What is a disaster and a hazard? Which areas lie in the vulnerability and risk zones in the state of Himachal Pradesh? A look at how the climate change too has added another dimension to this aspect.

1. Disasters: Risk and Management
08/20/14
By
Dr R K Sood, head of Disaster Management Centre,
Himachal Institute of Public Administration

2. 08/20/14
Major Disasters in
the country : 1990 –
2001
HAZARD PROFILE OF INDIA
58.6% landmass prone to
Earthquakes
12% area prone to floods
5700 KMs (out of 7516) is
prone to cyclones
68% of the cultivable area is
vulnerable to drought
FREQUENCY OF EXTREMES
Severe Floods - Every
Year
Severe Droughts - Every
2-3 year
Earthquake, Gujarat
Jan 2001, 13805 lives lost

3. Top 10 Disasters in India for the period 2001 to 2011
Disaster Date Deaths/Damage
Sikkim Earthquake September,
08/20/14
2011
60 people died, 597 injured, 759 schools, 377
medical facilities, 875 Anganwadis and 1255
other Govt. Buildings damaged
Leh Flashflood 5/6 August 2010193 dead, 200 missing
Kosi Flood, Bihar August, 2008 527 deaths, 19323 livestock perished, 2,22,754
houses damaged, 33,29,423 persons affected
Cyclone Nisha, Tamilnadu 2008 204 deaths, $ 800 million worth damages
Kashmir Earthquake October, 2005 86,000 deaths
Bombay Floods July, 2005 1094 deaths, 167 injured, 54 missing
Indian Ocean Tsunami 26-Dec-2004 10749 Deaths (2,30,212), 5640 missing, 2.79
million people affected, 11,827 hectares of crops
affected, 3,00,000 fishermen lost their
livelihoods
Gujarat Earthquake 26-January,
2001
25,000 deaths and 6.3 million affected

6. 08/20/14
Matter of Concern
 Disaster-related mortality risk is lower in high development
countries than in low development countries.
 Inappropriate development is responsible for configuring
disaster risk .

7. Comparison of Two Earthquakes
Haiti, 12th, january, 2010
• Magnitude 7.0 Mw
• 3.16 lakh dead, eaqual no.
injured
• More than 2.8 lakh
buildings damaged
• Education system totally
collapsed (1300 schools
destroyed)
• 50 Health facilities
destroyed
08/20/14
CHILE, 27th February, 2010
• Magnitude 8.8 Mw
(6th largest recorded
EQ)
• 525 persons killed
• Economic loss – US $
15-30 Billion

9. Geologically
Related
Disasters
Water &
Climate Related
Disasters
Chemical, Industrial
& Nuclear Related
Disasters
Accident Related
Disasters
Biologically
Related
Disasters
Earthquakes,
Landslides,
Mudflows, Dam
Bursts & Dam
Failures
Floods,
Droughts,
Cyclones,
Cloud burst,
Flash Floods,
Avalanches,
Heat & Cold
Waves
Hailstorms
Chemical &
Industrial Disasters,
Forest Fires,
Mine Collapse,
Nuclear Disasters
Road, Rail & Air
Accidents,
Boat Capsizing,
Major Building
Collapse,
Bomb Blast,
Stampedes,
Rural & Urban Fires
Biological
Disasters,
Epidemics,
Cattle
Epidemics
Emerging
Threats
Man and
Animal
Conflict,
Climate
Change
(GLOF &
LDOF)
HAZARD THREATS IN
HIMACHAL PRADESH

12. CHURCH AT FORSYTHGANJ
BEFORE AFTER

13. GURKHA BARRACKS
BEFORE AFTER (136 KILLED)

14. KANGRA FORT
BEFORE AFTER

15. BHOWAN TEMPLE
BEFORE AFTER (2000 KILLED

16. CHARI VILLAGE (150 KILLED)

17. MACLEODGANJ (900 KILLED)

18. KOTWALI

19. Projected Intensity Distribution
08/20/14 100 km

20. 08/20/14
Projected Intensity Distribution : HP

21. 08/20/14
Projected Scenario Earthquake : HP
• Estimated Injuries and Loss of Life
– Mid-night estimate
State Population
– Projected Ex-gratia
• ~Rs. 700 Crores
(Census, 2011)
Projected
Deaths
Projected
Injuries
Himachal Pradesh 68,56,509 2.3%
~1,60,000
16%
~11,00,000

