Innovation Economy V3 (downloadable)

‫‪STKI Company Confidential‬‬ ‫‪for‬‬ ‫8002/11/11‬
‫‪STKI clients only‬‬

‫‪WIKIPEDIA‬‬
‫‪STKI‬‬
‫מתוך ויקיפדיה, האנציקלופדיה החופשית‬
‫חברת ‪STKI - Schwarzkopf The Knowledge Integrators‬‬
‫היא חברת ייעוץ בתחום מערכות מידע בישראל, המפעילה צוות‬
‫של אנליסטים. לקוחות החברה כוללים בנקים, חברות ביטוח,‬
‫ב טוח‬ ‫כולל ם בנק ם‬ ‫אנל סט ם‬
‫משרדי ממשלה, חברות היי-טק ותעשייה, חברות טלקום ועוד.‬
‫:‪Innovation Economy‬‬ ‫באמצע שנות ה-08, דquot;ר ג'ימי )חיים( שוורצקוף ביצע את‬
‫המחקר הראשון מסוגו אודות שוק טכנולוגיית המידע בישראל,‬
‫עבור חברת ‪ .DEC‬המחקר הכה גלים בשוק הישראלי, ונתן‬
‫‪Resist the hype but don’t ignore the realities‬‬ ‫תמונת מצב קונקרטית בשוק שהיה עד אותה עת בלתי ממופה.‬
‫דquot;ר שוורצקוף המשיך בחקר השוק ובשנת2991הקים את חברת‬
‫‪ ,Meta Group Israel‬ששימשה כנציגות בישראל של חברת‬
‫‪ Meta Group‬העולמית. במסגרת החברה, המשיך דquot;ר‬
‫‪Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf‬‬ ‫שוורצקוף לפרסם מחקרי שוק בתחום באופן קבוע, וכן לספק‬
‫‪Research Fellow‬‬ ‫ייעוץ לחברות והארגונים המובילים בשוק. בשנת 4002 נרכשה‬
‫‪ Meta Group‬העולמית על ידי חברת גרטנר, ודquot;ר שוורצקוף‬
‫‪STKI‬‬
‫והאנליסטים המשיכו בפעילותם בישראל תחת השם ‪.STKI‬‬
‫‪jimmy@stki.info‬‬ ‫1‬
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STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Inviting you to my office

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This presentation is dangerous: will make people think  about
and to my library......... intelligence and wisdom (two very different things)

• Evariste Galois (1811‐1832)
– accepted a duel with pistols.
– spent the night before the duel in
writing down his mathematical
testament: theory of
transformation of roots in
algebraic equations.

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If I could have predicted this ??

“When the network becomes as fast as the
processor, the computer hollows out and
So: I cannot “predict” any one in particular
spreads across the network.” but…..
– Eric Schmidt, did in 1993

Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot

www.KurzweilAI.net
15 16
www.KurzweilAI.net

What has happened in 2008 and what can I do? Prof. Prescott and Prof. Kydland
Is there a difference between economic cycles caused by:
• quot;contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the
1. Technology changes time consistency of economic policy and the
driving forces behind business cyclesquot;
2. Credit mismanagement
• Forces behind business cycles:
Technology for converting inputs of
–T h l f ti i t f
capital and labor into output of goods
(technology for creating value)
– Technological change
…will this change INSTITUTIONS
organization, production and consumption
habits and norms ? Sveriges Riksbank Prize
Economic Sciences
Alfred Nobel 2004
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Economic progress takes place by overlapping surges FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN
DRIVEN BY SUCCESSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS 230 YEARS

Technological
progress

Time
40-60 years

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PROF. THOMAS KUHN Prof. Joseph Schumpeter
• we do not advance in steady, even progress • Suggested that Economies are
but in a series of peaceful interludes Driven by “Creative Destruction”
punctuated by violent revolutions
revolutions,
• each conceptual world view is replaced by • Shifts the Focus of Economics from
another Price Adjustment to Innovation
PARADIGM SHIFT: Financial Innovation Tends to
• Fi i lI i T d
Produce Sectoral Bubbles
1. A change in world view that • Bubbles Tend to Eventually Burst
calls everything you know
into question • The Fallout from Bursting Bubbles
2. Paradigm Shift Rate is now Often Threatens to Trigger an
doubling every decade Economy‐wide Recession

TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE Austrian‐School  credit cycle theory
• Ineffective central bank policies tend to quot;artificiallyquot; set interest
Degree INSTALLATION PERIOD Turning
Point
DEPLOYMENT PERIOD rates too low for too long, resulting in excessive credit creation,
of diffusion
of the speculative quot;bubblesquot; and quot;artificiallyquot; low savings.
Institutional recompositio and role shift

technological
revolution – Low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the
Kuhn’s banking system.
“boom”
– Leading to an unsustainable quot;monetary boomquot; during which
Leading to an unsustainable monetary boom during which
on

