The hydrocarbon in unconventional reservoirs does
not have an oil-water or gas-water contact.
❑Unconventional" reservoirs are many things all at
the same time: Coal-bed methane, tight-gas
sandstone, ultra-deep water, drilling into high
temperature/pressure reservoirs.
❑The term "unconventional oil” refers to oil that is
obtained without using the traditional method.
➢ Unconventional Resources are oil or gas-
bearing units where the permeabilityand
porosity are so low that the resource cannot
be extracted economicallythrougha vertical
well bore and instead requires a horizontal
well bore followed by multistagehydraulic
fracturing.
❑Unconventional resources fall into two broad
categories:
1)A widespread, low-permeability and -porosity
gas- or oil-charged horizon.
2)If the horizon is composed primarily of shale, it
is a “Shale Gas” or “Shale Oil” Resource; and,
3) Low-permeability and -porosity portions of an
oil or gas pool that cannot be developed
through conventional drilling and completion
processes
16

17
Natural GAS
❑ Natural Gas:
➢ is a mixture of 50-90% Methane (CH4) by volume; contains smaller amounts of Ethane,
Propane, Butane And Toxic Hydrogen Sulfide.
➢ Either Conventional natural gas or Unconventional deposits.
Conventional gas Unconventional gas
❑lies above most reservoirs of crude oil
❑Pressure regime tends to moves gas
toward producing well (i.e., natural flow).
❑Deposits of natural gas found in relatively
impermeable rock formations-Tight sand and
coal beds.
❑Include Coal Beds, Shale Rock, Deep Deposits
of Tight Sands and Deep Zones that contain
natural gas dissolved in hot water.
❑To get resources out of the ground, artificial
pathways (fractures) have to be created.
❑Key technologies are horizontal drilling and
hydraulic fracturing techniques.
❑Need much higher number of extracting well

Raw Natural gas
❑ Raw natural gas may come from any one of three types
of gas wells:
➢Crude oil wells: Raw natural gas that comes from crude
oil wells is called associated gas. This gas can exist
separate from the crude oil in the underground
formation, or dissolved in the crude oil. Condensate
produced from oil wells is often referred to as lease
condensate.
➢Condensate wells: These wells produce raw natural gas
along with natural gas liquid. Such gas is also called
associated gas and often referred to as Wet Gas.
➢Dry gas wells: These wells typically produce only raw
natural gas that contains no hydrocarbon liquids. Such
gas is called non-associated gas. {Condensate from dry
gas is extracted at gas processing plants and is often
called plant condensate}.
18

1.1) Natural Gas: Dry vs. Wet
19
Do you know the difference between dry and wet natural gas?
Dry Natural Gas Wet Natural Gas
❑ Dry Natural Gas is almost completely
Methane (99% -100%).
❑ The higher the methane concentration
within the gas, the drier it is.
❑ Dry natural gas is what remains after all of
the liquefied hydrocarbons (Hexane,
Octane, etc.) and non-hydrocarbon
(Helium, Nitrogen, etc.) impurities are
removed from the natural gas stream.
❑Wet gas" contains Liquid Natural Gases
(LNGs) such as Ethane or Butane and
hence the Methane content (<85% CH4).
❑The combination of LNG’s and liquefied
hydrocarbons give it the “Wetness”.
❑LNG’s are separated from the methane and
sold as individual compounds.
❑A lot of wet gas is often found in Shale
Formations discovered by Fracking.
Dry gas is typically used in heating and
cooling systems and for electrical
power generation.
Once compressed, dry gas can be used as
vehicle fuel.
LNG’s like butane can be used in
refrigeration and freezing systems, in
torches for cooking purposes and as fuel for
lighters and grills.

