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Diffusion in platform-based
markets: big data driven
agent-based model
Jari Jussila
TLO, Novi tutkimuskeskus
Industrial Big Data Business Morning
10.2.2015
Updated 11.2.2015
Outline
• Introduction to InformationAnalytics
Research at Novi Research Center
• Agent-Based Modeling
• Case Study of Applying Big-data Driven
Agent-Based Model on Diffusion in
Platform-Based Markets
11.2.2015 2
Examples of Information
Analytics Research at Novi
11.2.2015 3
increasing amount of research
applying various data science
approaches to big/smart data, e.g.
web scraping, social network analysis,
agent-based modeling
Longitudinal research of business
intelligence’s current state in Finland
11.2.2015 4
Volume
Velocity
Variation
Veracity
Value
Novi Approach to Big Data
Data in Doubt
Data at Rest
Data in Motion
Data in
Many Forms
Developing and Applying a
Combination of Expertise
11.2.2015 5
Substantive
Expertise
Machine
Learning
Traditional
Research
Danger
Zone
Data
Science
Source: Smith 2010 Venn Diagram of Data Science
11.2.2015 6
Source: Borshchev & Filippov 2004
Examples of Different
Modeling Methods Used in
Research
11.2.2015 7
Pontus Huotari (LUT, Lappeenranta University of Technology)
Kati Järvi (LUT)
Samuli Kortelainen (LUT)
Jukka Huhtamäki (TUT, Tampere University of Technology)
Jari Jussila (TUT)
Diffusion in Platform-Based Markets:
Big Data Driven Agent-Based Model
How do competing innovations diffuse in
platform-based markets? PS3 vs. Xbox 360.vs.
Xbox 360.
Why did PS3 get
the most
adopters?
…more games
Xbox 360 was launched a year earlier and had…
… lower price … equally good games
Source: Huotari et al. 2014
Big Data Collection
• The agent-based model was fed with two
different types of data. Firstly, sales data of the
consoles was collected (Geekwire).
• Secondly, we collected data on the games with a
data science approach, using a Web scraper.
– We chose to use the Metacritic (2014) website as
the key source of game related data for our
agent-based model. Since Metacritic does not
provide a machine-readable access to interface
with its data, a tailored scraper was implemented
to access the data.
11.2.2015 9
Source: Huotari et al. 2014
11.2.2015 10
Source: http://www.metacritic.com/
11.2.2015 11
The main part of the model:
How consumers choose a console?
• The main variables that affect adoption decisions:
=
𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒅
𝒒𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒈𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒔
𝒐𝒏 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆
𝑷𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆
=
𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔 𝒐𝒏 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆
𝑷𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆
Source: Huotari et al. 2014
Decision Rules
• Agents make decisions based on defined decision rules
12/6
The amountof games on a console thatare aligned with the
preferences ofthe player
The amountof
friend among
the playersof a
console
PS3 = Xbox360 PS3 > Xbox360 PS3 < Xbox360
PS3 = Xbox360 Random choice PS3 Xbox360
PS3 > Xbox360 PS3 PS3
a) Xbox360 (games
are preferred)
b) PS3 (friends are
preferred)
PS3 < Xbox360 Xbox360
a) PS3 (games are
preferred)
b) Xbox360 (friends
are preferred)
Xbox360
Source: Huotari et al. 2014
Example of Decision Making
Based on Big Data
13/6
Which platform will win the competition?
Playstation 3 or Xbox 360?
Number of games Quality of games
Source: Huotari et al. 2014
Results of Predicted Sales
Compared Against Real Sales
14/6
Source: Huotari et al. 2014
So What?
• The models can be used to simulate
business decisions
– which action can lead to best increase in
profit?
– what are the business impacts of different
competitor actions?
…
– What would you like to know?
