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Using Business Rules to Make Processes
              Smarter, Simpler and More Agile



                  Session ID 1582
                  James Taylor
                  CEO
                  Decision Management Solutions
                  IBM IMPACT 2009 Conference
May 2009
James Taylor
 Independent consultant working with clients to :
    Find the right decisions to apply business rules, analytics
    Implement a decision management blueprint
    Maximize the value of existing technology investments

 Passionate advocate of decision management
 20 years experience in all aspects of software




                                                      © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                     2
The One Slide You Need
 Current business conditions require smarter, simpler and
  more agile processes
 Making business processes simpler, smarter and more agile
  requires managed, automated decisions
 Business rules are the best platform for automated
  decisions
 Analytics, not just your policies and expertise, must
  influence operational decisions
 Decisions take time to play out so you must test and learn
 Decision Management is the business discipline that best
  leverages business rules and puts analytics and
  optimization to work in every transaction
                                             © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                3
Businesses Are Facing Complex Challenges
                                                               Real-time
                          Timeliness
Days


                                                                Complex
                         Objectives
Straightforward
                                                              Trade-Offs


                        Regulations                Complex and global
Local and simple


                                                               Very High
                          Uncertainty
Low


                                                               Constant
                     Changes to Strategy
Every 3-5 Years


                                                            Increasingly
                       Decision-Making
Well-Defined
                                                               Complex


                                                                    High
Low
                     Operational Volume

                                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                               4
Businesses Must Respond
 Manage Uncertainty


 Ensure Compliance


 Improve Agility


 Cut Costs


 Resource Efficiency


 Core Application Value

                                     © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                            5
Business Process Management Delivers
 Manage Uncertainty            Process simulation and
                                 impact analysis
 Ensure Compliance             Run processes exactly as
                                 documented
 Improve Agility               Easier workflow and
                                 processes changes
 Cut Costs                     Avoid coding changes to
                                 multiple applications
 Resource Efficiency           Measure and adapt human
                                 workflow
 Core Application Value        Share processes across
                                 the enterprise
                                          © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                           6
But More Is Possible
 Manage Uncertainty            Predict and test the future


 Ensure Compliance             Demonstrate compliance in
                                 every action
 Improve Agility               Give business users control
                                 with stable processes
 Cut Costs                     Lower maintenance costs
                                 and fewer manual reviews
 Resource Efficiency           Focus people on higher
                                 value tasks
 Core Application Value        Modularize and modernize

                                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                           7
We Need Processes That Are
 Smarter
   Learn from data
   Learn through experimentation

 Simpler
   Transparent and Demonstrably Compliant
   Externalized decisions

 More Agile
   Business-Driven
   Process Agility AND Decision Agility

 And
   Operational
   Real-Time
   Customer-Centric
                                            © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   8
These Processes Make More Decisions



         Manual                          Not Made
                  Managed
Before

 After                                    Not Made
         Manual
                  Managed

          New
                         Larger boxes represent more decisions, by volume




                                                          Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 2007

                                                © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                     9
More And More Operational Decisions Can
                           Be Automated




                                        Expert
                                       Decisions

Value               Manual Decisions


        Automated
        Decisions




                         Complexity
                                                   Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 2007

                                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                         10
When All You Have Is A Hammer




Everything Looks Like A Nail

                        © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
             11
These Things Are Not The Same

Process                             Decision
 Business users determine           Business users determine
  sequence                            actions
 Based on business policies         Based on
  and services                        regulations, policies, expertise, a
                                      nalytics
 Rapidly model, assemble,
                                     Rapidly define and evolve the
  deploy, govern services
                                      behavior of a service
 Reuse business processes
                                     Reuse business rules across
  and services
                                      services
 End-to-end visibility of
                                     Visibility within critical business
  business process
                                      services
                                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                               12
A Vessel Underwriting Example
                                   Gather Policy
                                  Application Data
      May include customer
         visits, collection of
                  forms, etc.
                                   Validate Policy
                                   Completeness
        Triggers more data
                                                      Triggers rejection
         gathering process
                                     Reject Bad       process
                     steps
                                     Applicants