22. 08/20/14
PPrroojejecctetedd S Scceennaariroio E afortrh HqPuake : HP
S No District Population (Census, 2011) % Injured % Deaths
1 Chamba 5,18,844 19.9 2.4
2 Kangra 15,07,223 15.5 2.3
3 Lahul & Spiti 31,528 19.3 2.2
4 Kullu 4,37,474 19.2 2.5
5 Mandi 9,99,518 19.7 2.5
6 Hamirpur 4,54,293 16.1 2.5
7 Una 5,21,057 11.4 2.2
8 Bilaspur 3,82,056 15.0 2.2
9 Solan 5,76,670 10.4 1.8
10 Sirmaur 5,30,164 15.8 2.3
11 Shimla 8,13,384 17.0 2.4
12 Kinnaur 84,298 13.8 2.0
Zone V
Zone IV

24. Major Landslides that caused heavy damage in the past
Year of Occurrence
Location/ Highway
Damage to highway
First Last
NH-22 1988 1995
During the flood, of 1988, 1993 and 1995, 250, 350 and 475 m of
the road was washed away.
NH-22 km 292-293 1988 1995
During the flood of 1988, 1993 and 1995, 200, 500 and 300 m of
the road was washed away.
NH-22 km 307 1988 1995
During the flood of 1988, 1993 and 1995,100, 150 and 600 m of
the road was washed away.
Major Landslides due to flash floods
Name of Landslide Year Description
Jhakari 1993
Road (NH-22) stretch of about 1/2 km was completely damaged and slide
debris blocked the river Sutlej. Traffic restored after two months.

25. GLOF& LDOF THREAT

26. Summary of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and lakes identified as Potentially
dangerous in Himachal Pradesh
River Basin Glaciers Glacier Lakes
Number Area (Sq.
Km)
Ice
Reserves
(cu. Km)
Number Area (Sq.
km)
Potentially
dangerous
Beas 358 758 76.40 59 236.20 5
Ravi 198 235 16.88 17 9.6 1
Chenab 681 1705 187.66 33 3.22 5
Sutlej 945 1218 94.45 40 136.46 3
Sub-basins 372 245 11.96 7 0.18 2
Total 2554 4161 387.35 156 385.22 16
(Source: Ives, JD; Shrestha, RB; Mool, PK (2010) Formation of Glacial lakes in the H-K-H and GLOF Risk Assessment,
ICIMOD.)

27. Other Disasters
• A human stampede at the temple of Naina Devi
occurred on 3 August 2008. 162 people died.
• Punjab governor Surendra Nath and nine
members of his family were killed when the
government's Super-King aircraft crashed into
high mountains in bad weather on July 9, 1994 in
Himachal Pradesh.
• Timber Trail Accident
• Road Accidents
• Fires – Forest and Domestic
• Hailstorms

28. 28
ATTITUDE &understanding
• THEORY OF FURY OF GOD
• THEORY OF FURY OF NATURE
• SCIENTIFIC THEORY

29. Key Elements of a Disaster
D=(H+R)*V-C
• Disaster result from the combination of hazards, conditions
of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to
reduce the potential negative consequences of risk.

30. 08/20/14
Hazard
• A dangerous
phenomenon,
substance, human
activity or condition
that may cause loss of
life, injury or other
health impacts,
property damage,
loss of livelihoods and
services, social and
economic disruption,
or environmental
damage.

31. 08/20/14
Vulnerability
• The characteristics
and circumstances
of a community,
system or asset
that make it
susceptible to the
damaging effects of
a hazard.

32. Chirgaon after cloud burst on 11 August
1997, total causalities 124
08/20/14

33. 08/20/14
Cloudburst in Manali, 2011

34. 08/20/14
Cloudburst in Manali, 2011

35. Capturing dimensions of vulnerability and
08/20/14
capacity
•The conditions determined by the physical, social, economic and
environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a
community to the impact of hazards/development related risks.

36. 08/20/14
Capacity
• The combination
of all the
strengths,
attributes and
resources
available within a
community,
society or
organization that
can be used to
achieve agreed
goals.

