Innovation and Futures Thinking - Are you Leading or Following?
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How can foresight and Futures Thinking Methodologies help on the Design of a successful and future-proof product or service? What are trends, scenarios or Black Swans? This presentation was given at Interaction South America as part of a workshop about the usage of trends and Lean Service Creation for service innovation and creation. The workshop is on its fourth edition and this time Ricardo Brito and Paul Houghton, my colleagues from Futurice, conducted the workshop and improved the material. I hope you enjoy!! A co-creation with Ricardo Brito, at Futurice.
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Innovation and Futures Thinking - Are you Leading or Following?
- 1. Innovation and Futures Thinking: Are You Leading or Following? @futurice @toastedric @mobile_rat @janevita
- 2. Who are we?
- 3. We create digital services for people to love. • Founded in 2000 • 200+ employees from 18 countries • 8th year in a row profitable growth • YOY growth 30%
- 4. Our toolbox
- 5. We build delightful digital services. And help our customers to succeed in digital business. • Analyzing business • Feeling people • Mastering technology
- 6. Using Future Thinking in Concept Design
- 7. Foresight1.
- 8. FORESIGHT Foreseeing the Future is the ability to forecast what will be needed or is going to happen in the future. Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
- 9. FORESIGHT IS NOT - Predict the future - Direct answers - Market Research or Business Intelligence Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
- 10. FORESIGHT IS - Combine familiar things in new ways - Makes you question your own “truths” - Inspire you to look from other angles - Helps to understand broader concepts - Helps the development of sustainable business - Helps find new business opportunities Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
- 11. FORESIGHT IS - Analyse the same date differently - Identify patterns, similarities - Professional intuition based on experience - Process today’s world to find tomorrow’s opportunities Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
- 12. Martin Raymond, The Future Laboratory “Working with Futures Thinking is not trying to predict the future, or having futuristic ideas. Futures Thinking is applying new and emergent cultural changes, after mapping and projecting these changes in a way that other people can understand and visualise them.”
- 13. WHERE ARE THEY? - Internal Consultants - Consultants and companies who offer Future Research, Foresight Services and Trend Analysis
- 15. Garlain, 2011 “There’s not a single future, but a whole spectrum of likely futures that depend on numerous possibilities, depending on decisions… …The aim is to shape our brains and strategic plans to be more flexible when facing the inevitability of the future.”
- 16. Mannermaa, 2004 “The most important thing for Futurologists is presenting as many alternatives and views as possible, they are the ones who will support the decisions to be made. ”
- 17. Holistic & Multidisciplinary Statistics Economics Politics Social Psychology Philosophy Culture History Antropology Sociology FUTURES RESEARCH Technology Referência: Aleksi Neuvonen, Demos Helsinki. Slideshare.
- 18. DATA TREND ANALYSIS PATTERN RECOGNITION INTUITION IMAGINATION A set of principles and practices that can be applied to solve complex problems and to envision desirable and sustainable ways of action + Source: Futures thinking process by Vanessa Miemis
- 19. BIG DATA
- 20. TREND ANALYSIS
- 23. An iterative process which helps you consider a range of possibilities, probably and preferable outcomes ASKING THE QUESTION SCANNING THE WORLD MAPPING POSSIBILITIES ASKING THE NEXT QUESTION Source: Futures thinking process by Jamais Cascio
- 24. Futurologists create expectations about the people’s and world’s future. Their goal is to support your efforts on shaping the future.
- 25. We can make more informed Business and Design decisions by foreseeing the future
- 26. ADAPTIVE ROBUST TRANSFORMATIONAL Futures Thinking develops the long-range outlook DESIGN FUTURE THINKING 21st CENTURY DESIGN NEEDS TO BE
- 28. Source: Sad Topographies Helps visualizing where we could be in the future Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
- 29. Source: Sad Topographies Supports business choosing which risks to take Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
- 30. Source: Sad Topographies Simplifies the complex is an easy and digestable way WORLD’S INFORMATION INSIGHTS AND PLANS Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
- 31. Source: Sad Topographies Business flexibility & new business oportunities Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
- 32. Future Thinking & Service Design7.