                                  Conduct Physical
                                    Inspections
Calculate risk and determine
 price, may trigger exception
                     handling
                                  Underwrite Policy
                                                                 Process Tasks
                                                                 Decision Tasks
                                      Process
                                     Paperwork
                                                          © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                          13
Decision Management
A business discipline that builds on existing
systems and processes to create processes
that:
   handle uncertainty
   support business objectives
   are flexible and business-led
   are compliant and easy to change
   are data-driven and constantly improve

                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                       14
Five Keys To Decision Management


                        Predictive Analytics
Business Rules
                         and Optimization


             Operational
              Decisions


Adaptive Control
                        Decision Analysis
 and Simulation


                                 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                   15
What Is A Decision Anyway?
 Decisions involve a choice, a selection of a course of action.
 Decisions are arrived at after some consideration
 Decisions ends uncertainty or dispute about something
 Decisions select from alternatives
 Decisions result in an action being taken, not just knowledge
  being added to what’s known.




                                                 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                  16
Delivering Decision Management


Decision Discovery



  Decision Services



     Decision Analysis

                            © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                     17
Delivering Decision Management
Decision Discovery
• Find and Prioritize
• Link to business objectives and measures
• Manage for reuse and consistency


     Decision Services
     • Define business rules for compliance
     • Empower business owners for agility
     • Analytically enhance for increased accuracy


          Decision Analysis
          • Measure then improve
          • Simulate, test and learn
          • Close the loop and optimize over time
                                                     © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   18
Different Kinds Of Decisions
                                         High
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIVIDUAL DECISION
                                                High-value,
                                                low-volume
                                                decisions

                                                          Medium-value,
                                                          medium-volume
                                                          decisions


                                                                        Low-value, high-
                                                                        volume decisions


                                         Low
                                                Low                                           High
                                                               DECISION VOLUME
                                                                          After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 2007
                                                                                    © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                                                 19
ALL Decisions Matter


“Most discussions of decision making assume
 that only senior executives make decisions
   or that only senior executives’ decisions
    matter. This is a dangerous mistake.”


               Peter Drucker




                                © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                     20
Decisions, Decisions, Decisions




                 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
      21
Better Results From Operational Decisions


20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
 8%
 6%
 4%
 2%
 0%
        Test Group 1       Test Group 2              Test Group 3
                       Blanket        Personalized

                                                      © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                 22
Types Of Operational Decisions
 Eligibility                            Risk
    “Is this person eligible for           Risk is acquired one
    this product/service”                  transaction at a time
    Should be made                         A big gap between a
    consistently every time.               good decision and a bad
    They are rules-based                   Analytics and rules

 Calculations                           Opportunity
    Mostly rules-based                     Customer-centric.
    The rules are generally                A small gap between
    fixed and repeatable.                  good and bad decisions.
    Calculations are often                 Analytics predict
    embedded in code                       response and potential
                                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   23
What Are Operational Decisions For?
                                                Event
                                                  2
                                        Event                   Event
                           What
                                          1                       3
Step 1        Step 2
                           Next?

                                                What
                                                Next?



   Should I
   do this?        ..or that?



                                                © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   24
Delivering Decision Management
Decision Discovery
• Find and Prioritize
• Link to business objectives and measures
• Manage for reuse and consistency


     Decision Services
     • Define business rules for compliance
     • Empower business owners for agility
     • Analytically enhance for increased accuracy


          Decision Analysis
          • Measure then improve
          • Simulate, test and learn
          • Close the loop and optimize over time
                                                     © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   25
Applications have evolved


 User Interface
   Browser




Process         Logic
  BPM




      Data
     Enterprise
     Database


                        © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
           26
Evolution Completed

                           What is a decision service?


                           A self-contained, callable
                           service with a view of all
                           the conditions and actions
                           that need to be considered
                           to make an operational
                           business decision.
                         Logic
Decision Services
                                 A service that answers a
                                 business question for other
                                 services and processes.




