This document provides a PESTEL and risk analysis of the retail industry in India. It begins with an overview of the Indian retail industry, including key statistics on organized and unorganized retail revenue. It then analyzes the political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors impacting the industry. The top five risks are identified as corruption, strikes/unrest, political instability, crime, and cybersecurity issues. Opportunities in the industry include the large number of retail outlets, rural market potential, private labels, and sourcing. Challenges include lack of retail space, talent shortage, economic issues, inefficient supply chains, and labor regulations. Ahmedabad and Amarawati are recommended as preferred locations for

1. PESTEL AND RISK
PROFILING OF INDIA
Prepared By:-
Deepak Varghese (M-14-02)
Dixon D. Palett (M-14-04)
Ishan Parashar (M-14-06)
Soham Das (M-14-16)
11/16/2015 1
Course:- International Business
Course Facilitator:- Dr. S.K. Kar

2. Indian Retail Industry
■ The Indian retail industry is driven by twin-growth engines - Economic growth &
demographic profile.
■ The biggest challenge and opportunity : unique structure.
■ 92% - unorganized sector - Huge potential for growth and consolidation.
■ Revenue - organized retail – INR 2.4 trillion (2013)
INR 5.5 trillion (2019-E)
■ Remarkable position in global retail rankings; often remarked to have high
market potential, low economic risk, and moderate political risk.
11/16/2015 2

3. Top Retailers
■ Reliance Group
■ TATA Group (Westside, Titan, etc.)
■ AV Birla Group (Pantaloons)
■ K Raheja Group (Shoppers Stop)
■ RPG Group (Spencers)
■ Future Group (Big Bazar)
11/16/2015 3

4. PESTEL
11/16/2015 4

5. Political
■ Govt. has eased FDI across 15 key sectors, which include single brand retail and e-
Commerce. (Indian Express)
■ For online presence , single brand retail companies should have a brick-and-mortar outlet
in India. ( Flipkart , snapdeal etc. ) (articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com)
■ Indian manufacturers with foreign investment that are controlled by Indians can now sell
their products through online channels (30% of the output should be sourced from locals
– Make In India) – Relaxation ~ high Tech Cos – eg. Apple , Rolex , IKEA
■ According to recent DIPP notification, FDI cap for multi-brand retailing increased to 49%
without Govt. approval.
11/16/2015 5

6. Political
■ Service tax increased from 13.56% to 14%
■ VAT varies as levied by state government.
■ Octroi levied on inter state transport of goods.
■ Current Government is pushing for GST (unified tax regime).
11/16/2015 6

7. Economic
• India’s real GDP stands at $2.1 trillion, ( World Bank )
• The Economic Survey 2014-15 forecasts a growth rate of over 8% for FY16,
as compared to the growth rate of 7.4% in FY15
• Private investment to be the engine of long-run growth
• Inflation likely to remain in the 5~ 5.5% range, creating space for easing of
monetary conditions
• Foreign portfolio flows have stabilized the Rupee.
• Fiscal deficit target of 4.1 % appears achievable
• In FY 2014, services contributed 65 % to GDP followed by industry (18%)
and agriculture (17%).
11/16/2015 7

8. Social
■ Immensely rich cultural heritage including numerous languages, traditions
and people.
■ The 2nd most populous country with over 1.25 billion people, and the most
populous democracy in the world.
■ India has quite a young population with 27.6% of the population (25-44
years)
■ While India's per capita income is low, the average household size and
consequent household incomes are relatively high.
■ India's per capita income (nominal) was $ 1570 in 2013, ranked at 120th
out of 164 countries by the World Bank.
11/16/2015 8

9. Technological
■ The Magic Mirror (Intelligent Photo Booth)
■ CRM - shift from product-centric to customer-centric
■ Mobile Money offers a complimentary mechanism for delivering
benefits to a large proportion of population. (eg. PayTm )
■ New Business Intelligence: Swarm intelligence, Swarm
optimization, BiS intelligence ,etc.
11/16/2015 9

10. Legal
■ All employees earning up to Rs.10,000/- a month are eligible for a minimum bonus
of 8.33% of their annual salary and a maximum of 20%. This ceiling takes into
account any productivity-linked bonus that employers may offer.
■ Labor law recast to add more leave to maternity
■ Gratuity to be made portable
11/16/2015 10

11. Environmental
■ Ban & prohibition on the plastic carry bags thickness of 40microns
and above (Section3,6&5 of the environment Protection Act 1986)
■ Recycling standards for plastic bags used (Recycled Plastics
Manufacture and Usage Rules,1999)
■ Places like Delhi has started to impose GREEN TAXES on commercial
vehicles passing through the city
11/16/2015 11