37. 08/20/14
Risk
• Risk is the probability of
harmful consequences, or
expected losses (deaths,
injuries, disruption to
livelihoods and economic
activity, and damage to
property or the
environment) resulting from
interactions between natural
or human-induced hazards
and vulnerable conditions.
• Conventionally risk is
expressed by the notation:
Risk = (H X V) / C

38. Risk = f (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, Location).
HAZARD- occurrence
of an earthquake of
sufficient Magnitude
(hence: Intensity at the
epicenter) capable of
causing damage to the
man-made structures.
EXPOSURE- Objects and
structures built by man
which are exposed to
the effects of the
`hazard‘: buildings,
bridges, dams, power
plant, life-line structure,
etc.
VULNERABILITY-Damageability
of the
`exposure' under the
action of the hazard;
weaker ones being
more vulnerable and
`risky' than the
stronger ones.
LOCATION- (i) How far
the `exposure' is
situated from the
Hazard location the
nearer ones being in
greater danger than
those far away, and
(ii) Local site conditions which can modify
the hazard and/or affect the stability of
the exposure, such as topography, soil
deposit, water table, etc.

39. 08/20/14
Resilience
• Ability to absorb change
• Ability + Self organizing
• Ability to Re-organize
Source: CCR Handbook
Resilience is the ability to
withstand damage or to recover
quickly from a shock such as a
disaster. A high level of resilience
allows people, systems and
environments to recover quickly,
therefore reducing the negative
impact of a shock.

40. 08/20/14
Resilience (2)
SWARM THEORY
ALLIGNMENT
COHESION
SEPERATION
SWARM: On a system level, a swarm is hardly
vulnerable
System Properties:
• High Degree of Redundancy (Individuals)
• Flexibility/Robustness
• Adaptive Behavior
• Responsiveness/Reorganization
Organizational Properties:
• Decentralized (no central command)
• Systems behavior is emergent
Slide Ref: William Veerbeek, VIRUS and SOUP

41. When does a HAZARD lead to a
Disaster ?
The DM Act, 2005
“Disaster” means a catastrophe , mishap, calamity or
grave occurrence in any area , arising from natural
or manmade causes, or by accident or negligence
which results in substantial loss of life or human
suffering or damage to, and destruction of ,
property, or damage to, or degradation of ,
environment , and is of such nature or magnitude
to be beyond the coping capacity of the community
of the affected areas;

42. 08/20/14
Disaster
• A serious disruption
of the functioning of
a community or a
society involving
widespread human,
material, economic
or environmental
losses and impacts,
which exceeds the
ability of the
affected community
or society to cope
using its own
resources.

43. International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) Fourth
Assessment 2007 Report
concludes that the Global
Warming is Unequivocal, and
that the earth's climate is
warming.
08/20/14
The Climate Change Problem:
The report also confirms that the current
atmospheric concentration of Carbon
dioxide and Methane, the two important
heat-trapping gases, "exceeds by far the
natural range over the last 6,50,000
years."

44. CC Processes,
Characteristics
& Threats
08/20/14
Source: UNEP/GRID–Arendal, 'Climate change: processes, characteristics and threats', designed by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID–Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005,
<http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_processes_characteristics_and_threats>

47. • …climate change will
bring a range of impacts
that affected populations
will not be able to adapt
to
08/20/14

48. Number of People Killed(Income Class/Disaster Type)
(1975-2000) World Summary
87,414(4.41%)
27,010(1.36%)
520,418(26.25%)
1,347,504(67.98%)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Low Income
Low income
Lower-middle
Lower Middle Income
income
Upper-middle
Upper Middle Income
income
High income
High Income
Income Class
Number of People Killed('000s)
Drought Earthquake Epidemic Flood Slide V olcano Wind storm Others
CC impacts: more
risk
superimposed
over
increasing-risk
pattern…
and
increasing
inequality
Source: EM-DAT, OFDA/CRED, Brussels, world data 1900-2004:

49. 08/20/14
Climate Change Adaptation
• refers to actions taken to limit the
negative impact of climate change on
human systems.
• This can be defined as “initiatives and
measures to reduce the vulnerability
of natural and human systems
against actual or expected climate
change effects” (IPCC, 2007b).
• This includes actions taken to limit
the impacts of both the slow trends
associated with climate change, such
as sea level rise or less predictable
rainfall, and adaptation to increased
frequency and magnitude of climatic
hazards.

