IT game changers for 2011-2013, technologies, people and enterprises....

1. I Live in the Future &
Here's How It Works
Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf
Research Fellow
jimmy@stki.info
www.stki.info

2. 2011: year of the GAME CHANGERS
2

3. 2011: year of the GAME CHANGERS
3

4. Changes are “BIG”
Nicolaus Copernicus
1514
4

5. Big change or IMPLOSION
First Technological Implosion Second Technological Implosion
• PC Ecosystem • Mobility Devices Ecosystem
• Client/server Ecosystem • Cloud Services Ecosystem
• LAN/WAN Ecosystem • Analytic tools/appliances for
• Internet/Web Ecosystem data management Ecosystem
• X86 Ecosystem • NO-SQL DBMS Ecosystem
• Relational DBMS Ecosystem • Social Commerce Ecosystem
5

6. What did CIOs say in 1982-1986
• Are all this technologies:
– Secure ?
– Strong enough ?
– Manageable in an IT environment ?
– Will IT loose control ?
– Should IT use them ?
Guess what they will say 2011 - 2012
(we are in a faster moving era) ?
6

7. NO .. NO
7

8. Albert Einstein said about CIOs (?):
8

9. 5th Generation Of Computing
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011+
Autocratic Personal: Web: SOA: Cloud/Mobility:
Centralized
Computing

10. Will IT change ? Will CIO’s ?
10

11. 2011-12 Game Changers
11

12. What does it mean ?????????
12

13. Drastic changes are occurring in IT
13

14. Game Changer 1
CIO is responsible for :
– Provide fault-free IT support and
mitigate risks
– Support business functions and goals
– Reduce business costs (especially
IT costs)
– Increase business speed and
agility
– Support business process
innovation
MOST IMPORTANT:
– Support business model innovation
14

15. "Chief Business Technology Officer" (CBTO)
George Colony (Forrester) is advocating
to drop the name of CIO :
– CBTO are in charge of “all technology” in their
enterprises.
– people who work in technology departments exist
to drive one thing (business)
– signals everyone that the technology department is
serious about helping increase growth and profit
15

16. Game Changer 2
Consumerized IT
• “Personal” connectivity
• Personal Mobile Computing
• Cloud based applications
Knowledge Individuals
• Always connected
• Technology Savvy
• Multitasked
16

17. IT is consumerized ……….
17

18. 2011: my pocket’s contents

19. In 2 years we will carry only 1

20. STKI’s Jewish “philosopher” of the year
• innovation and entrepreneurship
behavior of individuals making decisions and
innovations
• “I suddenly realized that all the brilliant
economists were interested in the
behavior of money/commodities,
while I was interested in the behavior
of people.” Prof. Peter Druker
20

21. Productivity Management
• Emphasis upon the results of:
managerial actions rather than the
supervision of activities (“scientific
management“ from Frederick Winslow Taylor).
• It shifted the entire focus of
management thought:
• to productivity-output
• away from work efforts-input
21

22. Prof. Drucker: Managing a Business
• Purpose of Business
– To Create Customers
• Functions of Business
– Marketing
– Innovation
• Profit is a result, not a
cause, of business
activity

23. Knowledge Individual
• In 1959, Prof. Drucker coined the term
“knowledge worker”
– Since then their share of the workforce has
steadily grown
– So has the range of technology tools aimed at
boosting their productivity
• In 2011 we can coin the term:
“knowledge individual”
23

24. “ knowledge individual ”
MIXES “home/work” 24 hours a day
Connected to: Applications used:
i. World information/news i. Personal Finance
ii. Education ii. Personal Productivity
iii. Entertainment iii. ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
iv. Family & friends iv. Data Storage
v. WORK v. Personal Entertainer
vi. Family Health
vii. others

25. Average time spent connected by
“knowledge individual”
Web surfing(URL based)
59%
In other words Aps
25

26. How does the knowledge individual
make decisions today:
Company sends
“future rewards”
26

27. Game Changer 3
• Death of Technology
Strategies
• Death of Multi-channel
Strategies
• Birth of Business Process
Strategies
• Birth of Multi-touchpoint
Strategies
27

28. Multichannel technologies are only
that: technologies
28

29. Change from
Multichannel to Touchpoint Strategies
Technology versus Service
technologies
29

30. Game Changer 4
• Curated Computing
– Vanilla solutions
– Simplifies support and upgrades
– Easy prioritizing of IT assets and
applications
30

