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Intelligent DesignAnalyzing user stories like stocks                            Jon Innes                     August 15th,...
A quiz  What do the following have in common?   • To-do list   • Calendar   • Product backlog   • Stock portfolios  All ar...
Everyone has ideas…     http://www.flickr.com/photos/cayusa/981372736/in/photostream/UX INNOVATION LLC                    ...
Not all ideas are bright     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbonfilament.jpgUX INNOVATION LLC                        ...
Making the previously impossible possible     http:// www.old-picture.com/wright-brothers/First-Flight.htmUX INNOVATION LL...
Improving the currently possible     http:// www.l-lint.com/images/products/1024/465_gulfstream_g650.jpgUX INNOVATION LLC ...
Know the difference       Invent new market           Improved product           Likely MVP                Unlikely MVP   ...
Find a big unmet            need we can solve            well…        Scott Cook                         Founder IntuitUX ...
From Idea to Product Using Scrum                                                              Daily Scrum                 ...
Product Backlog: Stories          Backlog item                               Estimate    Allow a diner to make a reservati...
Sprint Backlog: Tasks  Tasks                     Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Fri  Code the user interface     8      4     8...
Bad story, good task     Fix flicker   timestamps?UX INNOVATION LLC                         12
What makes a good user story?     As a <user> I want to <action> so that <goal>   Clear to the rest of product team   De...
Invest smartly in user stories  INVEST                                            SMART  I-Independent                    ...
The Scrum sprint task boardImage from: http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/UX INNOVATION LLC                              ...
Scrum stories are like stocks…    • We invest in them, and we can test them    • But how good are we at       • Picking th...
A product backlog is like a stock portfolio       Yet most companies      spend very little time           analyzing it   ...
What can we learn from finance that applies?  In finance you’d analyze stocks in a portfolio based on:       α Alpha: Risk...
What your α? Focus vs. diversification           Most of us are           “seeking alpha”  α = high risk & high return    ...
Betting on β: Existing or growing markets  The first mover advantage is a myth     See the facts http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~t...
Been θ done that…                    Things change…      It takes all the running you can do, to      keep in the same pla...
A basic formula     Story Value = (market size) x (utility)             x (UX risk) x (tech risk)   Large & growing marke...
Determine β: Customer Development                    Do you have a market/user?                         Get out of the bui...
Solving for α β The Lean Startup way              Do you have a product?                              Build & measure it! ...
What is Lean?  Taiichi Ohno’s set of values and practices for removing  three types of inefficiencies:  • 無駄 = muda wasted...
The Lean UX way        Do you need to build a product?                         Prototype & measure it!     http://www.slid...
Focus on the “Wright” thing    The key concept in the    Wright brothers patent?      How to control the            plane ...
1     Who?                                                               Story Metric   6                     What?   2   ...
Change starts when people embrace new values  • Questions to ask on your team       • Have we validated these stories and ...
Final thoughts            It is not the strongest of            the species that survives,            nor the most intelli...
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Intelligent Design: Analyzing User Stories Like Stocks

These are my slides from my Aug 25th, 2012 talk at the San Francisco Bay Area ACM meeting.

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Intelligent Design: Analyzing User Stories Like Stocks

