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Search Marketers’ Guide to Our New Robot Overlords #stateofsearch

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It's no secret that automation, machine learning, artificial intelligence and maybe even robots are going to completely change the world of work in the next decade. And it's already playing a role in how Google works.

So how can we humble homo-sapiens prepare ourselves for our new robot overloads?

By learning from the past. I'll take you through stories of success and failures of interactions between the robots and the humans and leave you with a practical approach to avoid search marketing extinction.

Published in: Business
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Search Marketers’ Guide to Our New Robot Overlords #stateofsearch

  1. 1. Search Marketers’ Guide to Our New Robot Overlords @KelvinNewman - State of Search, 2016
  2. 2. @kelvinnewman So, who is this guy? @kelvinnewman
  3. 3. Founder of BrightonSEO @kelvinnewman kelvin@brightonseo.com http://www.slideshare.net/kelvinnewman Kelvin Newman
  4. 4. @kelvinnewman I’m from the United Kingdom @kelvinnewman
  5. 5. @kelvinnewman In the seaside resort of Brighton @kelvinnewman
  6. 6. @kelvinnewman Actually; I live in Worthing
  7. 7. @kelvinnewman Which is famous for one thing… @kelvinnewman Birdman Competition where people see how far they can jump of the pier
  8. 8. @kelvinnewman Room above the pub I started organising a meet up in the upstairs room of this pub @kelvinnewman
  9. 9. @kelvinnewman And 3500 people came along to the last one @kelvinnewman
  10. 10. @kelvinnewman Because I organise an SEO conference I spend more time than is healthy thinking about what SEO is really about * this isn’t actually me thinking about the future of search, I’m reading my emails, but it makes me look moody and enigmatic
  11. 11. @kelvinnewman Consequently, I’m really interested in how technology works
  12. 12. @kelvinnewman But I’m most interested in the people who use technology @kelvinnewman
  13. 13. @kelvinnewman And the impact that technology has on people. @kelvinnewman
  14. 14. @kelvinnewman I also spend a lot of time assembling stupid stuff I bought of eBay
  15. 15. @kelvinnewman But I got told that’d be a boring topic for a talk though…
  16. 16. @kelvinnewman So what is this presentation about? @kelvinnewman
  17. 17. @kelvinnewman Well, this presentation isn’t about… @kelvinnewman
  18. 18. @kelvinnewman If you spend fifteen minutes doing this you’ll get seventy billion links “ “ It’s more about getting you to think differently about the future. And the impact technology has on people.
  19. 19. @kelvinnewman It will introduce you to our new marketing robot overlords
  20. 20. @kelvinnewman Most of the SEO talks about AI, Machine Learning, robots, etc. focus on the search engine,
  21. 21. @kelvinnewman Not the search engine optimizer
  22. 22. @kelvinnewman I want to talk about both.
  23. 23. @kelvinnewman When we talk about robot overlords you probably think of things like…
  24. 24. @kelvinnewman@kelvinnewman
  25. 25. @kelvinnewman@kelvinnewman
  26. 26. @kelvinnewman
  27. 27. @kelvinnewman Or the scariest robot of all, one that will send shivers down your spine and give you nightmares.
  28. 28. @kelvinnewman
  29. 29. @kelvinnewman But the ones that should the ones that should really scare us look very different. @kelvinnewman
  30. 30. @kelvinnewman@kelvinnewman
  31. 31. @kelvinnewman Or don’t even really look like robots at all @kelvinnewman
  32. 32. @kelvinnewman So why should I be scared @kelvinnewman
  33. 33. @kelvinnewman Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England He’s not a robot you should be scared of. 
 But his organisation is behind a report that scared me.
  34. 34. @kelvinnewman Taking the probabilities of automation, and multiplying them by the numbers employed, gives a broad brush estimate of the number of jobs potentially automatable. For the UK, that would suggest up to 15 million jobs could be at risk of automation. In the US, the corresponding figure would be 80 million jobs. “ “ Andy Haldane Chief Economist at the Bank of England
  35. 35. @kelvinnewman Is 15 Million a lot of Brits though? @kelvinnewman
  36. 36. @kelvinnewman Hands up who’s birthday is between Jan 1st and May 2nd? @kelvinnewman
  37. 37. @kelvinnewman Sorry the robot’s taken your job. @kelvinnewman
  38. 38. @kelvinnewman That’s about a third of the population who’s job is at risk due to “robots”
  39. 39. @kelvinnewman oops I made a mistake 15 million is a third of the population, but actually about half of the working population
  40. 40. @kelvinnewman That’s 30 times as many U.S jobs as lost in the 2008 financial crash @kelvinnewman
  41. 41. @kelvinnewman
  42. 42. @kelvinnewman@kelvinnewman OK, breathe, I don’t flip burgers in McDonald’s so I’m alright?!?
