1.
© 2018 | idalab GmbH | Potsdamer Straße 68 | 10785 Berlin | idalab.de page 1 | confidential
Agency for Data Science
Machine learning & AI
Mathematical modelling
Data strategy
Philippa Sigl-Glöckner
Interactive data visualisation – Can new empirical
approaches in macroeconomic research reveal the
true nature of our financial systems?
idalab seminar #17 | March 7th 2019

2.
Visualising Financial Systems
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner
philippa@sigl-gloeckner.de
idalab, 7. March 2019
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 1 / 25

3.
Outline
1 Background
2 Implementation
3 Summary
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 2 / 25

4.
Outline
1 Background
2 Implementation
3 Summary
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 3 / 25

5.
Background Implementation Summary
The issue with macroeconomics
Source: Blog Lars Psyll
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 4 / 25

6.
Background Implementation Summary
Black hole financial system
“The financial system matters - a lot. [...] What we have learned about the
financial system is that the problem is in the plumbing and that we have to
understand the plumbing.”
–Olivier Blanchard, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund during the financial
crisis 2008/09 [Blanchard, 2013]
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 5 / 25

7.
Background Implementation Summary
Statisticial nightmare
• Wide and small datasets (lots of dimensions, short timeseries)
• The object of analysis is constantly changing; observation itself may
change the object (Heisenbug!)
• Crappy data, distorted by accounting shenanigans
• Ideally: Live decision making
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 6 / 25

8.
Background Implementation Summary
Old idea: Drawing financial circuits
Example: Circuit flow of money in the US Economy
Source: Foster, Circuit Flow of Money, The American Economic Review, 1922
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 7 / 25

9.
Background Implementation Summary
However, visualisations as part of financial systems analysis
are still rare
Essential components are still missing on an infrastructural, conceptional
and implementation level:
• For visualising markets, there is no domain specific software allowing
for the efficient generation of financial networks
• For visualising individual entities, we miss a visual encoding of
balance sheets
• There is no visualisation of the financial system of the Euro Area as a
whole
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 8 / 25

10.
Outline
1 Background
2 Implementation
3 Summary
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 9 / 25

11.
Background Implementation Summary
The Interbank Network Visualiser: Self-service tool for
visualising networks based on csv data
Interface
Local server
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 10 / 25

12.
Background Implementation Summary
The Interbank Network Visualiser
Structure
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 11 / 25

13.
Background Implementation Summary
The Interbank Network Visualiser
Scope for future work
• GUI for launching the software
• More flexibility for format of input data
• Enhanced ability to deal with networks of varying size
• ’Intelligent’ network layout algorithm
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 12 / 25

14.
Background Implementation Summary
Balance Sheet Visualisation
Today
Source: Deutsche Bank
Figure: Deutsche Bank balance sheet 2017
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 13 / 25

15.
Background Implementation Summary
Balance Sheet Visualisation
Interface
Website
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 14 / 25

16.
Background Implementation Summary
Balance Sheet Visualisation
Scope for future work
• Development of a Sankey library giving fine grained control over the
layout to the user
• Node placement algorithm: Reducing overlaps and crossings while
minimising whitespace and changes in position
• Further analytical features
• Automated node ordering (according to levels)
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 15 / 25

17.
Background Implementation Summary
Visualising the European financial system
Mapping tectonic shifts
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 16 / 25

18.
Background Implementation Summary
Euro Area financial system visualisation
Interface
Website
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 17 / 25

19.
Background Implementation Summary
Euro Area financial system visualisation
Scope for future work
• Visual representation of change in node size
• Snap shot capability
• Node placement algorithm: Reducing overlaps and crossings while
minimising whitespace and changes in position
• Further analytical features, specific to networks
• Improved input data
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 18 / 25

20.
Outline
1 Background
2 Implementation
3 Summary
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 19 / 25

21.
Background Implementation Summary
Design principles for visualising financial systems
Interface
• Filtering and highlighting
• Control
• Analytics
• Context
• Scaling
• Change
• Pattern recognition
• Labels
Software architecture and tools
• Compatibility with institutional
requirements (where relevant)
• Security
• Separation of concerns
• Simplicity of architecture
• Ease of error spotting and
tracing
• Right tool for the right purpose
• Open source
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 20 / 25

22.
Background Implementation Summary
What could be next I: Mapping the European shadow
banking system
Figure: The Chinese shadow banking system [Ehlers, 2018]
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 21 / 25

23.
Background Implementation Summary
What could be next II: Visualising agent based models
Figure: Schematic of an agent based model
[Turrell, 2016]
Figure: A day in the life of Americans
[Yau, 2015]
Link
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 22 / 25

24.
Background Implementation Summary
What could be next III: A better way to code
Observable by Mike Bostock
https://beta.observablehq.com/
Link
Philippa Sigl-Gl¨ockner Data visualisation idalab, 7. March 2019 23 / 25

25.
Background Implementation Summary
References
Blanchard, O.: Olivier Blanchards Five Lessons for Economists From the Financial
Crisis, Wall Street Journal 01-04-2013
Trichet, J.: Opening address at the ECB Central Banking Conference, Frankfurt,
18 November 2010
Ehlers, T., Kong, S., Zhu, F.: Mapping shadow banking in China: structure and
dynamics. BIS Working Paper 701, 2018
Turrell, A. E.; Agent-Based Models: Understanding the Economy from the Bottom
Up (December 16, 2016). Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2016 Q4
Yau, N.; A Day in The Life of Americans (December 15, 2015),
https://flowingdata.com/2015/12/15/a-day-in-the-life-of-americans/
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26.
Background Implementation Summary
Thank you
Contact: philippa@sigl-gloeckner.de
Website: philippasigl.com
Github: github.com/philippasigl
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