                                    © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                    27
Decisions Remain In Sync With Market Changes
    Conventional Approach                  Decision Management

             Other Systems
  CRM
                                       CRM
  System
                                                         Decision
                                       System
                                                         Service


                                                                                      Other Systems
                              Infrequent code changes
      Frequent code changes




Programmers                        Programmers

                                                  Frequent policy changes
Policy Changes




                                                        Businessusers
Businessusers
                                                                  Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 2.11

                                                             © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                  28
How People Make Decisions

                                Analysis of
  Context                       Information


                    Expertise
                      and
                   experience
    Pre-
conceptions
  & biases


               Policies and
               regulations




                                    © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
              29
The Decision Management Stack


       Business Process Management

        Decision Service

          Optimization      Adaptive
                             Control
Data                                       Monitoring
           Analytics
                            Simulation      Decision
           Business
                                            Analysis
            Rules

                 Platform



                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                   30
Building Decision Services

            Predictive
            Analytics

                                                               System
                                Decision
                                Service                      Business
            Business                                         Process
  Data
             Rules
Warehouse
                                  Enterprise IT Infrastructure



            Adaptive
                                                        Operational
            Control
                                                        Data Store




                                             Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 5.1


                                       © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                          31
Business Rules Drive Decisions




             Decision                      Regulations
Policy




History


                                 Experience
           Legacy Applications

                                 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                    32
Why Manage Business Rules
Reduce Costs
• Fewer resources, less time to change decisions
• Lower fines, legal costs from bad decisions
• Reduced IT costs to implement decisions

Improve Decision Making
• Clear policies and procedures
• Consistently applied across channels, systems
• Increased accuracy from business users control

Business Agility
• More rapid response to business threats
• Fewer missed opportunities
• Faster time to market
                                © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                 33
Business Rules Management System
                                           Decision Validation
                                           Services
                          Testing
 Validation
    and
 Verification


                                                          Decision
                                  Deployment
                                                          Service                                         Production
            Rule
                                                                                                          Application
          Repository
                                                            Rule
                                                           Engine

                                                                                          Rule Execution
                                                                                          Server
Design                Rule
 Tools             Management
                   Applications

                                                            Operational
                                     Rule Team               Database
                Rule Studio          Server


                                                                             After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 6.6


                                                                          © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                                    34
Process Rules are Not Decision Rules

    Flow control, routing

    Analyst/IT ownership

                                      Business
    Governed as part of

    the process
                                      Process
    Lifecycle dependent

                                       Rules
    on process lifecycle


                 Business Process


                                                 Decision Point
                                                              Business decision making
                                                          
                            Tasks                             Analyst/LOB Manager
                                                          
                                                              ownership
                                                              Governed by the business
                                                          
                                                              Independent lifecycle
                                                          

                                    Decision Rules
                                                                      After Gladys Lam, BRSolutions

                                                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                         35
Help the Business to Manage Decisions

                                                          I want to relax my
                                                          underwriting
                                                          policy

                                 I want to be able to
                                 promote a new product
So you business-                 combination
types want to be
able to change your
business rules?
                       I need to add the
                       new regulations




                      No…




                                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                            36
Which Would Your Users Prefer?
public class Application {
private Customer customers[];
private Customer goldCustomers[];
...
public void checkOrder() {
 for (int i = 0; i < numCustomers; i++) {
   Customer aCustomer = customers[i];
   if (aCustomer.checkIfGold()) {
    numGoldCustomers++;
    goldCustomers[numGoldCustomers] = aCustomer;
    if (aCustomer.getCurrentOrder().getAmount() > 100000)
     aCustomer.setSpecialDiscount (0.05);
   }
 }
}




                                                            © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                                       37
Or Maybe They Would Rather Use Word…




                       © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
              38
Rules reduce IT costs



Non-Programmers        No IT resources to
 Manage Rules           make updates




   5 months                ROI 10-20x
                          v hard coding
 not 30 months


                              © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                  39
Five Keys To Decision Management


                        Predictive Analytics
Business Rules
                         and Optimization


             Operational
              Decisions


Adaptive Control
                        Decision Analysis
 and Simulation


                                 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                   40
Defining Analytics
 A process encompassing a range of techniques dealing with the
  collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of data to
  gain insight, reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and
  relationships.
 Data-driven insight for better decisions


 Analytics simplify data to amplify its value


 Predictive Analytics turn uncertainty into usable probability




                                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   41
Analytics Have Power




Customer      Online          Acquisition             Campaign
Retention   Conversion          Rates                 Response