  43. 43. @kelvinnewman http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf Perception & Manipulation Creative Intelligence Social Intelligence Frey and Osborne have examined how susceptible jobs are to computerisation
  44. 44. @kelvinnewman Three types of task Perception & Manipulation Robots are still unable to match the depth and breadth of human perception. Tasks that relate to an unstructured work environment can make jobs less susceptible to computerisation. Creative Intelligence The psychological processes underlying human creativity are difficult to specify. The principal obstacle to computerising creativity is stating our creative values sufficiently clearly that they can be encoded in an program. Social Intelligence Human social intelligence is important in a wide range of work tasks, such as those involving negotiation, persuasion and care. The realtime recognition of natural human emotion remains a challenging problem.
  45. 45. @kelvinnewman Things people are good at… Tasks requiring perception in unstructured environments. Creative tasks which rely both on novelty and value. Non-routine social tasks which rely on hard to articulate “common sense” Things machines are good at… Routine tasks in structured environments. Tasks which require novelty and experimentation. Analysis at a speed and scale.
  46. 46. @kelvinnewman http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/speech864.pdf
  47. 47. @kelvinnewman What do I actually mean by robots? @kelvinnewman
  48. 48. @kelvinnewman Automation by hardware Where routine tasks are carried out by a machine rather than a human. @kelvinnewman
  49. 49. @kelvinnewman New Holland CR10.90 @kelvinnewman GPS guided, touchscreen controlled, airplane-style joystick ... and yes, a fridge and cup holder
  50. 50. @kelvinnewman These sort of things probably won’t affect “us” i.e. people who muck about all day in front of a computer @kelvinnewman
  51. 51. @kelvinnewman Automation by software Where routine tasks are carried out by software rather than a human. @kelvinnewman
  52. 52. @kelvinnewman https://ifttt.com/recipes/search?q=discover+weekly
  53. 53. @kelvinnewman https://zapier.com/
  54. 54. @kelvinnewman https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/twitter-archiver/pkanpfekacaojdncfgbjadedbggbbphi?hl=en https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/twitter-archiver/pkanpfekacaojdncfgbjadedbggbbphi?hl=en
  55. 55. @kelvinnewman Answer the Public scrapes and probes Google Suggest answerthepublic.com
  56. 56. @kelvinnewman These sort of things aren’t sexy But are likely to have the biggest most immediate impact on your life. @kelvinnewman
  57. 57. @kelvinnewman Machine learning is sexy And Artificial Intelligence, Deep Learning and other sort of related things along those lines. @kelvinnewman
  58. 58. @kelvinnewman Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Deep Learning What’s the difference between https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/07/29/whats-difference-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-deep-learning-ai/
  59. 59. @kelvinnewman I studied media studies at Uni not computer science or anything like it… Now feels like a good time to share @kelvinnewman
  60. 60. @kelvinnewman Computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages. What is artificial intelligence? @kelvinnewman
  61. 61. @kelvinnewman The wide availability of GPUs that make parallel processing ever faster, cheaper, and more powerful. All aided by practically infinite storage and a flood of data sources. Why AI has exploded? @kelvinnewman
  62. 62. @kelvinnewman There’s three levels of artificial intelligence in rising levels of nightmarish-ness Difference between narrow, general and super intelligence
  63. 63. @kelvinnewman AI that specializes in one area. There’s AI that can beat the world chess champion in chess, but that’s the only thing it does. Ask it to figure out a better way to store data on a hard drive, and it’ll look at you blankly. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
  64. 64. @kelvinnewman A computer that is as smart as a human across the board—a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can. Creating AGI is a much harder task than creating ANI, and we’re yet to do it. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
  65. 65. @kelvinnewman Mustafa Suleyman Our mission is to solve general intelligence “ “
  66. 66. @kelvinnewman Artificial Superintelligence ranges from a computer that’s just a little smarter than a human to one that’s trillions of times smarter—across the board. Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)
  67. 67. @kelvinnewman ASI is likely to either mean we become immortal or face extinction @kelvinnewman
  68. 68. @kelvinnewman The 24k words on AI on this blog will literally blow your mind http://waitbutwhy.com/ 2015/01/artificial- intelligence- revolution-1.html
  69. 69. @kelvinnewman But enough of the sci-fi dystopia stufff
  70. 70. @kelvinnewman Machine Learning Machine Learning at its most basic is the practice of using algorithms to parse data, learn from it, and then make a determination or prediction about something in the world. So rather than hand-coding software routines with a specific set of instructions to accomplish a particular task, the machine is “trained” using large amounts of data and algorithms that give it the ability to learn how to perform the task.