1.2) Types of Natural Gas
❑ Associated Gas and Non-associated Gas
❑ Raw natural gas comes from three types of wells: Oil Wells, Gas Wells, and Condensate Wells.
❑ Sweet and Sour Natural Gas
20
Associated Gas Non-associated Gas
Associated gas is a form of natural gas that is associated with
the oil in the reservoir. It is also known as Associated
Petroleum Gas (APG).
The term APG is usually refers to the gas dissolved in the oil;
however, theoretically the gas cap is also can be included. When
the oil is extracted to the surface, associated gas comes out of
solution and usually separated before oil is transmitted via pipeline
Natural gas from gas and condensate
wells in which there is little or no crude
oil, is termed “Non-associated Gas.”
Oil Wells
Condensate Wells
[Wet Gas Well]
Dry Gas Wells
Natural gas that comes from oil
wells is typically termed “Associated
Gas.”
This gas can exist separately from oil
in the formation (Free Gas), or
dissolved in the crude oil (Dissolved
Gas).
❖ Condensate Wells produce free natural
gas along with a semi-liquid
hydrocarbon condensate.
❖ Condensate wells: These wells
produce raw natural gas along with
natural gas liquid. Such gas is also
called associated gas and often
referred to as Wet Gas
Gas wells typically produce only raw natural
gas.
➢ Dry gas wells: These wells typically
produce only raw natural gas that contains
no hydrocarbon liquids. Such gas is called
non-associated gas.
➢ Condensate from dry gas is extracted at gas
processing plants and is often called Plant
Condensate.

21
Types of Natural Gas Liquids
❑ Commercial Propane:
➢Propane and/or Propylene (at least 95%)
➢Vapor Pressure < 215 psig at 100 oF
❑ Commercial Butane:
➢ Butanes and/or Butane (at least 95%)
➢ vapor pressure < 70 psig at 100 oF
➢ At least 95% must evaporate at 34 0F or lower in a standard test.
❑ Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG):
➢ A mixture of Commercial Propane and Commercial Butane.
➢ maximum vapor pressure < 215 psig at 100 oF
➢ At least 95% must evaporate at 34 oF or lower in a standard test.
❑ Natural Gasoline:
➢ This petroleum product is extracted from natural gas
➢ specifications:
✓ Vapor pressure:10-34psi
✓ Percentage evaporated at 140 F: 24-85%
✓ Percentage evaporated at 275 F: not less the 90%
21

❑The hydrocarbons in crude oil can generally be divided into four categories:
i) Un-Saturates
❖ Paraffins: These can make up 15 to 60% of crude and have a carbon to hydrogen
ratio of 1:2, which means they contain twice the amount of hydrogen as they do
carbon. These are generally straight or branched chains, but never cyclic (circular)
compounds. Paraffins are the desired content in crude and what are used to make
fuels. The shorter the paraffins are, the lighter the crude is.
❖ Aromatics: These can constitute anywhere from 3 to 30% of crude. They are
undesirable because burning them results in soot. They have a much less hydrogen in
comparison to carbon than is found in paraffins. They are also more viscous. They are
often solid or semi-solid when an equivalent paraffin would be a viscous liquid under
the same conditions.
ii) Saturates
❖ Napthenes: These can make up 30 to 60% of crude and have a carbon to hydrogen
ratio of 1:2. These are cyclic compounds and can be thought of as cycloparaffins. They
are higher in density than equivalent paraffins and are more viscous.
❖ Asphaltics: These average about 6% in most crude. They have a carbon to hydrogen
ratio of approximately 1:1, making them very dense. They are generally undesirable in
crude, but their 'stickiness' makes them excellent for use in road construction.
1) THE HYDROCARBONS IN CRUDE OIL
22

Edwin Drake and Henry Ford
1859 Edwin Drake drilled the first oil well near Titusville, PA.
24

1) HISTORY OF USE
➢ Petro means rock
➢ Oleum means oil
▪ Babylonians first used oil tar for mortar in building structures.
▪ The Egyptians also used oil products for embalming mummies around
that time.
▪ The Romans used crude oil in lamps.
• Arab scientists discovered distillation and were able to make kerosene.
This was lost after the 12th century!
▪ First U.S. Natural Gas Well….In 1821, William Hart dug the First Natural
Gas Well in Fredonia, NY. …. It was just 27 feet deep, quite shallow
compared to today’s wells.
▪ Rediscovered by a Canadian geologist called Abraham Gesner in 1852
▪ In 1854, the invention of the kerosene lamp led to the formation of
the first American Oil Company.
▪ 1858: first oil drilled in Canada
▪ In 1859, Romania was the center of the world oil industry where 150
villages mined 36,000 barrels per year from oil seeps.
▪ 1859: Edwin Drake..!
Who is he?
➢He was the first person in the U.S. to drill for oil
Where?
➢Titusville, Pennsylvania
▪ Initial cost: $20 per barrel, within three years dropped to 10 cents
Burn rocks
whalelamp
25

