France will host the 21st UN Climate Change Conference in order to establish a binding agreement to limit global warming to 2°C. Limiting warming to below 2°C is important to avoid crossing climate tipping points that could lead to uncontrollable and catastrophic climate change impacts. However, some experts argue the 2°C target is already too high and 1.5°C is the boundary between dangerous and extremely dangerous climate change. Urgent climate mitigation is needed along with preparations for climate adaptation, as the impacts of climate change such as sea level rise and extreme weather could seriously disrupt societies and economies.

1. New Delhi, 10 July 2014
Professor Jeremy B Williams
Director, Asia Pacific Centre
for Sustainable Enterprise
@TheGreenMBA
@jeremybwilliams
tinyurl.com/teribcsd2

2. “You can print
money to bail out
a bank but you
can’t print life to
bail out a planet.”

3. France will host 21st UN
Climate Change Conference.
The goal is to establish an
agreement that is binding
and ambitious enough to
limit global warming to 20C

4. ‘Follow the Leaders’ – a sculpture by Isaac Cordal, Berlin, Germany, 2011

9. Highest level for at least 800,000 years

12. Dr. Malte Meinshausen

14. The modelling conducted for the 2013 study produced larger budgets than
indicated by the modelling of Meinshausen et al (2009) in 2011 Carbon Tracker
work. That approach produced a range of 565 – 886GtCO2 to give 80% - 50%
probabilities of limiting warming to a two degree scenario (2DS)

16. <20C
Ian Dunlop
Chair, Australian Coal
Association (1987-88); CEO
of the AICD (1997-2001)
?
“The 20C target is too
high. It is now the
boundary between
and
extremely dangerous
climate change”

18. New colours on the temperature map

22. 1 metre sea
level rise will
inundate more
than 15 percent
of Bangladesh,
displacing more
than 13 million
people

23. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

24. “The sooner you start
mitigating the easier it
is to adapt. Clearly we
could get closer and
closer to tipping points
and thresholds which
would make adaptation
totally impossible
beyond that stage.”
(April 2014)
Rajendra Pachauri
Head, IPCC

26. The One Percent doctrine
‘If there's a 1% chance
that Pakistani scientists
are helping al-Qaeda
build or develop a
nuclear weapon, we
have to treat it as a
certainty in terms of our
response. It's not about
our analysis ... It's about
our response.’
Dick Cheney, 2001

28. James L. Powell (author of The Inquisition of Climate Science) reviewed 13,950
peer-reviewed papers published between January 1991 and early November
2012, and only 24 (0.17%) clearly reject global warming or endorse a cause
other than CO2 emissions for observed warming.

31. Pyndyck (2013)

32. Limitations of IAMs
• The systems modelled are large, complex, and chaotic
• It is difficult to capture the complexity of natural and social systems
• The full consequences of policies may not be known for decades
(and beyond)
• Over this time period, many unforeseen events can occur
• Scientific knowledge may be incomplete (or absent) in certain areas
• The values of human, animal, and plant life, health, and diversity
are difficult to quantify.
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) (1995)

34. Stern (2006) attracted a lot criticism for using a
low discount rate

35. The two reasons used to justify the
application of a discount rate …
(i) The future always
counts for less in the
present
(i) People in the future
will be better off
because of economic
growth
• The future for future
generations, will be
their present!
• This could be a valid
reason, but can we be
sure that they are going
to be?

36. Garnaut (2011: 21)

37. ‘The problem is
framed as one of
profitable returns on
an investment not
precaution to avoid a
disaster.’
Spash (2007: 713)

39. The revised model by Dr Dietz and
Professor Stern takes into account
the likelihood that the ability to
generate new wealth would be
affected by extreme weather and
other impacts from climate change

41. Eleven fifty nine

42. Creating the next industrial revolution
• Radical resource
productivity
• Biomimicry
• Investing in natural
capital
• Service and flow
economy
See, also by Paul Hawken, (1994) The Ecology of Commerce
www.naturalcapitalism.org
Paul Hawken, Amory and L. Hunter Lovins
propose 4 central strategies of natural
capitalism:

44. http://www.greenbiz.com/research/report/2013/02/state-green-business-report-
2013

45. (Released 14 May 2014) Executive Summary:
‘Natural capital will become as
prominent a business concern in
the 21st Century as the provision
of adequate financial capital was
in the 20th Century ...
… We are already ‘drawing down’
on 50% more natural capital a
year than the earth can replenish –
and the rate of depletion is
accelerating. All too soon,
businesses will face a stark choice:
adapt or fail.’

49. • Policy decisions should be based on a judgement
about the maximum tolerable increase in
temperature /CO2 levels given scientific
understanding
• Smart business will develop business models that
seek to reverse the impact of climate change
• It will also make provision for significant climate
adaptation costs
Summing up …

50. profjeremybwilliams