11.2.2015 15
Further information
11.2.2015 16
Twitter: @Noviresearch ja @tietojohtaminen
Novi homepage and blog:
https://www.tut.fi/novi/
Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/Noviresearch
YouTube: http://youtube.com/noviresearch
Tekes funded SPEED research project:
http://www.tut.fi/novi/projects/speed/

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Diffusion in platform-based markets: big data driven agent-based model

  • 1. Diffusion in platform-based markets: big data driven agent-based model Jari Jussila TLO, Novi tutkimuskeskus Industrial Big Data Business Morning 10.2.2015 Updated 11.2.2015
  • 2. Outline • Introduction to InformationAnalytics Research at Novi Research Center • Agent-Based Modeling • Case Study of Applying Big-data Driven Agent-Based Model on Diffusion in Platform-Based Markets 11.2.2015 2
  • 3. Examples of Information Analytics Research at Novi 11.2.2015 3 increasing amount of research applying various data science approaches to big/smart data, e.g. web scraping, social network analysis, agent-based modeling Longitudinal research of business intelligence’s current state in Finland
  • 4. 11.2.2015 4 Volume Velocity Variation Veracity Value Novi Approach to Big Data Data in Doubt Data at Rest Data in Motion Data in Many Forms
  • 5. Developing and Applying a Combination of Expertise 11.2.2015 5 Substantive Expertise Machine Learning Traditional Research Danger Zone Data Science Source: Smith 2010 Venn Diagram of Data Science
  • 6. 11.2.2015 6 Source: Borshchev & Filippov 2004 Examples of Different Modeling Methods Used in Research
  • 7. 11.2.2015 7 Pontus Huotari (LUT, Lappeenranta University of Technology) Kati Järvi (LUT) Samuli Kortelainen (LUT) Jukka Huhtamäki (TUT, Tampere University of Technology) Jari Jussila (TUT) Diffusion in Platform-Based Markets: Big Data Driven Agent-Based Model
  • 8. How do competing innovations diffuse in platform-based markets? PS3 vs. Xbox 360.vs. Xbox 360. Why did PS3 get the most adopters? …more games Xbox 360 was launched a year earlier and had… … lower price … equally good games Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  • 9. Big Data Collection • The agent-based model was fed with two different types of data. Firstly, sales data of the consoles was collected (Geekwire). • Secondly, we collected data on the games with a data science approach, using a Web scraper. – We chose to use the Metacritic (2014) website as the key source of game related data for our agent-based model. Since Metacritic does not provide a machine-readable access to interface with its data, a tailored scraper was implemented to access the data. 11.2.2015 9 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  • 11. 11.2.2015 11 The main part of the model: How consumers choose a console? • The main variables that affect adoption decisions: = 𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒅 𝒒𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒈𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒏 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 = 𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔 𝒐𝒏 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  • 12. Decision Rules • Agents make decisions based on defined decision rules 12/6 The amountof games on a console thatare aligned with the preferences ofthe player The amountof friend among the playersof a console PS3 = Xbox360 PS3 > Xbox360 PS3 < Xbox360 PS3 = Xbox360 Random choice PS3 Xbox360 PS3 > Xbox360 PS3 PS3 a) Xbox360 (games are preferred) b) PS3 (friends are preferred) PS3 < Xbox360 Xbox360 a) PS3 (games are preferred) b) Xbox360 (friends are preferred) Xbox360 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  • 13. Example of Decision Making Based on Big Data 13/6 Which platform will win the competition? Playstation 3 or Xbox 360? Number of games Quality of games Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  • 14. Results of Predicted Sales Compared Against Real Sales 14/6 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  • 15. So What? • The models can be used to simulate business decisions – which action can lead to best increase in profit? – what are the business impacts of different competitor actions? … – What would you like to know? 11.2.2015 15
  • 16. Further information 11.2.2015 16 Twitter: @Noviresearch ja @tietojohtaminen Novi homepage and blog: https://www.tut.fi/novi/ Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/Noviresearch YouTube: http://youtube.com/noviresearch Tekes funded SPEED research project: http://www.tut.fi/novi/projects/speed/