The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an informed decision

The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture …
On Brexit …
?
April 2016 …

The Saturday Economist on Brexit
At the Saturday Economist we always like
to keep you in the picture. In this April
report, we endeavour to deliver an
objective and dispassionate analysis of the
pros and cons of Brexit.
We provide the facts and information to
assist the decision making process for all
our readers. No polemics just the facts.
We assess the implications of leaving the
EU and outline the alternative relationships
that could ensue - the Danish model, the
Swiss Model, the Icelandic model and the
Turkish option.
In addition we will consider the impact on
UK growth, investment, trade, Sterling,
immigration, sovereignty and security of
the in-out decision.

Don’t miss this important update … all
the information you need to make an
informed decision.

On Brexit … The Spectrum of Issues …
?
Business Economic
SocialPolitical
Immigration
NHS
We think it is important to differentiate
the main issues into business,
economic, political and social …
Trade
Investment
Uncertainty
Sovereignty …
Who governs Britain …
Growth
Jobs
Inﬂation
Trade
Deﬁcits
Current Account
Borrowing
Sterling

The Saturday Economist … we always keep you in the picture.
12th March 2016
Avoiding jingoism and post imperial
calls to action …

The Key Question …
?
Should the UK remain a member of
the EU or leave the EU …

Should the UK remain a member of the EU
or leave the EU …
The polls suggest the outcome will be
pretty close on the 23rd June ….

Should the UK remain a member of the EU
or leave the EU …
The FT poll is rather more supportive
of the “Remain” case …

It is not, or should not be a choice
between Europe and the Rest of the
World …. we need to trade with both
…

Geographically we are part of Europe
like it or not … “Gravitational pull” has
a signiﬁcant impact on trade ﬂows …

Eurozone
The Saturday Economist … we always keep you in the picture.
The EU is not a “basket case”

Eurozone Q4 2015Latest
Data
GDP 1.5%
Growth Rate
2015
1.6%
2016
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
-0.1 1.3 -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.97
Our Forecasts - Euro GDP Growth this year
2014
0.9%
2015
1.5%
… and by quarter %
Growth Rate
Data
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1.71.61.5
0.9
-0.4-0.6
1.6
1.9
Euro GDP
Eurozone GDP Change year on year … Eurozone Inﬂation …
Date of Next Update :
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1.2
0.50.00.4
1.3
2.5
2.7
1.6
Euro Inﬂation
Release Date

14th August
A slow recovery is taking place.
Growth in Ireland was 7.5% and in
Spain it was 4.5% in 2015 …

On monetary policy …
Mario Draghi is set to do whatever it
takes …

How difﬁcult is it to leave …
?
So how difﬁcult is it to leave?…

Article 50
Simple really, we invoke Article 50 …
An Article with 5 clauses and about
270 words …

How long will it take …
?
How long will it take to exit?
We have no idea. it has never been done before. Exit
could take up to two years to organise but it could
take even longer. Then we still have to negotiate a
new trade deal …
How long will a trade deal take?
That could take a further five to ten years at
least …
Canada and the EU “CETA”
The Trade deal with Canada and the EU
has taken almost ten years to negotiate …
it could take a similar period to determine
the UK : EU deal …
USA and the EU “TTIP”
The Trade deal with USA and the EU is an
ongoing negotiation which began in 2013
… there is no guarantee of the US
commitment to a Free Trade Deal on the
scale envisaged by the EU …
USA and the UK …
There is no reason why the UK would be
able to jump the UK in bilateral talks prior
to a satisfactory out turn for a “TTIP” deal
…
Trans Pacific Partnership…
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a
trade agreement among twelve Pacific
Rim countries signed on 4 February 2016
in Auckland, New Zealand, after seven
years of negotiations.
Historically, the TPP is an expansion of
the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic
Partnership Agreement (TPSEP or P4),
which was signed by Brunei, Chile, New
Zealand, and Singapore in 2005
Ten Years
Ten Years
Ten Years?

