Carlos Furche POLICY SEMINAR Virtual Event - The political economy of COVID-19: Impacts on agriculture and food policies OCT 22, 2020 - 08:30 AM TO 10:00 AM EDT

1. COVID-19: IMPACTS ON
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
CARLOS FURCHE
22 October 2020
THE CASE OF CHILE

2. COVID 19: GLOBAL ECONOMIC & SECTORAL
IMPACT
Global impact
GDP: -5%-6%
Sectoral GDP: -3%-4%
Unemployment: 15%-20%
Most affected economic sectors:
o services, construction
Agriculture and rural sector
o unemployment: increase from 4% to 8%
o rural poverty: increase from 17% to 20%-25%
o food and nutrition insecurity: from 3% to 5% (about 1 million people)

3. OPERATION OF AGRIFOOD CHAINS
Mainly normal operation of domestic consumption
chains
Public support to keep financial flows (small agriculture)
Public support to most vulnerable families (cash
transfers and also food box)
Agrifood export chains (fresh fruits and vegetables)
o Depending on transport facilities (maritime and air transportation)
o Depending on normal ports operation
o Depending on additional regulations on biosecurity

4. POLITICAL ECONOMY POST PANDEMIC
Less availability of public resources
o Competence and dispute for scarce resources
o Probably priority to other sectors (construction and services)
Pressure to relax or reduce environmental regulations to
promote private investments
Impact on prices due to downturn in demand (domestic and
external)
Eventual impact of trade protectionism in industrial economies
Climate Change Priority
New regulations from public health concerns

5. OTHER CASES IN LATIN AMERICA
Peru
o Mostly similar to Chile
Ecuador
o Severe economic crisis previous to COVID-19
Central America
o Unemployment
o Remittances reduction
o Agriculture crisis in some key commodities like coffee

6. GRACIAS
carlos.furche@gmail.com