  71. 71. @kelvinnewman Deep Learning A branch of machine learning based on a set of algorithms that attempt to model high level abstractions in data by using a deep graph with multiple processing layers, composed of multiple linear and non-linear transformations.
  72. 72. @kelvinnewman
  73. 73. https://www.flickr.com/photos/61408718@N02/6333712753/ When Robots impressed me
  74. 74. @kelvinnewman That previous slide was made by slidebot.io 25,352,683 images combine with 10,000+ design rules and 237 unique layout styles to create one powerful presentation.
  75. 75. @kelvinnewman
  76. 76. @kelvinnewman The rest of the slides I made myself. But could the machine of done better?
  77. 77. @kelvinnewman
  78. 78. @kelvinnewman
  79. 79. @kelvinnewman Spotify’s key staff share how it works https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=qhYlmnqSDV0&index=7&list=PLSRBXQp3FvKJa4J5ZlKsupg189WJ4YhYc
  80. 80. @kelvinnewman Beatles artificial intelligence Flow Machine - Daddy’s Car http://www.flow-machines.com/ai-makes-pop-music/ A Beatles-esque song written by artificial intelligence @kelvinnewman
  81. 81. @kelvinnewman To me it sounds more like the Beach Boys than the Beatles, but still hugely impressive
  82. 82. @kelvinnewman https://github.com/david-gpu/srez A Neural Networks that can reconstruct Pixelated faces
  83. 83. @kelvinnewman An Artificial Intelligence that finds art like current news photos http://recognition.tate.org.uk/
  84. 84. @kelvinnewman Newspaper sports reports are often generated by machines Friona fell 10-8 to Boys Ranch in five innings on Monday at Friona despite racking up seven hits and eight runs. Friona was led by a flawless day at the dish by Hunter Sundre, who went 2-2 against Boys Ranch pitching. Sundre singled in the third inning and tripled in the fourth inning … Friona piled up the steals, swiping eight bags in all … https://www.wired.com/2012/04/can-an-algorithm-write-a-better-news-story-than-a-human-reporter/
  85. 85. @kelvinnewman The software also generate natural language Google Analytics Reports. https://www.narrativescience.com/quill-engage
  86. 86. @kelvinnewman IBM Watson and cancer treatments http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/technology/ibm-is- counting-on-its-bet-on-watson-and-paying-big-money-for- it.html?_r=0
  87. 87. @kelvinnewman At the University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Watson was tested on 1,000 cancer diagnoses made by human experts. In 99 percent of them, Watson recommended the same treatment as the oncologists. In 30 percent of the cases, Watson also found a treatment option the human doctors missed. Some treatments were based on research papers that the doctors had not read — more than 160,000 cancer research papers are published a year.
  88. 88. @kelvinnewman Eliza simulated conversation by using a 'pattern matching' and substitution methodology that gave users an illusion of understanding on the part of the program, but had no built in framework for contextualizing events. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA Eliza the 1960s rubbish robot people loved
  89. 89. @kelvinnewman https://theringer.com/meet-the-man-who-created-a-virtually-immortal-joey- tribbiani-21b910295b1f#.ykixtfnhz A video chat bot that generates new lines for Joey from friends
  90. 90. @kelvinnewman When the robots disappointed me
  91. 91. When 30 of the US’s biggest companies lost 9% of their value for no apparently caused by algorithmic trading May 2010 Flash Crash I did a whole deck about the the implications of the flashcrash on how we think about SEO http://bit.ly/flashcrashlessons
  92. 92. @kelvinnewmanhttps://blog.arik.io/facebook-m-the-anti-turing-test-74c5af19987c#.mq0ix93r2 Facebook’s Fake Robots Their AI Assistants sometimes are actually people
  93. 93. @kelvinnewman http://arstechnica.co.uk/business/2016/09/at-the-bleeding-edge-of-ai-quantum-grocery-picking-and-transfer-learning/ Everything but packing the bag Ocado have automated nearly every aspect of their business apart from packing the shopping bags @kelvinnewman
  94. 94. @kelvinnewman There’s software used across the country to predict future criminals. And it’s racist. https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal- sentencing
  95. 95. @kelvinnewman Should we resist and fight back?