Exploration Production Transport Refining
Chemical
Manufacturing Uses
Oil and Gas Process

Oil/Gas Field Life Cycle
28
E&P Project Lifecycle

Field Development Life Cycle:
Exploration:
•Appraisal
•Discovery
Drilling
Development
•Completion
•Facilities
•Piping
Production
•Primary
•Secondary
•EOR
Abandonment
30

Exploration and Production by Drilling
32

© Hassan Z. Harraz WORLD PETROLEUM
RESERVES
33

Conventional vs. Unconventional Oil & Gas
RESERVES
34

Horizontal Drilling and Hydraulic Fracturing
• Increased technology
allows us to retrieve
“tight” formations.
• The drilling process is
similar, except for a
specialized bit that allows
for horizontal drilling.
• If oil and gas are trapped,
fracturing may be used to
allow liquids to flow.
35

Oil and gas are found on land and
under water…

THE INDUSTRY OF OIL AND GAS
March 28, 2020 39
OFFSHORE
ONSHORE

March 28, 2020 40
In the offshore oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) industry, is
defined
i) Shallow water (Shelf): would be described as up to 300-400 feet (91-121
m) deep, but nowadays anything under 1000 feet (305 m) could be described
as shallow water.
ii) Midwater: ranges from 1000-5000 feet (305-1524 meters), although there
still might be people that would say 500-4000 feet (152-1219 m) depending on
their own personal experience and work history.
iii) Deepwater: is considered to be anything more than midwater (4000/5000
ft or 1219/1524 m) but not ultra-deep. The top end of deepwater comes in at
around 7000 feet (2133 m). Just like the shallow water definition creep over
time, there was a time when even depths of 1000 feet (305 m) were
considered to be deepwater. This is an illustration of how we’ve evolved and
advanced technology over time.
iv) Ultra-Deepwater: is drilling between 7000-12000 feet (2134-3658 m) at
the time of writing. It won’t be surprising to come back and edit these words in
a few years time, with a few thousand extra feet added to these figures.

Heavy Crude Production Methods
❑ Bitumen
➢ SAGD – steam assisted gravity drainage:
❖ Primary energy is natural gas to
generatesteam for injection.
❖ Key parameter is steam to oil ratio: bbls
of cold water/bbl of oil.
➢ Mining:
❖ Primary energy is diesel fuel to power
equipment
❖ Natural gas and electricityare used to
separate bitumen from clay.
❖ Study does not include land use or
methane release in mine preparation.
➢ May import or self-generateelectricity and
export electricity to the grid.
❑ California heavy crude oil:
➢ Uses an older somewhat less efficient
thermal method than SAGD.
➢ Primary energy is natural gas.
CA
Thermal
SAGD

i.treehugger.com/files/canada-tar-sands-01.jpg
NASA
43

RESERVES
47
❑ Ten countries in the
Middle East account
for only 3.4% of the
area but contain
48% of world’s
known oil reserves
and 38% of natural
gas reserves.
❑ Despite decades of
exploration
worldwide, we have
not found ‘another
Middle East.’