How long will it take … The “Leave” deal is an impossible ask!
?
Basis of ”Leave Camp” Deal ..
The Leave Camp appear to want …
Free trade in goods …
Free trade in Services …
Free movement of Capital …
Free from payments into the EU …
Free from commitment to Free movement of Labour …
Free from product and labour regulation …
That could take forever …
And an impossible “give”

And what of free trade deals with the rest of the world …
?
Iceland and China
Iceland negotiated a Free Trade deal with
China. It took six years for trade flows
valued at $180 million largely confined to
fish, Ice and Igloos.
Even then there were restrictions on
paper products to China and food
products into Iceland …
Six Years

Be careful what you wish for … the deficits could just get worse
?
UK and China …
The UK trade deficit with China was £25
billion in 2015. The UK exported £13
billion worth of goods into China …
China exported £38 billion of goods into
the UK even with EU tariffs in place …
The deficit could just get worse …
UK and Norway …
The UK trade deficit with Norway was
£10 billion in 2015. The UK exported £3
billion worth of goods into Norway in
2015.
Norway exported £13 billion of goods into
the UK even with EU restrictions in place
…
UK and Canada …
The UK trade deficit with Canada was £3
billion in 2015. The UK exported £4 billion
worth of goods into Norway in 2015.
Canada exported £7 billion of goods into
…
UK and Japan …
The UK trade deficit with Japan was over
£2 billion in 2015. The UK exported £5
billion worth of goods into Japan in 2015.
Japan exported £7 billion of goods into
…
China
Trade deficit
£25 billion
Norway
Trade deficit
£10 billion Canada
Trade deficit
£ 4 billion
Japan
Trade deficit
£ 2 billion

How important is the EU to the UK and vice versa …
?

Comparative Sizes
Size of economies (GDP, $bn)
The EU is the largest trading block in
the world … excluding the UK it would
be the second largest trading block in
the world after the USA ….

Comparative Sizes
Size of economies (GDP, $bn)
3,860
2,836
G
erm
any
France
4,616
Japan
2,597
The UK is the ﬁfth (or sixth) largest
economy in the world … after USA.
China, Germany, Japan and possibly
France …

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030
North America
Asean
China
Japan
Europe
Share of World GDP
It is true to say, Europe’s share of
world GDP is declining as the ASEAN
block expands …

China China will dominate the world growth
story in the years ahead …
It is the second largest economy in
the world …
With a population of 1.3 billion …
China struggles to enter the world top
eighty in terms of GDP per capital …

The Saturday Economist - we always keep you in the picture
6th February 2016
China
Return of the Middle Kingdom …
We talk of the return of the Middle
Kingdom …

China - Return of the Middle Kingdom
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2003 2014
22%
25%
29%
22%
33%
17%
9%
5% 5%
15%
13%
22%
24%
29%
23%
37%
28%
24%
22%
23%
21%
18%
Share
Share of World Population
Share of World GDP
Data : Maddison A. Contours of the World Economy 1 - 2030 AD OUP
In the 17th century and in the early
19th century … China was the largest
economy in the world …

6th February 2016
The importance of being ASEAN …
The ASEAN trade block is of critical
importance to China …

6th February 2016
China
Collectively the ASEAN block
accounts for 50% of world population
and 30% of World GDP …
Growing at 4.5% per annum …

6th February 2016
China
The UK is not guaranteed a trade slot
in the ASEAN trade group …
The ASEAN block accounts for just
16% of UK exports …

Share of EU Exports
Others
38%
4%
6% 5%3%2%3%
China
8%
USA
15%
UK
16%
UK USA China Japan Korea Norway
Russia Switzerland Turkey Others
The UK accounts for 16% of EU
exports …

Share of UK Exports
3%2%5%
7%
ASEAN
16%
North America
20%
EU
47%
EU North America ASEAN MENA
Other Europe South America Other nc
The EU accounts for 47% of UK
exports …
A wider Europe accounts for 52% of
UK exports …
Europe
52%

Trade Data 2015
£ billion UK to EU % GDP EU to UK % GDP
Deﬁcit /
Surplus
Exports
Goods
£134.4 7.2% £223.4 1.6% -£89.0
Exports
Services
£85.7 4.6% £65.7 0.4% + £20.0
Exports
Total
£220.1 11.8% £289.1 2.0% -£69.0
Trade Data : ONS 2015
EU trade with UK accounts for 2% of
EU GDP …
UK trade with EU accounts for 12% of
UK GDP …

Share of UK Exports
North America
Europe
It is true to say, the EU share of UK
exports is falling …

