Bottom-up time estimations techiques
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An overview of bottom-up time estimations techniques in project management.Download additional slides, videos, and resources at https://www.christiansonjs.com/ Signup for The Free-Range Technologist, a monthly newsletter filled with creative commons resources, useful apps, and lifehacks: https://mailchi.mp/f8f0219bc305/jscott
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Bottom-up time estimations techiques
- 1. Bottom-Up (Micro) • Single-Point Estimation • Three-Point Estimates • Multiple Estimators • Delphi Technique
- 2. 1. Have people familiar with the tasks make the estimate. 2. Use several people to make estimates. 3. Base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods, and a normal level of resources. 4. Use consistent time units in estimating task times. 5. Treat each task as independent, don’t aggregate. 6. Don’t make allowances for contingencies. 7. Adding a risk assessment helps avoid surprises to stakeholders. Estimating Guidelines for Times, Costs, and Resources
- 3. Single Point Estimation 30 Days to Complete How long will Task A take to complete? Bottom-up (Micro)
- 4. Three-Point Estimates How long will Task A take to complete? Optimistic (a) 20 days Most Likely (m) 30 days Pessimistic (b) 58 days
- 5. Three-Point Estimates Optimistic (a) 20 days Most Likely (m) 30 days Pessimistic (b) 58 days How long will Task A take to complete? 20 Days + 30 Days + 58 Days 3 Estimates = 36 days Triangular Distribution or simple average
- 6. Activity Time Calculations weighted average activity time =Te
- 7. Activity Time Calculations Te a + 4m + b 6 =
- 8. Three-Point Estimates How long will Task A take to complete? te 20+ 4*30 + 58 6 = Optimistic (a) 20 days Most Likely (m) 30 days Pessimistic (b) 58 days
- 9. Three-Point Estimates How long will Task A take to complete? te = 33.00 days Optimistic (a) 20 days Most Likely (m) 30 days Pessimistic (b) 58 days
- 10. Beta Distribution Optimistic (a) LikelinessorProbability—> Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) te
- 11. Beta Distribution Optimistic (a) LikelinessorProbability—> Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b) 33.00 days
- 12. Three-Point Estimates Estimated Project Duration: 243 days Probably that project will be done in 250 days: 74% PERT Analysis
- 13. Multiple Estimators Bottom Up Estimating Estimator 1 Estimator 2 Estimator 33 20 Days 30 Days 50 Days Bottom-up (Micro)
- 14. Multiple Estimators Bottom Up Estimating Estimator 1 Estimator 2 Estimator 33 20 Days 30 Days 50 Days Bottom-up (Micro)
- 15. Multiple Estimators Bottom Up Estimating 20 Days Estimator 1 Estimator 2 Estimator 33 20 Days + 30 Days + 50 Days 3 Estimators = 33.3 Days Bottom-up (Micro) 30 Days 50 Days
- 16. Delphi Technique
- 17. Multiple Estimators Estimator 1 Estimator 2 Estimator 3 30 days 3 Bottom-up (Micro)
- 18. Bottom-Up (Micro) • Single-Point Estimation • Three-Point Estimates • Multiple Estimators • Delphi Technique