  1. 1. Intelligent DesignAnalyzing user stories like stocks Jon Innes August 15th, 2012
  2. 2. A quiz What do the following have in common? • To-do list • Calendar • Product backlog • Stock portfolios All are tools for making investment decisionsUX INNOVATION LLC 2
  3. 3. Everyone has ideas… http://www.flickr.com/photos/cayusa/981372736/in/photostream/UX INNOVATION LLC 3
  4. 4. Not all ideas are bright http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbonfilament.jpgUX INNOVATION LLC 4
  5. 5. Making the previously impossible possible http:// www.old-picture.com/wright-brothers/First-Flight.htmUX INNOVATION LLC 5
  6. 6. Improving the currently possible http:// www.l-lint.com/images/products/1024/465_gulfstream_g650.jpgUX INNOVATION LLC 6
  7. 7. Know the difference Invent new market Improved product Likely MVP Unlikely MVP But this is contextualUX INNOVATION LLC 7
  8. 8. Find a big unmet need we can solve well… Scott Cook Founder IntuitUX INNOVATION LLC 8
  9. 9. From Idea to Product Using Scrum Daily Scrum Meeting 24 Potentially Product Sprint hrs Shippable Backlog Backlog Product 2-4 Increment week SprintBased on image from: http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/UX INNOVATION LLC 9
  10. 10. Product Backlog: Stories Backlog item Estimate Allow a diner to make a reservation 3 As a diner, I want to cancel a reservation. 5 As a diner, I want to change the dates of a 3 reservation. As a restaurant employee, I can run reports to 8 determine our revenues Improve handling of now shows and cancelations 8 ... 30 ... 50UX INNOVATION LLC 10
  11. 11. Sprint Backlog: Tasks Tasks Mon Tues Wed Thur Fri Code the user interface 8 4 8 Code the middle tier 16 12 10 4 Test the middle tier 8 16 16 11 8 Write online help 12 Write the foo class 8 8 8 8 8 Add error logging 8 4UX INNOVATION LLC 11
  12. 12. Bad story, good task Fix flicker timestamps?UX INNOVATION LLC 12
  13. 13. What makes a good user story? As a <user> I want to <action> so that <goal>  Clear to the rest of product team  Defines user outcomes NOT team tasks or outputs  Just enough information to remember context later  Short, passes the “Twitter Test”UX INNOVATION LLC 13
  14. 14. Invest smartly in user stories INVEST SMART I-Independent S-Specific N-Negotiable M-Measurable V-Valuable A-Achievable E-Estimable R-Relevant S-Small T-Time-boxed T-Testable http://xp123.com/articles/invest-in-good-stories-and-smart-tasks/UX INNOVATION LLC 14
  15. 15. The Scrum sprint task boardImage from: http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/UX INNOVATION LLC 15
  16. 16. Scrum stories are like stocks… • We invest in them, and we can test them • But how good are we at • Picking them? • Measuring the ROI?UX INNOVATION LLC 16
  17. 17. A product backlog is like a stock portfolio Yet most companies spend very little time analyzing it What stories do we invest in? How well are our investments doing? Image from http:// www.myyblog.com/blog/2008/08/19/stock-portfolio-news-indicator/UX INNOVATION LLC 17
  18. 18. What can we learn from finance that applies? In finance you’d analyze stocks in a portfolio based on: α Alpha: Risk adjusted rate of return β Beta: Risk associated with the market θ Theta: Value decay due to passage of time And some other stuff that’s all Greek to me…UX INNOVATION LLC 18
  19. 19. What your α? Focus vs. diversification Most of us are “seeking alpha” α = high risk & high return When evaluating your product backlog always ask… What’s the focus? What’s the risk? Image from http:// http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=AAPL.trefis#UX INNOVATION LLC 19
  20. 20. Betting on β: Existing or growing markets The first mover advantage is a myth See the facts http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~tellis/pioneering.pdf /UX INNOVATION LLC 20
  21. 21. Been θ done that… Things change… It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. Red Queen Through the Looking GlassUX INNOVATION LLC 21
  22. 22. A basic formula Story Value = (market size) x (utility) x (UX risk) x (tech risk)  Large & growing market  Solves unmet need well  Users get concept and you’ve made it easy to use  Not technically impossible to buildUX INNOVATION LLC 22
  23. 23. Determine β: Customer Development Do you have a market/user? Get out of the building! http://steveblank.com/UX INNOVATION LLC 23
  24. 24. Solving for α β The Lean Startup way Do you have a product? Build & measure it! http://theleanstartup.com/UX INNOVATION LLC 24
  25. 25. What is Lean? Taiichi Ohno’s set of values and practices for removing three types of inefficiencies: • 無駄 = muda wasted outputs • 斑 = mura unnecessary inconsistencies • 無理 = muri wasted efforts It worked for Toyota…and it applies to other fields…UX INNOVATION LLC 25
  26. 26. The Lean UX way Do you need to build a product? Prototype & measure it! http://www.slideshare.net/clevergirl /UX INNOVATION LLC 26
  27. 27. Focus on the “Wright” thing The key concept in the Wright brothers patent? How to control the plane Others were more focused on engine power Image from http:// www.old-picture.com/wright-brothers/First-Flight.htmUX INNOVATION LLC 27
  28. 28. 1 Who? Story Metric 6 What? 2 Groom 3 Estimate 4 5 Assign Bonus: Add hyperlinks Market Metric 7 to deliverablesUX INNOVATION LLC 28
  29. 29. Change starts when people embrace new values • Questions to ask on your team • Have we validated these stories and personas? • Did the iteration incorporate measurable user feedback?  Do they like it?  Can they use it?  Would they recommend it to a friend?  Did we make it measurably better? • UX principles remain the same in agile • Iterations without user tests are a lost learning opportunity • Waiting until the end to test with users is the waterfall way • The definition of “done” can only be determined by usersUX INNOVATION LLC 29
  30. 30. Final thoughts It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change. Charles DarwinUX INNOVATION LLC 30

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