Share of Trade
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
UK Share of Trade with EU … Trade in Goods
Share of Exports
We expect the trend to continue in the
years ahead, whilst the EU share of
imports is likely to be maintained at
around 55% …
Share of Imports
Remain basis

Share Trade
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
UK Share of Trade with EU … Trade in Services
Share of Exports
Trade in services are expected to be
much more stable … EU 48% of
service sector imports
UK exports to the EU around 40% of
total exports …
Share of Imports
Remain basis

Share Trade
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
UK Share of Trade with EU … Trade in Goods and Services
Share of Exports
Share of Imports
This is the pattern of trade in goods
and services with the EU …
Import shares are steady whilst the
UK develops greater trade links with
the rest of the world …
Remain basis

UK Trade Total
Total Goods Trade …
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
£ million
This is the pattern of total trade in
goods … the deﬁcits set to continue
and expand …

UK Trade Total
Total Services Trade …
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
£ million
This is the pattern of total trade in
services … the surplus set to
continue and expand …

For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .com
Trade with EU
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Trade in Goods Deficit with EU …
The UK has a huge deficit trade in
goods with the EU … we expect a
deficit of £100 billion in 2016 …

-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Trade in Services Surplus with EU …
Trade with EU
The UK has a huge surplus in
services with the EU … we expect +
£20 billion surplus in 2016 …

Trade with EU
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Trade in Goods and Services Deﬁcit with EU …
The UK has a huge deﬁcit in goods
and services with the EU …

UK Trade with EU
£ million
This is the hard data behind the
charts!
At the Saturday Economist … we
don’t just make up the numbers …

Cost of Eu Contributions
Trade with EU
This is the pattern of EU trade in
goods … with member companies

Trade with Europe ...
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
-30 -22.5 -15 -7.5 0 7.5 15
UK trade deﬁcits with other members states
Goods and services, £ billion, 2014
This is the wider analysis …

Trade with EU
This is the pattern of trade in goods
and services by product …

The importance of FDI
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 1 and 2 Overseas net stock of assets held in the UK and earnings received
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fig 1 EU Assets in UK … Fig 2 EU Earnings in UK …
0
120
240
360
480
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fig 3 UK Assets in EU …
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fig 4 UK Earnings in EU …
Figure 3 and 4 UK net stock of assets held overseas and earnings received
This is the pattern of foreign
investment and earnings …

How much does it cost the UK …
?

Costs of EU
Cost of EU Contributions
£350 million per week?

Costs of EU
• Gross Cost £18.0 billion
• Rebate £ 5.0 billion
• Receipts £ 4.5 billion
• Net Cost £ 8.5 billion
• Receipts relate to farming subsidies and poor area allocation. Figures are for 2015. Source HM Treasury "European Union Finances
2015. • Net cost - £23 million per day
£350 million per week (£18 billion per
annum) is the Gross cost before
rebate and receipts …

Costs of EU
• Full Cost £18.0 billion
• Rebate £ 5.0 billion
• Receipts £ 4.5 billion
• Net Cost £ 8.5 billion
• Receipts relate to farming subsidies and poor area allocation. Figures are for 2015. Source HM Treasury "European Union Finances
2015. • Net cost - £23 million per day
The net cost is £8.5 billion…
More like £160 million per week …

How much does the EU cost …
?
£160 million per week but is that
value for money …

Costs of EU and Allocation
€ 132,961.30
2014
c 1% of GDP
Financing of the general budget and EU expenditure by member state (2014)[29]
6%
14%
Internal Policies
10%
Structural Fund
30%
CAP
40%
CAP Structural Fund
Internal Policies Pre Accession / Compensation
Admin
The EU budget is €133 billion that’s
1% of EU GDP approximately …
Most of which is accounted for by
the common agricultural budget …
Just 6% is spent on administration …
How much does the EU cost …

EU Budget Who Pays
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Italy
Sweden
Austria
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Cyprus
Croatia
Malta
Spain
Estonia
Slovenia
Latvia
Slovakia
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Portugal
Romania
Greece
Hungary
Poland
-18,000 -13,500 -9,000 -4,500 0 4,500 9,000 13,500 18,000
Winners and Losers
Financing of the general budget and EU expenditure by member state (2014)[29]
Germany is the largest contributor …
Poland, Hungary the largest
beneﬁciaries …

The Big Issues …
?
So what are the big issues …

The Big Issues …
Regulation costing £27 billion!
Working Time Directive
Temporary Agency Workers Directive
Energy and Climate Change

The Big Issues …
Here are the claims of savings from
the leave camp …
We haven’t veriﬁed
these numbers …

The Big Issues …
And the proposals for change

The Big Issues …
Chemicals and Health
Emissions Trading System
Common Security
and Defence Policy
The Bigger list …

The Options …
?