Reaping of growth
‘Creative and social benefits the quot;artificially stimulatedquot; borrowing seeks out diminishing
destruction’ from the prevailingSchumpeter’s investment opportunities.
Paradigm shift paradigm Creative
– A correction or quot;credit crunchquot; – commonly called a
destruction
quot;recessionquot; or quot;bustquot; – occurs when this credit creation
cannot be sustained.

big-
big-bang Next
big-
big-bang Time
2O - 30 years ??? 2O - 30 years
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Recurring phases of each great surge The changing face of the last 100 years


During the deployment phase: unprecedented Prof. Carlota Perez :
opportunities and new business models TECHNO‐ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS


Which road should we take ? directions of the  current paradigm shift
Alice came to a fork in the road.
“Which road do I take?” she asked.
“Where do you want to go?”
responded the Cheshire cat.
“I don’t know” Alice answered.
“Then” said the cat,
“it doesn’t matter”. Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

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FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
“SERVICES”

Reinvest in
human capital


Prof. Israel Kirzner
• Into a world of men unable to learn… introduce
a group of outsiders who are able to perceive
opportunities …where a good can be sold at a
price higher than that at which it can be
brought.

• This group of entrepreneurs…notice profit
opportunities that exist because of the initial
ignorance of the original market participants
and that have persisted because of their
inability to learn.

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Assumption : Generation C is here from BUILD product to CREATE service
Co-Creators

Control Cash
Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy
The birth of
Compete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space.
Generation C
Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant.
(T people)
Communicate Connected The New Economic Age
Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand.

Creativity Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off.

Content Creative Class Align the whole system of a firm’s Align the whole system of a firm’s
Conversation activities with its strategic choice of activities in pursuit of
differentiation or low cost. differentiation and low cost.
Community
Channel
Consumer 2.0
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So what do we do in the “New Era” ?


Service : A Definition
Shift to a • Cultural change: From product to service.
solutions economy • Service is produced and consumed at
customer site and delivered by people.
From product to service • A service is a series of activities that
normally take place in interactions
What are customers between the customer and supplier
trying to solve?
(employees, physical resources, goods
“Less stuff… more service” and/or systems), and which are provided
as answers to customers' needs.


Example: Suppliers of components with Competition in services?
added‐value   better processes
• Suppliers deliver more than a product, they
deliver a service:
– involvement in design phase of final product
– order process
– delivery in‐time and accurate
d li i ti d t
– invoice process
• The quality of the whole process is relevant,
not only the quality of the delivered
components.


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SERVICE ECONOMY
pushes need for “new CIO”
“I’m an inventor.
Innovation I became interested
in long term trends
because an
invention has to
invention has to
BUSINESS
Ray Kurzweil
make sense in the
PROCESSES world in which it is
finished, not the
world in which it is
started.”
Time
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‐

Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ? Cloud Computing Modularity
• Represents a change in BUSINESS MODEL ?
Desktop as a service

• Represents a “disruptive” change ? Software as a service
(standard applications)
YES Platform as a service
CLOUD COMPUTING and SOA are basically new (custom applications)
“disruptive” ways of delivering IT
Infrastructure as a service
(compute, storage, network)

Wisdom of Clouds : quot;cloud computingquot;
quot;cloud computingquot; What is Cloud Computing?
What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself 1. data and services reside in massively scalable data
but how the pieces have come together to centers
make doing business in the cloud seem increasingly
like an economic inevitability 2. accessed from any connected devices over the
internet.
Cloud computing i
Cl d Your Text here is a simple concept:
ti i l t Your Text here
• Software and services are delivered over the Web and
through a browser.
• No servers or client software to install.
• Available anytime, anywhere, from any device
connecting to the Internet
Web 2.0-
enabled PCs, Businesses,
4+ billion phones by 2010
TVs, etc. from startups
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Cloud Computing Architecture
Apache

Virtual Virtual Virtual Virtual
Machine Machine Machine Machine

Monitoring Agent
Open Source Linux with Xen

Data Center – 64 bit X86 Virtualized Infrastructure based on
Open Source Linux & Xen
Monitoring Provisioning Baremetal & Xen VM

Monitoring Provisioning Application Server
DBMS
Manager

Management Stack
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History of Innovation


Computing and Communication Technologies
Evolution: 1960‐2010!