- 33. (Service) Design Thinking Futures Research Inovation BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY In 2012, Koskelo & Nousiainen studied the relationship between Service Design and Futures Research. Innovation was the result
- 34. INFORMATION COLLECTION PESTE Analysis INFORMATION PROCESSING STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IDENTIFICATION OF MARKET NEEDS CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT, TESTING AND REFINEMENT REALIZATION Technology Roadmap Delphi - Analysis Future table Cross-Impact Analysis Time-Series Analysis Trend Analysis Scenario working Futures table Strategy Working Alternative courses of actions Business Potential estimation of scenarios Competition Analysis Market orientated futures table Scenario storylines SWOT Market Potential Scenario based theme specific identification Concept Drafts Visualization Visionary Concepts Commerciali- zation Piloting Timing of market operations and R&D Cooperation & Networks FORESIGHT CONCEPTS FUTURES THINKING Foresight acIvity in the context of innovaIon process (Meristö 2009, as cited in Meristö and LaiInen 2009, 16).
- 35. UNDERSTANDING Empathic Conversations THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION Observation Ethnography Probes Future Scenarios Trend Analysis Affinity wall Personas Mental Models Stage Play Storyboard Journey Map Scenarios Concepts Prototypes Use Cases Scenario What If Service Blueprint Requirements Roadmapping Commerciali- zation Piloting Timing of market operations and R&D Cooperation & Networks RESEARCH CONCEPTS DESIGN OPERATION Multidisciplinary Processing Weak Signal exploration Non-Experts Co-Design Games Drama Co-Creative Tools Trend Cards What If Experience Priorities Deciding Priorities Agile Development Systematic Implementation SD PROCESS SUPPORTED BY FUTURES RESEARCH SOURCE: MORITZ 2005, 123; EDITED BY KOSKELO AND NOUSIAINEN BASED ON THEIR RESEARCH, 2012
- 36. FUTURES THINKING Scenarios PESTE Context Value Map Personas Trends Weak Signals Context Value Map Personas What if Roadmap Storytelling Play Prototype No constrains: Look far and beyond for alternative and desired contexts DEFINE & SCOPE PROCESS & IDEATE DELIVER & UTILIZE DESIGN THINKING Empathy and concreteness: People driven systems and solutions Source: La Futura
- 37. UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION INFORMATION COLLECTION INFORMATION PROCESSING STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IDENTIFICATION OF MARKET NEEDS CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT, TESTING AND REFINEMENT REALIZATION RESEARCH & KNOWLEDGE CREATION INTERPRET & DEVELOP CREATE & TEST FUTURES THINKING SERVICE DESIGN
- 39. RESEARCH & FIND ANALYSE & DIGEST CREATE DEFINE
- 40. FUTURE THINKING SERVICE DESIGN CONTEXT: Scenarios & Possibilities that influence Design choices
- 41. Applying Future Thinking in Design4.
- 42. RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS raw data, information…… Understanding the context of the problem and foresee opportunities
- 44. CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT Brings a bigger and wider prespective Exploring Scenario and Possibilities
- 47. Short term plan & Big Vision Development of a road map for the future CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
- 48. Weak Signals, Black Swans & Trends5.
- 49. Examples: Tinder, Facebook, Bimbi, Wearables…. - Your peers laugh at what you told - “Never going to happen” - People never heard about it, - As more people speak more about it more people get engaged Weak Signals Source: Hiltunen, 2010
- 51. - A rare and unexpected event with huge social implications - Can be made by Nature (tsunamis) - Can be made by Humans (scientific discoveries) Black Swans Source: Xtreme events, 2011
- 52. Can be the possible destiny of something new or different that might have a big impact over culture, society or a specific market. Raymond, 2009 Trend
- 53. A weak signal, behaviour change that becomes more regular, and changes people, products and ideas overtime. Trend
- 54. Trends can be compulsive, addictive and sometimes surprisingly viral when you least expected. Trend
- 55. Trends Classification MEGA TRENDS Where the world is heading MACRO TRENDS What people want MICRO TRENDS What does it means to my business
- 56. MICRO TREND Mass Market Ready New Intelligent Can be structure changing
- 58. MEGA TREND Broad and Profound Comprehensive and extend to all regions of the world Affects all actors: - Companies - Individuals - Governments Takes many years to become perceived
- 60. MICRO CULTURAL CHANGE Changes in values and attitudes of people BEHAVIORAL CHANGE Changes in practices, patterns and models SIGNALS First Manifestations GLOBAL CHANGE Changes across the globe MACRO MEGA OVER TIME Source: Based on Anu K. Nousiainen research
