Presentation in the Smart Business in Action Series, by Sustainable Business Australia, at KPMG, Brisbane, 26 June 2014

1. Smart Business in Action Series
Sustainable Business Australia
Brisbane, 26 June 2014
Professor Jeremy B Williams
Director, Asia Pacific Centre for Sustainable Enterprise
@TheGreenMBA

2. @TheGreenMBA
@APCSE
tinyurl.com/SBiA26

3. France will host 21st UN
Climate Change Conference.
The goal is to establish an
agreement that is binding
and ambitious enough to
limit global warming to 20C

4. Dr. Malte Meinshausen

7. The modelling conducted for the 2013 study produced larger budgets than
indicated by the modelling of Meinshausen et al (2009) in 2011 Carbon Tracker
work. That approach produced a range of 565 – 886GtCO2 to give 80% - 50%
probabilities of limiting warming to a two degree scenario (2DS)

9. <20C
Ian Dunlop
Chair, Australian Coal
Association (1987-88); CEO
of the AICD (1997-2001)
?
“The 20C target is too
high. It is now the
boundary between
and
extremely dangerous
climate change”

12. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

14. The One Percent doctrine
‘If there's a 1% chance
that Pakistani scientists
are helping al-Qaeda
build or develop a
nuclear weapon, we
have to treat it as a
certainty in terms of our
response. It's not about
our analysis ... It's about
our response.’
Dick Cheney, 2001

17. Pyndyck (2013)

18. Limitations of IAMs
• The systems modelled are large, complex, and chaotic
• It is difficult to capture the complexity of natural and social systems
• The full consequences of policies may not be known for decades
(and beyond)
• Over this time period, many unforeseen events can occur
• Scientific knowledge may be incomplete (or absent) in certain areas
• The values of human, animal, and plant life, health, and diversity
are difficult to quantify.
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) (1995)

20. Stern (2006) attracted a lot criticism for using a
low discount rate

21. The two reasons used to justify the
application of a discount rate …
(i) The future always
counts for less in the
present
(i) People in the future
will be better off
because of economic
growth
• The future for future
generations, will be
their present!
• This could be a valid
reason, but can we be
sure that they are going
to be?

22. Garnaut (2011: 21)

23. ‘The problem is
framed as one of
profitable returns on
an investment not
precaution to avoid a
disaster.’
Spash (2007: 713)

25. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate
-change/models-grossly-underestimate-costs-
of-global-warming-nicholas-stern-says-
20140616-zs8tr.html
The revised model by Dr Dietz and
Professor Stern takes into account
the likelihood that the ability to
generate new wealth would be
affected by extreme weather and
other impacts from climate change

26. • Policy decisions should be based on a judgement
about the maximum tolerable increase in
temperature /CO2 levels given scientific
understanding
• Smart business will develop business models that
seek to reverse the impact of climate change
• It will also make provision for significant climate
adaptation costs
Summing up …