The Options
Current Deal
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Canada Turkey

The Options
1.1 This paper looks at the potential models for the UK’s relationship with the European
Union, if there were to be a vote to leave. It provides examples of countries that are not
members of the EU but have other arrangements with it – specifically Norway, Switzerland,
Canada and Turkey – and describes those arrangements. It also looks at a possible
relationship based only on World Trade Organisation membership.
1.2 These models offer different balances in terms of advantages, obligations and
influence. If the result of the referendum were a vote to leave, we would seek the best
possible balance of advantage for the UK. However, regardless of the preferred outcome
the UK seeks, the precedents clearly indicate that we would need to make a number of trade-offs:
•• in return for full access to the EU’s free-trade Single Market in key UK industries, we
would have to accept the free movement of people;
•• access to the Single Market would require us to implement its rules. But from
outside, the UK would no longer have a vote on these rules. And there is no
guarantee that we could fully replicate our existing cooperation in other areas, such
as cross-border action against criminals;
•• full access to the Single Market would require us to continue to contribute to the EU’s
programmes and budget;
•• an approach based on a Free Trade Agreement would not come with the same level
of obligations, but would mean UK companies had reduced access to the Single
Market in key sectors such as services (almost 80 per cent of the UK economy),1 and
would face higher costs;
••we would lose our preferential access to 53 markets2 outside the EU with which
the EU has Free Trade Agreements. This would take years to renegotiate, with no
guarantee that the UK would obtain terms as good as those we enjoy today; and
•• in order to maintain the rights of UK citizens living, working and travelling in other EU
countries, we would almost certainly have to accept reciprocal arrangements for their
citizens in the UK.
1.3 It would take up to a decade or more to negotiate a new agreement with the EU and to
replace our existing trade deals with other countries. Moreover, each of the alternative
models would come with significant obligations and costs for the UK:
•• the Norway model has considerable access to the Single Market but not in
agriculture and fisheries. It does not give access to the EU’s trade deals with
countries outside the EU and still requires customs checks on goods crossing into
the EU. It also involves making a significant contribution to EU spending, accepting
free movement of people, and taking on EU rules without having a vote on them;
•• bilateral agreements vary, but none provide full access to services, which constitute
almost 80 per cent of the UK economy. Higher levels of access to the Single Market
involve implementing EU rules in domestic legislation, accepting free movement (as
in the case of Switzerland), and in some cases making contributions to EU spending.
The EU-Canada Trade Agreement provides reduced access to the Single Market for
example in services and agriculture; and
•• if we could not reach agreement with the EU on a new arrangement, our trading
arrangements would revert to WTO rules. This would provide the most complete
break with the EU. It does not entail accepting free movement, budgetary
contributions or implementing EU rules. But it would cause a major economic shock
to the UK. WTO rules mean that the EU, and all countries with which we currently
have trade deals, would have no choice but to apply WTO tariffs on exports from
the UK – putting our companies at a competitive disadvantage. Meanwhile, the UK
would face a difficult choice between either raising tariffs on imports from the EU
or lowering tariffs on imports from all countries. Raising tariffs would have knockon
effects on UK jobs and incomes, as well as on the attractiveness of the UK as a
destination for international investment. Lowering tariffs would deny the UK revenue,
and undermine our negotiating position in future trade deals.
1.4 Under any of these alternatives, there would also be a non-economic cost, in terms of
the UK’s security and strength. The European Arrest Warrant and the Schengen Informatio
System, for instance, allow our law-enforcement agencies to obtain and act on information
from their EU counterparts. Even if over time we manage to negotiate replacement bilatera
agreements, there is no guarantee that we could fully replace our access to current EU
measures for police and security cooperation. And we would no longer be able, as we
are now, to use the EU as one of our major tools, like our membership of the UN or other
international organisations, to project UK influence in the world, or to use the EU’s
economic
weight to impose sanctions, such as those it has imposed on Russia or Iran.
1.5 We need to assess the benefits offered by any alternative model against what the UK’s
membership of the EU gives us now. The UK Government believes that no existing model
outside the EU comes close to providing the same balance
March 2016