Giant Oil Fields
❑ Giant Oil Field:
An oilfield with estimated ultimate recoverable (URR) oil of more than 500 million barrels (>500
Million BBLS or >0.5 Gb) (~1% of the total number of world oil fields) .
❑ Giant oil fields are the world’s largest.
❑ majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old.
❑ The largest fields discovered during the last decade where 35 giant oil fields discovered.
❑ 20 years ago, 15 fields had the capacity to produce more than 1,000,000 b/d.
❑ Giant oil fields contribution to world oil production was over 65% in 2005, with the 20 largest fields
alone responsible for nearly 25%.
❑ Today only four field can produce that much:
➢ Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), 1948
➢ Kirkuk (Iraq), 1938
➢ Burgan Greater (Kuwait), 1927
➢ Cantarell (Mexico), 1976
49

Top 18 Giant Fields
Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA
50

Largest Oil Fields
Worldwide
RESERVES
51
Serial
No
Country Field Name
Discovery
Year
Production
(b/d)
Range of URR
(GB)
1 Saudia Arabia Ghawar 1948 5000000 66 - 100
2 Kuwait Burgan Greater 1938 1200000 32 - 60
3 Azerbaijan Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli 850000
4 Mexica Ku-Maloob-Zaap 800000
5 Abu Dhabi Zakum 1964 750000 17 - 21
6 Russia Samotlor 1961 750000 6 - 14
7 Russia Priobskoye 650000
8 Mexica Cantarell Complex 1976 660000 11 - 20
9 Iran Ahwaz (Bangestan) 1958 600000 13 - 15
10 Saudia Arabia Shaybah 500000
11 Abu Dhabi Bu Hasa 500000
12 Qatar Al Shaheen 480000
13 Kazakhstan Tengiz 450000
14 Russia Fedorovo-Surgutskoye 400000
15 Algeria Hassi Messaoud 380000
16 Saudia Arabia Abqaiq 1941 375000 10 - 15
17 Venezuela El Furrial 370000
18 Barzil Marlim 350000
19 Venezuela Junin 320000
20 Abu Dhabi Bab 320000
21 Saudia Arabia Safaniya 1951 21 -36
22 Venezuela Bolivar Coastal 1917 14 - 16
23 Saudia Arabia Berri 1964 10 - 25
24 Iraq Rumalia N & S 1953 22
25 Saudia Arabia Manifa 1957 17
26 Iraq Kirkuk 1927 16
27 Iran Gashsaran 1928 12 - 15
28 Iran Marun 1963 12 - 14
29 Iran Agha Jari 1937 6 - 14
30 Saudia Arabia Zuluf 1965 12 - 14
31 Alska Prundhoe Bay 1969 13 Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

Here Are The World’s Five Most Important Oil Fields
1) Ghawar (Saudi Arabia)
❑ The legendary Ghawar field has been churning out oil since the early 1950s, allowing Saudi Arabia to claim the
mantle as the world’s largest oil producer and the only country with sufficient spare capacity to act as a swing
producer. Holding an estimated 70 billion barrels of remaining reserves, Ghawar alone has more oil reserves
than all but seven other countries, according to the Energy Information Administration. Some oil analysts believe
that Ghawar passed its peak perhaps a decade ago, but Saudi Arabia’s infamous lack of transparency keeps
everyone guessing. Nevertheless, it remains the world’s largest oil field, both in terms of reserves and
production. It continues to produce 5 million barrels per day (bpd).
2) Burgan (Kuwait)
❑ Just behind Ghawar is another massive oil field located in the Middle East. The Burgan field was originally
discovered in 1938, but production didn’t begin until a decade later. The field holds an estimated 66 to 72 billion
barrels of reserves, which accounts for more than half of Kuwait’s total, and it produces between 1.1 and 1.3
million bpd.
3) Safaniya (Saudi Arabia/Kuwait)
❑ The Safaniya field is the world’s largest offshore oil field. Located in the Persian Gulf, the Safaniya field is
thought to hold more than 50 billion barrels of oil. It is Saudi Arabia’s second largest producing field behind
Ghawar, churning out 1.5 million bpd. Like Saudi Arabia’s other fields, Safaniya is very mature as it has been
producing for nearly 60 years, but Saudi Aramco is working hard to extend its operating life.
4) Rumaila (Iraq)
❑ Iraq’s largest oil field is the Rumaila, which holds an estimated 17.8 billion barrels of oil. Located in southern Iraq,
Rumaila was highly sought after when the Iraqi government put blocks up for bid in 2009. BP and the China
National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) are working together to develop the giant field along with Iraq’s state-
owned South Oil Company. The field now produces around 1.5 million bpd, but its operators have plans to boost
that production to 2.85 million bpd over the next couple of years.
5) West Qurna-2 (Iraq)
❑ Also located in southern Iraq, the West Qurna-2 field is Iraq’s second largest, holding nearly 13 billion barrels of
oil reserves. The West Qurna field was divided in two and auctioned off to international oil companies. Russia’s
Lukoil took control of West Qurna-2 and successfully began production earlier this year at an initial 120,000 bpd.
Lukoil plans on lifting production to 1.2 million bpd by the end of 2017. The neighboring West Qurna-1 field –
operated by a partnership of ExxonMobil, BP, Eni SpA, and PetroChina – holds 8.6 billion barrels of oil reserves.
They hope to increase production from 300,000 bpd to more than 2.3 million bpd over the next half-decade.
➢ It’s clear that the Middle East is still the center of the universe when it comes to oil. Despite their age, these
supergiants remain the oil fields of tomorrow. And as the tight oil revolution in the U.S. plays out, these fields will
remain, and the world will continue to depend heavily on the fortunes of a few countries in the Middle East
52