- 61. Trend cards help you to visualise trends. There is a big variety of models and canvases. The best one is the one you and your stakeholders feel comfortable with. They are a great summary for the subjects in a trend report. Trend cards
- 62. Examples
- 64. TREND6 Consumers become Creators Customers are becoming the designers. They will sell customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care more about what they can do or create. Futurice Oy, 2015
- 65. Customers are becoming the designers and the best design will be perceived as the one which will give the customer the power of creation. Consumers will not only buy from you but also sell the customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care less about what they have or buy and more about what they can do or create.. • 85% of the 2014 Best Global Brands have used crowdsourcing in the last 10 years. (eYeka) • The Best Global Brands are three times more likely to use crowdsourcing platforms than websites and social media for their crowdsourcing efforts. (eYeka) • There is a strong commercial case for personalization - those who are doing it report 14% uplift in sales. (e-consultancy) ! ! Privacy is a big thing when you create customers profile. Retailers need to treat it very seriously. Creepiness – avoid services that jus add extra work to customer, but rather gives an amazing and seamless experience. Find the right blend between customer creation and professional expertise. Always needs to be part of the brand strategy. New ways and channels to communicate with customers. Know from customers what they want and how much they are involved with your brand. Ideas about new services and also how to get the old ones improved. Create a controlled environment in which creation happens (ikeahackers, Bugatti, etc.) Trend intro Facts about the trend Challenges Opportunities Consumers become Creators Trend 6 Futurice Oy, 2015
- 68. ©2015 PSFK Labs
- 71. Scenarios6.
- 72. Source: Sad Topographies Scenarios are a good source of information to support Business and Design decisions for regarding the Future IDEA 1 Possible Future Scenario 2 Possible Future Scenario 3 Possible Future Scenario Today Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
- 73. Source: Sad Topographies Scenarios are guesses about the future, some more likely to happen than others Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
- 74. Scenarios are not predictions Scenarios can just be compared and not judged. There’s no better or worst, but more or less probable. Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
- 75. Scenarios Stories that can be analysed and synthesised, built in a sequential order based on possible futures. PROBABLE . POSSIBLE . PLAUSIBLE . DESIRED . REALISTIC . INSPIRING
- 76. Source: Sad Topographies To apply a scenario to your case, you need to contextualise it and analyse it from different prespectives BUSINESS DESIGN TECH
- 77. 7. WORKSHOP Yeaah! Finally some action!
- 78. Instructions 1. Form groups 2. Choose 1 or more trend Cards 3. Identify 3 Consumer Needs 4. Ideate 5. Create a poster 6. Create a Customer Journey 7. Write your elevator pitch 8. Present Ideas
- 79. SEGMENTS Private Companies & Businesses Government & Politics Economy & Monetization Media & Entertainment Science & Technology Arts & Culture Commerce Health & Well-Being Travel & Transports Education
- 80. Timeline Choose Segment Choose Trend Cards Identify 3 Consumer Needs Ideate Create poster Create a Customer Journey Write Elevator Pitch Present Ideas 10 min 10 min 10 min 30 min 15 min 15 min 15 min 5 min
- 81. Choose your trends BUSINESS TECH MARKETING SOCIAL FOOD CIVIC TECH RETAIL SOCIETY MY & MYSELF
- 82. Define your consumer needs Identify at least 3 consumer needs that relate to your area. This needs should to be addressed by your concept.
- 83. BASIC NEEDS Which deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address? What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created by the changes identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfy them? Who are other businesses applying this trend? Which (new) customer groups could you apply this trend to? What would you have to change? Why is this trend emerging now? What’s changing? How and where could you apply this trend to your business? Long-Term, Widespread, Macro SHIFTS Recent, Short-Term, Technologies TRIGGERS CONSUMER TREND CANVAS DRIVERS OF CHANGE TREND : INNOVATION POTENTIAL EMERGING COMSUMER EXPECTATIONS INSPIRATION WHO? BUSINESS IDEA Source: trendwatching.com | CONSUMER TREND CANVAS
- 84. Brainstorming Rules Defer Judgement Go for Quantity Encourage Wild Ideas Build on the Ideas of Others Stay Focused Be Visual