 Fraud       Wasted            Crime                      Risk
             Spend




                                            © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                         42
The Challenge Is To Put Analytics To Work




                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                43
Data Mining - Improve Rules
                    High
                                           High income,
                  Income
                                      low-moderate education



                                                      Moderate-high education
Low-moderate
                                                       low-moderate income
income, young




                                  Education
                                                               High




                                                           Moderate education,
                                                         low income, middle-aged


   High



                Low education,
                  low income




                                                                © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                      44
Predictive Analytics – Add Insight




Member renews
Member fails to renew



                                   © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                        45
Straight Through Processing


 Eliminated many            Underwriters
 manual reviews             manage rules


           8 Point Reduction in
             Combined Ratio


  Focus on book             Improved risk
management, agents          management

                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                      46
Optimization Makes Sense when
 Have interrelated choices – circular dependencies or a need to
  change several variables at once
 Risk/reward trade-offs within a regulatory framework for instance
 Answer is not obvious and is more than a simple chain of
  calculations
 Trying to minimize or maximize something




                                                © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                 47
A mathematical process for finding the best
                                                                      Optimization
decision for a well defined problem –
highest profit, lowest cost etc.


                                               Decision
                                               Variables
                             Constraints



                                           Objective
                                           function




                                   Solver
                      Data                                 Solution


                                                               Variable 1: xxx
                                                               Variable 2: yyy
                                                               …
                                                                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                              48
Optimization and Rules
        Business          Modeling Team
         Analysts         Update Model
       Update Rules




         Rules    Configure
Data                          Solver                  Results
         Engine   Model




                                   © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                  49
Delivering Decision Management
Decision Discovery
• Find and Prioritize
• Link to business objectives and measures
• Manage for reuse and consistency


     Decision Services
     • Define business rules for compliance
     • Empower business owners for agility
     • Analytically enhance for increased accuracy


          Decision Analysis
          • Measure then improve
          • Simulate, test and learn
          • Close the loop and optimize over time
                                                     © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   50
Closing The Loops

           Information

                                             Evaluate
                                             Results
 Reaction             Decision
                                 Update                        Update
                                 Decision                      Models

             Action                         Business &
                                             Analytic
                                             Experts
                                      Create            Refine
                                    Challengers         Rules
Customer




                                              © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                            51
Impact May Take Time to Play Out




                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
        52
Simulation



             Constraints




 Market
Conditions



                     Assumptions




                               © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
               53
Scenarios




     © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
54
Decisions Make Processes Simpler




                  © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
         55
Sometimes MUCH Simpler




          © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
56
Business Rules Make Processes More Agile
Act in an agile and
   automated way                                                               Decide which
                               Acting              Sensing                     events matter




                                                                                          Improve
                                                                                          collaboration


                Communicating                            Strategizing



    Communicate
between business
          and IT
                                        Deciding
                                                                Analyze and test
                                                                possible rules
Source: Gartner (April 2006)                                       Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 1.3


                                                             © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                           57
Analytics Make Decisions (and Processes) Smarter

                                 Automate Decision
                                 Apply rules
            http://www.f



                                 Close the Loop
             Web



                                 Segment customers
          Call Centre

                                 Adaptive Control
            Email
                                 Predict risk, value
                                 Optimize decision
            Mobile




                                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                           58
Risk and Benefits

Process without Decisions              Process with Decisions
 Decisions an afterthought             Decisions first class object
 Decisions buried in process           Decisions linked not buried
 Process becomes complex               New process is simplified
 Inconsistency of rules likely         One version of rules
 Decisions only evolve with            Independent process &
  process                                decision changes
 Hard to share decisions               Decisions (and Decision
                                         Services) are reusable


                                                   © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                  59
Decision Services At The Center




                 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
      60
“The essence of strategy is choosing to perform
      activities differently than rivals do.”