12. RISK PROFILING
11/16/2015 12

13. Top 5 Risks
1. Corruption, Bribery and Corporate Frauds
2. Strikes, Closures & Unrest
3. Political & Governance Instability
4. Crime
5. Information and Cyber Insecurity
11/16/2015 13
Source:- FICCI

14. Corruption, Bribery and Corporate Frauds
■ Recognized as major risks that affect businesses
in India
■ Major frauds and scandals have come to light in
the last few years
■ Huge losses happen due to incidents of fraud
■ Government has now made considerable efforts to
investigate these incidents of corporate frauds and
bring the culprits to book (whistle blower programs)
11/16/2015 14

15. Strikes, Closures & Unrest
■ Graded as the second-most disturbing risk that affects
the business environment in India
■ Frequent disruption of business of multinational
companies
■ Affect of strikes is more felt when strikes called by
political parties
■ Disrupt normal life and in turn the functioning of
corporations
11/16/2015 15

16. Political & Governance Instability
■ Made an entry into the top five risks last year
■ Slowing down of decisions in certain key
economic initiatives due to bureaucratic
interferences
■ Coalition governments like UPA-2 creates lot of
hindrances in functioning due to varied and
sometimes contradicting interests
■ Regional and caste-based politics also
interfere a lot in the functioning of an
organization
11/16/2015 16

17. Crime
■ Crime has been graded as the 4th risk in India
■ India remains as one of the violence prone nations with violent
crimes registering a 65 % increase
■ Foreign respondents to the survey have also recognized the
increasing percentage of crime as one of the major dampeners
that inhibit prospects of business in India [FICCI, 2014]
11/16/2015 17

18. Information and Cyber Insecurity
■ This is the 5th most important risk in the regard
■ Improvement in the risk rating which in 2012
was the top risk and this year it has been
graded as the No 5 risk (overall awareness of IT
security amongst the IT companies in India)
[FICCI, 2014]
■ International publicity that hackers get and the
opportunity to portray the company in poor light
is the major incentive
11/16/2015 18

19. 11/16/2015 19
Source:- FICCI

20. 11/16/2015 20
Source:- FICCI

21. 11/16/2015 21
Source:- FICCI

22. 11/16/2015 22
Source:- FICCI

23. Risk Profiling (Overall)
11/16/2015 23
7.6
7.8
8
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
Strategic Risks
Operational RisksSafety Risks
1. Political and governance
instability
2. Terrorism and insurgency
3. Intellectual property theft
4. Natural risks
1. Corruption, bribery and
corporate frauds
2. Strikes, closures and unrest
3. Information and cyber security
4. Business espionage
1. Fire
2. Crime
3. Workplace and sexual
harassment
4. Accidents

24. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
11/16/2015 24

25. Opportunities
Large number of retail outlets
■ India is the 6th largest preferred retail destination globally by the prospective
investors, going by the FDI Confidence Index developed by AT Kearney
■ IKEA, the world’s largest furniture retailer, for instance, has announced an
ambitious plan to invest Rs 12,500 crore in the country and set up 25 stores over
the next 10 years
Rural markets offer significant growth potential
■ With increasing investment in infrastructure, retailers would be able to increase
their access to high-growth potential rural markets.
■ Various rural development programs have been introduced by Central and state
governments which have been instrumental for an upsurge of employment
opportunities for the rural poor.
11/16/2015 25

26. Opportunities
Private label opportunities
■ The organized Indian retail industry has begun experiencing an increased level of activity
in the private label space.
■ For product categories like FMCG, fruits, vegetables which may be bought on daily basis, a
good quality can draw a premium price from the consumers at the higher end who are not
very sensitive to price as compared to quality.
Sourcing base
■ India’s price competitiveness attracts large retail players to use it as a sourcing base
■ Global retailers are moving from 3rd-party buying offices to establishing their own wholly-
owned/wholly managed sourcing and buying offices.
11/16/2015 26

27. Opportunities
Luxury retailing
■ The Indian consumer is ready to splurge on luxury items and is increasingly doing
so.
■ This rate of growth has been triggered by accelerating influence of the affluent
class, high net worth individuals, ever growing middle class population,
sophisticated consumers with a desire for exclusive products and several other
related factors.
New Goods and Service Tax (GST) to simplify Tax Structure
■ Elimination of tax cascading is expected to lower input costs and improve
profitability.
■ The application of tax at all points of supply chain is likely to require adjustments to
profit margins for retailers.
■ Distributors are also expected to experience cash flow from collection of GST in their
sales.
11/16/2015 27

28. Challenges
Lack of Retail space
■ One of the biggest challenges facing the Indian organized retail sector is the lack of
retail space.
■ The per capita retail space in India is among the lowest in the world while it boasts
of one of the most attractive retail markets in the world.
Talent shortage & lack of trained manpower
■ There is a limitation of capabilities in the middle and top management due to
inadequate specialized training and depth of experience in the sector.
■ This in turn affects the streamlining of various activities that are essential to ensure
that efficacy of the retail value chain is maintained at an optimum level.
11/16/2015 28