31. CURATED COMPUTING
1. Allows everybody to find applications they need
(on premises or cloud)
2. CURATOR decides what technologies will enter
the roadmap and when.
3. Once you (user) are in….. You are there for the
whole ride
31

32. Decision on “curator” as marriage
32

33. tech wars or religion wars
33

34. Game Changer 5
Storage & Bandwidth
– New networks
– New Technologies
– Reductions of price
34

35. Virtually free and unlimited
• Storage and bandwidth:
improving while dramatic
reductions of price .
• The marginal cost is falling to
practically zero.
35

36. We are in the midst of an historic “upload”

37. Israeli Internet Speeds
Communication Costs
37

38. Growth: Digital Highway
Availability of cellular and line high-speed broadband
Broadband related growth (innovation)
and availability of several (>2) aquatic lines to Italy
will bewill push differentiator in 2010-2012
the big INNOVATION 2011-2014

39. Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT)
spectrum released by TV’s switch to digital broadcasting
• Below 700MHs for unlicensed use by the public
– White-space devices will be able to zip data along at 400-800Mbps
and have ranges of several kilometers
• 700MHz bands for mobile-phone operators
– Old TV signals travel for many kilometers, carry a lot of
information, unaffected by weather and go through walls to
penetrate buildings.

40. We get free services on the “web”
Will industry dynamics shift ?
Will there still be free services in
the internet in 2012?
Will prices of internet use continue
to be low, unlimited,
non-differentiated?
40

41. We get free services on the “web”
Will industry dynamics shift ?
41

42. Why is my “ISP” slowing me
down?
• UK's broadband providers are to give clearer information about how
they slow down users' connections to maintain their network
performance
• ISPs vary the speed of broadband connections depending on the time
of day or volume of traffic on their network
• Tasks that are not speed critical, downloading files or sending emails,
are delayed slightly to ensure that other services, such as streaming
video, run smoothly
• ISPs will offer "managed services" - effectively giving an
exemption from traffic management to website and online
applications that are willing to pay for it.
42

43. Days of “unlimited broadband”
may be numbered…….
• AT&T says it will implement a:
– 150GB monthly cap: on landline DSL
– 250GB cap: high speed internet
– charge fees of $10 for every 50GB of data
– U-Verse TV service won't count towards the
GB cap
43

44. Household Expenditures (Israel)
This was in 2007
no new data
One of
the
highest
in the
world
gov.il
44

45. Game Changer 6
New OS for
the internet
45

46. The Web Is Dead. Long Live the Internet
46

47. Internet Operating System
• Internet is the “infrastructure”
• WEB (WWW) is the first generation internet OS
What is next?
• Smartphones as Internet OS clients?
• What is the OS?

48. Mobile Appliances as “internet OS client”
(from GPS or cell antennas)
(from Google)
(from Waze)
(from Google Streets)
48

49. And wow wow wow
49

50. Game Changer 7
Hybrid Clouds
Private Clouds
Public Clouds
– BPaaS
– PaaS
– SaaS
– IaaS
50

51. Enterprise Cloud
51

52. Consumer Cloud Applications

53. Cloudy IT: the hybrid world
ISPs will become strategic
Developers are now doing most of their
By 2014 :
development work for public cloud versions.
80% of Israeli companies
But will have private cloud versions 2015
Will run hybrid clouds
53

54. 4 types: Enterprise Clouds
54

55. Who will be the winner (PaaS)?
Curated
Developer
Platform
Over ¾ of vendor (new) applications will
be developed using PaaS ecosystems
2011-2012
55

56. Parts of a “private cloud”
56

57. How does a private “cloud” look ?
57

58. Game Changer 8
• Web 2 + 3
• Social Capital Management
• Social Networks
• Crowd Sourcing
• Facebook
58

59. Social Capital
Prof. Robert Putnam defines Social Capital:
“the social networks and the norms of
trustworthiness and reciprocity that arise
from them.”
59

60. Evolution of Social Media…
60

61. 61

62. 62

63. Peer Influence Analysis
• two groups of influential consumers online:
– use blogs, forums, and review sites to share complete
opinions about brands and products online (creating
"influence posts") (13.8% of online consumers create 80% of influence
post)*
– use sites like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter to connect
their friends to influential content from companies and
consumers (creating "influence impressions") (6.2% of online
consumers create 80% of influence impressions)* * from blog of Josh Bernoff and Augie Ray
63