  96. 96. @kelvinnewman https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ William_Lee_(inventor) Elizabeth 1st refused patent for knitting machine out of fear it would cause mass unemployment
  97. 97. @kelvinnewman http://www.slate.com/articles/business/ the_dismal_science/1997/01/ the_accidental_theorist.html Technology tends to ultimately displace rather than completely replace jobs.
  98. 98. @kelvinnewman Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works. Douglas Adams @kelvinnewman
  99. 99. @kelvinnewman Anything that’s invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it. Douglas Adams @kelvinnewman
  100. 100. @kelvinnewman Anything invented after you’re thirty-five is against the natural order of things. Douglas Adams @kelvinnewman
  101. 101. @kelvinnewman I’m 33, so I hoping the rate of change slows down a bit
  102. 102. @kelvinnewman So what are the actions? @kelvinnewman
  103. 103. Things you can do when you get back to the office… @kelvinnewman
  104. 104. @kelvinnewman Panic! and drink
  105. 105. @kelvinnewman Buy shares in Uber, Amazon and Google @kelvinnewman
  106. 106. @kelvinnewman OK, here’s some serious advice @kelvinnewman
  107. 107. @kelvinnewman Never do a job a machine could do quicker Or better than you… @kelvinnewman
  108. 108. @kelvinnewman Examine the rough edges and the exceptions to the rules. @kelvinnewman
  109. 109. @kelvinnewman
  110. 110. @kelvinnewman
  111. 111. @kelvinnewman
  112. 112. @kelvinnewman
  113. 113. @kelvinnewman Stay ten minutes ahead of Google @kelvinnewman
  114. 114. @kelvinnewman Use the tech before it becomes part of the core algo @kelvinnewman
  115. 115. @kelvinnewman Google are taking machine learning for image recognition seriously
  116. 116. @kelvinnewman
  117. 117. @kelvinnewman image recognition open source GoogleBrain have released their image captioning system available as an open source model in TensorFlow. https://research.googleblog.com/2016/09/show-and-tell-image-captioning-open.html
  118. 118. @kelvinnewman https://research.googleblog.com/2016/09/introducing-open-images-dataset.html Released a huge learning set of images - a dataset consisting of ~9 million URLs to images that have been annotated with labels spanning over 6000 categories
  119. 119. @kelvinnewman Is it part of the core algorithm
  120. 120. @kelvinnewman Probably not
  121. 121. @kelvinnewman Will it be?
  122. 122. @kelvinnewman Certainly
  123. 123. @kelvinnewman Is the lag an opportunity?
  124. 124. @kelvinnewman Certainly
  125. 125. @kelvinnewman How much could you improve you alt text on your website if you ran your images through this captioning system?
  126. 126. @kelvinnewman Use some off the shelf options
  127. 127. @kelvinnewman Altify Uses deep learning to caption images in an HTML file and fills out its alternative text attributes with the related caption https://github.com/ParhamP/altify @kelvinnewman
  128. 128. @kelvinnewman https://algorithmia.com/ A marketplace for algorithms
  129. 129. @kelvinnewman
  130. 130. @kelvinnewman
  131. 131. @kelvinnewman Tutorials on use Machine Learning on over 1M hotel reviews finds interesting insights https://blog.monkeylearn.com/machine-learning-1m-hotel-reviews-finds-interesting-insights
  132. 132. @kelvinnewman Leave you with a final thought @kelvinnewman
  133. 133. @kelvinnewman Your job is to be Luke Skywalker Inexplicably understand the robots when nobody else can “ “
  134. 134. @kelvinnewman@kelvinnewman
  135. 135. Thanks for listening Kelvin Newman - Founder of BrightonSEO @kelvinnewman kelvin@brightonseo.com http://www.slideshare.net/kelvinnewman

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