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Inflation & unemployment
Inflation & Phillips curve: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Causes of Inflation: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Demand pull : Increase in AD can be due to a fiscal or monetary policy, thus increasing prices
Cost push: Upward shift of the AS will be due to increase in costs due to increase in price of inputs.
Stagflation: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Combination of both:
Costs of inflation: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Philips Curve: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Phillips Curve: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Wage growth % (Inflation) Unemployment (%) The Phillips Curve shows an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. It suggested that if governments wanted to reduce unemployment it had to accept higher inflation as a trade-off. Money illusion – wage rates rising but individuals not factoring in inflation on real wage rates. 1.5% 6% 4% 2.5% PC1
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long run Phillips curve: ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],The Philips Curve Unemployment Long Run PC PC1 PC2 PC3 Assume the economy starts with an inflation rate of 1% but very high unemployment at 7%. Government takes measures to reduce unemployment by an expansionary fiscal policy that pushes AD to the right (see the AD/AS diagram on slide 15)  7% 2.0% 1.0% There is a short term fall in unemployment but at a cost of higher inflation. Individuals now base their wage negotiations on expectations of higher inflation in the next period. If higher wages are granted then firms costs rise – they start to shed labour and unemployment creeps back up to 7% again. 3.0% To counter the rise in unemployment, government once again injects resources into the economy – the result is a short-term fall in unemployment but higher inflation. This higher inflation fuels further expectation of higher inflation and so the process continues. The long run Phillips Curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. This is how economists have explained the movements in the Phillips Curve and it is termed the  Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve.
[object Object],[object Object]
Countering inflation: Demand -pull Reduce demand by higher taxation, lower govt. expenditure, lower govt borrowing, higher interest rates Cost push Take steps to reduce production costs by deregulating labour markets, encouraging greater productivity, apply control over wages and prices Import factors reduce quantity of imports or their prices via trade policies.
Controlling inflation (cont) Excessive growth on money supply Reduce money supply by cutting down on public sector borrowing Funding Govt borrowing from non bank Reduce bank lending Maintain interest rates Expectations of inflation Pursue policies which indicate Govt’s determination to reduce inflation
Types of Unemployment: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Types of Unemployment: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Okun’s Law: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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InflationUnemploymentRelationship

  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Demand pull : Increase in AD can be due to a fiscal or monetary policy, thus increasing prices
  • 5. Cost push: Upward shift of the AS will be due to increase in costs due to increase in price of inputs.
  • 6.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Countering inflation: Demand -pull Reduce demand by higher taxation, lower govt. expenditure, lower govt borrowing, higher interest rates Cost push Take steps to reduce production costs by deregulating labour markets, encouraging greater productivity, apply control over wages and prices Import factors reduce quantity of imports or their prices via trade policies.
  • 17. Controlling inflation (cont) Excessive growth on money supply Reduce money supply by cutting down on public sector borrowing Funding Govt borrowing from non bank Reduce bank lending Maintain interest rates Expectations of inflation Pursue policies which indicate Govt’s determination to reduce inflation
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.