64. Peer Influence Analysis
• two groups of influential consumers online:
– use blogs, forums, and review sites to share complete
opinions about brands and products online (creating
"influence posts") (13.8% of online consumers create 80% of influence
post)*
– use sites like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter to connect
their friends to influential content from companies and
consumers (creating "influence impressions") (6.2% of online
consumers create 80% of influence impressions)* * from blog of Josh Bernoff and Augie Ray
64

65. 65

66. Engage 1 influence 6
66

67. Social networking for retail shops
• U.S. Patent and Trademark Office
published a new patent application
entitled “Social Networking in
Shopping Environments”
67

68. Social Media can be used :
marketing
opportunity Product
management
awareness
internal
sales
workplace product
development
product sales
knowledge management
base
training
peer-to-peer
service support delivery
68

69. 38% in High-Tech
69

70. 25-34: 893K
Over 35:
606K
Over 55:
128K
43.36% of the population use FACEBOOK
70

71. 25-34: 893K
Over 35:
606K
Over 55:
128K
1.053 Million 18-24 use facebook
43.36% of the population use FACEBOOK
71

72. 72

73. Facebook Ad Revenues 2009-12
73

74. 28/3 roughly 2.5 billion shares
outstanding, at $85 billion
74

75. Game Changer 9
GAMIFICATION
(new man machine
or user/interface)
75

76. Gamification
• use of game play mechanics for non-game applications
• encourage people to adopt and engage in desired
behaviors in connection with the applications
76

77. New MMI/UI based on
Gamification
77

78. Farmville Game on Facebook
• It‟s free but you can buy goods to enhance the
experience:
– 1,200,000 tractors „sold‟ every single day
• A team of 35 Developers release new virtual items
into FarmVille twice a week
• 285 Million+ users without any advertising per day
• Parent company Zynga makes est. $2,500M / Year
and has 1200+ employees
78

79. Examples of Gamification
79

80. US Social Gamers
(millions and % of internet users)
80

81. Motion Gaming: Business Trend?
• Will motion gaming
business application
trend continue in
2011 or will users
grow tired of the
motion-gaming
novelty?
81

82. Game Changer 10
SENSORS
(ie: location based services)
82

83. Sensors everywhere
83

84. More “sensors” ………
84

85. Facebook Places
The check-in icon only shows up on the day of
the event and only when users are
geographically close to the specified address.
85

86. Location based services
86

87. Location based rewards
87

88. Game Changer 11
New
data base
and
analytic tools
88

89. Data Boom: what new
technologies are available
Traditional
analytic tools
and relational
DBMS cannot
handle
Zettabyte = = 1021
89

90. Very high volume, high speed,
unstructured data analysis
90

91. First Rate Enterprises do analytic
simulations of opposed ideas
-”The test of a first-rate intelligence
is the ability to hold two opposed
ideas in the mind at the same time, and
still retain the ability to function”-
F. Scott Fitzgerald
91

92. New Analytic Tools
table@james_kobielus_blog

93. Industry in a Box- Appliances
Analytical Data Warehouse
Appliances
– NCR Teradata
– Oracle Exadata
– IBM Netezza
– EMC Greenplum
– HP + Microsoft
93

94. Game Changer 12
New generation
of appliances
94

95. When will we have “Industrial Information” Machines ?
It takes time not only for people to adopt
technologies into their daily routines but also
for technologists to figure out how to make
things
33 years
The Austin 7 was produced
from 1922 through to 1939
The Karl Benz Patent Motorwagen 1885,. by the Austin Motor Company.
95

96. The rule: +/-30 years
96

97. Mobility
97

98. Mobility
98

99. 99

100. 2010: Israel 3G penetration 52%
(18% growth)

101. Game Changer 13
Mobile Apps
The Rise of a New Generation
101

102. Like an old phone changed form adopted its own form
102

103. Context Applications
103

104. Smartphones Q32010
104

105. Smartphones Q32010
105

106. Active App developer base estimates (4Q2010)
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/can-hp-make-webos-relevant/44245?tag=mantle_skin;conten t

107. Or one for each machine?
PCs Tablets Smart phones Cell phones
Mac

108. Mobile Applications also changing
Your mobile application and Less like that:
should look more like
that:
Don’t look at mobile devices as an “extended PC”
It is a totally different device that will offer added value that a PC doesn’t

