Futures strategies spotlight presentation CMTC by Joe Murphy librarian futurist
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Foresight strategies presented at the Christa McAuliffe Technology Conference in New Hampshire by Joe Murphy librarian and futurist December, 2015. From a librarian to a foresight manager, Joe Murphy shares methods for planning the future through strategic foresight.
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Futures strategies spotlight presentation CMTC by Joe Murphy librarian futurist
- 1. Strategic Education Directions & Getting There Through Foresight Joe Murphy University of Houston MS in Foresight program. SFSU Exec. MBA Christa McAuliffe technology Conference. Manchester, NH. Dec, 2015
- 2. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy What if foresight factored in to design? Many Londoners disrupted by Tube strikes stuck with their change commutes after finding them more efficient despite what the Tube map optimized. The popular Tube map was not designed with future economic and social factors in mind. https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/224813/response/560395/attach/3/London%20Connections%20Map.pdf produced by Transport for London
- 3. Predictions @libraryfuture Joe Murphy The FUTURE Multiple alternative futures Approaches to the future Multiple alternative futures Multiple alternative futures
- 4. There are no rules about the future but are there laws? @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
- 5. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy http://www.houstonforesight.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FF-slide-version.png The future is unknown, not unknowable
- 6. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Mapping Art by Eileen Jerrett
- 7. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy unwrapping the present, the current era Art by Eileen Jerrett
- 8. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy https://coggle.it/
- 9. Questions in the context of technology in education and learning • 1. What current facts/variables dominate the discussion about technology in learning? • 2. Who are the important stakeholders in the education and technology ecosystem? • 3. Beyond the above stakeholders, who else is impacting the environment that should be considered? • 4. What basic past events began the current era of technology in learning? • 5. Name a few Trends (trends say “more” or “less” of something) of note in the arena. • 6. What are the most important and uncertain items facing us? • 7. What disrupting events, expected or not, may impact where the future is headed? • 8. What issues (conflicts/controversies/dilemmas and choices) whose resolution will impact futures. • 9. What new intriguing ideas, images, or perspectives are emerging? Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
- 10. STEEP QUESTIONS Joe Murphy @libraryfuture • What factors in the following areas have potential to impact the education ecosystem? • Political/regulatory - ______ • Economic factors - ______ • Social and cultural factors, the human and society side - ______ • Technology - ______ • Please name an accepted assumption about the future of education in a technological world. • Are there any weak signals that put that assumption at risk?
- 15. Alternative Futures @libraryfuture Joe Murphy The prototypical futurist tool
- 16. Preferred Future @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
- 19. Strategic options, how we might respond to the issues What is the issue? _________________ Why is it important? _________________ What should we do about it? (actions required) _________________ How do we make it happen (resources required) _________________ Who “owns” it? (responsibility) _________________ @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
- 20. Design Thinking @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Art by Eileen Jerrett
- 21. Systems Thinking @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
- 23. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Six Pillars as another foresight method
- 25. Cross impact analysis Variable 1 Variable 2 Event 1 Event 2 @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
- 26. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Art by Eileen Jerrett
- 27. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Big questions
- 29. If we are now in the knowledge age, what is next? Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
- 30. Joe Murphy @libraryfuture What to ask/give futurists? Listen for implications when presented with “the future of X is Y” ask for: what you can provide as the industry insider (trends, scanning hits, ) to help guide a foresight framework? share assumptions, facts on recent historical era
- 31. Joe Murphy @libraryfuture studying our future ~ studying the past Island California we map the future that we expect https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/rs814r m1327 Copyright © Stanford University. Creative Commons License. Image from the Glen McLaughlin Map Collection courtesy Stanford University Libraries. https://purl.stanford.edu/rs814rm1327
- 32. A simple goal For us to walk away with an additional question or two to ask when considering our futures Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
- 33. Takeaways The future does not have to be a surprise The future does not have to be solely pushed externally When the future is a surprise - you have what it takes to deal with it (and guide it) Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
- 34. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy “What is a futurist?” Houston Foresight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff0j5s8e1M0
- 35. Joe Murphy My Story: Physics Degree -> MLISc – Uni Hawaii -> Yale Science Librarian -> Director Library Futures -> MBA -> M.S. Foresight My Habitat: http://libraryfuture.com Libraryfuture@gmail.com Twitter @libraryfuture www.linkedin.com/in/joemurphylibraryfuture
Editor's Notes
- This geographically accurate London Tube map took a freedom of info act to release. This story reveals how design impacts futures, explores now vs long term costs, helps us understand the value of peripheral vision and blind spots revealed through disruption (if most of our forecasts include X, in what situations might X be tossed aside?). The lesson I take away is about incorporating multiple approaches to futures (design thinking), considering multiple stakeholders (today’s and tomorrow’s workers and their ec0nomic web), the question of how to measure impacts for metrics that have not emerged, soft and hard soft impacts and foresight solutions (the people and their economic impact).
