My main goal is to share and make you experiment some of the techniques that I use when transforming teams into high-perfoming agile teams, by providing you with four (4) different ways to estimate projects in Agile.
SpotFlow: Tracking Method Calls and States at Runtime
Estimation techniques for Scrum Teams
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Development Process Evolution 2013 1All information contained herein is confidential and/or proprietary information of Seedbox Technologies Inc..
Any unauthorized use and/or any disclosure is strictly prohibited.
Estimation Techniques
for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series
By Jesus Mendez
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
About You
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
I’m passionate reader who nurtures from
curiosity by connecting with people and finding
ways to change the world by learning and
sharing, one conversation at a time. An
authentic dancer who uses coaching to help
himself and others to thrive.
About Me
Twitter: @chuzzete
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming TeamsLink to BOOK / WEBSITE Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
0. Introduction (Warm up)
0.5 Context (Agile Scrum) (5 minutes)
1. Thoughts about Estimation in Software Development (10 minutes)
2. Thoughts about the #NoEstimates movement (20 minutes)
3. Estimating Scrum Projects – Challenges (10 minutes)
Let’s reflect about our biggest challenges when estimating scrum projects
Write down the biggest challenges that you’re facing
Let’s share them in groups of three-four people
What have we learned? Any similarities?
4. Our role in the Estimation process (5 Minutes)
5. Coffee Break (5 Minutes)
6. Estimation Techniques Workshop (60 Minutes)
Absolute Estimates
Planning Poker
Affinity Estimation
Relative Estimation
7. Coffee Break (5 Minutes)
8. Final thoughts (Retrospective) – (30 Minutes)
9. What’s next (5 Minutes)
Proposed Agenda
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Individuals
Teams
Divisions
Organization
Consume + Request
CONTEXT
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
CONTEXT
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
CONTEXT
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
TEAMS
Agile Values
Customer Collaboration
Individuals & Interactions
Working Software
Responding to change
Agile Mindset
Iterative approach
Continuous Feedback
Self-Organization
Working together
Have fun
Get better results faster
CONTEXT
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
CONTEXT
Individuals
Teams
Divisions
Organization
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
CONTEXT
11. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE
Forming Agile Teams - Flow
Techniques for Forming Agile Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
1
Planning
The Team
Transformation
Process 2
Team
Transformation
Process
Kickoff
B
Product
Road
Mapping
(Team Level)
3 Iteration
Planning
4 Daily
Sync
5 Help Team
stay
focused
8 Iteration
Retrospective
Team
Performance
Satisfaction 7Iteration
Review
9 Iteration
Report
A
Product
Road
Mapping
(Stakeholder Level)
6 Product
Backlog
Refinement
Iteration
Review
Preparation
I
T
E
R
A
T
I
O
N
1 or 2 Weeks
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
WHAT’S
THAT?
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT)
What’s that ?
Human Evaluation(Amount of Work to develop something)= Estimation
=
Human Evaluation
Amount of work
Estimation
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (the optimism bias)
(also known as unrealistic or comparative optimism)
cognitive bias that causes a
person to believe that they are
less at risk of experiencing a
negative event compared to
others.
Even though if we have
Previous experience
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (cognitive bias/the optimism bias)
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
WHY DO WE
ESTIMATE
PROJECTS?
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
THOUGHtS ABOUT ESTIMATION (WHAT’S FOR?)
PROJECT
IS PROFITABLE
FITS INTO THE SPRINT
WHAT TO DO
IN A SPRINTWHAT BRINGS
MORE VALUE
REQUIRED
RESOURCES
BUDGET TO HELP
DECIDE GO OR NOT GO
TEAM ENGAGEMENT
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
THOUGHTS ABOUT ESTIMATION (WHAT’S FOR?)
ESTIMATION
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
WHAT’S
THE ULTIMATE
GOAL?
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
People get:
- Very caught up in the actual number, forgetting that it’s just an estimate
and wrong anyway.
- Very emotionally invested in being “right”, they start defending their
estimates, or giving in to the majority without discussion.
- There is confusion between team members about the proper way to
estimate effort.