       Dr. Michael Porter, Harvard Business School




                                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                           61
Consequences Of Decision Management


      Business Control of Decisions


Externalization      Control and Agility   Integration Points
 from Legacy           in Business            for Advanced
 Applications           Processes               Analytics



                  Focus on Decisions



                                            © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                             62
Some IBM Examples
Process                Results

                       • Speed to market gain over 50%
Healthcare Claims
                       • Changes to business rules now implemented in
Processing
                         days
                       • Significant productivity gain on 1M+ claims
                         processed on a monthly basis
                       • 93% improvement for approval - 15 days to 1
Commercial Loan
                       • Cost savings from greater control & easier audits
Origination


                       • Better service - clear & consistent processing
Government Social
                       • Transparency & auditability
Benefits Eligibility
                       • Rapid response to changes in government
                         policies


                                                     © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                     63
Action Plan
 Identify your decisions                Adopt Business Rules
    Decisions that matter to                Approach and technology
    customers                               Management and governance
    Hidden decisions                        Change the relationship
    Transactional decisions                 between business and IT

 Consider                               Investigate Data Mining
                                          and Predictive Analytics
    Who takes them now
                                            Data Mining for rules
    What drives changes in them
                                            Predictive reporting
    What the context is for them
                                            Executable analytics
 Assess
                                         Build Adaptive Control into
    Change Readiness
                                          your applications
    Technology adoption
    Organizational change
                                                     © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   64
The One Slide You Need
 Current business conditions require smarter, simpler and
  more agile processes
 Making business processes simpler, smarter and more agile
  requires managed, automated decisions
 Business rules are the best platform for automated
  decisions
 Analytics, not just your policies and expertise, must
  influence operational decisions
 Decisions take time to play out so you must test and learn
 Decision Management is the business discipline that best
  leverages business rules and puts analytics and
  optimization to work in every transaction
                                             © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                               65
More on Decision Management




 jtonedm.com
                      decisionmanagementsolutions.com

                                                         smartenoughsystems.com




   ebizq.net/blogs/
                                                    brcommunity.com/taylor.php
decision_management

                james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com
                                                        © Decision Management Solutions, 2009
                                   66

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Using business rules to make processes simpler, smarter and more agile