- Ways of looking at the future. Discrete events, a singular future, alternative futures via foresight
- The future is knowable. As knowable as the past.
- We have a process - a set of strategies, dominated by the Framework Foresight model. Framework Foresight Graphic - http://www.houstonforesight.org/?p=4289
- We first map the domain
- Current Assessment, understand the cohesive current era
- Basic example of a domain mind map
- We created this mind map live using https://coggle.it/ filing in the key stakeholders, trends (more or less, a vector with direction and magnitude), and Issues. Great live audience input.
- Mapping recent history. What defined the previous time period?
- Scanning as a Structure to horizon scanning. This scanning hit form is used in the University of Houston Framework foresight model.
- The Baseline future is an extension of what we see now. Current plans & projections will continue, defined by macro trends and indicators. Baseline futures are interesting because they explore the current conditions and their consequences extrapolated out tens of years. It is thus the least likely. If we stop at the baseline we are making a prediction and not a forecast.
- Alternative Futures are the ‘prototypical futurist tool.’ Because all futures contain built in uncertainties and there are multiple plausible futures, we think in uncertainties within a range of plausible futures. A cone of possibility. Beyond the baseline, alternative futures are driven by weak signals, by asking what disrupting events, expected or not, may impact where the future is headed? What are the most important and uncertain items facing us?
- Amongst the alternative futures is our Preferred Future. An aspirational vision, an image of the future. Where we want to aim. The guiding star we work towards even if we fall short.
- What do we do now? Implications of the futures, of these scenarios for the stakeholders leveraged for insight into issues and policies. We ask what issues are looming, conflicts or choices, whose resolution will impact and guide futures. These may be a “raw material for generating ideas.”
- It is a cycle, a feedback loop, iteration
- Foresight is multidisciplinary. It includes (and overlaps with) fields and practices such as Design Thinking. Craft responses to strategically respond to issues or opportunities suggested by scenarios.
- Systems feedback is another approach. The ecosystem has inputs and outputs. Foresighters are problem solvers. We operate in an ecosystem and can put leverage onto keystone species (stakeholders) to impact change.
- Scenarios are another foresight method. They leverage diverse perspectives. Not designed to be predictions, meant to expand thinking beyond business as usual. See the new Koppel book, and Kahane’s South Africa example. Sci-fi (creative scenarios about the future freed from demonstrable boundaries),
- Six Pillars is another foresight method. Brief overview. Similarities.
- Spiral dynamics is a model for exploring human development
- Cross Impact Analysis
- Creativity methods, strengths, structure, empowerment, as tool
- Big Questions. Analyze questions in depth from one method (Integral is great for this) then have each team member share and compare the topic from that method’s perspective.
- And applying measurements to alternative futures
- The story of “Island California.” When our maps were built upon and recapitulated an assumption. https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/rs814rm1327 Copyright © Stanford University. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. Image from the Glen McLaughlin Map Collection courtesy Stanford University Libraries. https://purl.stanford.edu/rs814rm1327
- “What is a futurist?” Houston Foresight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff0j5s8e1M0