Some background
Cloud
Computing

Your Text here Your Text here

Centralised Decentralised

Control

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Disruptive technologies Books of the 1980‐90s
• Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s)
-” No institution can possibly survive if it needs
geniuses or supermen to manage it it.
It must be organized in such a way as to be
able to get along under a leadership composed
• Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1981), TCP/IP (1980’s), C/S
Architectures  (1980’s), SUN workstations (1980’s), Internet (1990’s) of average human beings”-
“It is the means by which [organizations] create value-
producing resources or endows existing resources
• Open Source (2002); Introduction of XML‐based Composite Applications (2006), with enhanced potential for creating value”
Service Oriented Architectures (2005), Virtualized Infrastructures (2004),
Web2/internet 2 (2007), Cloud Computing (2008), METAweb (2008)
“The customer rarely buys what the
company
thinks it is selling him”
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BOOK OF 2003
copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966
BOOK OF THE 1990’s
• Introduced the business world
to rethinking operations.
• Demonstrated how process
redesign can yield
breakthroughs in performance
breakthroughs in performance Plus 10,000 rebuttals

• Put the word quot;reengineeringquot; And 20+ books

into the English language.
Plus 2000+ rebuttals
And 5 books


Book of 2005 Book of 2008
• Thomas Friedman • Stephen Baker introduces us to the
– 3 billion people (consumers & producers) mathematical wizards who are digging
entered the world economies through our data to decode us as
• Eastern Europe (ie: Rumania) patients, shoppers, voters, potential
• Asia (ie: China, India) terrorists even lovers.
terrorists—even lovers.
– Now we have a “new” economy: • translate the complexity of highly
• Interconnected (fiber everywhere) intelligent knowledge workers into the
• Standardized (Open Source) same types of equations and algorithms
• Supply Chains Management that are used to fine‐tune shipping, sales
• Out‐sourcing, In‐sourcing, Off‐shoring
and other BI applications.
• Info sourcing

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A process of mutual shaping
Math based word cloud in a constantly changing context

TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY


Maslow’s hierarchy of needs Access Proliferation

• Video games • Radio • Satellite Radio
• Email • DVD • TiVo (Starhub PVR)
• XBox LIVE • Ring Tones • Video On-Demand
• Websites • TV • Newspapers
• IM • Blogs • Podcasting
• Search • Magazines • Cell Phone
Source: Darwin Day Conference, Google

and the effect on IT…….
The Peopleware Ecosystem
Identity Management
WCM
Composite App. Wireless Security
Framework
SSO Application Servers

Expertise Location EAI
& Mgmt.

Collaboration Web Services
Peopleware
BAM BPM
Directory E-Forms/Workflow

E-Learning
Search
Development Tools Business Intelligence

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Infrastructures influence the new T person OLDENBURG:  how infrastructure…
• infrastructure makes it possible Time is primarily spent in :
for people to work where they • First (home) place: isolated
want, when they want, how they • Second (work) place: isolated
want • Third places : neutral public space to
connect and establish bonds.
• SIX  abilities needed: Big Changes now:
1. Design – Beauty and uniqueness Your Text here
• Between 1990-2006: people went to
Your Text here

2. Story – More than mere facts anonymous locations such as malls
3. Symphony – Seeing the big picture • Starting in 2007: good third place makes
admission free or cheap (the price of a
4. Empathy – Understanding others cup of coffee), offers comforts, is within
5. Play ‐ Enjoyment walking distance and draws a group of
regulars.
6. Meaning – Fulfillment

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Defining the new world
T PERSON = Neo‐nomad Prof. Ragnar Frisch
• Willingness of people to
substitute as well as their ability
to substitute.
• One decision that people must
make is:
k
– how to allocate their time
endowment, which is the most
precious resource an individual
has.
Sveriges Riksbank Prize
Economic Sciences
Alfred Nobel 1969
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Neo‐nomads :  new Bedouins flourishing in
Nomad Worker (2008) vs.  Paris Existentialist (1950s)
the coffeehouses of central Israel
• A new breed of worker, fueled by Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and
laptop in Arcaffe (2008)
caffeine and using the tools of • simultaneously cramming for
modern technology exams, napping, instant-
messaging, researching, reading
• They are typically armed with and discussing, listening to music,
laptops and cell phones, paying for
laptops and cell phones paying for browsing and e-mailing
e mailing
their office space and Internet Paris existentialist watching the
world go by at the café Les Deux
access by buying coffee and muffins Magots (1950s)
• This neo‐nomads see themselves • puffing a Gitane, napping and
jotting down notes about being
changing the nature of the and nothingness
workplace, if not the world at large.