51. GENESIS Contd.,
 EARLIER CONCEPT – Reactive
4 R
Rescue
Recovery
Relief
Rehabilitation
 PRESENT CONCEPT - Proactive
Planning
Prevention
Preparedness
Response

54. Crunch model
1. Disaster happens only when a hazard affects vulnerable people
and these two elements come together.
2. A natural phenomenon by itself is not a disaster;
3. Population maybe vulnerable for many years, yet without the
“trigger event”, there is no disaster.
4. Vulnerability - a pressure that is rooted in socio-economic and
political processes - is built up and has to be addressed, or
released, to reduce the risk of a disaster. These processes may
include poverty, age-related discrimination, exclusion or
exploitation based on gender, ethnic or religious factors. The
outcome will be “safe” as opposed to “unsafe conditions”,
5. Resilient or capable communities” as opposed to “vulnerable
communities” and “sustainable livelihoods” as opposed to
“unsustainable livelihoods”.

56. • For example, for people living by a river prone to sudden
onset flooding:
• • “unsafe conditions” may be: poor housing conditions, dangerous
location, risky livelihoods, lack of disaster preparedness skills, etc.
• • “dynamic pressures” may be: no community organization for collective
efforts to reduce flood risks, rapid migration tendencies that change the
social structure, the lack of local markets for small farmers to sell their
produces or buy agricultural inputs, etc.
• • “root causes” may be: government negligence of sand mining in that
river, the lack of government policy on flood warning systems and land
use planning, poor men and women are not allowed to attend meetings
on flood mitigation and emergency response preparedness, etc.

57. Linking DRR & Climate Change
Climate Change
Mitigation
Climate Change Adaptation

59. Convergence of CCA and DRR (Turnbull
08/20/14
et al., 2013)

60. 08/20/14

61. 08/20/14

63. 108 SERVICE NOEC
Early
Warning
SEOC
Nodal
Department
DEOC
Sub Division/
Block CR
VDRC
Communi
ty Victims
Communi
ty Victims
Communi
ty Victims
Flow of Information: NOEC to Grassroots level

64. The information flow when warning signals are available:
Central nodal
agency (IMD-CWC)
NEOC/NDMA/MHA
Chief Secy. /Pr-Secy.
Revenue/ SEOC
DEOC/Deputy
Commissioner/DDMA
SDM
All nodal
Departments
ESF
BDO / Tehsildar
Village Pradhan / Village
Disaster Management
Committee
All nodal
Departments
All nodal
Functionaries
All nodal
Functionaries

65. Information flow in situation when early warnings are
not available:
Village Disaster Management Committee/
Panchayat Functionary
BDO/Tehsildar
SDM/CR
DEOC/DDMA
SEOC/SEC/SDMA
NEOC/NDMA
All Concerned
All Concerned
All Concerned

66. Relief Commissioner / FC
Revenue
Nodal Department
State Emergency
Operation Centre (SEOC)
SEOC In charge (Special /
Additional / Deputy Secretary
Revenue)
Supporting Staff
State Level Committee
(SLC) (SDRF)
State Disaster Management
Authority (SDMA)
State Executive
Committee (SEC)
District Emergency
Operation Centre
Sub Divisional Emergency
Operation Centre (EOC)
Tehsil/sub-The/Block
Emergency Operation
Centre (CR)
District Disaster
Management Authority
(Chairman- DC) / RO
ncident Commander
(ADC/ADM)
Sub Divisional Disaster
Management
Committee/ Incident
Response Team (IRT)-
SDM
Tehsil/ Sub Tehsil
/Block/IRT Disaster
Management Committee
Panchayat level/Village
Disaster Response
Committee
District DM
Technical /Advisory
Committee(s)

67. 08/20/14

68. IT IS BETTER TO HAVE A PLAN
WITHOUT A DISASTER, THAN TO
HAVE A DISASTER WITHOUT A PLAN

69. WHY THIS EXERCISE ?
To live,
To save,
progress
And to prosper

70. NEED
Culture of
Prevention &
Mitigation
Culture of
Strategic Thinking
Culture of
Preparedness
Culture of
Quick Response