Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Diffusion in platform-based markets: big data driven agent-based model

1,610 views

Published on

Presentation of case study: Diffusion in platform-based markets: big data driven agent-based model based on Huotari et al. 2014 in Industrial Big Data Business Morning 10.2.2015 at Tampere University of Technology

Published in: Business
  • Login to see the comments

Diffusion in platform-based markets: big data driven agent-based model

  1. 1. Diffusion in platform-based markets: big data driven agent-based model Jari Jussila TLO, Novi tutkimuskeskus Industrial Big Data Business Morning 10.2.2015 Updated 11.2.2015
  2. 2. Outline • Introduction to InformationAnalytics Research at Novi Research Center • Agent-Based Modeling • Case Study of Applying Big-data Driven Agent-Based Model on Diffusion in Platform-Based Markets 11.2.2015 2
  3. 3. Examples of Information Analytics Research at Novi 11.2.2015 3 increasing amount of research applying various data science approaches to big/smart data, e.g. web scraping, social network analysis, agent-based modeling Longitudinal research of business intelligence’s current state in Finland
  4. 4. 11.2.2015 4 Volume Velocity Variation Veracity Value Novi Approach to Big Data Data in Doubt Data at Rest Data in Motion Data in Many Forms
  5. 5. Developing and Applying a Combination of Expertise 11.2.2015 5 Substantive Expertise Machine Learning Traditional Research Danger Zone Data Science Source: Smith 2010 Venn Diagram of Data Science
  6. 6. 11.2.2015 6 Source: Borshchev & Filippov 2004 Examples of Different Modeling Methods Used in Research
  7. 7. 11.2.2015 7 Pontus Huotari (LUT, Lappeenranta University of Technology) Kati Järvi (LUT) Samuli Kortelainen (LUT) Jukka Huhtamäki (TUT, Tampere University of Technology) Jari Jussila (TUT) Diffusion in Platform-Based Markets: Big Data Driven Agent-Based Model
  8. 8. How do competing innovations diffuse in platform-based markets? PS3 vs. Xbox 360.vs. Xbox 360. Why did PS3 get the most adopters? …more games Xbox 360 was launched a year earlier and had… … lower price … equally good games Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  9. 9. Big Data Collection • The agent-based model was fed with two different types of data. Firstly, sales data of the consoles was collected (Geekwire). • Secondly, we collected data on the games with a data science approach, using a Web scraper. – We chose to use the Metacritic (2014) website as the key source of game related data for our agent-based model. Since Metacritic does not provide a machine-readable access to interface with its data, a tailored scraper was implemented to access the data. 11.2.2015 9 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  10. 10. 11.2.2015 10 Source: http://www.metacritic.com/
  11. 11. 11.2.2015 11 The main part of the model: How consumers choose a console? • The main variables that affect adoption decisions: = 𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒅 𝒒𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒈𝒂𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒏 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 = 𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔 𝒐𝒏 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 𝑷𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒆 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  12. 12. Decision Rules • Agents make decisions based on defined decision rules 12/6 The amountof games on a console thatare aligned with the preferences ofthe player The amountof friend among the playersof a console PS3 = Xbox360 PS3 > Xbox360 PS3 < Xbox360 PS3 = Xbox360 Random choice PS3 Xbox360 PS3 > Xbox360 PS3 PS3 a) Xbox360 (games are preferred) b) PS3 (friends are preferred) PS3 < Xbox360 Xbox360 a) PS3 (games are preferred) b) Xbox360 (friends are preferred) Xbox360 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  13. 13. Example of Decision Making Based on Big Data 13/6 Which platform will win the competition? Playstation 3 or Xbox 360? Number of games Quality of games Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  14. 14. Results of Predicted Sales Compared Against Real Sales 14/6 Source: Huotari et al. 2014
  15. 15. So What? • The models can be used to simulate business decisions – which action can lead to best increase in profit? – what are the business impacts of different competitor actions? … – What would you like to know? 11.2.2015 15
  16. 16. Further information 11.2.2015 16 Twitter: @Noviresearch ja @tietojohtaminen Novi homepage and blog: https://www.tut.fi/novi/ Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/Noviresearch YouTube: http://youtube.com/noviresearch Tekes funded SPEED research project: http://www.tut.fi/novi/projects/speed/

×