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An example:
2007:   the year of my discovery
2007:   the year of my discovery my romantic attachment to my “GPS”

• “SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND”
I could outsource mental tasks
Life is a math problem and I have a calculator
GPS

• MAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGE
Not that it allows us to know more • EXTERNALIZE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FROM MY
It really allows us to know less BRAIN
• OUTSOURCE  MAP READING SKILLS
• ALLOW CALCULATION OF DRIVE TIME

Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ? I have outsourced part of my life
outsourced
my son is calling from there to external cognitive servants
external cognitive servants:
• No longer need a • Musical taste:
memory – ITunes
– Google
– Yahoo • Books and others:
– Wikipedia – Amazon

• Personal Information • Social Capital
– Smartphone tells me – LinkedIn
about birthdays, phones,
addresses – Xing
– Facebook


Jimmy’s Touch Points
Blog Sites Music Sites
Reads his friend’s
postings Reads up on
new cd
releases

Movie Sites Downloads
Songs
y
Buys tickets
online

Sports Sites
Gets the latest
updates on
favorite teams
Gaming Sites
Looks for
information Checks scores
about Nascar
games Google.com
Searches for
“what’s cool”


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And with access to these tools I can answer
ANY question in less then 30 minutes
Banks YOUtube Business Average person:
Insurance Slideshare Simulations 10‐15 intimate
Travel Blogs Training 150 social
“Amazon” Newspapers Second Life 500‐1500 weak
“e‐bay” WIKIPEDIA Sales links

Transaction Sites Multimedia Sites Game Sites Social Sites

Websites can
no longer be
islands
Users want
bridges
elsewhere 80

Is it a coincidence or someone
How do they happen…..
is playing with us
1) Google's dissemination of old United Airlines news resulting in a precipitous UAL stock slide

2) Google stocks appeared to fall off a cliff during the final few minutes of trading last week(Silicon Alley
Insider has a minute-by-minute breakdown), plummeting from more than $400 per share to around $200.
Luckily, it turns out Nasdaq is declaring a “do-over,” canceling all trades above $425.28 or below $400.53.
Nasdaq blamed the drop on “erroneous orders” that were “triggered by orders routed from another
exchange.” So it has reset Google’s closing price at $400.52, up more than 5 percent from the day’s open.

3) Other news follows Google-related stock gaffe, during which Google Finance’s data was incorrect for
more than 12 hours
hours.

4) Apple stock briefly took a dive Friday after a CNN iReport post appeared saying Steve Jobs had had a
major heart attack. Apple said the story was false.
Stock prices fell as much as 5.4 percent before rebounding, according to Bloomberg. UPDATE: Here's CNN's
official statement. CNN says it removed the story because the community brought the story to its
attention. Importantly, CNN also refers to the content as quot;fraudulent,quot; which is much stronger than
quot;inaccurate.quot; The SEC has already launched an investigation.
What happened?
In all cases: systems unchecked by human beings made a mistake
resulting in massive damage to an already fragile market.
What else can we expect????????????
But the episodes aptly illustrates how jumpy the markets are and how easily they could be manipulated.
Posted by Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf

A powerful global conversation has begun “A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander
• Through the Internet, people are discovering and Each pattern describes a problem that
inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge occurs over and over again in our
with blinding speed.
environment
• Networked markets are beginning to self‐organize
faster than the companies that have traditionally
Then describes the core of the solution
served them.
served them. to that problem, in such a way that
you can use this solution a million Your Text here
Your Text here
• As a direct result and thanks to the web, markets
are becoming better informed, smarter, and more times over
demanding of qualities missing from most business Without ever doing it the
organizations.
• markets are getting smarter and getting smarter same way twice
faster than most companies


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Social Technographics™
Companies wake up !!!!!!! Josh Bernoff, co‐author of Groundswell

Customers are:
• writing about products on blogs JOSH BERNOFF CHARLENE LI

• recutting commercials on YouTube
• defining companies on Wikipedia
• g g g p
ganging up in social networking sites
g
like Facebook

MOST COMPANIES SEE IT AS A THREAT


METAweb METAweb

METAweb phenomenon
(fi-nom-uh-non)
noun
-noun
1. a rare or significant fact or event in the
web that happened in 2007
2. something that is impressive or
extraordinary that happened in 2007


Google versus ??? http://labs.google.com/
Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks,
and searches are the raw material)
Handful of cloud-wielding Internet giants like
Google, Yahoo! or Amazon.com transform the info
into insights, services, and, ultimately, revenue.


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Cloud Computing Why does it bother me ?

A. IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today ‐ Nov 15 2007
B. IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research Initiative for Cloud Computing
IT News Online ‐ Feb 7 2008
C. Google and Salesforce.com in cloud computing deal
Siliconrepublic.com ‐ Apr 14 2008


Google 10 years of innovation Google ad
Core Search Ads Monetization Communications Collaboration ?

1995 1998 2000 2003 2004 2005 2007 ?



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Open for Business


Internet 2  is not  Web 2


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Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing
WEB 2 are WEB  Technologies
WEB 2 are WEB

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Leveraging the Web for
Measureable Business Results In 2010: all new WEB experience
Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room
• Gone are the days when that can be experienced alone or with friends
merely having an online
presence was a
business breakthrough.
• Today's companies Your Text here Your Text here

MUST leverage the
power of the Web if
they're to gain and
maintain a competitive
advantage.


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Innovation Economy V3 (downloadable)

Innovation Economy V3 (downloadable)

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