29. Challenges
Economic challenges
■ They plague Indian modern retail on both demand and supply side.
■ On the demand side, throughputs are still not high enough as the average Indian consumer
is just getting used to modern trade practices.
■ Pricing and promotions are often poorly executed because the customer willingness and
ability to pay not leveraged adequately.
Inefficiency of supply chains
■ Supply chains consist of too many intermediaries which in turn driving up the operating
costs of the retailers.
■ Infrastructure issues like pitiable roads, poor means of transport, unreliable communication
systems, lack of uninterrupted electricity all contribute towards the ineptitude of supply
chains.
11/16/2015 29

30. Challenges
Effect of Labor Regulations
■ A number of studies have shown that burdensome labor regulations can hinder job
creation.
■ A research undertaken by World Bank (Mohammad Amin, 2008) concluded that labor
regulations in India’s retail sector are detrimental to job creation.
Bureaucratic hurdles
■ A plethora of clearances are required for setting up retail outlet which limits the expansion
of retail outlets at a faster pace.
■ Government restrictions on FDI limit are resulting in limited exposure to international best
practices.
11/16/2015 30

31. SUGGESTED LOCATIONS
11/16/2015 31

32. Where to invest?- future lies here
Based on several factors we recommend the following two cities as preferred locations to start business.
Ahmedabad Amarawati
11/16/2015 32

33. AHMEDABAD – DEMOGRAPHICAL ADVANTAGE
 The population of Ahmedabad is 7.2 million
 The sex ratio is 904 females per 1000 males.
 The literacy rate is 89%
 Ahmedabad is a growing cosmopolitan city with several ethnic groups residing there
 The GDP per capita of Ahmedabad is among the highest with around $16000
 As of 2013 Gujarat had one of the lowest urban unemployment rate.
 Unemployment rate of Gujarat is one the lowest which stood at 1% as of 2012
11/16/2015 33

34. WHY INVEST IN AHMEDABAD?
• Gujarat ranked 1st in Economic Freedom Index 2013 among all states
• World Bank raked Gujarat as the best state in India for ease of doing business
• Ahmedabad has a GDP of $119 (7th among metro cities)
• One of the fastest growing Tier 1 City of India
• Political stability is improving and recent huge developments like GIFT City
• Gujarat attracts one of the highest FDI in India
• Infrastructure is very developed in Ahmedabad (e.g: BRTS, Proposed Metro)
• PM Narendra Modi proposed direct air connectivity with London(UK) in his recent UK visit
• Disposable income among its citizens is one of the highest in India
• Huge customer base (market) due to its proximity to state capital Gandhinagar .
• Real Estate sector is growing at a neck break pace.
• Proposed industrial corridor between Mumbai and Ahmedabad is a huge boost.
• Huge coast-line with well developed ports like Kandla Port can boost international trade.
11/16/2015 34

35. AMARAWATI
• The State Government offers attractive land pooling schemes to investors
• Various tax incentives have also been announced for enticing prospects
• Amarawati is proposed to be developed on the lines of Singapore
• There will be an integrated network of 12km of Metro railways, 15km of Bus Rapid Transit systems,
7km of downtown roads, 26km of arterial and sub-arterial roads and 53km of collector roads.
• The capital region is close to Vijayawada and Guntur, two very developed and populous cities
• The Seed Capital Area will be home to about 3 lakh residents.
• Being developed as a vibrant business hub, about 7 lakh jobs are expected to be created in various
sectors, including in the government.
• There will be a thriving, state of the art, Central Business District (CBD) for business and living.
11/16/2015 35

36. Conclusion
■ Rising incomes, urbanization and attitudinal shifts reaffirm an optimistic outlook, pointing to
a certainty of growth in the future in the retail sector.
■ Large international retailers are contemplating to invest in India to leverage the strong
demand potential of the world’s fifth-largest consumer market.
■ They can look beyond the top 20 Indian cities, pro-actively exploring the retail space and
closely following mall developments across the country.
■ Though there are inevitable trade-offs as far as FDI in retail is concerned, its judicious
implementation can bring about unprecedented prosperity to the segment and a world-class
experience for the value-demanding Indian consumer.
11/16/2015 36

37. 11/16/2015 37
INDIA IS THE PLACE TO BE !

38. References
■ India Risk Survey- 2014, Pinkerton and FICCI
■ Crisil Research Estimates-2014
■ Households data for India Census of India 2011, Govt of India (2013)
■ www.trak.in
■ www.dailyo.in
■ articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com
■ http://indianexpress.com/
■ www.economictimes.com
■ www.indiaretailing.com
■ www.indianexpress.com
■ www.pestelanalysis.com
11/16/2015 38

39. THANK YOU!
11/16/2015 39