  • 1. Using Business Rules to Make Processes Smarter, Simpler and More Agile Session ID 1582 James Taylor CEO Decision Management Solutions IBM IMPACT 2009 Conference May 2009
  • 2. James Taylor  Independent consultant working with clients to : Find the right decisions to apply business rules, analytics Implement a decision management blueprint Maximize the value of existing technology investments  Passionate advocate of decision management  20 years experience in all aspects of software © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 2
  • 3. The One Slide You Need  Current business conditions require smarter, simpler and more agile processes  Making business processes simpler, smarter and more agile requires managed, automated decisions  Business rules are the best platform for automated decisions  Analytics, not just your policies and expertise, must influence operational decisions  Decisions take time to play out so you must test and learn  Decision Management is the business discipline that best leverages business rules and puts analytics and optimization to work in every transaction © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 3
  • 4. Businesses Are Facing Complex Challenges Real-time Timeliness Days Complex Objectives Straightforward Trade-Offs Regulations Complex and global Local and simple Very High Uncertainty Low Constant Changes to Strategy Every 3-5 Years Increasingly Decision-Making Well-Defined Complex High Low Operational Volume © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 4
  • 5. Businesses Must Respond  Manage Uncertainty  Ensure Compliance  Improve Agility  Cut Costs  Resource Efficiency  Core Application Value © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 5
  • 6. Business Process Management Delivers  Manage Uncertainty  Process simulation and impact analysis  Ensure Compliance  Run processes exactly as documented  Improve Agility  Easier workflow and processes changes  Cut Costs  Avoid coding changes to multiple applications  Resource Efficiency  Measure and adapt human workflow  Core Application Value  Share processes across the enterprise © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 6
  • 7. But More Is Possible  Manage Uncertainty  Predict and test the future  Ensure Compliance  Demonstrate compliance in every action  Improve Agility  Give business users control with stable processes  Cut Costs  Lower maintenance costs and fewer manual reviews  Resource Efficiency  Focus people on higher value tasks  Core Application Value  Modularize and modernize © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 7
  • 8. We Need Processes That Are  Smarter Learn from data Learn through experimentation  Simpler Transparent and Demonstrably Compliant Externalized decisions  More Agile Business-Driven Process Agility AND Decision Agility  And Operational Real-Time Customer-Centric © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 8
  • 9. These Processes Make More Decisions Manual Not Made Managed Before After Not Made Manual Managed New Larger boxes represent more decisions, by volume Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 2007 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 9
  • 10. More And More Operational Decisions Can Be Automated Expert Decisions Value Manual Decisions Automated Decisions Complexity Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 2007 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 10
  • 11. When All You Have Is A Hammer Everything Looks Like A Nail © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 11
  • 12. These Things Are Not The Same Process Decision  Business users determine  Business users determine sequence actions  Based on business policies  Based on and services regulations, policies, expertise, a nalytics  Rapidly model, assemble,  Rapidly define and evolve the deploy, govern services behavior of a service  Reuse business processes  Reuse business rules across and services services  End-to-end visibility of  Visibility within critical business business process services © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 12
  • 13. A Vessel Underwriting Example Gather Policy Application Data May include customer visits, collection of forms, etc. Validate Policy Completeness Triggers more data Triggers rejection gathering process Reject Bad process steps Applicants Conduct Physical Inspections Calculate risk and determine price, may trigger exception handling Underwrite Policy  Process Tasks  Decision Tasks Process Paperwork © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 13
  • 14. Decision Management A business discipline that builds on existing systems and processes to create processes that: handle uncertainty support business objectives are flexible and business-led are compliant and easy to change are data-driven and constantly improve © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 14
  • 15. Five Keys To Decision Management Predictive Analytics Business Rules and Optimization Operational Decisions Adaptive Control Decision Analysis and Simulation © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 15
  • 16. What Is A Decision Anyway?  Decisions involve a choice, a selection of a course of action.  Decisions are arrived at after some consideration  Decisions ends uncertainty or dispute about something  Decisions select from alternatives  Decisions result in an action being taken, not just knowledge being added to what’s known. © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 16
  • 17. Delivering Decision Management Decision Discovery Decision Services Decision Analysis © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 17
  • 18. Delivering Decision Management Decision Discovery • Find and Prioritize • Link to business objectives and measures • Manage for reuse and consistency Decision Services • Define business rules for compliance • Empower business owners for agility • Analytically enhance for increased accuracy Decision Analysis • Measure then improve • Simulate, test and learn • Close the loop and optimize over time © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 18
  • 19. Different Kinds Of Decisions High ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INDIVIDUAL DECISION High-value, low-volume decisions Medium-value, medium-volume decisions Low-value, high- volume decisions Low Low High DECISION VOLUME After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 2007 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 19
  • 20. ALL Decisions Matter “Most discussions of decision making assume that only senior executives make decisions or that only senior executives’ decisions matter. This is a dangerous mistake.” Peter Drucker © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 20