When the real deal when estimating effort is
to get a Shared Understanding and Consensus,
it is just a way to plan and know where we are against the plan.
THE ULTIMATE GOAL (AGILE CONTEXT)
Relative estimate vs. absolute
80/20
Rule
L.E.B.E
Rule
Getting about 80% right estimates
with 20% of the effort
Less Effort Better Estimates
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
WHAT ABOUT
OTHER
ALTERNATIVES?
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
THE #NOESTIMATES MOVEMENT
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
GO BACK TO THE SOURCE
ESTIMATION
SIMPLE
REDUCE WASTE
THE #NOESTIMATES MOVEMENT
24. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
HACK 1. Minimize Importance of the Decision
Approximate
Direction
Learn
iteratively
Adapt
Collaborate
Flexible Team Roadmap
based on goals
achievable within
the next Quarter
Sprint results
vs
Team Roadmap
Adapt
Team Roadmap
Each Sprint
keep
Team Roadmap
Visible for the team
FAIL EARLY
LEARN FASTER
REDUCED COST
FLEXIBILITY
#NOESTIMATES HACKs
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
HACK 2. Focus on the Vision
Product Vision
Regularly revised
Prioritized
Backlog
Short Iterations
focus is on existing
projects only
(Short term)
Feedback
Product Vision
Clearly established
Product Backlog
Well Sliced
Progress iteratively
#NOESTIMATES HACKs
26. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
HACK 3. Set a limited budget
Set small amount of money
for a short period of time
•Iteration reviews each week
Decide to continue or not by
the end of the period
HELP US DECIDE AFTER TRYING => Reduce risk without planning at the beginning
#NOESTIMATES HACKs
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
HACK 4. Amount of stories completed vs velocity
Prerequisite
User story decoupling
Is properly done
Experiences Agile Teams
Fine
Stories
Prioritized
Backlog
#Amount
Stories
delivered
#NOESTIMATES HACKs
28. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
HACK 4. Amount of stories completed vs velocity
12
15.0
16.0
10.0
13.0
8.0
17.0
26.0
11.0
20.0
13.00
14.00
9.00
13.00
11.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
#Items completed vs Completed Story Points x sprint
# Items Completed
Completed (Story Points)
# Forecast
Linear (# Items Completed)
Linear (Completed (Story Points))
#NOESTIMATES HACKs
29. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
WHAT’S OUR ROLE
IN THE
ESTIMATION
PROCESS?
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Our Role as Scrum Master
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Connect people and make things happen
COMMON SENSE INSTALLERS
31. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE
Our Role as Scrum Master
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
MAKE THINGS VISIBLE
32. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE
Our Role as Scrum Master
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
HELP
PEOPLE
33. Link to BOOK / WEBSITE
Our Role as Scrum Master
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
MAKE IT
EASIER
34. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
35. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Estimation at different levels
T-SHIRT
SIZES
Affinity
Estimates
Planning
Poker
Absolute
Estimates
Sprints
Story
Points
Story
Points
Hours
Sprints
36. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Content
2
3
Planning Poker
Relative
Estimation
1
4
Absolute Estimates
Affinity estimation
Rules
- 4 Exercises.
- 10 Minutes duration per exercise.
- Team had to estimate items using a diff. technique.
- Each team got a set of cards with items written on
them.
- Each team got the same items so we could compare
between teams at the end.
- When each team finished estimating, the facilitator
wrote results per team in a flip chart/white board,
and start the discussion about the technique.
- The facilitator shared correct answers once each
team has completed each exercise.
- A general discussion is hold about all techniques and
the team decides where we go from here
Estimation techniques workshop
37. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Description
The items to be estimated are dogs.
Instructions
- Each team have to estimate the weight of each dog(item) in
kilograms
- Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding
- After consensus, the team should decide what estimate would be
assigned to each dog (item)
Special note
- To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should
try their best to get results as soon as they can.
