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Pres 131 carl spetzler july 27 2016
1.
www.sdg.com© 2015 by
Strategic Decisions Group International LLC. All rights reserved. DQ Decision Quality ISSIP Service Innovation Weekly Speaker Series July 27, 2016 Carl Spetzler
2.
DQ for Leaders
Page 2© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Decision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions By Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, and Jennifer Meyer (Wiley 2016) Dedication: To the many DQ champions who share our passion for making the common sense of decision quality truly common. Carl Spetzler CEO, Strategic Decisions Group Program Director, Stanford SDRM
3.
DQ for Leaders
Page 3© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Making Good Decisions Visioning Tone Setting Communi- cating Coaching Feedback Relationshp Building Teaching Motivating Peter Drucker The core function of Leaders and Executives is Decision Making. Making Good Decisions To win followers and achieve success Leaders must do many things … But
4.
DQ for Leaders
Page 4© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Why do smart people make poor decisions? Here are just a few reasons: • They frame the problem incorrectly and end up addressing the wrong problem. • The “good enough” syndrome encourages decision makers to latch on to the first or second option that comes their way when, with a bit more effort, they might find alternatives with much greater value. • The decision is based on irrelevant, unreliable or inadequate information. • Biases and false assumptions subvert rational thinking and analysis. • They have received extensive training in many areas, but rarely explicitly in the art and science of decision making. • Executives are sold an idea by a convincing advocate, instead of choosing among alternatives.
5.
DQ for Leaders
Page 5© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Confusing decisions and outcomes is endemic in most organizations. • We emphasize accountability and results, and we consider “good decision/bad outcome” as a lame excuse. • Accounting and incentive systems are usually backward-looking and only include outcomes. • When we have bad outcomes, we especially tend to confuse decisions and outcomes. – “I can’t remember someone claiming to have been lucky when they had a good outcome.” • Many organizations think clearly about decisions versus outcomes in some parts of their business (e.g., R&D, exploration), but then miss the distinction in the rest of their business. We need to carefully distinguish the quality of decisions and outcomes and track the quality of decisions.
6.
DQ for Leaders
Page 6© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com A good decision never turns into a bad decision, and a bad decision never turns into a good decision. Professor Ron Howard, Stanford University We must build quality into our decisions and our decision making processes.
7.
DQ for Leaders
Page 7© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com The challenge to good decision-making is overcoming organizational and analytical complexities. High Low Low HighAnalytical Complexity Organizational Complexity • Uncertainty • Dynamics; Options • Many interrelated important variables • Many parties in conflict • Individual and organizational differences in: - Values, desires, and motivation - Initial convictions - Fundamentally different frames - Personalities and competencies - Degrees of power and resource availability • Group dynamics— human nature in groups Decision Analysis Facilitative Leadership Common sense & rules of thumb Skill to Judge DQ • Many alternatives • Multiple interrelated decision criteria • Multiple players in competition -- gaming Rigorous DQ Process Skill to demand DQ
8.
DQ for Leaders
Page 8© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Five megabiases are the primary cause of dysfunctional decision-making in organizations. • Narrow Framing • Agreement Trap • Illusion of DQ • Comfort Zone Megabias • Advocacy/Approval Myth
9.
DQ for Leaders
Page 9© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com To reach DQ, we must meet six requirements. Requirements for Decision Quality Relevant and Reliable Information Clear Values and Tradeoffs Sound Reasoning Commitment to Action Appropriate Frame Creative Alternatives Like a chain, overall quality is no stronger than the weakest link.
10.
DQ for Leaders
Page 10© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com When it is not worth additional effort or delay to improve quality, we have reached 100%. Appropriate Frame Creative Alternatives Relevant and Reliable Information Clear Values and Tradeoffs Sound Reasoning Commitment to Action 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% DQ 1 2 3 4 5 6
11.
DQ for Leaders
Page 11© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Achieving DQ in simpler decisions starts with defining a good frame, includes iteration, and ends with commitment to action. Decision 1 2 3 4 5 6 Appropriate Frame Relevant and Reliable Information Clear Values and Tradeoffs Commitment to Action Creative Alternatives Sound Reasoning Tackling the requirements in one sequential pass is inefficient and a formula for failure.
12.
DQ for Leaders
Page 12© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Conduct a quick once-through to identify weak links and then dedicate a focused effort to strengthen them. Appropriate Frame Creative Alternatives Relevant and Reliable Information Clear Values and Tradeoffs Sound Reasoning Commitment to Action 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
13.
DQ for Leaders
Page 13© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Decision-makers and decision staff interact via the Dialogue Decision Process (DDP). Decision Board Project Team Project Team Decision Board
14.
DQ for Leaders
Page 14© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com Decision Board Project Team Recog- nize Situation Assess Situation Frame Agree on Frame Develop Alternatives Alternatives Agree on Alternatives Evaluate Alternatives Evaluated Alternatives Make Decision Plan for Implementation Evaluated Alternatives Plan Agree on Plan DQ For difficult strategic decisions, reaching DQ requires the Dialogue Decision Process (DDP). Dialogue Decision Process
15.
DQ for Leaders
Page 15© 2015 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. www.sdg.com The DQ body of knowledge and practice is a major improvement on common practice. • Maximize Value Potential – not just improve or fix a few decision traps. • A clear destination – 100 % DQ on the six elements of DQ – at the time of decision. • Incorporates uncertainty and other complexities – clear distinction between a good decision and a good outcome. • Recognition of biases and human nature – use of processes and tools to avoid decision traps. • Iteration is efficient and avoids the comfort zone bias. • Shift from the advocacy/approval process to DDP results in clarity of roles and a collaborative search for maximum value. • Applying DQ generates immense value potential: ROIs – like 600:1
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