These slides were prepared for the State of the City event in Belfast, Northern Ireland, in October 2012. They examine why we need to rethink urban policy in general, and city centres in particular, in the light of the challenges and opportunities we now face.

1. Stadtluft macht frei?
breathing life back into our cities

2. Events, dear boy, events...
How far can we predict the pace and impact of change? 1
The best laid masterplans
Do our visions create space for the unpredictable? 2
Beyond boom and bust?
What kind of world will our children inherit? 3
Ready, willing and able
How our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future 4
A pumping heart
Putting the city centre back where it belongs 5
Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?
The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market 6

3. Remember it’s only 20 years since...
The Maastricht The Church of The term Bob Dylan held
Treaty paved England voted ‘surfing the his 30th
the way for the for women internet’ was anniversary
Euro priests first recorded concert

4. How will we see life today in 20 years?
It is the next generation and the one after that, not this one, that
will judge the wisdom of the decisions we take for our cities
‣ In 1992 there were 26 web
servers online in the world.
How digitally connected will
we be in 2032?
‣ In 1992 London’s Baltic
Exchange was bombed. What
threats will we face in 2032?
‣ In 1992 Amazon.com didn’t
exist. How will we shop in
2032?
4

5. “We are probably nearing the
limit of all we can know
about astronomy.”
Simon Newcomb, astronomer, 1888

6. Events, dear boy, events...
How far can we predict the pace and impact of change? 1
The best laid masterplans
Do our visions create space for the unpredictable? 2
Beyond boom and bust?
What kind of world will our children inherit? 3
Ready, willing and able
How our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future 4
A pumping heart
Putting the city centre back where it belongs 5
Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?
The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market 6

7. Urban renaissance: a guide for wishful thinkers
Six steps to heaven (or, failing that, shopping and office nirvana)
Sit back and watch the market
6
work its magic (having invested
millions in public subsidy)
Spend years seeking
5
compulsory purchase of sites
you need to redevelop
Do deals with global retail
4
developers to create a shopping
centre with big-name
Create funky public spaces with anchor tenants
3
street art, fountains,
and bijou restaurants
Bring in a world-famous
2
architect to design a
Lament your city’s poor retail masterplan
offer, old offices and 1 (blobby buildings optional)
derelict warehouses

8. And here’s one they prepared earlier...
Bradford: from vision to disappointment to...?

9. Without the people, the vision perishes
The best plans are skeletons. It is the people of the city, working
together, who put flesh on the bones and bring them to life.
‣ Challenge 1: Investment. Is the old
model of property speculation and
rising land values broken?
‣ Challenge 2: Jobs. There are
17.4m jobseekers across the
eurozone, with another 4.5m job
losses predicted by the ILO.
‣ Challenge 3: Poverty. Patterns of
deprivation in UK cities have
proved resistant to successive
interventions.
9

10. “The government has made
global change our ally...”
‘Prosperous Places’, DCLG, 2007

11. Events, dear boy, events...
How far can we predict the pace and impact of change? 1
The best laid masterplans
Do our visions create space for the unpredictable? 2
Beyond boom and bust?
What kind of world will our children inherit? 3
Ready, willing and able
How our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future 4
A pumping heart
Putting the city centre back where it belongs 5
Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?
The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market 6

12. Civilisations don’t collapse, do they?
Are we witnessing the first generation of children in the UK
who have poorer life chances than their parents?
Consumers enjoy a standard of
living created by their predecessors
Empire builders use the without renewing the resources
advantages of power and they depend on. Production and
resources to expand their innovation decline
operations, keeping
competitors in client
relationships
Civilisations collapse from
within, through loss of
Pioneers and traders build energy and resources; and
settlements and markets, without, as others take over
producing new goods and territory and markets. What
services through exchange might be the triggers for us?
and innovation
Pioneers Traders Empire builders Consumers Survivors?

13. 5 risk factors facing our cities
Why we need to look beyond a narrative of deficit reduction
85% of the world’s By 2050, there will 5 October 2012:
ocean fisheries are be more people over Greek prime minister
fully exploited, over- the age of 60 in the compares effects of
exploited or world than children unemployment to
depleted under 15 1930s Germany
Scarcity Climate change Demographics Capital flight Political unrest
UK floods, 2007: Global investment
13 dead decisions are shifting:
7,000 businesses 2 of the world’s top 5
affected sovereign wealth funds
48,000 homes flooded are Chinese

14. “Climate change is affecting
the ocean in ways that we
are only beginning to
understand.”
World Bank, 2012

15. Events, dear boy, events...
How far can we predict the pace and impact of change? 1
The best laid masterplans
Do our visions create space for the unpredictable? 2
Beyond boom and bust?
What kind of world will our children inherit? 3
Ready, willing and able
How our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future 4
A pumping heart
Putting the city centre back where it belongs 5
Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?
The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market 6

16. Towards a sustainable city
Qualities for surviving and thriving in an unpredictable world
Key principles:
adaptable creative ‣ Living within environmental limits
AND
‣ Ensuring a strong, just and healthy
society AND
sustainable? ‣ Achieving a sustainable economy
AND
‣ Involving citizens in decision-
making AND
productive stewarding
‣ Using sound evidence to inform
our plans and actions

17. The city of the future is a city of social
and functional integration, cultural
diversity, accessible education, resource
conservation and regional dialogue.
(Freiburg Charter for sustainable urbanism)

18. “Human cleverness, desires,
motivations, imagination and
creativity are replacing
location, natural resources
and market access as urban
resources.”
Charles Landry, The Creative City (2000)

19. Events, dear boy, events...
How far can we predict the pace and impact of change? 1
The best laid masterplans
Do our visions create space for the unpredictable? 2
Beyond boom and bust?
What kind of world will our children inherit? 3
Ready, willing and able
How our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future 4
A pumping heart
Putting the city centre back where it belongs 5
Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?
The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market 6

20. How the city centre can shape the future
Creating space to breathe: the oxygen that keeps the city alive
Reviving Localising Inspiring Prioritising Greening the
the civic investment innovation production economy

21. “High streets and town
centres that are fit for the
21st century need to be
multifunctional social
centres, not simply
competitors for stretched
consumers.”
‘The 21st Century Agora’

22. Events, dear boy, events...
How far can we predict the pace and impact of change? 1
The best laid masterplans
Do our visions create space for the unpredictable? 2
Beyond boom and bust?
What kind of world will our children inherit? 3
Ready, willing and able
How our cities can be prepared for an uncertain future 4
A pumping heart
Putting the city centre back where it belongs 5
Never mind all that, what about the empty shops?
The end of retail-led regeneration, and a new role for the market 6

23. Can we shop our way to a better future?
Do we put demand back in the economy, or demand a better economy?
Retail-led Order can be Resilience is Access is Time is more
regeneration the enemy of the new better than important
is failing activity renaissance ownership than money

24. “The soul of the city - the
strength which makes it
breathe, exist and progress -
resides in each one of its
citizens.”
Jaime Lerner, mayor of Curitiba, Brazil