109. How are we going to use them ?
109

110. Design features (user wins)
or
development and distribution (IT wins)
110

111. Native Apps vs Mobile Web
111

112. Native Apps vs Mobile Web
112

113. When are you “changing” ???
113

114. Game Changer 14
E-bizz
(ie: e/m banking)
114

115. The growth of m(obile)-commerce
– The percent of consumers who say they‟ve used an
online retailer‟s site from a mobile phone nearly tripled
to 28% from 10% in 2008
– Younger consumers more readily engage with m-
commerce than older ones
115

116. Smartphone activities (12/2010 USA)
116

117. Are You Ready for the New
Peer-to-Peer Economy?
transactions happen between individuals
or a group of individuals and not only
between corporations and individuals.
196,802 soho ( up to 9
companies employees)

118. Simple business app
Square handles security and meets
all PCI security standards to ensure
payments are safe and secure.
118

119. 2011: A Crossroads For NFC Mobile Payments
Near Field Communications
• Rather than pay with a piece
of plastic you will tap your
phone to pay the bill.
• Technological changes need to
happen, and companies are
already working on them.
• Apple, Google, Qualcomm and
Microsoft/Nokia have already
working prototypes

120. smartphones
120

121. The Future of Mobile Banking
what the next-generation will look like…….
.
The Mobile Bank Revolution:
Jibun Bank
121

122. 122

123. Zopa is the world's first social finance company.
• A way for people to lend and borrow directly with each other, online.
• They have expanded across the world.
• In each country Zopa is a little different.
123

124. 124

125. Game Changer 15
New generation
CORE applications
125

126. New generation core systems
• Core business software reflect:
– Business Processes
– Business environment (now Social Commerce will be part)
– Regulation
– Available Technology
• Business Processes are really a combination of two things:
– Industry (even micro-industry) related
– Management/entrepreneur business model related
• Core business applications:
• Have a life of about 30 years
• Now we are in CORE v2 in Israel
• New generation core will include:
– mobile, internet and e-bizz core applications
– “multichannel” (touch point management) systems
126

127. Game Changer 16
IT and MARKETING
127

128. Marketing as a new IT client
128

129. New CRM: Engaging and influencing
CRM 1.0 CRM 2.0
Managing individual customers Managing influencers and ‘tribes’

130. Revenue cycle changes:
130

131. Marketing as a new IT client
131

132. Social Media Matters
132

133. 133

134. 134

135. In the next 5 years, 17% of marketing budget
will be spent on social media

136. Game changer: Wake up call
NOW
136

137. Now who stops it?
LEGAL
Department
137

138. Now, it’s likely to be
Facebook …….
138

139. So the game changers till now:
SPEED & VERTICAL SENSORS SOFTWARE
SCALE SOLUTIONS New kinds of data Hybrid Cloud
applications
processing power, Vertical domain
storage sizes, expertise in r
bandwidth and microvertical core
real-time data solutions
Appliances
Analytics Enterprise 3.0 Always connected
New tools and
appliance
139

140. IT-based
INNOVATION
140

141. 141

142. Innovation is ONLY defined by its REALIZATION
(you know it when you see it. )
142

143. Who has what 1
143

144. Who has what 2
144

145. Computerworld this weekend
IT innovation is about “understanding” the
intersection between technologies and business
models and their processes.
145

146. percentage of employed persons
aged 15-74 in ICT fields
Israel 9.7%

147. ICT in the business sector
Finland 9.8 ISRAEL 15.92
Sweden 8.7 Share of Finland 14.78
ISRAEL 8.3
Ireland 8.3
ICT Gross Korea 13.69
Ireland 12.14
Denmark
France
7.0
6.5
Value Hungary 10.95
Sweden 10.78
Added in
Hungary 6.3
United Kingdom 10.67
Netherlands 6.3
Netherlands 9.20
Italy 6.3
Korea 6.2 business United States 8.70
Japan 6.1
Norway 8.34
Norway 5.9 sector Denmark 7.93
Germany 5.6 France 7.92
United States 5.5 product Japan 7.90
Canada 5.4 Belgium 7.65
Austria 5.4 Share Canada 7.62
Australia 5.0 Czech Republic 7.54
United Kingdom 4.9 of ICT Italy 7.48
Belgium 4.9 Australia 7.08
Czech Republic 4.7 jobs Portugal 7.07
Spain
Mexico
3.9
3.6
in business Germany 6.92
Austria 6.81
Portugal 2.6
sector Spain 6.75
Mexico 5.00

148. 148