Carnegie Mellon University Intelligent Agents Document
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Within fifty years, we will build and deploy highly personalized intelligent agents that can help us find, set, and meet hard goals to improve our lives in meaningful ways that we choose. Think of it as a cross between a lifelong coach, a caring uncle, and an honest and supportive friend. Or, if you are into science fiction, consider it as a combination of Samantha in the movie Her, the Young Lady’s Primer from the book The Diamond Age, and Minds from Iain Bank’s The Culture series. Let’s call this agent Maslow.
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Carnegie Mellon University Intelligent Agents Document
- 1. ©2015CarnegieMellonUniversity:1 Intelligent Agents for Helping Humanity Reach Its Full Potential Jason Hong CSD50, Oct 24 2015
- 3. Smartphones are Pervasive • Over 1B smartphones sold last year • 75% penetration in the US as of late 2014 • Over 85B apps downloaded on each of Android and iOS
- 4. Fun Facts about Millennials 83% sleep with phones
- 5. Fun Facts about Millennials 83% sleep with phones 90% check first thing in morning
- 6. Fun Facts about Millennials 83% sleep with phones 90% check first thing in morning 1 in 3 use in bathroom
- 7. Smartphone Data is Intimate Who we know (contacts + call log) Sensors (accel, sound, light) Where we go (gps, photos)
- 8. The Opportunity • We are creating a worldwide sensor network with our smart devices • We can now capture and analyze human behavior at unprecedented fidelity and scale
- 9. Within fifty years, we will build and deploy highly personalized intelligent agents that can help us find, set, and meet hard goals to improve our lives in meaningful ways that we choose. Let’s call our intelligent agent Maslow.
- 17. Other Examples • I want to be more green • I want to learn painting • I want to be like <celebrity>
- 18. Self-Help Agents
- 19. Self-Help Agents
- 20. Self-Help Agents
- 21. Self-Help Agents
- 22. Is Maslow Possible in 50 Years? • Exabytes of video, communication data, sensor data generated every year • New algorithms for extracting behaviors – Low: Open pill box, get water, put pill in mouth – High: Took morning medication – Goal: Addressing heart condition – Outcome: More physical activity than last year – Outcome: Happier than last year
- 24. Brother Best Friend Time and Date of Phone Calls Length of Phone Calls Length of Phone Calls Time and Date of Phone Calls
Editor's Notes
- Talk for CSD50 celebration on future visions of CSD100
- I’ve been working on mobile computing and sensor-based systems for about 15 years now And I believe in the near future, our smart devices will know almost everything about us They will know whether we are depressed or not, what our carbon footprint is, and what our information needs are even before we even know what we need And these smart devices will allow us to make huge advances in areas as diverse as healthcare, sustainability, and transportation
- Smartphones are everywhere http://marketingland.com/report-us-smartphone-penetration-now-75-percent-117746 http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheets/mobile-technology-fact-sheet/ http://www.androidauthority.com/google-play-store-vs-the-apple-app-store-601836/
- From Pew Internet and Cisco 2012 study Main stats on this page are from: http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/enterprise/connected-world-technology-report/index.html#~2012 Additional stats about mobile phones: http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheets/mobile-technology-fact-sheet/ ----------------------- What’s also interesting are trends in how people use these smartphones http://blog.sciencecreative.com/2011/03/16/the-authentic-online-marketer/ http://www.generationalinsights.com/millennials-addicted-to-their-smartphones-some-suffer-nomophobia/ In fact, Millennials don’t just sleep with their smartphones. 75% use them in bed before going to sleep and 90% check them again first thing in the morning. Half use them while eating and third use them in the bathroom. A third check them every half hour. Another fifth check them every ten minutes. A quarter of them check them so frequently that they lose count. http://www.androidtapp.com/how-simple-is-your-smartphone-to-use-funny-videos/ Pew Research Center Around 83 percent of those 18- to 29-year-olds sleep with their cell phones within reach. http://persquaremile.com/category/suburbia/
- From Cisco report
- Also from Cisco report
- Pushing further, smartphone data is really intimate Location, call logs, SMS, pics, more
- A grand challenge for computer science http://www.flickr.com/photos/robby_van_moor/478725670/
- 10. Changes pt3 · Third, our physical and social environments also impact our ability to make these changes. - If it's not easy to get fresh food... - If we're surrounded by unhealthy snacks... - If the places we live are geared more for cars than for people... then it will be very hard to make effective changes.