  • 21. Decisions, Decisions, Decisions © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 21
  • 22. Better Results From Operational Decisions 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Test Group 1 Test Group 2 Test Group 3 Blanket Personalized © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 22
  • 23. Types Of Operational Decisions  Eligibility  Risk “Is this person eligible for Risk is acquired one this product/service” transaction at a time Should be made A big gap between a consistently every time. good decision and a bad They are rules-based Analytics and rules  Calculations  Opportunity Mostly rules-based Customer-centric. The rules are generally A small gap between fixed and repeatable. good and bad decisions. Calculations are often Analytics predict embedded in code response and potential © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 23
  • 24. What Are Operational Decisions For? Event 2 Event Event What 1 3 Step 1 Step 2 Next? What Next? Should I do this? ..or that? © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 24
  • 25. Delivering Decision Management Decision Discovery • Find and Prioritize • Link to business objectives and measures • Manage for reuse and consistency Decision Services • Define business rules for compliance • Empower business owners for agility • Analytically enhance for increased accuracy Decision Analysis • Measure then improve • Simulate, test and learn • Close the loop and optimize over time © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 25
  • 26. Applications have evolved User Interface Browser Process Logic BPM Data Enterprise Database © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 26
  • 27. Evolution Completed What is a decision service? A self-contained, callable service with a view of all the conditions and actions that need to be considered to make an operational business decision. Logic Decision Services A service that answers a business question for other services and processes. © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 27
  • 28. Decisions Remain In Sync With Market Changes Conventional Approach Decision Management Other Systems CRM CRM System Decision System Service Other Systems Infrequent code changes Frequent code changes Programmers Programmers Frequent policy changes Policy Changes Businessusers Businessusers Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 2.11 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 28
  • 29. How People Make Decisions Analysis of Context Information Expertise and experience Pre- conceptions & biases Policies and regulations © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 29
  • 30. The Decision Management Stack Business Process Management Decision Service Optimization Adaptive Control Data Monitoring Analytics Simulation Decision Business Analysis Rules Platform © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 30
  • 31. Building Decision Services Predictive Analytics System Decision Service Business Business Process Data Rules Warehouse Enterprise IT Infrastructure Adaptive Operational Control Data Store Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 5.1 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 31
  • 32. Business Rules Drive Decisions Decision Regulations Policy History Experience Legacy Applications © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 32
  • 33. Why Manage Business Rules Reduce Costs • Fewer resources, less time to change decisions • Lower fines, legal costs from bad decisions • Reduced IT costs to implement decisions Improve Decision Making • Clear policies and procedures • Consistently applied across channels, systems • Increased accuracy from business users control Business Agility • More rapid response to business threats • Fewer missed opportunities • Faster time to market © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 33
  • 34. Business Rules Management System Decision Validation Services Testing Validation and Verification Decision Deployment Service Production Rule Application Repository Rule Engine Rule Execution Server Design Rule Tools Management Applications Operational Rule Team Database Rule Studio Server After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 6.6 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 34
  • 35. Process Rules are Not Decision Rules Flow control, routing  Analyst/IT ownership  Business Governed as part of  the process Process Lifecycle dependent  Rules on process lifecycle Business Process Decision Point Business decision making  Tasks Analyst/LOB Manager  ownership Governed by the business  Independent lifecycle  Decision Rules After Gladys Lam, BRSolutions © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 35
  • 36. Help the Business to Manage Decisions I want to relax my underwriting policy I want to be able to promote a new product So you business- combination types want to be able to change your business rules? I need to add the new regulations No… © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 36
  • 37. Which Would Your Users Prefer? public class Application { private Customer customers[]; private Customer goldCustomers[]; ... public void checkOrder() { for (int i = 0; i < numCustomers; i++) { Customer aCustomer = customers[i]; if (aCustomer.checkIfGold()) { numGoldCustomers++; goldCustomers[numGoldCustomers] = aCustomer; if (aCustomer.getCurrentOrder().getAmount() > 100000) aCustomer.setSpecialDiscount (0.05); } } } © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 37
  • 38. Or Maybe They Would Rather Use Word… © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 38
  • 39. Rules reduce IT costs Non-Programmers No IT resources to Manage Rules make updates 5 months ROI 10-20x v hard coding not 30 months © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 39
  • 40. Five Keys To Decision Management Predictive Analytics Business Rules and Optimization Operational Decisions Adaptive Control Decision Analysis and Simulation © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 40
  • 41. Defining Analytics  A process encompassing a range of techniques dealing with the collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of data to gain insight, reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships.  Data-driven insight for better decisions  Analytics simplify data to amplify its value  Predictive Analytics turn uncertainty into usable probability © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 41
  • 42. Analytics Have Power Customer Online Acquisition Campaign Retention Conversion Rates Response Fraud Wasted Crime Risk Spend © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 42