The Big Ask … from the “Leave” camp …
?
A Free Trade Agreement for goods and services …
A Free Trade Agreement for Capital…
Restrictions on Labour migration…
No EU budget payment …
Free from EU regulation on goods, labour and capital …
An impossible ask …
An impossible give …
An impossible deal …

The Big Risks …
?

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
50 % of trade is at stake
With no guarantee of post exit trade deals
Trade deﬁcits with China, Japan, Norway and Canada could get worse
Cars, Aerospace and Financial Services particularly at risk

Costs of EU
Trade and Tariffs
The tariffs at issue …

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment … at risk
Uncertainty … in the short term
Strategic … Motor, Aerospace and ﬁnancial in the medium term …

The Big Risks
Growth and Jobs …
CBI …
3 million jobs related to EU
1 million jobs could be lost
The Economic estimates vary widely and
wildly …
The CBI estimates that 3 million jobs are
related to trade with the EU …
Of which 1 million could be lost in the
worst case …

Costs of EU
This is the range according to
the PwC CBI sensitivities …

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
Uncertainty short term
Strategic … long term
3 Financial Services

Growth
Financial Services …
Relocation
Passporting
Financial Services could be
the biggest area of impact,
w i t h m a n y i n s t i t u t i o n s
relocating to ensure Passport
access is maintained …
It will also be the toughest
area of negotiation with strong
competition from EU ﬁnancial
centres in Paris and elsewhere
…
The Big Risks …

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
3 Financial Services …
4 Trade Deﬁcits …

For more information - Check out The Saturday Economist .comDate of Next Update : 10th October

Heading in the wrong direction …
The Big Risks …
Trade deﬁcits are likely
to deteriorate in a free
trade world …

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
5 Capital Account
“Putting more pressure on the capital account”

-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
UK Current Account Deficit % of GDP
The UK has a significant current account
deficit over 5% in 2015 …
We are already reliant on the “kindness of
strangers” to finance the deficit holding 25%
of UK Gilts and 50% of UK capital markets
…
The Big Risks …

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling

MarchLatest
DataSterling
£1.4514
Dollar Spot
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sterling Dollar Daily Rate
Dollar Rate $
Resistance
$1.6800
$1.5000
Support
$1.70 resistance level
Which way for Sterling?
$1.50 support level
Technical
Short Rates
Long Rates
Money
Capital Flows
Portfolio
-0.15 0 0.15 0.3
Sterling Dollar
18th March
T h e r e a r e s o m e
suggestions Sterling
could fall by 20% …
The Big Risks …

0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sterling Euro Daily Rate
Latest
DataSterling
€1.2853
Euro Spot
Euro Rate
€1.28 resistance / support level
Which way for Sterling?
€
March Resistance
$1.4000
$1.2800
Support
€1.40 resistance level
Technical
Short Rates
Long Rates
Money
Capital Flows
Portfolio
-0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5
Sterling Euro
18th March
In the short term as a
result of uncertainty
and volatility … in the
long term as a result of
capital outﬂows ..
The Big Risks …

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
7 Agriculture and the CAP …

Common Agricultural Policy
CAP accounts for 40%
of EU spend …
Set to fall to 30% over
the next ﬁve years
N F U i s v o t i n g t o
remain …
With large proportion of
trade with EU at risk …
Farm subsidies £1.5
billion could be lost if
Brexit happens…
But could be funded by
HMG from EU payment
savings …

NFU pro 50% incomes dependent
Key markets could be
l o s t i f t a r i ff s a r e
imposed …
The Big Risks …

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
8 Fisheries CFP

The Saturday Economist on Brexit and Fishing …
The Big Risks …
It’s not just about “our” ﬁsh …

The Saturday Economist on Brexit and Fishing …
The Big Risks …
It’s not just about “our” ﬁsh …
World wide agreements are
necessary