- 9. Changes pt2 · Second, it's often very hard to understand what one actually needs to do to be healthy. · This picture shows typical instructions you might get from a doctor on how to be healthier. · Instead of vague instructions like "Follow a low salt diet" or "stop smoking", smart devices could help personalize things to your specific situation and needs
- 11. What if our smart devices could offer us personalized interventions? · Our health is the sum of many small decisions that we make every day · It's making the choice of taking the stairs instead of the escalator · or eating the apple instead of the cookie · or parking a bit further and walking · What if our smart devices could offer us personalized interventions to help improve our health?
- Gamification work? Social psychology techniques? Or behavioral economics techniques? 12. What if they could push us just a little bit each day, helping us do many small steps rather than one big step, and help us sustain these habits? · What if our smart devices could push us just a little bit each day, helping us do many small steps rather than one big step, and help us sustain these habits? · They might try to understand what kinds of interventions work best for us, whether it is using techniques from psychology like peer pressure or loss aversion, or using techniques like gamification to make being healthy more fun.
- Replace this image, need to own it http://www.womenshealthmag.com/fitness/exercise-while-watching-tv ----------- 13. Or it might also get you to link new desired behaviors with existing behaviors. · Our smart devices can also learn about our existing behaviors, and link these to new desired behaviors to help us build healthy habits over time. · For example, if our smart devices notice that we often watch TV in the evening, it might suggest doing some light exercise while we watch. · If it detects success in establishing a new habit, it might slowly notch things up, suggesting additional activities that we might find fun.
- 4. Sleep · Let me tell you more about sleep. · The quantity and quality of sleep is a great predictor for physical and mental health. · My team has developed a sleep monitor that uses the sensors in your smartphone and machine learning techniques to tell when you are sleeping. · You can see that the detected motion and sound drop when the person goes to sleep around midnight. · You can also see the person's alarm went off around 8AM, and that they hit their snooze button a few times
- 6. Closeness pt2 · Here is some of my own phone call data. · On the left, you can see that my brother and I talk at all times of the day, and all days of the week, with lots of short calls, and a few long calls. · On the right, you can see that I don't call my best friend very often, but we chat for a long time. · We used these insights to create machine learning classifiers that could accurately predict how close you feel to others
- 14. What if they could also aggregate the data? · Our smart devices can even go further · by doing large scale A/B testing of alternatives · to understand what kinds of interventions work best · for what kinds of people · under different kinds of circumstances · By aggregating data from thousands or even millions of people · it could see what others did · see what worked for them · and continuously optimize interventions Silicon Valley already doing lots of A/B tests In fact, famous quote: “I saw the best minds of my generation wasted on getting people to click on ads” What if we could harness that some of that power and direct it towards improving the human condition?
- Clearly many significant challenges, perhaps most notably privacy and security But I think these are actually solveable, many people here at CMU are looking at these very issues Close by talking a bit more about the underlying philosophy of Maslow. As many of you may have already guessed, the agent is named after the psychologist Abraham Maslow, whose best-known idea is the hierarchy of needs. Abraham Maslow believed that one major source of happiness comes from achieving our full potential, or self-actualization. So happiness alone would be a major reason to build Maslow, but I think it would also address many of the other challenges that we have been discussing throughout CSD50. Maslow would be able to help with education, as Ken will talk about next, be a step towards Raj Reddy’s Guardian Angel, and could offer purpose in a world where jobs are being increasingly automated. So I think not only can we build Maslow, but that we should, for the betterment of humanity. -------------------- Instead, I want to take a step back and tie Maslow to themes that we’ve been discussing at CSD50 x Future of work x growth of inequality x Raj Reddy Guardian angel Industrial revolution led to tectonic shifts in how society was organized, leading to things like compulsory education, shift from farmland to cities, labor unions, and even feminism And we’re now at the beginning of a major digital revolution, with tremendous concerns about jobs Future of jobs Poverty