An explanation to answer the question "Will the singularity come in 2045?".

1. What man can do and
AI cannot.
--The expectation of “Singularity will come by 2045” is not plausible. --
Mizuhiro Kaimai

2. Model of a Simple Job
A simple job can be modelled generically as below.
If circumstances meet a specified
condition, then you should take a
specific action.
circumstances
condition
action
Job
2

3. Technological Definition of Job Model
The job model can be defined as a set of technological
elements as described below.
Functions which humans do in a job
can be categorized as those three types.
circumstances
condition
action
Job
observing
judging
manipulating
sensors
actuators
Technological
Elements
Devices for acquiring information of circumstances:
cameras, thermometers, ammeters, etc.
Devices which can control something outside of
them: motors, lights, speakers, etc.
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4. In the View of Interaction
Environments
observing
judging
manipulating
sensors
actuators
Technological Elements
The elements can be understood in a view of interaction with
outside environments as below.
These are the peripheral devices which
perform actual interaction with the
outside environments.
Then, they need to have physical
instruments.
These functions can be implemented as
software modules, no need to have
physical instruments.
Interaction
4

5. How Many Jobs Can AI Do?
observing
judging
manipulating
sensors
actuators
Technological Elements of “Job”
In the age without IT, man did all the below functions.
How many jobs can AI do?
However, AI technology have improved greatly and will
continue much more: some of the human roles will become
replaceable by AI technology.
5

6. What Kinds of Jobs Are Replaceable?
In order to solve the question, you have to think about an issue
so called “The Frame Problem”.
circumstances
condition
action
Job
observing
judging
manipulating
sensors
actuators
Technological
Elements
AI
A job with a clearly
defined frame …
… can be described in technical
languages and instruments.
So it can be implemented
by using AI.
In other words,
Only the job with a clear frame can be replaceable by AI.
However, you probably have another question:
What does the word “Frame” mean?
6

7. Example of “Frame”
The following figure shows two typical cases of jobs with a
clear frame and without it.
Weight of an egg
of chicken.
Between 58grams
and 64grams.
Classify it as
medium size.
circumstances
condition
action
Mission: classifying eggs by their
weight.
no clear definition
no clear definition
no clear definition
circumstances
condition
action
Mission: satisfying the customers of
a restaurant.
Job with a clear frame. Job without a clear frame.
Such jobs are replaceable with AI.
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8. Image of “Clear Frame”
You have to choose some essential attributes to define a clear
frame.
Weight of an egg
of chicken.
Clear frame.
Real object
Observable
attributes
Weight
Color
Shape
Hardness
Freshness
….etc.
Focuses on a few
attributes only.
Egg
Let’s call this “Framing”
Framing is an activity that selects some
valuable attributes among many.
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9. “Framing” in Other Words
Framing is an activity which restricts the range of awareness.
Real world gives you a lot of information like the all things shown
in the figure below.
However, what you have to look at now is just inside this frame.
9

10. Framing and AI
Thus, the relation between framing and AI can be illustrated as
below.
All acquirable information
Framing
job AI
Properly framed
data
Input
Technological
implementation
Properly framed data is acceptable as input to
a technological implementation (AI) of a job.
definition
Adequate definition is
needed for framing.
10

11. Developments of AI
job AI
Properly framed
data
Input
Technological
implementation
Several decades ago, computers could only do calculations.
could only do
calculations
numerical data rightly
formatted for calculationsDecades ago
can do a variety of
analyzing and
operation
Non numerical data, such
as text, images, sounds
and so on are acceptable
Nowadays
The developments of AI
technologies have enabled…
11

12. Human Jobs are Too Complicated
The human job, as is entirely, is too complicated to implement
the use of AI. However, if you break it down into micro jobs,
there are some which can be converted into AI.
Human job
(complicated)
job
job
job
job
job
job AI
job AI
job
job
job
break down convert to AI
orchestration of them is other
issue of practical AI adaptation to
industry.
Let’s call this approach as “Micro jobs strategy”
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13. Decline of Workers
It is difficult to replace human job entirely with AI, but the
amount of human workers needed will certainly decline.
Human job
(complicated)
job AI
job AI
job
job
job
decline
4 workers 2 workers
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14. Orchestration
Change of Skill Requirements
Micro job strategy requires human workers with skills of
orchestrating the micro jobs.
job AI
job AI
job
job
job
Communications between humans and AI must
be performed explicitly by definite language.
Thus, human workers must have much higher
intellectual skills than before.
14

15. Designing AI Based Process
This figure shows elements necessary for designing AI based
process for a specific problem.
problem
All acquirable information
Framing
Properly framed
data
Input
job AI
job AI
job AIjob AI
job AI
job AI
job AI
job AI
definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition
definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition
definitiondefinitiondefinition
definition
job AI
job AI
job AI
Process Designing
(What humans have to do)
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A set of useful job AI modules
for a specific problem
All of available job AI modules
(extremely huge varieties)
Frame definitions are correspondent
to individual job AI modules
(extremely huge varieties)
AI module libraryFrame definitions
Problem Specific Modules

16. What Man Have To Do is …
“Process Designing” involves some complicated tasks which
need human heuristic ability.
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(1) Understanding all information
related to a specific problem
(3) Selecting suitable AI modules
and connecting them.
(2) Deciding what frames are suitable
for the problem.
problem
Framing
Properly framed
data Input
job AI
job AI
job AIjob AI
job AI
job AI
job AI
job AI
definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition
definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition
definitiondefinitiondefinition
definition
job AI
job AI
job AI
Process Designing
(What humans have to do)
AI module libraryFrame definitions
Problem Specific Modules
Will AI be able to do these heuristic tasks in the future?
If yes, that means it is a strong AI.

17. Can AI Find Proper Frames by Itself?
If there could be a strong AI, which can think in the same way
as man, it will need to find proper frames by itself.
However, none of the current AI technologies can do that.
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problem
Framing
Properly framed
data Input
job AI
job AI
job AIjob AI
job AI
job AI
job AI
job AI
definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition
definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition
definitiondefinitiondefinition
definition
job AI
job AI
job AI
Strong AI
AI module libraryFrame definitions
Problem Specific Modules
Current AI technology can work only in this domain.
Still there are no clues of these “heuristic” functions of the human brain.
Thus, the expectation that “Singularity will come by 2045” is not
plausible.