Exercise 1: Absolute Estimates
38. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct
Answer
Chihuahua 3
Great Dane 90
Staffordshir
e Bull Terrier
17
Appalachian
Mountain
Dog
0
Border
Collie
34
American
Cocker
Spaniel
13
Exercise 1: Absolute estimation Results
39. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Description
The items to be estimated are country area. Remember that this technique is
used for relative estimation
Instructions
- Use Spain as your reference point (Value assigned to Spain Area is 3)
- Each team have to estimate the area of each country(item)
- Each team discuss about the item to get shared understanding, then each person chooses a card
from their set that they think is the closes fit.
- Everyone displays their cards at the same time (avoid influencing other between each other).
- People discuss the outliers, usually the highest and lowest numbers to see of the people who
selected them, had a different understanding to everyone else.
- After discussion, people re-vote taking in consideration anything uncovered in the discussion.
- Once everyone converges on a number that is selected as the estimate.
- If convergence is not reached by the third vote, then the team would take the highest number or
majority number.
Special note
- To be able to compare each estimation technique, all teams should try their best to get
results as soon as they can.
Exercise 2: Planning Poker
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct
Answer
Spain 3 3 3 3 3 3
China 40
Luxembourg 0
Denmark 1
South Africa 8
Belize 1
Exercise 2: Planning Poker Results
41. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Description
The items to be estimated are cars volume. Remember that this technique is
used for relative estimation
Instructions
- Lay out one set of planning poker cards so that you have all the numbers.
- Agree on a reference story, and place it next to the reference point. In this case put the card
“Convertible” next to the Planning poker card identified with the number “3”.
- Give the stack of story cards to the first person in the team.
- Each person has a turn where you can either:
- take a new car from the stack of story cards and place it where you think it fits, or
- Move a card already on the table to a new spot if you don’t agree with it.
- Note: You must always move a card if you don’t agree with the estimate rather than playing a new one
- Note2: If you play a new card it means you are happy with every card on the table.
- After your turn you hand the cards to the next person.
- If you do a full circuit of the team and one card has been moved each time, then you discuss it
before continuing.
- Note: People could explain why they are placing a card at a certain number, but remember,
open discussion just when a card was moved.
Exercise 3: Affinity Estimation
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct
Answer
Motorbike
Startship
enterprize
SUV
Minivan
Convertible 3 3 3 3 3 3
Bus
Exercise 3: Affinity estimation Results
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Description
The items to be estimated are Animal weight.
Remember that this technique is used for relative
estimation
Instructions
- Take all story cards and arrange them on the table in ascending size (ignore
the reference point for now)
- Decide what is bigger and what’s the same size (It can be done all team
members together)
- Once you the team has arranged all cards, only then assign numbers,
starting with the reference point (the “impala” in this case)
Exercise 4: Relative Estimation
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Item Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Correct
Answer
Elephant
Giraffe
Elephant
shrew
crocodile
snake
impala 3 3 3 3 3 3
Exercise 4: Relative estimation Results
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
References
Forming-Storming-Norming-Performing, http://www.amazon.com/Forming-Storming-
Norming-Performing-
Communication/dp/1475968434/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431235&sr=8-
1&keywords=forming+teams
The Five dysfunctions of a Team, http://www.amazon.com/Overcoming-Five-Dysfunctions-
Team-Facilitators/dp/0787976377/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1445431275&sr=8-
1&keywords=overcoming+the+five+dysfunctions+of+a+team
The Pause Principle http://www.amazon.com/Pause-Principle-Forward-Kevin-
Cashman/dp/B00DEK8RUI/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431361&sr=1-
2&keywords=pause+principle
The Secret of Teams, http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Teams-What-Great-
Know/dp/1609940938/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431429&sr=1-
1&keywords=the+secrets+of+teams
Coaching Agile Teams, http://www.amazon.com/Coaching-Agile-Teams-ScrumMasters-
Addison-Wesley/dp/0321637704/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1445431456&sr=1-
1&keywords=coaching+agile+teams
46. LINK BOOK / WEBSITE
Estimation Techniques for Scrum Teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams
Book: http://www.leanpub.com/forming_agile_teams
Twitter: @chuzzete
Website: www.jesusmendez.ca
Email: transformingteams@jesusmendez.ca
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Estimation Techniques for Scrum teams
Morning Talk Series: Transforming Teams