  • 43. The Challenge Is To Put Analytics To Work © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 43
  • 44. Data Mining - Improve Rules High High income, Income low-moderate education Moderate-high education Low-moderate low-moderate income income, young Education High Moderate education, low income, middle-aged High Low education, low income © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 44
  • 45. Predictive Analytics – Add Insight Member renews Member fails to renew © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 45
  • 46. Straight Through Processing Eliminated many Underwriters manual reviews manage rules 8 Point Reduction in Combined Ratio Focus on book Improved risk management, agents management © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 46
  • 47. Optimization Makes Sense when  Have interrelated choices – circular dependencies or a need to change several variables at once  Risk/reward trade-offs within a regulatory framework for instance  Answer is not obvious and is more than a simple chain of calculations  Trying to minimize or maximize something © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 47
  • 48. A mathematical process for finding the best Optimization decision for a well defined problem – highest profit, lowest cost etc. Decision Variables Constraints Objective function Solver Data Solution Variable 1: xxx Variable 2: yyy … © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 48
  • 49. Optimization and Rules Business Modeling Team Analysts Update Model Update Rules Rules Configure Data Solver Results Engine Model © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 49
  • 50. Delivering Decision Management Decision Discovery • Find and Prioritize • Link to business objectives and measures • Manage for reuse and consistency Decision Services • Define business rules for compliance • Empower business owners for agility • Analytically enhance for increased accuracy Decision Analysis • Measure then improve • Simulate, test and learn • Close the loop and optimize over time © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 50
  • 51. Closing The Loops Information Evaluate Results Reaction Decision Update Update Decision Models Action Business & Analytic Experts Create Refine Challengers Rules Customer © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 51
  • 52. Impact May Take Time to Play Out © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 52
  • 53. Simulation Constraints Market Conditions Assumptions © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 53
  • 54. Scenarios © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 54
  • 55. Decisions Make Processes Simpler © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 55
  • 56. Sometimes MUCH Simpler © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 56
  • 57. Business Rules Make Processes More Agile Act in an agile and automated way Decide which Acting Sensing events matter Improve collaboration Communicating Strategizing Communicate between business and IT Deciding Analyze and test possible rules Source: Gartner (April 2006) Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 1.3 © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 57
  • 58. Analytics Make Decisions (and Processes) Smarter  Automate Decision  Apply rules http://www.f  Close the Loop Web  Segment customers Call Centre  Adaptive Control Email  Predict risk, value  Optimize decision Mobile © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 58
  • 59. Risk and Benefits Process without Decisions Process with Decisions  Decisions an afterthought  Decisions first class object  Decisions buried in process  Decisions linked not buried  Process becomes complex  New process is simplified  Inconsistency of rules likely  One version of rules  Decisions only evolve with  Independent process & process decision changes  Hard to share decisions  Decisions (and Decision Services) are reusable © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 59
  • 60. Decision Services At The Center © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 60
  • 61. “The essence of strategy is choosing to perform activities differently than rivals do.” Dr. Michael Porter, Harvard Business School © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 61
  • 62. Consequences Of Decision Management Business Control of Decisions Externalization Control and Agility Integration Points from Legacy in Business for Advanced Applications Processes Analytics Focus on Decisions © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 62
  • 63. Some IBM Examples Process Results • Speed to market gain over 50% Healthcare Claims • Changes to business rules now implemented in Processing days • Significant productivity gain on 1M+ claims processed on a monthly basis • 93% improvement for approval - 15 days to 1 Commercial Loan • Cost savings from greater control & easier audits Origination • Better service - clear & consistent processing Government Social • Transparency & auditability Benefits Eligibility • Rapid response to changes in government policies © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 63
  • 64. Action Plan  Identify your decisions  Adopt Business Rules Decisions that matter to Approach and technology customers Management and governance Hidden decisions Change the relationship Transactional decisions between business and IT  Consider  Investigate Data Mining and Predictive Analytics Who takes them now Data Mining for rules What drives changes in them Predictive reporting What the context is for them Executable analytics  Assess  Build Adaptive Control into Change Readiness your applications Technology adoption Organizational change © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 64
  • 65. The One Slide You Need  Current business conditions require smarter, simpler and more agile processes  Making business processes simpler, smarter and more agile requires managed, automated decisions  Business rules are the best platform for automated decisions  Analytics, not just your policies and expertise, must influence operational decisions  Decisions take time to play out so you must test and learn  Decision Management is the business discipline that best leverages business rules and puts analytics and optimization to work in every transaction © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 65
  • 66. More on Decision Management jtonedm.com decisionmanagementsolutions.com smartenoughsystems.com ebizq.net/blogs/ brcommunity.com/taylor.php decision_management james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com © Decision Management Solutions, 2009 66