• Saudi Arabia has over 300 recognized reservoirs but
➢ ~90% of its oil comes from the five super giant fields
discovered between 1940 and 1965.
• Since the 1970s there haven't been new discoveries of giant
fields.
Ghawar Field
❑Discovered in 1948, Ghawar is the world's biggest oil field, 174
miles in length and 16 miles across and encompasses 1.3 million
acres.
❑Current estimates, for cumulative oil production are 55 billion
barrels.
❑Average production for the last 10 years is five million barrels per
day.
❑Ghawar accounts for more than one-half of all oil production in
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's
53

54
World's largest oil field – the Ghawar oil field, Saudi Arabia,
174 miles in length and 16 miles across
and encompasses 1.3 million acres.

RESERVES
55
World's largest oil field – the Ghawar oil field, Saudi Arabia,

RESERVES
56

Kuwait Oil and Gas Fields
57
The Great Burgan field in the south-west part of Kuwait has 14 gathering centers
for the oil produced from the giant field.

RESERVES
58

What is the relationship between molecular weight and behavior of petroleum
hydrocarbons?
62

What does a barrel of crude oil provide?
Note: A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of
crude oil yields about 45
gallons of petroleum products.
Data: Energy Information Administration

Petroleum Products
Data: Energy Information Administration
Petroleum Products
by Type, 2011
Gasoline 42.02%
Diesel / Heating Oil 26.99%
Other 14.36%
(asphalt, feedstock, paraffin)
Jet Fuel 8.80%
Refinery Fuel 4.11%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas 3.73%
64

Historical Energy Use by Type of Fuel (%)
Oil and gas have gone from representing a very minor percentage of the nation’s energy
usage to a very significant contributor in the past 150 years with the largest rise after
World War II.
65

Primary Energy Sources
Note: ‘Other Renewables’ include Geothermal, Solar, Wind,
Tide and Wave Energy for Electricity Generation
66

1 BARREL OF OIL
= 5.8 X 10 6 BTU
= 42 US gallons = approx. 159 litres
1 cubic metre = 35.315 cubic feet = 6.2898 barrels
1 tonne of crude oil = approx. 7.3 barrels
ENERGY CONVERSIONS
Tonne of oil equivalent
The tonne of oil equivalent (toe) is a unit of energy defined as the amount of energy released by
burning one tonne of crude oil.
Mtoe, one million toe
gigatoe (Gtoe, one billion toe).
A smaller unit of kilogram of oil equivalent (kgoe) is also sometimes used denoting 1/1000 toe.
• 1 toe = 39,683,205.411 BTU
• 1 toe = 7.11, 7.33, or 7.4 barrel of oil equivalent (boe)
• 1 barrel of oil equivalent (boe) contains approximately 0.146 toe (i.e. there are approximately 6.841 boe
in a toe).
70

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Introduction to petroleum Economics

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