The Big Risks …
?
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
8 Fisheries CFP
9 Migration

Immigration
The Big Risks …
N e t m i g r a t i o n i s
300,000 …

Immigration
The Big Risks …
Almost 200,000 is
study related …

Immigration
The Big Risks …
Almost half from the
EU …

Immigration
Total EU immigration is
260,000 …
The Big Risks …

Immigration
The Big Risks …
We have no control over borders …
We must control EU immigration …
Puts pressure on schools and NHS
A drain on welfare …
Deﬂationary - low level of pay …
Taking “British” jobs
We do have control over borders …
Free movement of labour is an EU principle
NHS is reliant on immigration to maintain staff levels …
Some welfare access in place re timing and pricing …
Provides essential labour pool …
UK approaching “Full Employment” …
We have more vacancies than claimants …
Immigration a source of growth to fund Schools and NHS
Leave … Remain …
The Arguments

The Big Risks …
?
9 Migration
10 Inﬂation
Immigration cap could push up pay
Tariff reductions could lower prices
11 Timetable
It will take a long time to set up ..
China - Iceland $180m
Canada - EU - CETA 10 years
12 Growth …
Will be hit - trade & investment
Motor, Aerospace (Airbus) & Finance
13 Jobs …
3.0 to 3.5 m jobs dependent on EU trade
14 Balance of Payments
Will deteriorate faster
15 Government Borrowing
largely neutral
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
8 Fisheries CFP

The Big Risks …
?
9 Migration
10 Inﬂation
Immigration cap could push up pay
Tariff reductions could lower prices
11 Timetable
It will take a long time to set up ..
China - Iceland $180m
Canada - EU - CETA 10 years
12 Growth …
Will be hit - trade & investment
Motor, Aerospace (Airbus) & Finance
13 Jobs …
3.0 to 3.5 million jobs dependent on EU tr
14 Balance of Payments
Will deteriorate faster
15 Government Borrowing
largely neutral
16 Scotland …
Threat to union?
17 Science Tech
Neutral - subsidies lost could
be HMG funded
18 Security …
Brexit won’t help
19 Peace …
NATO and EU issues
EU is a force for peace internal
NATO is a force for peace external
20 Sovereignty
A political issue
1 Trade …
2 Investment …
5 Capital Account
6 Sterling
8 Fisheries CFP

?
Leave says the UK is “powerless to prevent
laws that damage our country”. But the UK
enjoys 12.7% of votes in the EU Council, a veto
in key areas and influence on many issues.
The Big Risks … Sovereignty
In the UK data suggest that from 1997 to 2009
6.8% of primary legislation (Statutes) and
14.1% of secondary legislation (Statutory
Instruments) had a role in implementing EU
obligations, although the degree of involvement
varied from passing reference to explicit
implementation.
Source How much legislation comes from Europe?
House of Commons Library October 2010
Who governs Britain?
The leave camp take exception to .
The Working Time Directive
The Temporary Agency Workers Directive
The Energy and Climate Change legislation but
Most of these are welcomed by progressive
business
Between 1993 and 2014, 64.7 per cent of UK law can be
deemed to be EU-influenced. EU regulations accounted for
59.3 per cent of all UK law. UK laws implementing EU
directives accounted for 5.4 per cent.
This body of legislation consists of 49,699 exclusively ‘EU’
regulations and 4,532 UK measures which implement EU
directives.
This figure is important because EU regulations are
transposed into national law without passing through
Parliament. Hence, they do not appear in the recent
calculation by the House of Commons Library which
estimates the proportion of EU legislation at 13.3 per cent.3
The 13.3 per cent
Source Business for Britain Tim Philpott
The level of influence is confused …

?
The CBI
The EEF
The SMMT
The NFU
The Big Risks …
Voting to remain …

On Brexit … The Spectrum of Issues …
?
Business Economic
SocialPolitical
Immigration
NHS
We think it is important to differentiate
the main issues into business,
economic, political and social …
Trade
Investment
Uncertainty
Sovereignty …
Growth
Jobs
Inﬂation
Trade
Deﬁcits
Current Account
Borrowing
Sterling
“Whatever we may think of the
political and social arguments …
There is no “Business Case” for
Brexit"

The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an informed decision

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The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an informed decision