1. Points of No Return Mike Shatzkin Making Information Pay May 6, 2010

2. My view: coming change dwarfs recent change Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative books soon (end of 2012?) Total online sales for those books will then exceed brick-and-mortar sales Entirely new publishing models enabled (ebook first and POD) Disintermediation becomes a real threat Traditional business will have to shrink fast

3. Inside the publishing houses Ebook first development will occur, then grow, then become dominant Brick-and-mortar will shrink gradually, then suddenly: drastic implications for sales and operations Ebook royalties of 25% become unsustainable Single title marketing: for authors and mega-books only Consolidation occurs in many forms

4. How are people reacting to change?Pretty optimistically… Most feel fundamental change has happened (31%) or is happening now (45%) Most feel their job skills will “match the industry’s future needs” (62% to 20% who don’t think so) Half (52%) expect our business to become more profitable Of those responding, half think we’ll have more jobs as a result of change, not fewer

5. Some clouds in the blue sky Nearly half (48%) think their companies need to provide “more education” Profound change in editorial will blindside many people (a comment: “editing is editing”); only 59% expect “fundamental change” in editorial 20% do not think their skills will fit future industry needs

6. Fun with “buzzwords” Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon to pass”(!) More than a third (38%) say that about “free as a price point” More than a quarter (28%) say that about “crowd sourcing” Long term trends: digital marketing, web analytics, publishing in vertical niches (75+%)

7. Today’s program: before the breakExperts deliver data and insight Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are saying about change David Guenette of Gilbane: the 7 essential systems for publishers George Lossius of Publishing Technology: investment decisions in a time of rapid change Jabin White of Wolters Kluwer: how change affects the people who are part of it Steve Walker of SBS Worldwide (sponsor): supply chain cost savings

8. Today’s program: after the breakPublishers in the trenches John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor): tools to enable new business models Bruce Shaw & Adam Salomone of Harvard Common Press: editors acquiring for a portfolio Phil Madans of Hachette: workflow shift from “assembly line” to “collaboration” Matt Baldacci of Macmillan: the shift in marketing spending and skills Maureen McMahon of Kaplan: connecting, not closing and new hiring criteria for sales